The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 2 (11-15)

[Nick Nelson]

In the next installment of our annual countdown of the top 20 Twins player assets, we highlight our choices for the 11th- through 15th-most indispensable pieces in the franchise's championship vision heading into 2024.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, Matt Blewett, Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Tuesday's intro post, but the short version is this: We're answering the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, I account for age, contract, controllability, upside, and more. 

Here's where I landed with my selections for the list so far in Part 1 (16-20):

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP

And now, the choices for Nos. 11 through 15 on this year's list.

15. Louie Varland, RHP
2023 Ranking: 19

Varland is stuck in the middle, from a player-evaluation standpoint: is he a solid back-end starter option or a top-tier multi-inning relief weapon? He's shown the ability to do both so far, but it's possible we haven't seen all the 26-year-old has to offer.

If he can channel any semblance of the pure dominance he flashed during his late relief stint in returning to a rotation role, Varland could quickly grow into a hugely valuable asset as a mid-rotation starter with five years of team control. But having the fallback option to act as a phenomenal bullpen arm helps elevate him in these rankings, as does his track record of excellent durability.

14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
2023 Ranking: 5

The long-tenured Twins infielder has been a staple near the top of these rankings ever since I started putting them together in 2018, ranking in the top seven every year and topping out at No. 1 in 2020. The consistent production he's been known for was back on display when he played last year, as Polanco posted a 115 OPS+ in the regular season and delivered a signature clutch homer in the ALDS.

There are several factors contributing to his stark drop on this list. In part, it's because he's getting older (30) and his team control is dwindling, with only one team option remaining after 2024 (though his price tag continues to be very budget-friendly). There's also the emergence of abundant quality depth behind him on the second-base depth chart, with Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis all in that mix. Most of all though, it's the health concerns. Polanco played only 80 games in 2023, as he experienced a number of setbacks with his chronically problematic lower body. Even when playing, he often did not appear to have a good base underneath him. At this moment, it's just very hard to trust in his durability and longevity.

13. Marco Raya, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR

When you're talking about baseball players as organizational assets, it is imperative to give starting pitching prospects who are highly regarded a significant boost because of how valuable quality, cost-controlled rotation fixtures are from a team-building standpoint. We all know how difficult and expensive it is to go out and find good MLB pitchers on the open market.

Of course, the flip side is that pitching prospects tend to carry a higher share of burnout risk, and Raya has some of those volatile attributes. He's a high-school pitcher drafted late who has a small sample of pro experience (127 IP), and hasn't really been challenged from a workload standpoint. Still, Raya has done enough to mitigate a lot of the perceived risk by posting consistently stellar numbers in that sample and reaching Double A by the age of 20. Next year will tell us a lot about what we can realistically expect for his future role.

12. Matt Wallner, RF
2023 Ranking: 20

A year ago, Wallner was on the fringe of this list, despite earning Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors, because his skill set is so polarizing. Corner outfielders who hit for power with high strikeout rates walk a fine line: If you're going to stand out, your strengths need to be strong. Wallner flexed big-time as a rookie, leading to a dramatic rise in this year's rankings.

Yes, Wallner struck out a considerable amount – 80 times in 250 plate appearances – but when he connected, he did massive damage. The outfielder rounded out his offensive game with a strong walk rate and a penchant for plunkings, to fuel a stellar .370 OBP. In this context, the strikeouts aren't that scary, as long as he can keep them relatively in check. With one of the best outfield arms in the game, Wallner already looks like prototypical long-term right fielder and mid-lineup slugger. He's under team control through 2029.

11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
2023 Ranking: 8

Durán is, without question, among the most valuable relief pitchers in the major leagues, with several remaining years of team control. Yet, he doesn't quite crack the top 10 of this list. It is a reflection of the reliever role and its fungibility relative to starters and everyday players--though obviously the Twins closer is anything but fungible.

The big righthander has maximized his impact as a 65-inning bullpen weapon over the past two seasons, shaking off previous durability concerns to emerge as one of MLB's elite high-leverage arms. In 2023, Durán posted a 2.45 ERA, with 84 strikeouts and 46 hits allowed in 62 innings, cementing his rep nationally with a stellar showing in the playoffs. The Twins still control him for four more years.

That's it for today's installment! Join us tomorrow as we break into the top 10 of our countdown with our picks for No. 6 through No. 10! In the meantime, which rankings so far jump out at you?

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP

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[Karbo]

Wallner and his high K rate will need to have his avg and OBP up to stay this high on the list. Duran should rate higher IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

List seems reasonable again today. The fact that Raya is #13 really speaks to the inflated value prospects carry until they fail.

Festa - Kirilloff - Varland - Paddack could all be, arguably, ahead of Raya. Gotta make choices though, so it’s all in the eye of the beholder.

Duran having dropped 3 spots after being at #8 last year is pretty surprising. Hopefully, that means we got better with our top end depth. We’ll see how the list concludes but I would think it’s hard to argue he isn’t one of our top 6-7 assets if looking to move him.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Duran. Way too low. I would have him no lower than 4 or 5. He's established. Let's take him out of the pen and see his value.

[Fatbat]

This is a great list! I would move Duran up to 7 but we have so many valuable assets left to list that I understand why he is at 11. No question about Raya being where he is. To me, he is a young Sonny Gray type and we should expect hime to be a mid to front line starter as he gets older. He is a baby striking out guys more advanced and heading to the bigs. Batters will not want to face him. Hopefully in ‘24 his workload tops over 100 innings to really show how good he is. 
Wallner has a great career ahead of him if he continues to adjust and keeps his obp over .350. I have no issues with K’s when they are balanced off with walks. 
Varland may be in the Top 10 next year wether he is a shut down reliever or a mid rotation starter. He just has to limit the dingers and throw that heat. Its very exciting to have 2 home grown young studs on this list. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I'm with the ones who think Duran is to low. I was never really on the Wallner train but after watching him play and really looking at what he did in the minors I think he has a lot room to grow and become a force for the team. (At least until his bat slows down a little, then the K's become unsustainable)

[KBJ1]

Wallner makes Kepler completely redundant.

Duran? He is in the top 3 with Pablo & Lewis. No team has a chance in the World Series without a top flyte closer.

In this age of 5 inning starters,  a lock down bullpen is of utmost importance!

Paddock had better be in the top 10 if this team is even thinking of competing. 

Raya? Irrelevant for at least a year or two. Why is he even on the list?

[Fatbat]

53 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I'm with the ones who think Duran is to low. I was never really on the Wallner train but after watching him play and really looking at what he did in the minors I think he has a lot room to grow and become a force for the team. (At least until his bat slows down a little, then the K's become unsustainable)

Hopefully thats in his mid 30s

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Wallner makes Kepler completely redundant.

Duran? He is in the top 3 with Pablo & Lewis. No team has a chance in the World Series without a top flyte closer.

In this age of 5 inning starters,  a lock down bullpen is of utmost importance!

Paddock had better be in the top 10 if this team is even thinking of competing. 

Raya? Irrelevant for at least a year or two. Why is he even on the list?

Who's starting in the other corner if Wallner and Kepler are redundant?

[roger]

Add me to the list of those who believe Duran should be higher.  I guess watching Twins closers try to close out games for so many years makes the closer role more important to me.

Wasn't a fan of Wallner when he came up.  Thought he struggled in the outfield in many of his first games.  To his credit, he must have worked on it because his deficiencies weren't as obvious later in the year.  Have loved Raya since he was picked in that short draft during the pandemic.

Gotta believe Varland will be higher on your list next year.  My hope is that he begins the season starting in St. Paul to be available to come over and start X number of games when needed.  Then flip him to the pen come August and have him pitch late in games during the Twins pennant run.

[Blyleven2011]

Ratings are really over rated  ...

Varland is valuable as a spot starter for now and a solid bullpen option  ...

Polanco is solid when healthy and is still a valuable player for the Twins ...

Raya is young but hasn't been stretched out to 5 innings or more , he might end up being a great bullpen option from what he has shown  so far in minors , he might end up a great starter as he builds strength to his frame , just to early to make a statement  , is he even going to be in the majors in 2024 ...

Wallner made improvements in 2024 in the outfield  , still has some work to do  ...

Duran season in 2024 was good but I think he was better on 2023 , I can see why he slip in your rating ...

[Nick Nelson]

Definitely thought hard about ranking Duran higher, because I agree that he SEEMS like he should be higher. But if we take a step back and look at valuation more objectively ... ?

As good as he was last year, Duran was worth 1.0 fWAR. Nearly identical to three other relievers - Jax, Stewart, Pagan. I'm not saying WAR is the be-all, end-all but that's pretty stark. In his rookie year, 1.5 fWAR. I love Duran obviously but I had a hard time convincing myself he's more irreplaceable than anyone in the top 10 (though of course they haven't been revealed yet so we can have those specific debates later this week).

[RpR]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Who's starting in the other corner if Wallner and Kepler are redundant?

Joey Gallo, who is a better fielder than Wallner!

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, RpR said:

Joey Gallo, who is a better fielder than Wallner!

I don't think Joey is going to be walking through the doors of the home clubhouse at Target Field in 2024.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Joey Gallo, who is a better fielder than Wallner!

Joey Gallo? Played more like Jerry Gallo.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

Joey Gallo, who is a better fielder than Wallner!

IDK if this was sarcastic but a corner OFer that is well above average defensively is not as valuable as a well above average hitter.  This is very clear in free agency or in how teams move prospects that can hit around defensively.   They find a defensive spot for guys that can hit.  Up the middle defenders are a different story,  

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Duran. Way too low. I would have him no lower than 4 or 5. He's established. Let's take him out of the pen and see his value.

I like his value in the fact that he influences the games played toward Wins 55-60 times per year. That works!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Wallner makes Kepler completely redundant.

Duran? He is in the top 3 with Pablo & Lewis. No team has a chance in the World Series without a top flyte closer.

In this age of 5 inning starters,  a lock down bullpen is of utmost importance!

Paddock had better be in the top 10 if this team is even thinking of competing. 

Raya? Irrelevant for at least a year or two. Why is he even on the list?

Understand the angst!

This isn’t a list of our best players or highest contributors in ‘24……………With that in mind - years of control - cost today and over years of control - obviously, ABILITY - age - etc. are all blended to try and come up with overall value.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Wallner makes Kepler completely redundant.

Duran? He is in the top 3 with Pablo & Lewis. No team has a chance in the World Series without a top flyte closer.

In this age of 5 inning starters,  a lock down bullpen is of utmost importance!

Paddock had better be in the top 10 if this team is even thinking of competing. 

Raya? Irrelevant for at least a year or two. Why is he even on the list?

Not sure how, when roughly 75% of pitchers are right handed, having Wallner & Kepler in the corner outfield spots is redundant.

If Lee comes up by year’s end & Julien locks down 2B, maybe Lewis moves to LF by next Spring & Wallner shifts to right? If we add an OF bat, then they become redundant but not prior.

Agreed, Paddack has a chance to be special after seeing his performance in September/October.

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Duran. Way too low. I would have him no lower than 4 or 5. He's established. Let's take him out of the pen and see his value.

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

This is a great list! I would move Duran up to 7 but we have so many valuable assets left to list that I understand why he is at 11. No question about Raya being where he is. To me, he is a young Sonny Gray type and we should expect hime to be a mid to front line starter as he gets older. He is a baby striking out guys more advanced and heading to the bigs. Batters will not want to face him. Hopefully in ‘24 his workload tops over 100 innings to really show how good he is. 
Wallner has a great career ahead of him if he continues to adjust and keeps his obp over .350. I have no issues with K’s when they are balanced off with walks. 
Varland may be in the Top 10 next year wether he is a shut down reliever or a mid rotation starter. He just has to limit the dingers and throw that heat. Its very exciting to have 2 home grown young studs on this list. 

4-5 might be aggressive, but 7 is not. I would absolutely have him ahead of Buxton and Jeffers. Possibly Lee and Jenkins.

Lee and Jenkins are the type of prospects you trade for a pitcher like Duran...and the Twins need Duran more.

Buxton is amazing when healthy, and if he is healthy, he's a bonus. He is not a building block. I can't consider that type of player asset as more valuable than Duran who is a building block.

Catcher is the RP of the lineup. They are the most volatile and oft-injured players in said lineup. For the time being, the Twins still have Vasquez and Camargo on the roster, making Jeffers not nearly as valuable to the current iteration of the Twins.

[Nick Nelson]

46 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

4-5 might be aggressive, but 7 is not. I would absolutely have him ahead of Buxton and Jeffers. Possibly Lee and Jenkins.

Lee and Jenkins are the type of prospects you trade for a pitcher like Duran...and the Twins need Duran more.

Buxton is amazing when healthy, and if he is healthy, he's a bonus. He is not a building block. I can't consider that type of player asset as more valuable than Duran who is a building block.

Catcher is the RP of the lineup. They are the most volatile and oft-injured players in said lineup. For the time being, the Twins still have Vasquez and Camargo on the roster, making Jeffers not nearly as valuable to the current iteration of the Twins.

I think there's a warped perception of scarcity and relative value here. It's not just about players being good in their roles, it's about them giving you a competitive advantage.

Duran is awesome! But the reality is that it isn't all that difficult to find dominant back-end relievers who can perform at roughly his level. Among MLB relievers, Duran ranked 52nd in WAR, 19th in ERA, 36th in FIP, and 21st in WPA. Jeffers was literally the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Lee and Jenkins are top 20 prospects in the game.  

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think there's a warped perception of scarcity and relative value here. It's not just about players being good in their roles, it's about them giving you a competitive advantage.

Duran is awesome! But the reality is that it isn't all that difficult to find dominant back-end relievers who can perform at roughly his level. Among MLB relievers, Duran ranked 52nd in WAR, 19th in ERA, 36th in FIP, and 21st in WPA. Jeffers was literally the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Lee and Jenkins are top 20 prospects in the game.  

Trading for one for the twins hs been hard. Lopez, Colume, Pagan etc has been hard to watch. Duran holds special value because he is homegrown.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

4-5 might be aggressive, but 7 is not. I would absolutely have him ahead of Buxton and Jeffers. Possibly Lee and Jenkins.

Lee and Jenkins are the type of prospects you trade for a pitcher like Duran...and the Twins need Duran more.

Buxton is amazing when healthy, and if he is healthy, he's a bonus. He is not a building block. I can't consider that type of player asset as more valuable than Duran who is a building block.

Catcher is the RP of the lineup. They are the most volatile and oft-injured players in said lineup. For the time being, the Twins still have Vasquez and Camargo on the roster, making Jeffers not nearly as valuable to the current iteration of the Twins.

Love Duran. Stated he should be higher than 11th. That said, he can’t be higher than Lee or especially Jenkins with their draft spots & evaluations to date - both viewed as franchise everyday players.

Shifting gears, am going to suggest an “add on” at maybe 21-24 on our asset list that would cost zero trade capital/assets. Was on this guy in June/July and he ended up with the Angels. Free Agent - Right handed bat - plays all 3 OF spots - he has Michael Taylor power or better and has a career .761 OPS - 101 OPS+ - .249 BA. Randal Grichuk…….assuming he may cost near $6.5 - $8M/year but other than a nose dive offensively at the end of ‘23, he’s a solid player over a 10 year career. Better offensive upside than Bader or other journeymen available on the market. Worth considering………….Whit Merrifield is an option as well but not much CF there and probably more $$.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Minny505 said:

4-5 might be aggressive, but 7 is not. I would absolutely have him ahead of Buxton and Jeffers. Possibly Lee and Jenkins.

Lee and Jenkins are the type of prospects you trade for a pitcher like Duran...and the Twins need Duran more.

Buxton is amazing when healthy, and if he is healthy, he's a bonus. He is not a building block. I can't consider that type of player asset as more valuable than Duran who is a building block.

Catcher is the RP of the lineup. They are the most volatile and oft-injured players in said lineup. For the time being, the Twins still have Vasquez and Camargo on the roster, making Jeffers not nearly as valuable to the current iteration of the Twins.

Lee and Jenkins are not the type of players I want to trade for 3 years of Duran.  I liked it much better when we traded 2 months of an above average infielder for 6+ years of Duran.  

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think there's a warped perception of scarcity and relative value here. It's not just about players being good in their roles, it's about them giving you a competitive advantage.

Duran is awesome! But the reality is that it isn't all that difficult to find dominant back-end relievers who can perform at roughly his level. Among MLB relievers, Duran ranked 52nd in WAR, 19th in ERA, 36th in FIP, and 21st in WPA. Jeffers was literally the best-hitting catcher in baseball. Lee and Jenkins are top 20 prospects in the game.  

I respectfully disagree on value measured by "Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?".

First, look at the top closers out there, their contracts, and their age: Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Liam Hendricks &  Josh Hader. Duran, certainly not at the top of the best closers in MLB, belongs in that conversation. His age and contract relative to his Closer peers is quite envious. And as we've been witness to, leading up to the breakthru of Duran, the next best option has been terrible enough to effectively tank the season for the rest of the team.

Lee, who I suspect has relatively equal general market trade value to Duran (FWIW, BTV agrees), is somewhat redundant on this roster with Julien, Lewis, Correa, Kirilloff, Polanco, and even Miranda, able to fill the same roles at roughly equal production and performance, based on 50% outcome. On a pure trade value exercise I would rank Lee one spot ahead of Duran, but in terms of value to the Twins winning a 'ship, I rank Duran higher.

Similar to Lee, Jenkins has more general trade value than Duran. But his distance from the majors, and his 50% outcome, make him more dispensible to hoisting that coveted piece of metal. 

As for Jeffers, he drastically outperformed his xwOBA in 2023. He's definitely a Top 10 catcher, arguably in the Top 5, but ditto Duran and Closer. Both have four years of team control, though Jeffers is a Super 2. Again, for the Twins, I deem Duran more indispensable in helping the Twins be the only playoff team finishing their season with a win at some point in the future.

It's all relatively subjective though and a really brilliant exercise, so I appreciate you getting the ball rolling on these super fun discussions!

[Minny505]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Lee and Jenkins are not the type of players I want to trade for 3 years of Duran.  I liked it much better when we traded 2 months of an above average infielder for 6+ years of Duran.  

It's 4 years of Duran. I think. Though Fangraphs has it listed as 5 years of team control remaining, which I don't understand. 

If the Twins still had Pagan/Cologme as their closer and they could get Duran and his 4/5 years of control for Lee, I would do it. I would try to squeeze a bit more out, but I would still do it, due to the depth of Twins infielders under team control at the moment.

The exercise is not about trade/surplus value. I suspect Lee and Duran have roughly equal value on the general market (in a trade value exercise I would rank Lee right ahead of Duran). The exercise, however, is about which players, and everything about them, are more likely to help the Twins win the WS.

Maybe thru that lens, you still view Lee as more valuable, but I do not. I believe Duran, and what he brings to the Twins, vs Lee, has more value to the team in his role than his replacements in the org. 

Jenkins is certainly more nuanced. I would not trade him straight up for Duran like I would Lee, but I would if another decent player/prospect was paired with Duran in said theoretical trade.

[Rosterman]

I love Varland, how he takes command of his time on the mound. Like Jax, he may not end up being the starter the Twins would like, but if the Twins can get 3-4 years of solid bullpen control out of the guy, and an ability to pitch thru a line-up, he is a valuable arm going forward.