Three Non-Tendered Relief Pitchers Who Should Interest The Twins

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins should always be looking to bolster their relief corps, even if the additions aren’t destined to see many high-leverage opportunities. It could take some time before they pay off, but could these three recently non-tendered arms be worthwhile additions on minimal commitments?

Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Twins decision-makers have never been keen on paying top dollar for the best relievers on the market, and this off-season appears to be no exception. While the top of the free-agent class features high-caliber options such as Josh Hader and Hector Neris, the Twins are likely to seek complementary arms to their current group on one-year or non-roster deals. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Multi-year commitments to relievers have a strong tendency to come back and bite the team who signs them, even if the immediate impact of an addition appears enticing. The Twins have a spotty track record when it comes to bringing in sufficient depth to last a full season, but there’s no denying the fact that they have hit on some underappreciated arms who subsequently turned into bullpen buzzsaws for them. From Caleb Thielbar to Matt Wisler to Brock Stewart, the current front office has been able to identify talent in the off-season scrapheap in recent years.

Some in this class of player might need some tweaks, whether it be mechanically or through modifying their pitch repertoire, but the upside is waiting to be tapped into. If these experiments fail to deliver fruitful results, the commitment should be minimal enough to be able to cut bait without much blowback. 

Here are three recently non-tendered pitchers who could be interesting pickups for the Twins as they seek low- and medium-leverage arms for 2024 (and beyond).

Lou Trivino
The former Oakland setup guy underwent Tommy John surgery in early May, so it’s hard to know how a team like the Twins would evaluate his potential value. He won’t have any impact in the first couple months of the season, but Trivino has a solid track record in the majors and has been a bullpen mainstay for the A’s and Yankees since debuting in 2018. Over his last three seasons, the veteran righty carried a 3.76 ERA through 150 ⅔ innings, with an encouraging 9.6 K/9. He did have a walk rate that hovered around 10%, which should be cause for concern, especially after coming off of elbow surgery. 

Trivino uses a heavy sinker that he was able to throw for strikes consistently and that averaged more than 95 MPH before the operation. He used a handful of other pitches, including a cutter, four-seam fastball, changeup and a rarely-thrown curveball. What might interest the Twins most is his development of a slider in early 2022, before being traded to New York. The pitch achieved good results in a small sample. Then, the Yankees pumped its usage up substantially with a great outcome (41.7% whiff rate after the trade). 

If the Twins can reel Trivino in on a team-friendly deal, whether that means a minor-league contract with an invitation to Spring Training or a very affordable major-league guarantee, he could be a worthwhile project. Maybe they could simplify his pitch mix by having him focus on that slider and just one fastball, as they have with other success stories in the past. He'll become a free agent again next winter if only signed for a season, as he has no extra years of team control remaining. If he's amenable, the best move might be a two-year pact that guarantees him a bit more money but gives the Twins a chance to get a full season from him in 2025, should things go well.

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Derek Law
As an old flame of the Twins, Law pitched 74 ⅓ innings across the last two years since leaving Minnesota, with a 3.74 ERA and handful of unappetizing parts under the hood. He had pedestrian strikeout numbers (7.5 K/9), a high-risk walk rate (10.2%) and a 4.77 expected ERA (xERA, derived from walks, strikeouts, and batted-ball data), but was able to avoid greater damage thanks to his ability to induce weak contact. Law’s 87-MPH average exit velocity allowed was among elite company across baseball, as opponents were limited to a 4.8% Barrel rate.

We know the Twins have had interest in Law in the past, so the appeal might still be there, especially on a minimal commitment. Like with Trivino, the club could try to simplify the 33-year-old righty’s pitch mix. That could entail ditching his cutter, which has been his primary pitch for the last two years but has yielded lackluster results. Law could instead pair his plus slider with his four-seam fastball, which had far superior expected results in 2023 (.178 xBA, .272 xSLG). He threw six pitches last season, which is at least two more than he needs. Simplifying things could further unlock him, and he's already joined the fraternity of relievers who find their best velocity in their 30s, so the profile gets interesting in a hurry. Law might not raise the ceiling of the Twins’ bullpen, even if he pans out, but he could help raise the floor in low-leverage spots.

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Penn Murfee
The last name on this list looks like it was simulated by MLB The Show, but might be the most intriguing one of the bunch--or it was, until Atlanta signed Murfee to a big-league deal Wednesday night. Murfee’s lack of notoriety probably comes from the veil of playing on a West Coast club, where he succeeded in mostly low-pressure relief opportunities for the Seattle Mariners. But the 29-year-old righty’s run ended in June when he succumbed to a torn UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. Thus, Murfee was dropped by Seattle, and subsequently picked up and dropped by the Mets and Braves. After Atlanta non-tendered the Vanderbilt product in order to avoid paying him all season while he navigates the risky rehab and return process, the two parties got back together on a split contract. Murfee will make one salary while he's in the big leagues, and another, lower one if and when he needs to be optioned to the minors. Whereas many other teams (including the Twins) might have wanted him on a minor-league deal, Atlanta used their wide-open 40-man roster to their advantage and guaranteed him a spot.

Murfee’s fastball sat around 88-89 MPH over the last few years, but he made up for it with a wicked sweeper that he used as his primary offering. That high-spIn pitch helped limit opponents to an anemic .177 batting average, and could be the kind of offering that the Twins’ front office loves. We already know they like guys who can give opponents unusual looks, and the lanky, sidewinding Murfee certainly does that. Since he's no longer available, maybe the Twins could turn to submariner Adam Cimber to provide that unique angle. The Blue Jays non-tendered Cimber after a rough 2023, but no reliever who was non-tendered has a more robust track record in MLB. Unlike Murfee, Cimber would almost certainly require a straight-up big-league deal, but it's likely to be a small one.

What do you think? Should these non-tendered pitchers be of interest to the Twins? Who else would you rather see them chase in free agency? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Absolutely interested in Trivino, even on a 2 year deal. Good list!

[CRF]

I'd be willing to take a chance on Trivino, but no interest in having Law back here.

[Whitey333]

Nice list.  If it's cheap, tge Twins are interested of course.  Should they be?  Not if you are serious about being a contender.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice list.  If it's cheap, tge Twins are interested of course.  Should they be?  Not if you are serious about being a contender.

Because paying big dollars for relief pitchers on the free agent market always works out?

[old nurse]

Pagan 2/16 plus incentives. Despite uncertain revenue, relievers with some success are not coming cheaply early in the process. The Twins are more likely to find 3-4 pitchers with potential on minor league deals. That would require a fairly deep dive to predict what relievers the Twins would target.  Robles and Colome experiment failed. I wouldn’t look for them to spend money. In spring training if one of the rehab relievers haven’t signed and would do a minimal contract they would be a possibility. I doubt that would happen. 

[NishiokaStan]

I like the idea of Trivino on a 2-year deal. His command/control will likely be a huge issue when he first returns from his rehab, but the bullpen is in a place this year where we could likely make him something close to a mop-up man. Let him get some low-leverage big-league innings under his belt this year to regain his feel, then after a full offseason he could be a real solid piece of the 2025 bullpen. Thanks for the food for thought!

[Coach Wheels]

Always frustrated to read about Twins having interest in guys after arm surgery. When price of pitching continues to be the priority, I lose interest quickly. It's a me problem but it's a drag

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wonder what available non-tendered starters have the possibility of being converted to successful relievers?

[farmerguychris]

Would our FO really spend money now on relievers?  They didn't when they were increasing payroll, why would they now?  I expect a pen full of AAAA arms in addition to our existing crew.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Because paying big dollars for relief pitchers on the free agent market always works out?

seriously. While I would like some reinforcement for the bullpen, if the pagan contract in the going rate for a low-leverage fungible middle reliever, I have no interest in playing in that pool.

Trivino is interesting, but I would be a little nervous about a guy with some control issues coming back from TJ. the velocity will likely be fine even early, but finding the zone could be a problem.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, jmlease1 said:

seriously. While I would like some reinforcement for the bullpen, if the pagan contract in the going rate for a low-leverage fungible middle reliever, I have no interest in playing in that pool.

Trivino is interesting, but I would be a little nervous about a guy with some control issues coming back from TJ. the velocity will likely be fine even early, but finding the zone could be a problem.

I definitely want them to bring in at least one major league contract reliever who will be on the roster opening day. But Trivino would ALSO be a great add.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Pagan 2/16 plus incentives. Despite uncertain revenue, relievers with some success are not coming cheaply early in the process. The Twins are more likely to find 3-4 pitchers with potential on minor league deals. That would require a fairly deep dive to predict what relievers the Twins would target.  Robles and Colome experiment failed. I wouldn’t look for them to spend money. In spring training if one of the rehab relievers haven’t signed and would do a minimal contract they would be a possibility. I doubt that would happen. 

Even though Pagan was a constant source of irritation on this site,  He did pitch pretty well at times and we may end up missing him

[old nurse]

21 minutes ago, mickster said:

Even though Pagan was a constant source of irritation on this site,  He did pitch pretty well at times and we may end up missing him

4 year history of not performing well in high leverage situations. Great 6th inning type pitcher.  Great when ou are a couple of runs up or down. That does not seem like an 8 million dollar reliever 

[TopGunn#22]

I think our FO doesn't really want to spend much on bullpen arms and will only pony up the dollars as Duran becomes eligible for bigger paydays.  It's high time to get the Funderburks and Varlands in there.  It's also why I look at Thielbar  at$2.9 million and see that he is by far the highest paid bullpen arm and at age 37 going into the 2024 season I could see him packaged in a deal with Seattle or Miami. 

I'm not interested in any of the listed pitchers.  Trevino will be out half of 2024.  

[Swimbo]

So slightly off topic, but what are people's feelings about Andrew Chafin. His 2023 numbers weren't great but he was a decent middle innings reliever. I'd put him above Pagan on career record and ability but behind him on the 2023 season. He's a lefty and I'd be fine with him a 1 year 4-5 million deal just to see what he has left

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Even though Pagan was a constant source of irritation on this site

The people who complained about Pagan incessantly even when he was doing well were a constant source of irritation on this site. They'll have to find a new person to complain about now.

[PatPfund]

I'd float Trivino a Keuchel-like deal; one year minor league deal with player opt-outs if he isn't called up by something like August 15th and/or the playoff roster deadline. It lets the pitcher rehab in an organization that just did the same for Keuchel and Paddack, and lets him essentially try out for a bigger contract. For the Twins it is a useful chance to add a good arm for the stretch run when injuries often pare the roster, and at little cost if it doesn't work. But like Keuchel, this is a background move for depth not a key strategy, and I really doubt the team wants to commit to second year to a rehab arm when next year's salary crunch looms.

Guess the others could work (or not); they don't fire me up, but neither did Brock Stewart, and that worked out pretty well.

[Beast]

It is a bad thing that they’re likely to seek only “complementary” guys (you put it kindly).

Guys like Brock Stewart (who had a flashy ERA, but hardly pitched and gave up a couple monster HRs in the playoffs) are the exception.  The odds of you finding someone good off the scrap heap are very low.  It’s a losing strategy.  That’s why the teams that win most often usually don’t employ it as their primary means of player acquisition.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Beast said:

The odds of you finding someone good off the scrap heap are very low.

I agree, if that's the strategy you need a big scrap heap. Fortunately there are at least 8 roster spots for relievers in AAA. I would fill AAA with retreads every year and keep my young guys in AA until I sorted through the scrap heap a little.

[tony&rodney]

Penn Murfee already signed with Atlanta. 

Andrew Chafin? MILB deal? Good to find a guy. I'm not too worried about the pen. All of Winder, Sands, and Balazovic have some potential for utility there. Balazovic, though, is out of options.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Beast said:

It is a bad thing that they’re likely to seek only “complementary” guys (you put it kindly).

Guys like Brock Stewart (who had a flashy ERA, but hardly pitched and gave up a couple monster HRs in the playoffs) are the exception.  The odds of you finding someone good off the scrap heap are very low.  It’s a losing strategy.  That’s why the teams that win most often usually don’t employ it as their primary means of player acquisition.

Tampa Bay feasts off the scrap heap. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&stats=rel&qual=20&pageitems=30&team=12

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The people who complained about Pagan incessantly even when he was doing well were a constant source of irritation on this site. They'll have to find a new person to complain about now.

Pretty much now anybody beyond 4 years of service with the Twins get roasted, or should be traded, by a lot of people. 

[ashbury]

40 man spots are more valuable than these guys.  Doesn't matter the low salary.  Minor league deal with a player opt-out a month into the regular season, or like that.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Would our FO really spend money now on relievers?  They didn't when they were increasing payroll, why would they now?  I expect a pen full of AAAA arms in addition to our existing crew.

Good point. It's early in the offseason, and it's possible we could land a veteran arm in a trade, but I think your scenario will most likely come true. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 11/30/2023 at 10:40 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I definitely want them to bring in at least one major league contract reliever who will be on the roster opening day. But Trivino would ALSO be a great add.

What do you think about Aroldis Chapman, who is a free agent? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What do you think about Aroldis Chapman, who is a free agent? 

I want people who are able to be good teammates. I'm not certain I would be up for having him here. You?

[TopGunn#22]

Chapman may still have some ability.  I'm not as concerned about "good teammates" as you are Cory.  It's a factor, but not primary to me.  If he does his job at a high level it won't matter much with good leaders like Correa and even the young Royce Lewis.  That's why I wouldn't be against signing Trevor Bauer.  I think he can still pitch and I'd bet the price is right.

Same with A. Chapman, could I sign him for less than the $2.9 million we're paying Thielbar?  I doubt it, and that's why I'm open to trading Thielbar.  2024 will be Caleb's age 37 season.  Everyone else in our pen is 33% the cost of him.  He's breaking down.  Give young guns a shot at the bullpen.  A vet like Josh Hader or Devin Williams, there's no denying talent like THAT.  But Thielbar's are a dime a dozen in MLB.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Chapman may still have some ability.  I'm not as concerned about "good teammates" as you are Cory.  It's a factor, but not primary to me.  If he does his job at a high level it won't matter much with good leaders like Correa and even the young Royce Lewis.  That's why I wouldn't be against signing Trevor Bauer.  I think he can still pitch and I'd bet the price is right.

Same with A. Chapman, could I sign him for less than the $2.9 million we're paying Thielbar?  I doubt it, and that's why I'm open to trading Thielbar.  2024 will be Caleb's age 37 season.  Everyone else in our pen is 33% the cost of him.  He's breaking down.  Give young guns a shot at the bullpen.  A vet like Josh Hader or Devin Williams, there's no denying talent like THAT.  But Thielbar's are a dime a dozen in MLB.   

I do think, or at least it seems, that there is good leadership now. That's a good thing.

 

I will argue pretty strongly that Thielbar is not at all a dime a dozen reliever though. His career year in many ways was 2022, so I don't know that he will get back to that level of productivity again. But I'd prefer him and his curveball in the bullpen to Chapman in my opinion.