Does Simeon Woods Richardson Have a Future With the Twins?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Simeon Woods Richardson's career with the Minnesota Twins organization has been a story of highs, lows, and great uncertainty. Does the 23-year-old former Top 100 prospect have a future with the Twins?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

 

Simeon Woods Richardson is a young and spry 23-year-old, and he wants you to know that. In an interview with ABC 6 News Rochester, Zone Coverage, and Twins Daily's Theodore Tollefson, Woods Richardson stated, "I’m still one of the youngest guys here. I may not carry myself like it, but I’m still one of the youngest guys here."

Being young and spry is, of course, a favorable situation to find oneself in. To be young is to be strong, full of energy and stamina, and sharp-minded. These qualities ought to be used on something of purpose, and Woods Richardson is using his in an attempt to make a living as a professional baseball pitcher.

I, as a fellow "young and spry" 23-year-old, am using mine in an attempt to be a public school teacher. Now, Woods Richardson has the potential to make millions of dollars, have access to the best healthcare in the world, and travel around the United States and the Canadian province of Ontario for free. I, on the other hand, have the opportunity to make roughly $50,000 a year, access to unreliable state healthcare, and the ability to travel to the Wisconsin Dells, barring I get an increase on my credit card spending limit (please, Discover, I want to go to Mt. Olympus). 

Obviously, one unnamed individual is winning here, but author Kurt Vonnegut once proclaimed, "Teaching, may I say, is the noblest profession of all in a democracy." Notice how he didn't mention professional baseball players?

Regardless, Woods Richardson is prime to contribute to a Major League Baseball team. Unfortunately, he has yet to do so. 

Since being drafted by the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft out of I. H. Kempner High School in Sugar Land, Texas, Woods Richardson has been a part of two prominent league-altering trades and three organizations. 

Here is a brief history of said trades:

• (July 28, 2019) The New York Mets traded pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Toronto Blue Jays for right-handed starting pitcher Marcus Stroman and cash considerations.
• (July 30, 2021) The Toronto Blue Jays traded pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson and infield/outfield prospect Austin Martin to the Minnesota Twins for starting pitcher Jose Berríos. 

A silver lining for Woods Richardson being a prominent component of significant trades is that he is a wanted commodity. Unfortunately, he has yet to find consistent footing with a sole organization. 

Woods Richardson never pitched for the Mets or Blue Jays at the Major League level. However, he has made two Major League appearances for the Twins, including his Major League debut against the Detroit Tigers on October 2, 2022. 

Woods Richardson impressed in his Major League debut, facing 20 total batters over five innings pitched, giving up two earned runs while walking two and striking out three. Woods Richardson didn't make the Twins 2023 Opening Day roster and made only one Major League appearance, facing 24 total batters and giving up five earned runs while walking three and striking out five over 4 2/3 innings of stretch relief against the Washington Nationals on April 22.

On April 23, Woods Richardson was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul and spent the rest of the 2023 season with the Saints. Woods Richardson struggled mightily upon his demotion, sporting a 7.38 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in early June. Luckily, a switch flipped for Woods Richardson, and he was able to manufacture the lowest ERA, opponent BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA of all Triple-A starting pitchers from mid-June to mid-September. 

Woods Richardson's quick turnaround is what the kids like to call “an unprecedented stark contrast in performance.”

Woods Richardson finished his 2023 Triple-A campaign with a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .253 opponent BA with 109 hits allowed, 13 home runs allowed, 61 walks, and 96 strikeouts. Though these numbers are overall uninspiring, considering where Woods Richardson was in mid-June, his late-season turnaround is unequivocally impressive.

Combining Woods Richardson's immense early struggles with his incredible finish to the season, it is difficult to get a grasp on his potential as a future Major League starting pitcher. Though this is the case, it appears that Woods Richardson is destined to be a productive Major League-caliber starting pitcher, and his Stuff+ at the Triple-A level greatly infers that.

Stuff+ is a pitching-specific sabermetric created by Max Bay and Eno Sarris. According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.

Woods Richardson threw 1,985 pitches over 24 appearances at the Triple-A level this season, and according to Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report spreadsheet, Woods Richardson finished the 2023 season ranked 10th out of 1239 Triple-A pitchers in Stuff+ with a rating of 116.9. For reference, rookie pitchers who made immediate contributions for their clubs, Bobby Miller (124.9) and Tanner Bibee (120.2), finished ahead of Woods Richardson in 3rd and 8th place, respectively.

Woods Richardson also finished ahead of fellow young pitchers who pitched well during their debut 2023 seasons in AJ Smith-Shawvver (113.9) and Gavin Williams (113.6), who finished in 19th and 20th place, respectively. 

Now, Stuff+ doesn't attempt to predict whether a pitcher will be successful or not, but what it does do is measure how effective or "nasty" their pitches are. Young pitchers who throw nasty pitches, like Miller and Bibee, tend to be successful at the Major League level.

What is interesting about Woods Richardson is that his pitches are "nasty" in a different way from the traditionally effective Miller and Bibee. Whereas Miller and Bibee can overpower hitters with overpowering fastballs and complementary offspeed pitches, Woods Richardson tends to outmatch hitters due to his unique release point and pitch movement combination.

According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ values the release point of a pitcher. So, some pitchers with unique release points, movement combinations, and, in turn, effective pitch deception tactics score very well despite lower velocities.

Woods Richardson has a unique overhead release point. Also, Woods Richardson, a right-handed pitcher, maxes out at 92-93 MPH. Combined, these two Woods Richardson-specific quirks create deception and play into the more obscure elements of pitching that Stuff+ values, making him a prime candidate to be highly valued by Bay and Sarris' Stuff+ model. 

Interestingly, Sarris' Pitcher Report model projects Woods Richardson to have a lackluster 2024 season as the 629th-best pitcher out of the 4017 qualified pitchers between the Majors and all Minor League levels. 

To add context, here is how Sarris' model projects Woods Richardson's 2024 campaign to play out:

• 4.73 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 21% K%, 9.5% BB%, .290 BABIP, 116 Stuff+, 142 strikeouts, 4.6 innings pitched/game, 146 innings pitched

Sarris has Woods Richardson projected to finish just behind pending free agent Lucas Giolito (628th place) and ahead of Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez (636th place) in performance during the 2024 season. 

Woods Richardson's projected statistics are undesirable at the surface level, particularly after how well the Twins starting rotation performed during the 2023 season. However, getting this performance out of a fringe-fifth starter would be ideal. 

"Fringe-fifth starter" is precisely how I would describe Woods Richardson's impending role with the Twins for the 2024 season, much like his role during the 2023 season.

Going into the 2024 season, Woods Richardson is going to have to come into Spring Training prepared after what is hopefully a productive offseason to apply himself and compete with fellow "fringe-fifth starters" in fellow 40-man roster spot occupiers in Louie Varland, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands for a more meaningful role.

Woods Richardson has the tools and skill to succeed at the Major League level, as evidenced by his impressive Stuff+ and remarkable last three months of his 2023 Triple-A campaign. Nonetheless, he still needs to prove himself to be a viable Major League pitcher if he wants to be part of the Twins' plans beyond 2024.

Do you think Woods Richardson has a future with the Twins? What do you make of Woods Richardson's remarkable three-month stretch to end his 2023 Triple-A season? Comment below.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I think he's 23 and we don't know yet, but anyone giving up on a 23 year old pitcher probably with his stuff is being premature. He's 23....

[Natron]

I would've bet the farm that he was 74 years old. Surprised to learn he's only 23.

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think he's 23 and we don't know yet, but anyone giving up on a 23 year old pitcher probably with his stuff is being premature. He's 23....

23 and 30 days to be specific.  Turned 23 after a full season at AAA.  That's a good thing.  He's years ahead of pace but being at AAA puts him in the front of mind.  Perspective. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I just don't see the upside with SWR. He doesn't throw hard or have good movement on any of his pitches (except maybe his slider), and he struggles with command. It's very hard for me to be optimistic about a guy who can't command sub-par offerings. I hope he can turn into the pitcher we thought we were getting, but I would not count on it.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

23 and 30 days to be specific.  Turned 23 after a full season at AAA.  That's a good thing.  He's years ahead of pace but being at AAA puts him in the front of mind.  Perspective. 

He is only 23, but saying he is years ahead of pace can be misleading. He isn't years ahead of being a stud major league pitchers, but he is probably years of ahead of being a good major league relief pitcher. My hope was he was going to be a stud major league starter and I believe that is gone now, but my new hope is he is a good relief pitcher for a few years.

[Blyleven2011]

Started the season at AAA and things went bad for 3 month ... It's better he finished strong his last 2 plus months to prepare for spring training   , he may start again in AAA  but should have some opportunities  in 2024 Twins  ...

Still young  to give up on but next year will probably be the decisive season if he stays on the 40 man roster ...

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is only 23, but saying he is years ahead of pace can be misleading. He isn't years ahead of being a stud major league pitchers, but he is probably years of ahead of being a good major league relief pitcher. My hope was he was going to be a stud major league starter and I believe that is gone now, but my new hope is he is a good relief pitcher for a few years.

He's not Hunter Greene or Spencer Strider, agreed.  But the list of studs this age is pretty short.  He is still well ahead of the pace for a major league starter.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

He's not Hunter Greene or Spencer Strider, agreed.  But the list of studs this age is pretty short.  He is still well ahead of the pace for a major league starter.

I would give you that if he was really good last year and was forcing his way into the starting staff as a 23 1/2 year old, but he isn't. I am not saying he can't be a good major league starter (I hope he is) what I am saying is most of the really good starters have either established themselves by 23 1/2, or were really good in the minors the year before and just are an opportunity away from stepping in and taking the job. I wish him the best and I wouldn't give up on him yet.

I will add it is funny that Festa who is 6 months older prospect rating is going up and SWR is going down, and SWR has been pitching at higher levels than Festa.

[Brandon]

Since you brought them up, what is the stuff + for Winder, Sands, Headrick, and Varland?

SWR could be this generations Matt Guerrier.  While not as ideal as a solid 3 starter, still not a loss either.  

[jorgenswest]

I think he fits as the 7th starter between Varland and Festa ready in AAA for next year. That will give him 6-10 starts if he is not passed by Festa and more if he makes the most of the opportunity.

[DJL44]

Still a chance to add a little velocity. Even 1 MPH average increase would help a lot.

[cmoss84]

I clicked on the Fangraphs link, but was unable to find out who finished 1-3 in plus+...Miller is pretty dirty and was at 4. Anyone know who 1-3 were?

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

I clicked on the Fangraphs link, but was unable to find out who finished 1-3 in plus+...Miller is pretty dirty and was at 4. Anyone know who 1-3 were?

FanGraphs doesn't have that information. It's on Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report Google Sheets spreadsheet, but you need to have a subscription to The Athletic to access it, so I didn't provide a link to it. I read the list wrong initially, and that's my bad, but Miller is actually 3rd on the list. First on the list is Oakland Athletics' prospect Mason Miller (131.3 Stuff+) and in second place is fellow Athletics prospect Joe Boyle (131.2 Stuff+). Mason Miller, Boyle, and Bobby Miller all have nasty stuff!

Edited October 27, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Riverbrian]

He's 23 and he has two options remaining. 

What he is today is not what he will be tomorrow. We have coaches who work to improve young players. We have data to guide the improvement, we have all kinds of video doo-hickeys to develop a young player with potential. 

As long as the Twins feel he is worthy of 40 man roster spot, they feel he has a future.   

 

[Cody Schoenmann]

50 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Since you brought them up, what is the stuff + for Winder, Sands, Headrick, and Varland?

SWR could be this generations Matt Guerrier.  While not as ideal as a solid 3 starter, still not a loss either.  

I don't have access to what their Stuff+ was at the Major League level, but I can provide you their Stuff+ while pitching at Triple-A:

Varland  - 101.1 Stuff+

Winder - 98.8 Stuff+

Headrick - 96.4 Stuff+

Sands - 95.2 Stuff+

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[cmoss84]

50 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

FanGraphs doesn't have that information. It's on Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report Google Sheets spreadsheet, but you need to have a subscription to The Athletic to pay for it, so I didn't provide a link to it. I read the list wrong initially, and that's my bad, but Miller is actually 3rd on the list. First on the list is Oakland Athletics' prospect Mason Miller (131.3 Stuff+) and in second place is fellow Athletics prospect Joe Boyle (131.2 Stuff+). Mason Miller, Boyle, and Bobby Miller all have nasty stuff!

The A's have some bad boys coming up! I wonder who they will get traded to! 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think he's 23 and we don't know yet, but anyone giving up on a 23 year old pitcher probably with his stuff is being premature. He's 23....

The challenge, I think, is how long you can keep him on the 40-man. Now I certainly don't think it's a concern for 2024, but beyond that starts to get questionable if he's not able to better establish himself in his age 23 season. That's just the nature of options and 40-man rules. He'll still have an option left for 2025, but I think we all hope other guys continue to improve and impress and then you start looking at 40-man spots.

"Giving up" can be such a loaded phrase there, right? Sometimes it's not about "giving up" on a guy, but they just get passed over. You only have 40 spots. You can still believe in a 24 year old (after next year) and remove them from the 40-man simply because somebody has passed them over. Will be interesting to see how he does next year. I think it's a big year for him, and probably the last season for the Balazovic, Sands, Winder, etc. group. At least I hope it is in the sense that I hope new guys come up and surpass these guys who seem to be stalling.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Still a chance to add a little velocity. Even 1 MPH average increase would help a lot.

I've read that he doesn't use his legs much when he throws and that limits his velocity. He sounds like the type of pitcher the Twins have had some success with by incorporating their legs into their throwing motion and increasing velocity. This guy sounds like a classic minor leader that could benefit from going to Driveline or something similar to work on velocity. If he can even get the 93 – 95, that can make a huge difference. 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I don't have access to what their Stuff+ was at the Major League level, but I can provide you their Stuff+ while pitching at Triple-A:

Varland  - 101.1 Stuff+

Winder - 98.8 Stuff+

Headrick - 96.4 Stuff+

Sands - 95.2 Stuff+

 

I wonder what Varland’s stuff plus is as a reliever? 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The challenge, I think, is how long you can keep him on the 40-man. Now I certainly don't think it's a concern for 2024, but beyond that starts to get questionable if he's not able to better establish himself in his age 23 season. That's just the nature of options and 40-man rules. He'll still have an option left for 2025, but I think we all hope other guys continue to improve and impress and then you start looking at 40-man spots.

"Giving up" can be such a loaded phrase there, right? Sometimes it's not about "giving up" on a guy, but they just get passed over. You only have 40 spots. You can still believe in a 24 year old (after next year) and remove them from the 40-man simply because somebody has passed them over. Will be interesting to see how he does next year. I think it's a big year for him, and probably the last season for the Balazovic, Sands, Winder, etc. group. At least I hope it is in the sense that I hope new guys come up and surpass these guys who seem to be stalling.

I was talking about fans ripping the trade and that SWR will never be anything (see this site and others). He's clearly not going anywhere for 24....but I agree, it is a big year for his future in MN.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I just don't see the upside with SWR. He doesn't throw hard or have good movement on any of his pitches (except maybe his slider), and he struggles with command. It's very hard for me to be optimistic about a guy who can't command sub-par offerings. I hope he can turn into the pitcher we thought we were getting, but I would not count on it.

No upside???  He has great Stuff+!!   That must mean something.   I love magical advanced metrics that can turn a mediocre actual pitcher into a theoretical All Star.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

No upside???  He has great Stuff+!!   That must mean something.   I love magical advanced metrics that can turn a mediocre actual pitcher into a theoretical All Star.

Wait until you hear about Location+!

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I wonder what Varland’s stuff plus is as a reliever? 

Reliever:

Starter:

To keep this tied to SWR, it's interesting to see his reliever Stuff+ number beat Paddack and Varland. I wouldn't have predicted that.

[Linus]

Is there a location +?  That’s more important than stuff. 61 walks and 90 strikeouts doesn’t inspire confidence. Obviously he is worth giving more chances but I wouldn’t be counting on him. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Is there a location +?  That’s more important than stuff. 61 walks and 90 strikeouts doesn’t inspire confidence. Obviously he is worth giving more chances but I wouldn’t be counting on him. 

Yes, there is a Location+. And a pitching+.

[Cody Schoenmann]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Is there a location +?  That’s more important than stuff. 61 walks and 90 strikeouts doesn’t inspire confidence. Obviously he is worth giving more chances but I wouldn’t be counting on him. 

Yes, Woods Richardson's Location+ was 100.7 at Triple-A.

[Cody Schoenmann]

8 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

The A's have some bad boys coming up! I wonder who they will get traded to! 

Recent history tells us it will likely be the Braves lol

[Cody Schoenmann]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I've read that he doesn't use his legs much when he throws and that limits his velocity. He sounds like the type of pitcher the Twins have had some success with by incorporating their legs into their throwing motion and increasing velocity. This guy sounds like a classic minor leader that could benefit from going to Driveline or something similar to work on velocity. If he can even get the 93 – 95, that can make a huge difference. 

I agree that Woods Richardson would likely benefit from going to an offseason program like Driveline, It will be interesting to monitor Woods Richardson's offseason and see how much and what type of work he puts in. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

No upside???  He has great Stuff+!!   That must mean something.   I love magical advanced metrics that can turn a mediocre actual pitcher into a theoretical All Star.

The post you replied to is a perfect example of people giving up on a 23 year old with good stuff.... The data is actually really good about stuff+and predictable outcomes.