Pump the Brakes On These Prospects

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, jjswol said:

I am a big believer in bringing up prospects as quickly as possible versus letting them languish in the minor leagues.

That's fair, but when the team is in a competitive cycle like the Twins currently are I'd rather have prospects force their way on to the MLB squad rather than get there on scholarship.

Brooks Lee is a heck of a prospect, and I'm very high on him but he hasn't crushed AAA in ways that demand the Twins make room for him immediately...yet. He earned his promotion to AAA for sure. I'm fine with having him keep earning it; I think he's going to have a great year in Saint Paul and be up early if/when we have an injury in the infield.

Austin Martin has overcome a lot and has had a bumpy road as a prospect. he earned his promotion to AAA with his AFL performance, and did a good job coming back from injury again. But he really had one great month, so while I'm still thinking he can be a valuable player for the Twins (he profiles wonderfully for this team as a potential 4th OF/super utility player who can get on base, steal bases, play good defense in multiple positions, and have a little pop in his bat) he didn't do so well that the Twins shouldn't still look for a more proven backup CF first. Do I think he can carve out a role some time in 2024? You betcha, but he doesn't need to do it on scholarship.

Severino is interesting as a 1B option (switch-hitter with loads of power) but again: I wouldn't move someone out to find him a job in MLB. Camargo is interesting, but the only way to put him in MLB is to move on from Vazquez, and if we do that we have no other catchers ready to step in in case of injury. Right now we'd have to eat part of Vazquez's contract anyways.

I'm really excited about our prospects; there's some definite talents moving up through the system, but having depth is good and there's no need to create openings yet.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I feel like "preferably" is strong here, but I see where you are coming from

Also, generally, I THINK my head has gone with Lee as a potential trade chip a bit here and there too. Seattle has been vocal about wanting a SS (which Lee has only really played in the minors) and Seattle definitely has some interesting young pitching.

I'm NOT jumping to conclusions. Ok, maybe I am

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Also, generally, I THINK my head has gone with Lee as a potential trade chip a bit here and there too. Seattle has been vocal about wanting a SS (which Lee has only really played in the minors) and Seattle definitely has some interesting young pitching.

I'm NOT jumping to conclusions. Ok, maybe I am

Has Seattle gotten off their "Crawford is our SS" stance? From my recollection all their SS chasing has been with the goal to actually move them to 2B because Crawford was their guy at short.

[Greggory Masterson]

53 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Among logical fallacies, Appeal to Authority is one of the popular ones. 

Among logical fallacies, the Fallacy Fallacy is one of the more popular ones, as well.

Joshing, of course, but can't a man make a turn of phrase to mean that they'll be here eventually but don't need to be rushed? (I'm also not sure that we're describing the appeal to authority here, but I digress)

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Has Seattle gotten off their "Crawford is our SS" stance? From my recollection all their SS chasing has been with the goal to actually move them to 2B because Crawford was their guy at short.

You know, I THOUGHT I had read they wanted a SS, but now maybe that's just me going crazy and thinking something. 

[Greggory Masterson]

3 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It's not a terrible approach, but IMO the FO waits way to long to replace the veteran and team results in wins and losses reflect that.

This is the key to all of this. They need to handle those permanent decisions well. I kept track during the season, and waiving Luplow late in the year was essentially the most permanent decision made in 2023. Otherwise every move was reversable if needed (and they even went back on the Luplow DFA to just send him down instead; still not sure how that worked.)

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You know, I THOUGHT I had read they wanted a SS, but now maybe that's just me going crazy and thinking something. 

I mean I think it's pretty well known they want infield help and if you can get a SS I'm pretty sure you're happy with it as they can move basically anywhere in the IF and succeed.

[Doctor Gast]

In '21 they were in hurry to get rid of Rosario & Larnach, Kiriloff & Cave were to man LF & sub CF. In spring training they all were bad but they were determined to push them through. None of them stuck & we had to convert Robsnyder & Gordon from INF to OF & rush Celestino. They did better than expected but it was a disaster.

'22 Lewis broke MLB subbing Correa & shone. But Lewis is a different animal.

My opinion is different, that INF isn't very deep. If we trade Polanco & Farmer as advocated, we have Lewis (3B) Correa (SS) Julien (2B) with Castro as sub, I wouldn't like him there very often. And Castro could be very busy playing CF. I wouldn't trust rushing Lee transition to MLB.  In this scenario our INF takes a huge drop in quality. Where our defense need to be top to compete.

Vazquez helped to turn our rotation from around the middle of the pack to top tier the big difference is his handling of the pitchers. Our catching went from the toilet to the middle of the pack. If we trade him the Jeffers/ Carmargo tandem could take us back to the toilet. I don't trust Carmargo's limited successs in AAA will transition well in MLB.

I think Martin could be productive in the MLB. We have to see how well he does in Spring Training. I still won't trust him full time in CF until Buxton is ready to take over.

All three areas are extremely important, any deductions from them will affect the competitiveness of our team. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

39 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I feel like "preferably" is strong here, but I see where you are coming from

Yeah, I'm definitely in no rush to trade Lee but given the newly self-imposed payroll limit, if the team wants to improve, they're going to have to make some deals.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I'm definitely in no rush to trade Lee but given the newly self-imposed payroll limit, if the team wants to improve, they're going to have to make some deals.

You mean we can't just trade all the players we don't necessarily/hypothetically love for another team's best players? What's up with that? :)

Also, I'm trying to find, in the settings menu, where to turn injuries off for 2024. Have you been able to find that? :)

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

That's fair, but when the team is in a competitive cycle like the Twins currently are I'd rather have prospects force their way on to the MLB squad rather than get there on scholarship.

Brooks Lee is a heck of a prospect, and I'm very high on him but he hasn't crushed AAA in ways that demand the Twins make room for him immediately...yet. He earned his promotion to AAA for sure. I'm fine with having him keep earning it; I think he's going to have a great year in Saint Paul and be up early if/when we have an injury in the infield.

Austin Martin has overcome a lot and has had a bumpy road as a prospect. he earned his promotion to AAA with his AFL performance, and did a good job coming back from injury again. But he really had one great month, so while I'm still thinking he can be a valuable player for the Twins (he profiles wonderfully for this team as a potential 4th OF/super utility player who can get on base, steal bases, play good defense in multiple positions, and have a little pop in his bat) he didn't do so well that the Twins shouldn't still look for a more proven backup CF first. Do I think he can carve out a role some time in 2024? You betcha, but he doesn't need to do it on scholarship.

Severino is interesting as a 1B option (switch-hitter with loads of power) but again: I wouldn't move someone out to find him a job in MLB. Camargo is interesting, but the only way to put him in MLB is to move on from Vazquez, and if we do that we have no other catchers ready to step in in case of injury. Right now we'd have to eat part of Vazquez's contract anyways.

I'm really excited about our prospects; there's some definite talents moving up through the system, but having depth is good and there's no need to create openings yet.

What does "force their way up" even mean? Julien and Wallner excelled at the MLB level in their first taste last year, and were sent down......

What would a player have to do, for how long, to force their way up? At some point, you have to trust your development process and move guys up. Few players are finished products in the minors or first or second year in the majors. 

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

In '21 they were in hurry to get rid of Rosario & Larnach, Kiriloff & Cave were to man LF & sub CF. In spring training they all were bad but they were determined to push them through. None of them stuck & we had to convert Robsnyder & Gordon from INF to OF & rush Celestino. They did better than expected but it was a disaster.

'22 Lewis broke MLB subbing Correa & shone. But Lewis is a different animal.

My opinion is different, that INF isn't very deep. If we trade Polanco & Farmer as advocated, we have Lewis (3B) Correa (SS) Julien (2B) with Castro as sub, I wouldn't like him there very often. And Castro could be very busy playing CF. I wouldn't trust rushing Lee transition to MLB.  In this scenario our INF takes a huge drop in quality. Where our defense need to be top to compete.

Vazquez helped to turn our rotation from around the middle of the pack to top tier the big difference is his handling of the pitchers. Our catching went from the toilet to the middle of the pack. If we trade him the Jeffers/ Carmargo tandem could take us back to the toilet. I don't trust Carmargo's limited successs in AAA will transition well in MLB.

I think Martin could be productive in the MLB. We have to see how well he does in Spring Training. I still won't trust him full time in CF until Buxton is ready to take over.

All three areas are extremely important, any deductions from them will affect the competitiveness of our team. 

 

IMO, if you deal Vazquez, you 100% sign a cheap backup catcher and plan to have Jeffers start 90-100 games. Like other elite hitting catchers. 

[Doctor Gast]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

IMO, if you deal Vazquez, you 100% sign a cheap backup catcher and plan to have Jeffers start 90-100 games. Like other elite hitting catchers. 

If you trade Vazquez you are paying someone to take our 1st class defensive catcher for maybe a 3rd rate catcher. A cheap catcher will not get you anything & maybe does not improve much over Carmargo. Jeffers is far from an elite catcher. which I doubt can repeat this years limited hitting success.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you trade Vazquez you are paying someone to take our 1st class defensive catcher for maybe a 3rd rate catcher. A cheap catcher will not get you anything & maybe does not improve much over Carmargo. Jeffers is far from an elite catcher. which I doubt can repeat this years limited hitting success.

I understand many doubt Jeffers, despite his minor league hitting and what he did last year. The backup would be so they have three catchers more than anything else. I also find C defense to be over rated, but I get that others don't agree. 

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does "force their way up" even mean? Julien and Wallner excelled at the MLB level in their first taste last year, and were sent down......

What would a player have to do, for how long, to force their way up? At some point, you have to trust your development process and move guys up. Few players are finished products in the minors or first or second year in the majors. 

This isn't totally true. Julien's first stint in the majors was an 8 game stretch from April 12 through 20. He hit .222/.276/.444/.720 while playing horrid defense in that stretch. After he was recalled in May he spent another week in AAA before being a regular in the Twins lineup. I mean the kid played in 109 games. It's not like they had him down for months after his first stint, which wasn't impressive.

Wallner played far fewer total games (76), but his first stint in the majors was horrid. Super small sample size, no doubt, but from April 9 through April 14 he had a .000/.273/.000/.273 slash line. Again, limited playing time and very small sample. In his next 5 game stint in May he had better success, but, again, a super small sample size. Everyone remembers his ending that stint by reaching base 8 straight times, but he'd reached base 2 times total before that 8 PA stretch. Once he was back in July he was a regular the rest of the year.

It's not like these guys came in and did otherworldly things for a long stretch and then were sent back down. I remember being quite upset about things during the season, but going back and looking at it makes me see it wasn't that egregious. Gallo over Wallner is certainly frustrating, but giving Polanco run over Julien until the middle of May isn't ridiculous at all in my opinion. I think they actually managed this pretty well overall. Even though it certainly didn't feel like it at the time.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

This isn't totally true. Julien's first stint in the majors was an 8 game stretch from April 12 through 20. He hit .222/.276/.444/.720 while playing horrid defense in that stretch. After he was recalled in May he spent another week in AAA before being a regular in the Twins lineup. I mean the kid played in 109 games. It's not like they had him down for months after his first stint, which wasn't impressive.

Wallner played far fewer total games (76), but his first stint in the majors was horrid. Super small sample size, no doubt, but from April 9 through April 14 he had a .000/.273/.000/.273 slash line. Again, limited playing time and very small sample. In his next 5 game stint in May he had better success, but, again, a super small sample size. Everyone remembers his ending that stint by reaching base 8 straight times, but he'd reached base 2 times total before that 8 PA stretch. Once he was back in July he was a regular the rest of the year.

It's not like these guys came in and did otherworldly things for a long stretch and then were sent back down. I remember being quite upset about things during the season, but going back and looking at it makes me see it wasn't that egregious. Gallo over Wallner is certainly frustrating, but Giving Polanco run over Julien until the middle of May isn't ridiculous at all in my opinion. I think they actually managed this pretty well overall. Even though it certainly didn't feel like it at the time.

Nothing about Gallo over Wallner was right, imo. But thanks for the correction on the stats, certainly not how I recalled it. 

Still doesn't address the actual question....what would a guy have to do to "force their way up"? How awesome would a guy have to hit in AAA (especially since no one trusts the numbers)? Like, what could Martin even do if they sign a CF and Buxton is healthy and sometimes playing CF, but mostly DH? 

[jmlease1]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does "force their way up" even mean? Julien and Wallner excelled at the MLB level in their first taste last year, and were sent down......

What would a player have to do, for how long, to force their way up? At some point, you have to trust your development process and move guys up. Few players are finished products in the minors or first or second year in the majors. 

Sure, but Wallner showed he could dominate at AAA before he got his call-up and even Julien was getting rolling in his first 2 weeks of the season in AAA before coming up the first time. I'm more talking about clearing space for guys in advance of the season anyways, before they'd had a chance to show much.

It also makes a difference if you have other options as well. because some of these rookies are going to struggle and even need to get a re-set back in AAA, and then you still have to fill the position in MLB. Catcher is a good example for this right now: if the Twins move Vazquez to create a spot for Camargo...what happens if Jeffers gets hurt and Camargo struggles? Right now our options would be very thin (and yes, we're likely to stash a veteran borderline catcher in AAA before the season starts just in case, but we haven't done it yet).

the talent level in AAA is higher than it was 2 years ago, which certainly makes a difference, but the Twins clearly have no interest in getting into a situation where they're running out their 9th choice at OF while trying to stay in contention again.

We've got room to move someone like Farmer or Polanco because we have depth in the middle infield (although SS is definitely lean) and Julien has already shown he can handle 2B on a regular basis. But it'd be a lot riskier if we packaged up farmer, Polanco and Julien for pitching and handed 2B to Brooks Lee...

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, jmlease1 said:

Sure, but Wallner showed he could dominate at AAA before he got his call-up and even Julien was getting rolling in his first 2 weeks of the season in AAA before coming up the first time. I'm more talking about clearing space for guys in advance of the season anyways, before they'd had a chance to show much.

It also makes a difference if you have other options as well. because some of these rookies are going to struggle and even need to get a re-set back in AAA, and then you still have to fill the position in MLB. Catcher is a good example for this right now: if the Twins move Vazquez to create a spot for Camargo...what happens if Jeffers gets hurt and Camargo struggles? Right now our options would be very thin (and yes, we're likely to stash a veteran borderline catcher in AAA before the season starts just in case, but we haven't done it yet).

the talent level in AAA is higher than it was 2 years ago, which certainly makes a difference, but the Twins clearly have no interest in getting into a situation where they're running out their 9th choice at OF while trying to stay in contention again.

We've got room to move someone like Farmer or Polanco because we have depth in the middle infield (although SS is definitely lean) and Julien has already shown he can handle 2B on a regular basis. But it'd be a lot riskier if we packaged up farmer, Polanco and Julien for pitching and handed 2B to Brooks Lee...

Did Wallner outhit what others did last year? I don't know, asking...because some guys dominated AAA, but no one trusts the STP numbers. 

I hope they never have to run out the 9th OF choice again either, that was unreal....but no amount of depth can handle that many injuries.

[RpR]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did Wallner outhit what others did last year? I don't know, asking...because some guys dominated AAA, but no one trusts the STP numbers. 

I hope they never have to run out the 9th OF choice again either, that was unreal....but no amount of depth can handle that many injuries.

Here are Wallner's batting and defense for the past two year AAA and Majors

 

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nothing about Gallo over Wallner was right, imo. But thanks for the correction on the stats, certainly not how I recalled it. 

Still doesn't address the actual question....what would a guy have to do to "force their way up"? How awesome would a guy have to hit in AAA (especially since no one trusts the numbers)? Like, what could Martin even do if they sign a CF and Buxton is healthy and sometimes playing CF, but mostly DH? 

Yeah, I would've lost a bet if I'd had to recall what actually happened. I didn't like it in real time at all, but I'm less annoyed now. With Gallo being the real cause of frustration for me now.

I think we both know there's no exact answer to that question. So many things play into it. But we saw it last year. You have to be succeeding in AAA (or AA for some guys) when an opportunity opens in the majors (which they do every year) and you have to hold your own when you get your first shot. At least don't look completely overwhelmed. Then a lot depends on how long that opportunity is. If you go back down you start the cycle again. There are not a lot of jobs on contending teams that are just handed to rookies. Mike Trout was sent back down. It took until late June for Wander Franco to get his shot. Adley Rutschman got his shot on May 21st of 2022 compared to Julien on May 20, 2023 and Adley was the #1 pick out of college in the same draft. Gavin Lux was a top 100 (top 10 even) prospect and has bounced back and forth between the majors and the minors since 2019 (then hurt this year). Evan Carter was a top 50 prospect absolutely slaughtering the minors for the 3rd straight year and wasn't called up until September 8th. Noelvi Marte wasn't called up until the end of August. Curtis Mead wasn't called up until August. Then got sent back down before being called back up in September. Miguel Vargas debuted in August 2022, was sent back down, came back in September, was back in late March 2023, and sent back down in July never to be seen again in 2023. CES was doing everything Wallner was doing for a team in the "get the young guys experience" part of their rebuild and it took until July 17 for him to debut. 

There is no straight answer to what a guy has to do to "force their way up." It depends on way too many variables. Martin can wait his turn until there's an opening in CF, LF, 2B, etc. Then he can come up and show he's got a chance to be a real player.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I would've lost a bet if I'd had to recall what actually happened. I didn't like it in real time at all, but I'm less annoyed now. With Gallo being the real cause of frustration for me now.

I think we both know there's no exact answer to that question. So many things play into it. But we saw it last year. You have to be succeeding in AAA (or AA for some guys) when an opportunity opens in the majors (which they do every year) and you have to hold your own when you get your first shot. At least don't look completely overwhelmed. Then a lot depends on how long that opportunity is. If you go back down you start the cycle again. There are not a lot of jobs on contending teams that are just handed to rookies. Mike Trout was sent back down. It took until late June for Wander Franco to get his shot. Adley Rutschman got his shot on May 21st of 2022 compared to Julien on May 20, 2023 and Adley was the #1 pick out of college in the same draft. Gavin Lux was a top 100 (top 10 even) prospect and has bounced back and forth between the majors and the minors since 2019 (then hurt this year). Evan Carter was a top 50 prospect absolutely slaughtering the minors for the 3rd straight year and wasn't called up until September 8th. Noelvi Marte wasn't called up until the end of August. Curtis Mead wasn't called up until August. Then got sent back down before being called back up in September. Miguel Vargas debuted in August 2022, was sent back down, came back in September, was back in late March 2023, and sent back down in July never to be seen again in 2023. CES was doing everything Wallner was doing for a team in the "get the young guys experience" part of their rebuild and it took until July 17 for him to debut. 

There is no straight answer to what a guy has to do to "force their way up." It depends on way too many variables. Martin can wait his turn until there's an opening in CF, LF, 2B, etc. Then he can come up and show he's got a chance to be a real player.

Adley was held back for another year of control, likely costing Bal a playoff spot.....a lot of those guys should have come up sooner, which is kind of my point. And, they often go back down, meaning the sooner you get them up, the sooner they come back up....we'll likely disagree on this. I'm ok on this.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Adley was held back for another year of control, likely costing Bal a playoff spot.....a lot of those guys should have come up sooner, which is kind of my point. And, they often go back down, meaning the sooner you get them up, the sooner they come back up....we'll likely disagree on this. I'm ok on this.

We will definitely disagree if you think handing starting spots at the beginning of the season to guys who "often go back down" is the right answer for building a contending team. Which, I believe, is the point of this article. When you build your team heading into the season around guys who "often go back down" you're not building a team with the best chance to win the most games they can.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Among logical fallacies, the Fallacy Fallacy is one of the more popular ones, as well.

Joshing, of course, but can't a man make a turn of phrase to mean that they'll be here eventually but don't need to be rushed? (I'm also not sure that we're describing the appeal to authority here, but I digress)

Socrates is a woman.  All women are mortal.  Therefore Socrates is mortal. 

I was probably more direct than I should have been.  And I enjoy a good turn of phrase as well as the next rolling stone who gathers no moss.  It's just that, the concept that players will be brought up when they're ready and not before, is too often used to squelch debate that questions what the "authorities" in the front office are doing.  If the FO is simply going to be the decider, which ultimately they are, then we might as well close the comments section, and all the opinion articles while we're at it.  Just report the transactions as they come.

That's a lot of meaning assigned to a simple turn of phrase, and if not much of it was behind what you wrote, I'm sorry to have extrapolated unfairly.

[SteveLV]

If Lee's bat plays its way into the MLB lineup, IMO you slide him into 2B.  The value is that he can play both SS and 3B, too, which many 2B cannot.  Does anyone expect Correa and Lewis to play 162 games next year?  I sure don't.

I suspect--unless he tears it up in Spring Training--that Lee starts the year in AAA and is the first infielder called up.

Whether the Twins deal from their IF depth to bolster the rest of the lineup is TBD.

[roger]

Interesting article, but….

Is Lee the third baseman of the future?  No.  Lewis is the third baseman of the present and future.  Don’t know where Lee will play or even if he does.  But unless Lewis is injured it ain’t gonna be third.

[Greggory Masterson]

31 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's just that, the concept that players will be brought up when they're ready and not before, is too often used to squelch debate that questions what the "authorities" in the front office are doing.  If the FO is simply going to be the decider, which ultimately they are,

Ah, I get what you’re saying—that wasn’t my intention with that phrase. It was more of a “calm down, they will be MLB players, but they shouldn’t force it.” Just because they’re not on the roster at the beginning of the year doesn’t mean they won’t be on it at the end.

[Greggory Masterson]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

Interesting article, but….

Is Lee the third baseman of the future?  No.  Lewis is the third baseman of the present and future.  Don’t know where Lee will play or even if he does.  But unless Lewis is injured it ain’t gonna be third.

Lewis profiles much better at second base and Lee profiles much better at third. I’m going to continue beating this drum until Derek Falvey pries it from my cold, dead hands.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Ztretter37 said:

We don't need to sign a backup centerfielder when our prospect pool is good enough. Same with the infield.  Quit signing 1 year rentals when we have the players available.  If your goid enough to be drafted in the 1st round, your good enough to play in the majors

 

Wish that were true that every first round draft choice was good enough to play in the majors. . https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=1&year_ID=2014&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

That is the firstt round from 10 years ago. Only /4 of them have accumulated 5 bwar 65% did not make it to even 1 bwar accumulated.  

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Lewis profiles much better at second base and Lee profiles much better at third. I’m going to continue beating this drum until Derek Falvey pries it from my cold, dead hands.

Lewis played more than a handful of games in the Minors at 2 spots, SS and 3rd Base.

He is not playing Short Stop so his position will be 3 rd Base, the Twins are not going to make him flail away at a spot he a whopping whole 1 game in the Minors.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Lewis profiles much better at second base and Lee profiles much better at third. 

What’s more, is that both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee currently profile best at shortstop. Even last season, Lee still played virtually every game at shortstop, despite no path to short in the majors.

Anyway, like Lewis, Lee is a lock to be a solid major league contributor. I never once pumped the brakes on Lewis and I will continue to be bullish on Lee as well.