Where Are They Now? The Twins' Last 10 First-Round Draft Picks

Great post! It really shows what bad decisions can lead to.  Its quite obvious that the first round picks (decision) is getting fine tuned as this FO has gained experience. A few more good choices over the next couple years, and we will continue to supply young studs for the next decade to MLB and stay competitive against the big spenders.
I am a bit surprised that the comp picks before round 2 weren’t included as they essentially are a late first round pick…. But thats just nitpicking perhaps. 
Its also perhaps too early to congratulate the FO on the ‘22 &’23 picks but wowza if they are the next 2 building blocks of a championship team! 

Thanks for the interesting summary of the picks. The MLB draft is definitely an inexact science so to see about half of these guys hit the majors actually surprised me. 

Drafting is an inexact science, but drafting in the top half of the first round should dramatically increase your keeper rate. Drafting a player in the 1st round who will not make it to MLB is a huge blunder. With the emphasis on payroll, your only success can only come from the draft or adept trades. Now that the Twins are in playoff contention and down the draft list,  scouting and development become significantly more important.

22 minutes ago, saviking said:

If I remember correctly, Keoni Cavaco was that shiny object darting up the draft board just before draft day .. I wonder how the few guys predicted to be picked at that spot fared? 

Corbin Carrol is that guy. Sadly not on the Twins roster.

18 minutes ago, saviking said:

If I remember correctly, Keoni Cavaco was that shiny object darting up the draft board just before draft day .. I wonder how the few guys predicted to be picked at that spot fared? 

I remember it well.  I was watching on-line and as the Twins pick approached, I was hoping Bryson Stot or Corbin Carroll would be available.  They were at the top of the best available according to most baseball reporters.  I hated the Cavaco pick and grew to hate it more as Carroll rose to a top 3 prospect.  This was their greatest 1st round pick blunder.  You don't take a shot at someone like Cavaco with Carroll and Stot  available.

Who has been the most disappointing  is an easy question to answer ....

Cavaco and Sabato  ...  sounds like Jay was also a disappointment  for the Twins but still living the dream with the Mets minor leagues ...

Who will shine in 2024 , Lewis  , kiriloff if healthy  , and at some point in time Lee  ...

Larnach I hope he got some instructions this off season  on how to hit the off speed pitches , this is definitely his last season as a twin unless there is a break out .... 

Gordon needs a good spring , but could be traded .... 

I think the Cavaco pick is the most disappointing one; it really sets you back when you blow a top 10 pick and Cavaco was pretty high risk and has basically shown nothing his whole professional career. He's 22 and never played a game above A ball, and hasn't developed into a player that has any kind of future. Without the top 10 pick mantle, I'm not sure he'd still be with the organization.

Sabato looks like a bust, but I have a little mercy for the messed up draft year of 2020, and he's a late round pick which has a lot more variance. Sabato has also at least shown the occasional flash of the kind of hitting ability and power potential the Twins drafted him for, even if it seems unlikely he'll put it together. 

The Tyler Jay pick...that was the kind of pick that showed it was time for a real front office overhaul, because the idea of taking a college reliever with a top 10 pick with the idea of making him a starter was a little whackadoodle from the jump and there were certainly plenty of other options with that pick. With that craziness in the mix, it's harder to call Jay as disappointing as Cavaco, because what the heck were we supposed to expect when the front office swerves so hard with the development of the player?

Gordon hasn't developed the way you'd hop at that top 10 pick would go, but he has gotten to MLB and put up a decent season. His development got seriously messed up by injuries/medical issues that took a long time to iron out. I have a lot more sympathy for that, because it's certainly not like Gordon wanted to have medical problems that made it problematic for him to keep weight on.

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the Cavaco pick is the most disappointing one; it really sets you back when you blow a top 10 pick and Cavaco was pretty high risk and has basically shown nothing his whole professional career. He's 22 and never played a game above A ball, and hasn't developed into a player that has any kind of future. Without the top 10 pick mantle, I'm not sure he'd still be with the organization.

Sabato looks like a bust, but I have a little mercy for the messed up draft year of 2020, and he's a late round pick which has a lot more variance. Sabato has also at least shown the occasional flash of the kind of hitting ability and power potential the Twins drafted him for, even if it seems unlikely he'll put it together. 

The Tyler Jay pick...that was the kind of pick that showed it was time for a real front office overhaul, because the idea of taking a college reliever with a top 10 pick with the idea of making him a starter was a little whackadoodle from the jump and there were certainly plenty of other options with that pick. With that craziness in the mix, it's harder to call Jay as disappointing as Cavaco, because what the heck were we supposed to expect when the front office swerves so hard with the development of the player?

Gordon hasn't developed the way you'd hop at that top 10 pick would go, but he has gotten to MLB and put up a decent season. His development got seriously messed up by injuries/medical issues that took a long time to iron out. I have a lot more sympathy for that, because it's certainly not like Gordon wanted to have medical problems that made it problematic for him to keep weight on.

Just a nitpick but Cavaco was not a top 10 pick.  He was 13th but your point remains valid given there were a couple great options staring at them as they chose Cavaco.

I'm honestly surprised how many have turned into serviceable MLB players. I'm curious how that compares to other teams. Though the first half of R1 is far different than the 27th overall pick. People place too much stock in rounds.

Just scanning baseball reference, I’m a bit surprised at the low hit rate on first rounders, even top 10. At best only 50% of the top 10 and 30% of the entire first round turn into solid major league players or better. (Most of the stars are drafted early in the first round however.)

The Twins have had 7 top 10 picks in the last 12 years (including Buxton and Kohl Stewart) and had 4 in a row from 2012-2015. Terry Ryan only went 1 for 4, The early returns on Falvey/Levine look much better on the last three top 10s, but I know it’s still early.

I think because of the improving quality of major college baseball conferences that scouting directors are placing their level of competition comparable to AA baseball.  That changes a lot of drafting strategy because you are looking at high school players needing 4-5 years in the minors normally, all the way to major collegiate juniors/seniors needing 1-2 years. FO personnel who are feeling the heat will be more prone to draft players needing 1-2 years to reach MLB, while successful programs can choose the best players and allow them time to work through the minors.

2 hours ago, Paul D said:

I think because of the improving quality of major college baseball conferences that scouting directors are placing their level of competition comparable to AA baseball. 

Maybe A ball, but not close to AA.

A player like Brooks Lee was judged to be the singular best hitting college player two years ago but started in the rookie league and then on to A and AA. Dylan Crews started in R league and then went to A and AA this past year. These are the very best college players. The Twins drafted a ton of really good college pitchers in 2022 and they spent last season in A ball. Teams like LSU could not compete in an A+ league.

Baseball is a difficult profession and it takes time to learn and practice the skills. Projecting who will be good is really difficult.  

The pick of Cavaco was strange because he was picked as a shortstop because of his physical talent but had problems in high school at third base and did not blow many people away in his SoCal play. The Twins were enamored with his physique and liked his personality. 

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

So a player who has clearly mastered the game at the college level gets placed at AAA the day after he signs?  I don't recall that happening.

Sorry if I made it seem that way.  I was trying to say that many of the top choices in the draft who came out of good conferences may end up playing AA ball their first year.  Of the top 14 picks for 2023 #1 Paul Skenes (LSU) pitched in AA, also #2 pick Dylan Crews (LSU) played in AA, #3 Max Clark was a HS pick, #4 pick Wyatt Langford (Florida) made it to AAA, #5 Walker Jenkins was a HS pick, #6 pick Jacob Wilson played JC, #7 Rhett Lowder came out of Wake Forest as a pitcher and did not play any minor league games, #8 was Blake Mitchell a HS draftee, #9 was Chase Dollander out of Tennesee was a pitcher who didn't play in the minors, #10 Noble Meyer was a HS pitcher, #11 was Nolan Schanuel from Florida Atlantic who actually played Rookie, A, AA and finally 29 games with the Angels, #12 was Tommy Troy (Stanford) played Rookie and A+, #13 Matt Shaw (Maryland) made it to AA and #14 Kyle Teel from Virginia made it to AA.  In just about all the cases of players who reached AA they only played a handful of games at both Rookie and A or A+.

Of course this is the cream of the draft, but you can anticipate that if your team has a pick in the top half of the draft and are college juniors or seniors, that they may end the season in AA or higher.  Also teams are being cautious with college pitchers and some teams will not assign them to a minor league team if they feel they have already pitched a sufficient number of innings while in college.

Sorry that I didn't make my comment clear.

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe A ball, but not close to AA.

A player like Brooks Lee was judged to be the singular best hitting college player two years ago but started in the rookie league and then on to A and AA. Dylan Crews started in R league and then went to A and AA this past year. These are the very best college players. The Twins drafted a ton of really good college pitchers in 2022 and they spent last season in A ball. Teams like LSU could not compete in an A+ league.

Baseball is a difficult profession and it takes time to learn and practice the skills. Projecting who will be good is really difficult.  

The pick of Cavaco was strange because he was picked as a shortstop because of his physical talent but had problems in high school at third base and did not blow many people away in his SoCal play. The Twins were enamored with his physique and liked his personality. 

Hi, just clarified my comment to an earlier post. I was commenting on the best players coming out of college programs and where they may end up after spending a few weeks in lower classifications.  Interestingly pick #11 Nolan Schanuel did make it to MLB with the Angles for over 100 AB's. Sorry that I didn't make myself clearer.

20 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Corbin Carrol is that guy. Sadly not on the Twins roster.

And too bad we didn't go pitching the following year and get Bobby Miller. How different this team would look with Miller and Carrol holding down 2 spots.  Don't know how the Dodgers do it, but they sure seem to hit on a high % of late first round picks

It's impossible to get every draft pick right. While there are a few absolute busts there, we have also got some top talent there. Royce Lewis could be an MVP candidate in 2024 if he stays healthy (which I can't see why not), Got to credit the Twins scouting setup for advising picking him over Greene and Gore. Twins must have been tempted to take one of those two - Lewis was not the clear number 1 pick at the time. 

Jenkins - one of the easiest picks ever. Being number 5 meant the Twins simply selected whoever was left out of Langford, Clark and Jenkins (Skenes and Crews were never making it to 5). The way Jenkins is going, he could turn out to be the best of the 3, if not all 4 of those hitters. Would have been a number 1 pick in most drafts.

Brooks Lee - a strong spring could see him start the year with the Twins. Big reason why I would rather we trade Polanco over Kepler. If he's not quite ready Julien or Farmer (assuming he's not traded either) could fill in while he fine tunes his bat at AAA.

Larnach and AK - jury still out due to injuries. AK certainly has the talent but he needs to stay on the field! Larnach has a lower ceiling and more of a fourth outfielder type player. 

Looking back at the 2014 MLB draft, the Nick Gordon pick was a big miss at #5.  Aaron Nola drafted at #7, Michael Conforto drafted at #10, and Trea Turner drafted at #13...  Oof.