Pump the Brakes On These Prospects

[twinsfan02]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I disagree. I think Lee is eminently tradable. I'd go for a Lee plus prospects for Freddy Peralta all day long (from both teams' sides, really).

That is horrible! Are you joking?

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

That is horrible! Are you joking?

No. Freddy Peralta is really good and his contract is ridiculously team-friendly.

[twinsfan02]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No. Freddy Peralta is really good and his contract is ridiculously team-friendly.

Freddy Peralta is not really good. He would be the number 4 starter on the twins and that is not worth your number 2 prospect and more. If you are going to trade Lee (which they shouldn't) you should at least go get Corbin Burnes. Peralta is also 27 years old which is far too old.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, twinsfan02 said:

Freddy Peralta is not really good. He would be the number 4 starter on the twins and that is not worth your number 2 prospect and more. If you are going to trade Lee (which they shouldn't) you should at least go get Corbin Burnes. Peralta is also 27 years old which is far too old.

I'd much rather have three years of Peralta over one year of Burnes, especially given the newly-imposed payroll constraints of the Twins.

You're both underrating Peralta and overrating Lee. Lee is probably a global #40-60 prospect this winter. So was Aaron Hicks at one point. Lee is a nice prospect but given the infield assets the Twins already have in place, he can easily be swapped for someone at a position of need.

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I disagree. I think Lee is eminently tradable. I'd go for a Lee plus prospects for Freddy Peralta all day long (from both teams' sides, really).

That seems about right given three years of control with 2 of them club options at only $8M.  How about this comp.  Berrios has averaged 2.7 WAR over the last 3 years.  He gets $17m/year.  Peralta has averaged 3 WAR.  Berrios is at $18.3M.  It would take a significant prospect package to get Peralta but is he the guy we need?  He gives you a chance to win a lot of regular season games but he is not a replacement for Gray.

BTW .... I too do not believe Lee has looked like an elite prospect.  Very good prospect but not elite.  Peralta for Lee + another decent prospect is one of the more reasonable trade suggestions I have seen here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

That seems about right given three years of control with 2 of them club options at only $8M.  How about this comp.  Berrios has averaged 2.7 WAR over the last 3 years.  He gets $17m/year.  Peralta has averaged 3 WAR.  Berrios is at $18.3M.  It would take a significant prospect package to get Peralta but is he the guy we need?  He gives you a chance to win a lot of regular season games but he is not a replacement for Gray.

He's not a replacement for 2023 Gray but he's a replacement for Sonny Gray's median performance.

Replacing Gray's 2023 season will be virtually impossible. But Peralta gives you a good shot at getting one of those freak 5+ win seasons that players of his calibre can pull off from time to time.

[Linus]

Not to be snarky but we should pump the brakes on all prospects. Guys get weeded out at every level including the jump from AAA to the big leagues. I believe a mlb team starts the year with around 175 minor leaguers. If you consider 4 years as a typical development cycle and each year an avg of two guys graduate and stay in the big leagues that roughly a 5% success rate. Obviously not all prospects are equal but mathematically almost none of them will ever make it yet we see many posts listing multiple can’t miss prospects. The reality is the vast majority fail. I realize they provide hope for us fans but all prospects are suspects until they are not. 

[harmony55]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:01 AM, chpettit19 said:

Has Seattle gotten off their "Crawford is our SS" stance? From my recollection all their SS chasing has been with the goal to actually move them to 2B because Crawford was their guy at short.

J,P, Crawford, a 28-year-old who this year tied Dansby Swanson for fourth among all shortsops with 4.9 fWAR, remains under contract for three more seasons at a bargain $31 million.

As a point of reference, this year Edouard Julien topped Minnesota position players with 2.8 fWAR.