Gray wants to Stay?

[FilthyMogwai]

This is great news. I would like to see Sonny back, but definitely would like to see him more as the Twins' 3 or 4. Meaning, I am hoping that they can pick up another very good arm to form a 1-2 punch with Pablo.

[sun]

Nothing less than a qualifying offer will reward him for his fine year. After all he was able to beat the Yankees. The Twins should offer him $45 - $50 mil for 3 years or we'll take the draft pick. I love Sonny's pitching but he doesn't get run support & sometimes needs favorable calls to not get into jams.

I'm still tinkering with the idea of Duran becoming a starter. Then maybe we can go to the big dance!

[Linus]

Would this constitute shopping at Dior?  Or Costco?

[Battle ur tail off]

2 years with 3rd year team option is the most I would go. He won't take that, but I don't want 35 + year old pitchers around here anymore. I like Sonny and think having him here for 2 years would be great BTW, just don't think it will happen. If he balks at that kind of deal, then offer QO and get your draft pick.

Keep doing what you have been, lock up the young guys through primes, then develop or trade for the rest of your roster. Fill up on guys that throw hard. Keep away from dumpster dives(did a good job with that too this past offseason)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

46 minutes ago, Linus said:

Would this constitute shopping at Dior?  Or Costco?

I wouldn’t mind a bulk 5 pack of premium front of the rotation starters, but I’m not sure Costco has them in the TV section

[Mike Sixel]

I'm with most of you.....2 years with an option for 3.

Or, sign Nola, but he'll want 7 years or so.....do people have stomachs for that? I don't know.....

There are like 2-4 other good SPs I'd spend money on, and I definitely want one more GOOD SP, so, ya, good luck to all sides!

Big fan of Gray and the trade to get him. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think there's going to be many, if any, teams willing to offer him 4 years guaranteed. I think his most reasonable ask is to try to get a 3rd guaranteed year with the 4th year option. I think he can get 3 years, 60ish mil from someone. Maybe a 12 mil option year for a 4th year tacked on. I don't expect him back with MN next year because I don't expect them to guarantee a 3rd year. Just not their style.

The thing is, there doesn't have to be many teams offering 4 years guaranteed. Just one.

Out of 30 teams, I think there will be at least one. It won't (and I'm with others in saying it shouldn't) be the Twins. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The thing is, there doesn't have to be many teams offering 4 years guaranteed. Just one.

Out of 30 teams, I think there will be at least one. It won't (and I'm with others in saying it shouldn't) be the Twins. 

Oh, for sure. Always only takes 1. But teams can see that this was the first year in about a decade that he didn't hit the IL. He's never been a workhorse (throws too many pitches per AB), and he's not exactly young (in sports terms) anymore. It only takes 1, but he's going to have a hard time finding 1 with his health history. But it definitely only takes 1. Like Donaldson a few years ago. Only took the Twins getting desperate at the end. We'll see how it plays out. Good for him for making himself be in high demand, though.

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The thing is, there doesn't have to be many teams offering 4 years guaranteed. Just one.

Out of 30 teams, I think there will be at least one. It won't (and I'm with others in saying it shouldn't) be the Twins. 

Or a couple teams with higher dollars for 3 years.  Either one will do it and neither will be the Twins.

They will be actively engaged though.  As procedural matters the QO will be presented and declined with no hard feelings on either side.  At that point I would expect the Twins to make offers but not what the open market will be willing to give.  Just a rough comparison with Pablo's contract shows something about their range of comfort.  They would have to give something similar to Gray at 34.  Even the 3 year version isn't in their range.  They can get three Mahle's for that.

Also Sonny will be watching the Cy Young vote closely.  It'll help his negotiating ability but also a cool million for 2nd or 3rd, 750k for 4th or 5th.  500k seems locked in for 6-10.  Good luck to him.

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, FilthyMogwai said:

This is great news. I would like to see Sonny back, but definitely would like to see him more as the Twins' 3 or 4. Meaning, I am hoping that they can pick up another very good arm to form a 1-2 punch with Pablo.

I mean, I'd like that too, but Sonny finished in top 5 in MLB in pitcher WAR.  He'll finish in top 5 in the Cy Young vote too, I expect.  He finished 3rd in ERA.  Zach Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Verlander, etc aren't going to be available, so just who is this "better than Sonny Gray" pitcher that you hope to obtain?

Gray had a below par game vs Houston.  Who knows what would have happened if Kirrilof catches that grounder?  I'm not going to hold that start against him when I judge his entire body of work.

I'd make every effort to sign Gray, with the knowledge that it will almost certainly take 3 years, possibly 4.  Twins probably can't afford to get into a bidding war with the large market teams, but maybe they will pass because of his age (though I admit this seems unlikely).  Gray is fine as a #2 starter, especially because it is realistic to hope for improvement from Ryan and Ober as the #3 and #4 guys.

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, for sure. Always only takes 1. But teams can see that this was the first year in about a decade that he didn't hit the IL. He's never been a workhorse (throws too many pitches per AB)

MLB.com's player page for Gray shows no IL time from May 1, 2017 to September 13, 2020.  Recent history is more important, obviously, and he's not getting any younger, but invoking an entire decade seems to be overdoing it.  And a healthy 2023 with 32 starts seems like just about the best recommendation any pitcher can have, at any age.

Also, Gray's pitches per PA were the fewest among all qualifying Twins pitchers (a set of only five guys, to be sure) at 3.73, which is below the major league average of 3.90.  He tied for 14th best in the majors.  Similar numbers for 2022 and 2021 (Reds) as well.  Gray's about the last Twins starter to point a finger toward in this regard.

[dex8425]

15 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I mean, I'd like that too, but Sonny finished in top 5 in MLB in pitcher WAR.  He'll finish in top 5 in the Cy Young vote too, I expect.  He finished 3rd in ERA.  Zach Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Verlander, etc aren't going to be available, so just who is this "better than Sonny Gray" pitcher that you hope to obtain?

Gray had a below par game vs Houston.  Who knows what would have happened if Kirrilof catches that grounder?  I'm not going to hold that start against him when I judge his entire body of work.

I'd make every effort to sign Gray, with the knowledge that it will almost certainly take 3 years, possibly 4.  Twins probably can't afford to get into a bidding war with the large market teams, but maybe they will pass because of his age (though I admit this seems unlikely).  Gray is fine as a #2 starter, especially because it is realistic to hope for improvement from Ryan and Ober as the #3 and #4 guys.

Yeah, the only guys I'd consider better for 2024 than Sonny are Blake Snell, Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Kershaw and maybe Trevor Bauer, but the Twins realistically aren't going to sign any of those guys.  I like Gray better than Jordan Montgomery or Frankie Montas. Eduardo Rodriguez or Jack Flaherty would be cheaper options that could start a playoff game. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

MLB.com's player page for Gray shows no IL time from May 1, 2017 to September 13, 2020.  Recent history is more important, obviously, and he's not getting any younger, but invoking an entire decade seems to be overdoing it.  And a healthy 2023 with 32 starts seems like just about the best recommendation any pitcher can have.

Also, Gray's pitches per PA were the lowest among all qualifying Twins pitchers (a set of only five guys, to be sure) at 3.73, which is below the major league average of 3.90.  Similar numbers for 2022 and 2021 (Reds) as well.  Gray's about the last Twins starter to point a finger toward in this regard.

IL or not Sonny Gray has made 30 starts once since 2015. He's thrown 200 innings twice in his career ('14 and '15). He's hit 175 innings only 2 other times ('19 and '23). Nobody is looking at his 2023, at the age of 33 (will be 34 all of next year), and thinking he's a workhorse suddenly. 

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

IL or not Sonny Gray has made 30 starts once since 2015.

I'm not making the case that he's anybody's idea of a true workhorse, so that wouldn't have drawn a response from me.  (Although I look closer at counting-stats over a period that includes 2020, a shortened season, in which for better or worse he was on a 30-start pace.)

[sun]

I think that Gray will be happy to accept a QO. If he can replicate his performance next year then he'll have made a fine payday with the chance for more.

The Twins will be bargaining from a position of strength. For a team to lose at least their 3rd highest draft pick plus $500K - $1 mil in International bonus pool money is a powerful incentive for other teams to not sign him.  A luxery tax team would lose 2 draft picks, their 2nd & 5th highest.

Sonny would be paid $20 mil just for agreeing to  return to the Twins for 1 year & they won't be forced to offer any additional huge amount unless they really want to. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-23-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

IL or not Sonny Gray has made 30 starts once since 2015. He's thrown 200 innings twice in his career ('14 and '15). He's hit 175 innings only 2 other times ('19 and '23). Nobody is looking at his 2023, at the age of 33 (will be 34 all of next year), and thinking he's a workhorse suddenly. 

200 innings? Hardly no one does that now. Only 40 pitchers started 30 games this year (counting Gray). I think people need to adjust their thinking about SP at this point.....

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, sun said:

I think that Gray will happy to accept a QO. If he can replicate his performance next year then he'll have made a fine payday with the chance for more.

The Twins will be bargaining from a position of strength. For a team to lose at least their 3rd highest draft pick plus $500K - $1 mil in International bonus pool money is a powerful incentive for other teams to not sign him.  A luxery tax team would lose 2 draft picks, their 2nd & 5th highest.

Sonny would be paid $20 mil just for agreeing to  return to the Twins for 1 year & they won't be forced to offer any addironal huge amount unless they really want to. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-23-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions

 

 

He's not settling for a 1 year deal. No chance. Zero.

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

200 innings? Hardly no one does that now. Only 40 pitchers started 30 games this year (counting Gray). I think people need to adjust their thinking about SP at this point.....

Five guys reached that innings mark in 2023.  Twenty years ago (just to pick a number)?  44 guys.  Yep, times have changed.  Standards need to, too.

[IndianaTwin]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

IL or not Sonny Gray has made 30 starts once since 2015. He's thrown 200 innings twice in his career ('14 and '15). He's hit 175 innings only 2 other times ('19 and '23). Nobody is looking at his 2023, at the age of 33 (will be 34 all of next year), and thinking he's a workhorse suddenly. 

I don't like discussions about what is an "ace," so I don't want to start one on what is a "workhorse," but here's the leaders in innings pitched over the past five years. You have to pay for the totals beyond 25, so I don't know the numbers. Counting 2020 as the .37 season it was, he's averaged 28.4 starts over that time.  

 

[chpettit19]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

200 innings? Hardly no one does that now. Only 40 pitchers started 30 games this year (counting Gray). I think people need to adjust their thinking about SP at this point.....

How many pitchers were doing it in 2016? 17? 18? The point is that looking at 33 year old Sonny Gray's 2023 season and projecting that as the norm moving forward, instead of his 2016 through 2022 seasons would be a terrible way to project his likely future outcomes.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't like discussions about what is an "ace," so I don't want to start one on what is a "workhorse," but here's the leaders in innings pitched over the past five years. You have to pay for the totals beyond 25, so I don't know the numbers. Counting 2020 as the .37 season it was, he's averaged 28.4 starts over that time.  

 

I'm not a fan of "most counting stat over this specific chunk of time" stats. He ranks 24th in total innings pitched since 2019, great, how many pitchers were there that were full-time, veteran starters in 2019 that were still full-time starters in 2023? Using counting numbers in this fashion biases the data because it discounts guys who didn't pitch that whole stretch due to their age and career situation. 

He's averaged 154 innings per year since 2019 (I don't count 2020 stats cuz you can't just extrapolate them over another 102 games). There were 54 guys who threw 154 innings this year. 55 last year. 52 in 2021. That's quite a few guys doing what he does.

I like Sonny. I want him back on a 2 year deal. I'm just saying that teams aren't going to look at his 2023 season and project him to start 30+ games and 180 inning guy as he moves into his ages 34 and beyond seasons.

[sun]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not settling for a 1 year deal. No chance. Zero.

You may be right or you may be wrong. My point is that the Twins don't need to overpay him. For instance, 35 year old Kyle Gibson earned $10 mil, pitched 192 innings, made 33 starts, & went 15-9 with an ERA of 4.73. 

I doubt that Sonny will get offered $20 for multiple years.  A QO is not easy for other teams to match for each of multiple years. He has a track record that will be closely analyzed. We have no idea what he will settle for or how long he wants to pitch. The Twins are in control & wary about longer term contracts. They've been burned by a lot of pitchers contracts. Anything beyond a QO is a craps shoot.

Sonny kaputs at around 80-90 pitches, & sometimes gets taken out with less.

 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, sun said:

I think that Gray will be happy to accept a QO. If he can replicate his performance next year then he'll have made a fine payday with the chance for more.

The Twins will be bargaining from a position of strength. For a team to lose at least their 3rd highest draft pick plus $500K - $1 mil in International bonus pool money is a powerful incentive for other teams to not sign him.  A luxery tax team would lose 2 draft picks, their 2nd & 5th highest.

Sonny would be paid $20 mil just for agreeing to  return to the Twins for 1 year & they won't be forced to offer any additional huge amount unless they really want to. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-23-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions

 

 

I agree that Gray won't accept a QO.  He has a chance for a 3-5 year contract.  Jake Odorizzi accepted a QO from the Twins and got injured and ended up earning substantially less than he would have earned on FA contract.  I do believe that there is a chance he will sign with the Twins for the following reasons:

1. I don't think that he will go back to the NYY or any other high pressure environment, nor do I think these teams will offer him a high guaranteed contracts (incentives could bring the value of the contract up)
2. Target Field is fair to pitchers, I don't think he would want to be in a band box or Coors Field.
3. The Twins should be competitive for the foreseeable future.
4. At his age money isn't every thing.  His career earnings total over $60 million.  After you consider agent fees and taxes he will probably only receive about 50% of any difference in FA contracts.  

Based on the above I believe the Twins could miss being the high bidder, but still end up signing Gray.  If not, the Twins should receive a high draft pick.

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, sun said:

You may be right or you may be wrong. My point is that the Twins don't need to overpay him. For instance, 35 year old Kyle Gibson earned $10 mil, pitched 192 innings, made 33 starts, & went 15-9 with an ERA of 4.73. 

I doubt that Sonny will get offered $20 for multiple years.  A QO is not easy for other teams to match for each of multiple years. He has a track record that will be closely analyzed. We have no idea what he will settle for or how long he wants to pitch. The Twins are in control & wary about longer term contracts. They've been burned by a lot of pitchers contracts. Anything beyond a QO is a craps shoot.

Sonny kaputs at around 80-90 pitches, & sometimes gets taken out with less.

 

I'd be shocked if he didn't get 25MM per year for 2-3 years. He's 100x better than Gibson.

Is that last sentence supposed to be disparaging? Because if you are complaining about how he pitched this year, I have no words.

[SteveLV]

If it were my call the QO is a no-brainer.

I would offer 2 options:  3/$75M or 2/$60 with a mutual option for year 3.

However, I think the Cardinals are going to make him a rich young man this winter, and the Twins will get a nice draft choice.

[sun]

On 10/13/2023 at 5:02 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be shocked if he didn't get 25MM per year for 2-3 years. He's 100x better than Gibson.

Is that last sentence supposed to be disparaging? Because if you are complaining about how he pitched this year, I have no words.

Sonny may have had his worst start of the year against the Astros. To be worth $25 mil he needed to have his best start of the year & manhandle the Astros. But he only lasted 4 innings. Joe Ryan wasn't even given a chance to pitch as bad. Sonny's game against the Astros was the most important game of his career & he didn't pass the test. He had a great season but a pitcher needs to win the big playoff games to get rewarded with an elite conttract.

[Nine of twelve]

As is the case with all free agents, Gray has earned the privilege of choosing where he wants to play. I think it would be great if he chose to accept a reasonable contract to stay with the Twins for another couple years or so.