Week in Review: Wrapping Up and Moving On

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins closed out their season against a pair of lousy teams, winning four of six despite being mostly focused on setting themselves up for a looming ALWC matchup against Toronto.

Image courtesy of John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/25 through Sun, 10/1
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 87-75)
Run Differential Last Week: +17 (Overall: +119)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (9.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 157 | MIN 11, OAK 3: Wallner's Early Slam Sets Blowout Tone
Game 158 | MIN 6, OAK 4: Offense's Late Jolt Secures Series Win
Game 159 | OAK 2, MIN 1: Another Disappearing Act for Lineup
Game 160 | MIN 7, COL 6: Homers Fuel Comeback at Coors Field
Game 161 | MIN 14, COL 6: More Bombs Lead to Blowout Win
Game 162 | COL 3, MIN 2: Who Cares

NEWS & NOTES

Shortly following the return of Chris Paddack, the Twins activated Brock Stewart to join the bullpen as another potential postseason weapon. Dylan Floro was designated for assignment to make room. 

Ironically, at the same time as the front office's lone trade deadline acquisition was officially rendered a flop, their overall strategy of laying low is being redeemed by the late additions of several key internal arms, including Louie Varland, Paddack, and now Stewart. 

In two appearances after returning, Stewart threw 1 ⅔ innings and struck out three with no walks. He did give up four hits, but not much in the way of worrisome hard contact.

As the pitching staff reaches its (almost) full form in the nick of time, the position player corps is trying to do the same, albeit with a number of question marks in play. The critical trio of Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton remain in flux – none traveled on the final road trip to Colorado as they work to overcome health issues and participate effectively in the playoffs.

Based on how things have trended, I think it's fair to say Correa has a great chance to be in the lineup on Tuesday, Lewis has a pretty good chance, and Buxton ... is totally up in the air. Much will hinge on how these players look on Monday's workout day at Target Field.

Finally, in a scary moment, Jorge Polanco came out of Friday's game against the Rockies with ankle soreness, but he says he'll be good to go on Tuesday. Monday might also be an important day for him.

HIGHLIGHTS

Max Kepler is finishing the season strong as he looks to break free from the shadow of a 1-for-18 playoff history at the plate. He's about to get his chance and Kepler is coming in hot. He put together a four-hit game on Thursday, then on Friday he doubled against a lefty and later drove in the winning run on a sac fly. Kepler added a three-run homer in Saturday's game. 

The right fielder is playing the best ball of his career, with the possible exception of 2019, but in that case he was extremely hobbled going into the playoffs, and struggled mightily in September. Seeing Kepler finish on the opposite note here in 2023 is a promising sign.

Ryan Jeffers also continues to look excellent at the plate and is wrapping up his breakthrough campaign with a power surge. He homered twice in three starts last week after going deep twice in his previous four games, pushing his line for the season to .276/.369/.490. Even with his role as a part-time catcher, Jeffers has a solid argument as team MVP and he put a nice finishing touch on it.

Another player who showed out at the end of the season: Trevor Larnach. He won't be on the playoff roster but Larnach made a statement in his late-season stint with the Twins, after spending nearly the entire second half in Triple-A (where he posted an .888 OPS). 

Larnach came through with a go-ahead RBI double against Oakland on Wednesday, and drilled a homer to aid Minnesota's comeback win on Friday, both as a pinch-hitter. He started on Saturday in Colorado and launched a grand slam that broke the game open. Larnach's presence heading into 2024 gives the Twins some intriguing offseason options in terms of selling high on Kepler or even Matt Wallner.

One last player worth commending is Emilio Pagán, who closed out his resilient 2023 campaign on a high note, picking up the save on Friday night with a clean ninth and then following as the opener on Saturday with a scoreless first. Pagán's stellar September (11 IP, 13 K, 0.82 ERA) lowered his overall ERA on the season to 2.99, marking a stunning turnaround from last year's struggles. 

Despite his success this year, Pagán is not one of the team's top high-leverage options for the playoffs. But to make a deep run in October, strong bullpen depth is key. Having a guy like this available as your fourth or fifth option is the definition of strong bullpen depth.

LOWLIGHTS

Seemingly in line to start a potential Game 3 in the ALWC series, Joe Ryan did not put forth the most encouraging performance in his final regular-season tuneup. Granted, it was at Coors Field, but Ryan was knocked around on Friday night, allowing six earned runs on eight hits – including three home runs – over five innings against the Rockies.

The home runs are especially alarming. When Ryan was in his midseason slump, pitching through an undisclosed groin injury, homers were his primary weakness, and this is the worst we've seen them flare up outside of that stretch. Again: the altitudinous environment needs to be factored, but Ryan is going to be facing power-laden lineups in the postseason. He's got to dial this in.

The 27-year-old wrapped up his season by allowing 13 earned runs in 16 innings (7.31 ERA) in his final three starts. Naturally, he did so with a very impressive 21-to-4 K/BB ratio.

LOOKING AHEAD

Here come the Blue Jays! Target Field will host two or three playoff games this week, and it's going to be a lot of fun. Possibly heartbreaking. Either way I'm ready for the ride.

For those of you who've followed along for the ride all season – by checking out, commenting on, or sharing these weekly recaps – I appreciate you! 

TUESDAY, 10/3: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY,10/4: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 10/5 (if necessary): BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – TBD v. TBD

View full article

[Mark G]

Good wrap up.  And it ought to be an interesting 3 days ( I believe we will win the series 2-1).

But I do wonder if we are as good as we think we are.  After the All Star break we had a pretty soft schedule, including, what was it, 19 games against teams that lost over 100 games?  Are we as good as our 87 wins would suggest?  Or are we better, now that we have our pitchers back?  I, for one, will stay tuned to find out.

Now, I don't know if I will get in trouble for making this comment on this article, it is a little off topic, but I was more than a little disappointed in using Luplow in the 11th inning of the game yesterday.  Ends the season on a weird note, to me, just conceding the game and going home.  I know I am old school, but it just feels wrong.  Am I?

[JoshDungan1]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Good wrap up.  And it ought to be an interesting 3 days ( I believe we will win the series 2-1).

But I do wonder if we are as good as we think we are.  After the All Star break we had a pretty soft schedule, including, what was it, 19 games against teams that lost over 100 games?  Are we as good as our 87 wins would suggest?  Or are we better, now that we have our pitchers back?  I, for one, will stay tuned to find out.

Now, I don't know if I will get in trouble for making this comment on this article, it is a little off topic, but I was more than a little disappointed in using Luplow in the 11th inning of the game yesterday.  Ends the season on a weird note, to me, just conceding the game and going home.  I know I am old school, but it just feels wrong.  Am I?

I think that we were able to get our offense going at all is the important thing. A team that couldn't buy a clutch hit against literally anybody in the first half of the season found guys they could rely on to get those hits, and jettisoned players that weren't up to snuff.

As for the Luplow thing, I understand why they were doing it, they had a plan for who they wanted to pitch today and when they reached the end of that list, they went with whoever they thought would end the game soonest. I don't like that we just gave the game up, but we also had the opportunity to win with an actual pitcher on the mound and we couldn't get it done.

[William K Johnson]

Part of Polanco's ankle is issue is that he seems to twist his ankle on every swing.   Perhaps a more even approach at the plate is warranted.

[rv78]

For the sake of the fans I really hope Lewis is able to play at his full potential. Correa's defense would be good to have but offensively he hasn't made a difference to this team, not that a hot bat from him wouldn't help. As for Buxton I see him as probably more of a detriment than being able to help this team. His struggles this year offensively and inability to play defense, his most valuable attribute, make him a non-factor. His spot needs to be taken by someone who has been and is able to contribute at a complete and healthy level.

 

[wabene]

The only important thing yesterday was getting through the game without injuries to key guys and using any pitcher that you didn't want to get work. Bailey sure made a statement about his ability to face off against the well rested Astros should we get that far. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Twins made it through non-critical week of baseball very well and certainly set themselves up through rest and tryouts for the postseason.  Now, if we can just get all of those players to come through when it really matters we'll be OK.  Go Twins!

[mikelink45]

I take Larnach - not Buxton, I think Ober has passed Ryan in reliability, but it is too late to line him up for game three.  Paddock in - Keuchel out.  

And most important - we need Lewis!  He is more valuable to us this year than Correa or Buxton.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree, Lewis is our "X" factor.  Of all the players we are wondering about as the post season begins, he is the most vital.  I don't know what to think of Buxton.  The fact that there is considerable and legitimate debate over whether he should even be on the roster is telling.  If this FO doesn't have a plan for CF next season that doesn't include Buxton they should be held criminally liable.  He just cannot be counted on.  

I also agree that Joe Ryan pitched himself OUT of the rotation and into the bullpen and that Ober pitched himself INTO the rotation as a game #1 starter in the next round.  We better win this series in 2 games.  

Lastly, I'm happy for Larnach but HE's the guy getting traded this off season, not Kepler or Wallner.  Kepler has earned his option being picked up.  They can let him play out next season and then determine if it's better to go with a younger guy or offer an extension.  Track the development of Rodriguez and Jenkins.  Wallner isn't going anywhere.  With Larnach's pull heavy power swing, I'd monitor how Frankie Montas looks and put together a trade package that included Larnach to the Yankees.  Larnach as a corner OF could hit 25 HR's for the Yankees.  If Montas gets healthy, he could be the rotation replacement for Sonny Gray or Maeda.  It could be a trade that benefits both teams.  

[LastOnePicked]

Thanks for these weekly recaps, Nick. Well done as always. Even when I follow the team day-to-day, I still appreciate the weekly recaps as a way to look at trends and highlights.

And a nice tribute to Pagan in this one, too. We'll see how it goes, but I have a ton of admiration for a guy who struggled yet kept showing up and kept finding ways to have his potential match is performance. He and Kepler each silenced their critics in exactly the right way.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Mark G said:

Good wrap up.  And it ought to be an interesting 3 days ( I believe we will win the series 2-1).

But I do wonder if we are as good as we think we are.  After the All Star break we had a pretty soft schedule, including, what was it, 19 games against teams that lost over 100 games?  Are we as good as our 87 wins would suggest?  Or are we better, now that we have our pitchers back?  I, for one, will stay tuned to find out.

Now, I don't know if I will get in trouble for making this comment on this article, it is a little off topic, but I was more than a little disappointed in using Luplow in the 11th inning of the game yesterday.  Ends the season on a weird note, to me, just conceding the game and going home.  I know I am old school, but it just feels wrong.  Am I?

Can’t afford to use up Pen arms Sunday after a Bullpen game on Saturday. Only one off day prior to Toronto Series & don’t want guys to be off limits for Tuesday’s first game.

Entirety of baseball played each other this year. We did play our Division 13 games each. Every other team played their Division foes 13 games each.

Thinking whether we played Oakland & Colorado and others in 2nd half has more weight than if we played them in a different portion of their season seems silly to me.

So we’re 4 better before the break & 4 worse after the break…….still 87 wins.

Stay tuned is right……hoping for a Saturday game!

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Part of Polanco's ankle is issue is that he seems to twist his ankle on every swing.   Perhaps a more even approach at the plate is warranted.

Agree. Over the last couple of weeks he has taken some all or nothing type swings and has finished very off balanced and over twisting his ankles and entire body. The announcers have commented about it also.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Mark G said:

Good wrap up.  And it ought to be an interesting 3 days ( I believe we will win the series 2-1).

But I do wonder if we are as good as we think we are.  After the All Star break we had a pretty soft schedule, including, what was it, 19 games against teams that lost over 100 games?  Are we as good as our 87 wins would suggest?  Or are we better, now that we have our pitchers back?  I, for one, will stay tuned to find out.

Now, I don't know if I will get in trouble for making this comment on this article, it is a little off topic, but I was more than a little disappointed in using Luplow in the 11th inning of the game yesterday.  Ends the season on a weird note, to me, just conceding the game and going home.  I know I am old school, but it just feels wrong.  Am I?

Can’t afford to use up Pen arms Sunday after a Bullpen game on Saturday. Only one off day prior to Toronto Series & don’t want guys to be off limits for Tuesday’s first game.

Entirety of baseball played each other this year. We did play our Division 13 games each. Every other team played their Division foes 13 games each.

Thinking whether we played Oakland & Colorado and others in 2nd half has more weight than if we played them in a different portion of their season seems silly to me.

So we’re 4 better before the break & 4 worse after the break…….still 87 wins.

Stay tuned is right……hoping for a Saturday game!

……………………….

ROSTER I see w/o Lewis: (he sounds doubtful)

Julien - 2B, Polanco 3B, Kirilloff - 1B, Kepler - RF, Wallner - LF, Correa - SS, Larnach - DH, Jeffers - C, Castro - CF

Maybe DH Solano and keep Larnach as a LH bat off the bench?

Vazquez - Solano - Taylor - Farmer - Buxton or Stevenson

12 pitchers (3 starters) - (9 relievers)

[Nine of twelve]

I want to mention this: 11-4 (.733) in our last 15 regular season games. Level of competition notwithstanding, this team seems very capable of taking care of business.

[big dog]

On an unrelated note- how did we get a position player to pitch in a non-blowout game? Is that only allowed at the end of the season?

[Mark G]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t afford to use up Pen arms Sunday after a Bullpen game on Saturday. Only one off day prior to Toronto Series & don’t want guys to be off limits for Tuesday’s first game.

Entirety of baseball played each other this year. We did play our Division 13 games each. Every other team played their Division foes 13 games each.

Thinking whether we played Oakland & Colorado and others in 2nd half has more weight than if we played them in a different portion of their season seems silly to me.

So we’re 4 better before the break & 4 worse after the break…….still 87 wins.

Stay tuned is right……hoping for a Saturday game!

All very true to a large degree.  Where you get your 87 wins over the course of a long season doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but we spent the last few weeks beating up on bad teams' bad bullpens; I simply wonder how good we really are going into the arena of equal or better teams in the playoffs.  Our overall record is almost identical to Toronto's, but we all know who we played 52 games against and who they played 52 games against within each division.  As I said above, I think we will win the series 2-1, but I can't help but continue to wonder how good are we, really?  Let the test begin.  

[Mark G]

30 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I want to mention this: 11-4 (.733) in our last 15 regular season games. Level of competition notwithstanding, this team seems very capable of taking care of business.

I like the sentiment, but the level of competition means everything.  12 of the 15 games were against teams that lost over 100 games; how does that play in October, when we play teams equal or better than us?  I like our chances because of the format of the first series and only needing our best 8 or 9 pitchers or so, but get into a best of seven later on against top competition and I wonder how good we really are.  We won't be seeing many RP's with an ERA of 4 or higher to pile on late in games.  Again, I think we have a decent chance this year; I am just a little cautious in thinking we are better than maybe we really are.  Bring it on.  

[Mark G]

29 minutes ago, big dog said:

On an unrelated note- how did we get a position player to pitch in a non-blowout game? Is that only allowed at the end of the season?

Normally you have to be a certain number of runs ahead or behind to use position players, but the rule allows it in extra innings regardless of score.  Personally, I don't see a whole lot of difference between conceding the game the way we did yesterday and saying no mas and just leaving the field.  Knowingly losing a game, regardless of when or why, leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but apparently that is just me.  

[Mark G]

29 minutes ago, big dog said:

On an unrelated note- how did we get a position player to pitch in a non-blowout game? Is that only allowed at the end of the season?

Normally you have to be a certain number of runs ahead or behind to use position players, but the rule allows it in extra innings regardless of score.  Personally, I don't see a whole lot of difference between conceding the game the way we did yesterday and saying no mas and just leaving the field.  Knowingly losing a game, regardless of when or why, leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but apparently that is just me.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

On an unrelated note- how did we get a position player to pitch in a non-blowout game? Is that only allowed at the end of the season?

I think a big factor in deciding to use Luplow to pitch in a tie game in the last game of the season that meant nothing was, “whaddya gonna do about it?”

[wabene]

The Twins are a better team right now than they were in the first half and it's born out by the numbers. @Mark G makes some good points of caution. In our favor we have played competitive baseball against almost all the good teams. The Jays split with us and if we advance we won the season series against the Astros. If the large influx of big stuff relievers works out and the offense continues it's second half run, this could be fun. 

[big dog]

9 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think a big factor in deciding to use Luplow to pitch in a tie game in the last game of the season that meant nothing was, “whaddya gonna do about it?”

I didn't realize it was allowed in an extra-inning game. I think it was a merciful end to a game that all the players probably wanted to be over anyway. I was watching with my mother and I predicted that some pitcher would be asked to throw a meatball in the bottom of the tenth. The shadows were bad no one could probably have hit it anyway. This was a reasonable solution.

[big dog]

9 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think a big factor in deciding to use Luplow to pitch in a tie game in the last game of the season that meant nothing was, “whaddya gonna do about it?”

I didn't realize it was allowed in an extra-inning game. I think it was a merciful end to a game that all the players probably wanted to be over anyway. I was watching with my mother and I predicted that some pitcher would be asked to throw a meatball in the bottom of the tenth. The shadows were bad no one could probably have hit it anyway. This was a reasonable solution.

[wabene]

Speaking of shadows, here's hoping the Twins can see right through them

[wabene]

Speaking of shadows, here's hoping the Twins can see right through them

[Mark G]

4 hours ago, big dog said:

I didn't realize it was allowed in an extra-inning game. I think it was a merciful end to a game that all the players probably wanted to be over anyway. I was watching with my mother and I predicted that some pitcher would be asked to throw a meatball in the bottom of the tenth. The shadows were bad no one could probably have hit it anyway. This was a reasonable solution.

Knowing I am a majority of one in this area, allow me to ask one more question:  with all the money bet on pro sports today, is knowingly conceding a game ethical on any level?  Regardless of standings, etc.  Did any money change hands Sunday because of that loss?  Or will we ever know since we could have lost the old fashioned way?  

Personally, I believe in competing to the best of your ability until the final gun goes off (so to speak) so no one can ever question the integrity of the game itself, or the team/players/coach/manager competing.  Extra innings come with the territory.  Never give up an at bat, and never give up a hitter if you are a pitcher; the integrity of the game depends on competing every pitch/batter/inning, etc.  I am sad we didn't do that, that's all, strategy or not.  There wasn't one pitcher to put in that would not be in our plans for game 1 or 2?  I will bet there was.  For an old school guy it was not a good way to end a season.  Sorry, folks, for the rant.  Let's play ball!

[big dog]

I get that, but

a) teams better not care about the outcomes with respect to bettors; for example, Mahomes slid to end the game on Monday night instead of scoring. Was he wrong?

b) it's a long season, and the Twins were playing to the end of it. They just aren't at the end of it yet. The Rockies were, let them play hard.

Was Toronto supposed to use their top pitcher on Sunday because it was his turn?

We're in the playoffs, gotta play the long game, IMO.