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Twins decision-makers have never been keen on paying top dollar for the best relievers on the market, and this off-season appears to be no exception. While the top of the free-agent class features high-caliber options such as Josh Hader and Hector Neris, the Twins are likely to seek complementary arms to their current group on one-year or non-roster deals. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Multi-year commitments to relievers have a strong tendency to come back and bite the team who signs them, even if the immediate impact of an addition appears enticing. The Twins have a spotty track record when it comes to bringing in sufficient depth to last a full season, but there’s no denying the fact that they have hit on some underappreciated arms who subsequently turned into bullpen buzzsaws for them. From Caleb Thielbar to Matt Wisler to Brock Stewart, the current front office has been able to identify talent in the off-season scrapheap in recent years.
Some in this class of player might need some tweaks, whether it be mechanically or through modifying their pitch repertoire, but the upside is waiting to be tapped into. If these experiments fail to deliver fruitful results, the commitment should be minimal enough to be able to cut bait without much blowback.
Here are three recently non-tendered pitchers who could be interesting pickups for the Twins as they seek low- and medium-leverage arms for 2024 (and beyond).
Lou Trivino
The former Oakland setup guy underwent Tommy John surgery in early May, so it’s hard to know how a team like the Twins would evaluate his potential value. He won’t have any impact in the first couple months of the season, but Trivino has a solid track record in the majors and has been a bullpen mainstay for the A’s and Yankees since debuting in 2018. Over his last three seasons, the veteran righty carried a 3.76 ERA through 150 ⅔ innings, with an encouraging 9.6 K/9. He did have a walk rate that hovered around 10%, which should be cause for concern, especially after coming off of elbow surgery.
Trivino uses a heavy sinker that he was able to throw for strikes consistently and that averaged more than 95 MPH before the operation. He used a handful of other pitches, including a cutter, four-seam fastball, changeup and a rarely-thrown curveball. What might interest the Twins most is his development of a slider in early 2022, before being traded to New York. The pitch achieved good results in a small sample. Then, the Yankees pumped its usage up substantially with a great outcome (41.7% whiff rate after the trade).
If the Twins can reel Trivino in on a team-friendly deal, whether that means a minor-league contract with an invitation to Spring Training or a very affordable major-league guarantee, he could be a worthwhile project. Maybe they could simplify his pitch mix by having him focus on that slider and just one fastball, as they have with other success stories in the past. He'll become a free agent again next winter if only signed for a season, as he has no extra years of team control remaining. If he's amenable, the best move might be a two-year pact that guarantees him a bit more money but gives the Twins a chance to get a full season from him in 2025, should things go well.
Derek Law
As an old flame of the Twins, Law pitched 74 ⅓ innings across the last two years since leaving Minnesota, with a 3.74 ERA and handful of unappetizing parts under the hood. He had pedestrian strikeout numbers (7.5 K/9), a high-risk walk rate (10.2%) and a 4.77 expected ERA (xERA, derived from walks, strikeouts, and batted-ball data), but was able to avoid greater damage thanks to his ability to induce weak contact. Law’s 87-MPH average exit velocity allowed was among elite company across baseball, as opponents were limited to a 4.8% Barrel rate.
We know the Twins have had interest in Law in the past, so the appeal might still be there, especially on a minimal commitment. Like with Trivino, the club could try to simplify the 33-year-old righty’s pitch mix. That could entail ditching his cutter, which has been his primary pitch for the last two years but has yielded lackluster results. Law could instead pair his plus slider with his four-seam fastball, which had far superior expected results in 2023 (.178 xBA, .272 xSLG). He threw six pitches last season, which is at least two more than he needs. Simplifying things could further unlock him, and he's already joined the fraternity of relievers who find their best velocity in their 30s, so the profile gets interesting in a hurry. Law might not raise the ceiling of the Twins’ bullpen, even if he pans out, but he could help raise the floor in low-leverage spots.
Penn Murfee
The last name on this list looks like it was simulated by MLB The Show, but might be the most intriguing one of the bunch--or it was, until Atlanta signed Murfee to a big-league deal Wednesday night. Murfee’s lack of notoriety probably comes from the veil of playing on a West Coast club, where he succeeded in mostly low-pressure relief opportunities for the Seattle Mariners. But the 29-year-old righty’s run ended in June when he succumbed to a torn UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. Thus, Murfee was dropped by Seattle, and subsequently picked up and dropped by the Mets and Braves. After Atlanta non-tendered the Vanderbilt product in order to avoid paying him all season while he navigates the risky rehab and return process, the two parties got back together on a split contract. Murfee will make one salary while he's in the big leagues, and another, lower one if and when he needs to be optioned to the minors. Whereas many other teams (including the Twins) might have wanted him on a minor-league deal, Atlanta used their wide-open 40-man roster to their advantage and guaranteed him a spot.
Murfee’s fastball sat around 88-89 MPH over the last few years, but he made up for it with a wicked sweeper that he used as his primary offering. That high-spIn pitch helped limit opponents to an anemic .177 batting average, and could be the kind of offering that the Twins’ front office loves. We already know they like guys who can give opponents unusual looks, and the lanky, sidewinding Murfee certainly does that. Since he's no longer available, maybe the Twins could turn to submariner Adam Cimber to provide that unique angle. The Blue Jays non-tendered Cimber after a rough 2023, but no reliever who was non-tendered has a more robust track record in MLB. Unlike Murfee, Cimber would almost certainly require a straight-up big-league deal, but it's likely to be a small one.
What do you think? Should these non-tendered pitchers be of interest to the Twins? Who else would you rather see them chase in free agency? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.
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