Two Reasons Why Sonny Gray Could Accept the Qualifying Offer

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Question: If he rejects the QO but then signs here as a free agent do we still get the compensatory draft pick? My assumption is that we do.

What would we be compensated for, in that scenario?

Allowing that would be opening the door to all kinds of front office shenanigans.

[DocBauer]

He accepts the QO for one reason and one reason only:

He's spoken a lot at the end of the season about a new found joy in baseball as his kids are now a part of it. They've been able to watch him, and do well, and see him on a winning team in a playoff atmosphere. The Twins are poised to reach the post season again in 2024, and he fits in well and seems to enjoy himself here. So he might want to go year by year and have the luxury of the freedom to go where he wants, when he wants, and not be tied in to a city.

Retirement isn't an issue as he could sign a 3year deal with someone and retire after the first year if he wants. 

He's going to get a solid offer and will almost certainly reject the QO. The question remains how much will the Twins offer, and will he be back or sign elsewhere.

[TwinsDr2021]

I personally can't see any reason to accept the QO. Even if he told the Twins he is only going to play one more year he can and I think the Twins would give him more than that. If he thinks he might play more than 1 year why accept less? Like someone said above I can't see the union or his agent thinking it is a good idea.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Retirement isn't an issue as he could sign a 3year deal with someone and retire after the first year if he wants. 

Exactly this.  He strikes me as the kind of guy that will retire on his own terms when he feels like it - which most guys won’t do.  I have serious doubts that he would want to keep playing if he loses his ability to be competitive doing so.  That helps insulate the contract from becoming very bad.  

[Schmoeman5]

Sonnys a bulldog. What happens when bulldogs run into Rottweilers. They become play toys. All these stats which are being used. I don't get. So based on his 2023 season his value was 42 million. Really? When King Felix had those marginal win loss records he was dominant. In no way was Gray's season remotely close to Cole. And that's where the value comparison comes from. More than 50% of his starts were losses.  He gave a solid 5 innings and then withered. If Rocco would have let him go longer those numbers would have gone up substantially. Offer him the 1 year 20.3 and give him some nice parting gifts for his service. 👋 

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I don't think 3/$60 million is going to get it done. That's basically what Bassitt got last year, and Sonny Gray is coming off a better season.  It's probably gonna be at least 3/$75 million. I don't think I would go there given his age, but I don't think that will fit into the Twins payroll anyway, so it's a moot point.  

This is Gray's last and best shot at a big deal. He will hit the market. Good for him, bad for the Twins. 

I agree with your logic but I'm in between your number and the 3/$60m prediction. I think he'll get 3 years.$65-66m. I'm in favor of re-signing him for that price.  I fear you might be correct that anything like that will be more than the Twins will be willing to pay. 

[MNBearCat]

Third reason - he and/or his agent got hit in the head with a baseball.

[Shaitan]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Pavano had been incredibly healthy and durable when he hit the market, 55 starts and 420 total innings over the previous two years. I don't think durability was the on-field factor holding him back. Honestly not sure what off-field issues you are alluding to but I don't remember that being talked about during his free agency journey. The draft pick compensation was a really big issue in my recollection. 

I imagine the off-field issue would be Pavano's entire tenure in NY.

Which makes Sonny Gray seem popular in NY in comparison.

[nicksaviking]

No chance he accepts, because even the Twins would surely be willing to extend him an offer that would top the QO, so even if he was dead set on playing here, he'd play here under better terms.

As for playing for a winner, he seems like the perfect replacement for Charlie Morton in Atlanta; I'll bet he's near the top of their list of wants, and it's hard to top the 'winning' situation there. And while St. Louis was a loser last year, they normally aren't and are probably only a couple of starters away from being a contender. Both cities are closer to his hometown as well, should he be concerned with that sort of thing.

Twins likely are front runners to retain him, but not with the QO.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Sonnys a bulldog. What happens when bulldogs run into Rottweilers. They become play toys. All these stats which are being used. I don't get. So based on his 2023 season his value was 42 million. Really? When King Felix had those marginal win loss records he was dominant. In no way was Gray's season remotely close to Cole. And that's where the value comparison comes from. More than 50% of his starts were losses.  He gave a solid 5 innings and then withered. If Rocco would have let him go longer those numbers would have gone up substantially. Offer him the 1 year 20.3 and give him some nice parting gifts for his service. 👋 

People often take fangraphs "value" which is a calculation of WAR produced per dollar spent and interpret that as the players value which it is not.  No team goes into a free agency negotiation under the premise 1 WAR is worth $8M.  The reality is that so many free agents are an absoluter bust that the average production is far lower than what teams would determine their value.   

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

People often take fangraphs "value" which is a calculation of WAR produced per dollar spent and interpret that as the players value which it is not.  No team goes into a free agency negotiation under the premise 1 WAR is worth $8M.  The reality is that so many free agents are an absoluter bust that the average production is far lower than what teams would determine their value.   

There's only 2 ways to look at this:

1) The teams know that some players will bust and are content to get the average production per dollar that they're getting out of free agency.

2) The people who run teams are absolute morons who can't properly price players and get fleeced all the time by agents.

Not every team has the same $$/value calculations. Large market team make more marginal revenue per additional win. Playoff teams make more money per additional win than rebuilding teams. The Fangraphs number is an aggregate that is an extravagance for the Athletics and a bargain for the Mets. Still, prices are set by the market and Fangraphs is just reporting the market value.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently.  The first is in CF.  Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole.

The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots.  Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay.  Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day.

BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary.  Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive.  This is where our trade capital could come in handy.   Just no more Mahle’s…..

You want 35 yo Maeda who’s entire MLB career has been hampered by injuries and sports a 4.0 FIP when healthy, but you don’t want 29 yo Mahle who has been hampered by injuries (and is out for ‘24) and sports a 4.2 FIP? Ok

personally i think they have 4 3rd to 4th starters and need a second starter to push the rest of the rotation down a rung

[Einheri]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Retirement isn't an issue as he could sign a 3year deal with someone and retire after the first year if he wants. 

That's why the Twins should offer him a 3-year offer, something that might seem low at 3 years/$62M, but give Sonny a player option for year 2, maybe a mutual option for year 3.

[minman1982]

Here is what I would offer Gray: 3 years/$70M total with player option after each year. Maybe a structure like $30M the first season, and $20M the following two seasons. Put some additional incentives in there that can make it worth up to about $90-100M total. 

This assumes he rejects the QO that the Twins are going to offer.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There's only 2 ways to look at this:

1) The teams know that some players will bust and are content to get the average production per dollar that they're getting out of free agency.

2) The people who run teams are absolute morons who can't properly price players and get fleeced all the time by agents.

Not every team has the same $$/value calculations. Large market team make more marginal revenue per additional win. Playoff teams make more money per additional win than rebuilding teams. The Fangraphs number is an aggregate that is an extravagance for the Athletics and a bargain for the Mets. Still, prices are set by the market and Fangraphs is just reporting the market value.

I agree to a degree.  You make the same point I have made in the past about the value per WAR being far different for small and large markets.  Therefore, how can $8M per WAR be the universal value?  However, I don't agree that team's are content to get average production.  Producing average production for free agency is not an effective way to build a team even for the largest markets and it's a recipe for failure for mid and small market teams.  Average production in free agency does not produce a contender just as average success in any other aspect of roster construction won't produce a contender.  Team's don't plan for the average or accept the average because do so is a failure.   

[DocBauer]

58 minutes ago, Einheri said:

That's why the Twins should offer him a 3-year offer, something that might seem low at 3 years/$62M, but give Sonny a player option for year 2, maybe a mutual option for year 3.

I don't disagree with this idea at all. And while the Twins are far more "plugged in" than we as fans are, I doubt they 100% aware of Gray's thoughts, reflections, and intent. Heck, Gray may be 100% sure of what he wants to do, or will do, over the next 3yrs, lol.

I don't th8nk 3yrs at $62M is low, IMO, though others might disagree. I would offer him something very close, 1yr at $25M, second year around $22M, and some sort of player or incentive based, or mutual option for a 3rd year at $18. He gets almost double his career earnings over 3yrs. The Twins pay more upfront for 2024, and get a small savings each of the following 2yrs to mitigate other raises in payroll. 

[Fat Calvin]

One other possible incentive to sign a one-year deal is that this year's free agents are loaded with pitchers and lacking in hitters.  Gray could take a 20 million dollar one-year deal now, and if he does well (a big if) he can cash in next year in a weaker pitcher's market.  It's a thought, probably not even worth posting--I don't know if I even buy it; but, what the hell.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

One other possible incentive to sign a one-year deal is that this year's free agents are loaded with pitchers and lacking in hitters.  Gray could take a 20 million dollar one-year deal now, and if he does well (a big if) he can cash in next year in a weaker pitcher's market.  It's a thought, probably not even worth posting--I don't know if I even buy it; but, what the hell.

That's a better idea if you're 29 and not if you're 34 and coming off the best year of your career.

I don't understand why people think Gray would want a cheap player option. That would only happen if he wanted to opt out and pursue a higher contract later. 36 year old pitchers are not typically the ones who want to opt out. If he wanted to "opt out" and retire, he can always retire. Nobody can be forced to play major league baseball against their will. It's an employment contract, not slavery.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Producing average production for free agency is not an effective way to build a team even for the largest markets and it's a recipe for failure for mid and small market teams.  Average production in free agency does not produce a contender just as average success in any other aspect of roster construction won't produce a contender.  Team's don't plan for the average or accept the average because do so is a failure.   

I don't think anyone is trying to build a team 100% out of free agency. If teams don't plan for the average, then, on average, they're going to be disappointed. Planning for all of your free agent bets to work out is a good way to lose your job.

[Otaknam]

I expect Gray will reject the QO and become a free agent. But I’d be very surprised if he gets three years for $60 million, given his injury history. That’s a lot for a 5-6 inning starter, even by today’s MLB salary structure. I hope he comes back, but I don’t expect the Twins to offer more than 2 years. 

[miracleb]

22 hours ago, Shaitan said:

The only reason Gray accepts is if he's planning to retire in 1 year. Which you kinda-sorta said in the "cares more about winning" section.

Which we all know....he isn't considering.   Which we all know....no one EVER considered if they thought they could get paid.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think anyone is trying to build a team 100% out of free agency. If teams don't plan for the average, then, on average, they're going to be disappointed. Planning for all of your free agent bets to work out is a good way to lose your job.

You are bending this to suit your argument.  When did I say all of the Free Agents need to work out or anything similar.  I said that producing at the average rate for free agents is not going to help the cause much.  For example, if the twins spend $40M on Gray / MAT and a $10M OF bat and produce 5 WAR, that's not a winning formula.  They got 5 WAR out of Gray alone.  They need tom produce 7-9 WAT to be effective which is more like 5-6M per WAR and that's consistent with what will be offered.

[Nine of twelve]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

What would we be compensated for, in that scenario?

Allowing that would be opening the door to all kinds of front office shenanigans.

I guess I can understand the shenanigans aspect. My rationale is it seems inequitable to me that if a team signs a similar free agent player to a similar contract the team would retain the compensatory pick. If a player declines the QO and the team that made the QO loses the compensatory pick for signing that player on the open market that puts the team at a significant disadvantage in negotiating with that player. I haven't looked into the rules that apply to this scenario so maybe that's covered somehow.

[saviking]

I'm waiting for the 10 reasons he won't be back article now ..

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You are bending this to suit your argument.  When did I say all of the Free Agents need to work out or anything similar.  I said that producing at the average rate for free agents is not going to help the cause much.  For example, if the twins spend $40M on Gray / MAT and a $10M OF bat and produce 5 WAR, that's not a winning formula.  They got 5 WAR out of Gray alone.  They need tom produce 7-9 WAT to be effective which is more like 5-6M per WAR and that's consistent with what will be offered.

But offering $6M per projected WAR means you usually lose out on the player entirely because you are outbid. You get left shopping the clearance aisle.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I expect Gray will reject the QO and become a free agent. But I’d be very surprised if he gets three years for $60 million, given his injury history. That’s a lot for a 5-6 inning starter, even by today’s MLB salary structure. I hope he comes back, but I don’t expect the Twins to offer more than 2 years. 

If Sonny Gray gets less than 3 years $60 million and someone other than the Twins signs him I will be royally pissed off that the Twins didn't go over that bid. Gray was one of the top 5 pitchers in the major leagues in 2023.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

But offering $6M per projected WAR means you usually lose out on the player entirely because you are outbid. You get left shopping the clearance aisle.

I don't think that equates in general.  Do 3 WAR guys get 25M/year or 4WAR guys get $32M?  We know the 6 war guys don't get 48.  I think the really premium guys do get a higher salary per projected WAR.  It makes sense, the superstars are a bigger draw and they have a bigger impact.  They are also signed by teams with double the revenue who of course can afford twice the amount per WAR.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think that equates in general.  Do 3 WAR guys get 25M/year or 4WAR guys get $32M?  We know the 6 war guys don't get 48.  I think the really premium guys do get a higher salary per projected WAR.  It makes sense, the superstars are a bigger draw and they have a bigger impact.  They are also signed by teams with double the revenue who of course can afford twice the amount per WAR.

The 6 WAR guys do get $48, it's just spread over more years. See Miguel Cabrera, for example. Dead money at the end of the deal where the player is producing nothing special.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I would be shocked if Falvine commits more than $20M per year to a pitcher in his mid-thirties, unless it’s a one year deal.

I would be shocked if Sonny Gray can’t get at least 2/$40M (meaning he could certainly do better than 1/$20M on the open market).

These two opinions, when combined, tell me that Gray will reject the QO, Falvine will not make a competitive offer, and Gray will pitch somewhere else next year.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The 6 WAR guys do get $48, it's just spread over more years. See Miguel Cabrera, for example. Dead money at the end of the deal where the player is producing nothing special.

We are calculating the WAR per dollar based on an assumed AAV so what you are saying makes absolutely no sense.  The AAV can't change. 

I think what you are trying to say is that the per $ reaches in this theoretical value over $8M/WAR.  Did you do the math?  Let's come up with a reasonable example. If a player expected to average 6 WAR gets a 12 year $320M deal, they need to produce 53 WAR over 12 years o produce 1 WAR per 6M.  At 8M the need to produce 40 WAR.  Let's say the player only produces as expected for 7 years.  That's 42 WAR.  Do you think they are assuming that player produces nothing for 5 years?  It happens but that's not what they plan.  If that player does something like 4 / 2.5 / 1.5 / 1 / 0 WAR in the final 5 years that equates to $6.5M per WAR.

I have already said there is a willingness and an ability among the largest markets to pay more on a per WAR basis for these superstars.  It's the decided advantage held by clubs with 50 or 100% more revenue than the Twins.  However, the plan is not to pay $8M and it's not a success when it happens.