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  • Twins 7, Rockies 6: Bats Rally Late in 86th Win of the Year


    Matt Braun

    Ryan Jeffers' miracle homers remain blessed.

    Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    Joe Ryan: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
    Home Runs: Michael A. Taylor (21), Trevor Larnach (7), Ryan Jeffers (14)
    Top 3 WPA: 
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

    (Fangraphs is not working for some reason; we will have WPA info up as soon as it works again)

    For the first time since 2014, the Twins headed to Colorado to face off against the Rockies. The only player from Minnesota’s lineup that day still in MLB is Eduardo Escobar. Center fielder Sam Fuld is now the GM of the Phillies. Justin Morneau played 1st base for Colorado. Minnesota’s 3rd baseman—Trevor Plouffe—was at today’s game to support the broadcast. It had been a while. 

    Given that the Twins were set to play in Coors, there was likely a skirmish amongst pitchers, with many hurlers protesting and petitioning Rocco Baldelli to avoid facing the thin air and hostile conditions. Evidently, Joe Ryan provided the least persuasive argument; he started the game on Friday.

    And he probably wishes he didn’t. His offerings of high fastballs and flyballs is the precise combination that inflates ERAs and bruises egos. He elicited 14 swings-and-misses, but Colorado clobbered three homers off him, leaving him holding six earned runs over five innings, otherwise known as a “Colorado quality start” (this is not true.) He finishes the season with 197 strikeouts, just one groin injury away from cracking the elusive 200 mark.

    Minnesota’s offense found Coors inviting—duh—at the start. Kyle Farmer flopped an RBI single to right and later grounded into a double play to invite another run home, but the big score came when Michael A. Taylor cracked a two-run shot to left. It was the longest homer a Twin had hit all year. It happened nine batters into their Coors adventure.

    Lest anyone would take that record sitting down, both Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers offered legitimate claims to overtaking Taylor’s 468 feet of mashing. Their efforts tied the game.

    The Rockies—knowing that the Twins are undefeated when Jeffers homers—shook in their cleats, retreating to the safety of their bunkers, hiding in fear of the terror caused by the 26-year-old North Carolinian and the good fortune hidden in his bat. 

    Well, that didn’t happen, but they had good reason to believe in Jeffers’ luck. With a runner on 1st in the 9th, Farmer grounded a single up the middle that struck former Twin Tyler Kinley’s leg, shooting the ball to a non-existent second baseman when an unimpeded ball certainly would have turned two. It didn’t. Instead, Max Kepler drove a fly ball deep to center to score Andrew Stevenson, successfully concluding Minnesota’s rally. 

    Also, this didn’t have a place in my narrative, but Willi Castro made a hell of a play in the 7th—and I thought it deserved a mention.

    Emilio Pagán was the pitcher Rocco Baldelli's magic 8-ball spit out, so he received the call in the 9th. It worked. He allowed a single, but only threw nine pitches to earn his first save of the season.

     

    Notes:

    Michael A. Taylor extended his career-high in homers with bomb number 21; his previous record was 19 in 2017.

    Kody Funderburk won the second game of his MLB career on Friday.

    If he struck out three more batters, Joe Ryan would have made the 2023 Twins the first Minnesota squad since 1967 to have multiple 200 K pitchers. That team had three of them: Dean Chance, Jim Kaat, and Dave Boswell. 

    Emilio Pagán is the 7th Twins pitcher to earn a save in 2023. 

    Post-Game Interview:

     

     

    What’s Next?

    The Twins and Rockies will play the second game of their series on Saturday. It will be a legendary matchup, with the young but talented TBD facing off against the grizzled but tenacious TBD, looking for the 157th win of his career. First pitch is at 7:10. 

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
    Screenshot2023-09-29211643.png.d713057ee96269ecee03edfa2d39fb89.png

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    And Seattle stayed alive in the AL West race with a win over Texas, leaving us with 64 permutations: 

    image.png.d7a6e631539bc5b7f7e80e1c6aee254e.png

    The biggest winner for the day was Houston, which went from a 73 percent likelihood of making the playoffs to 81 percent. With its win, Toronto went from 92 to 95 percent. Despite its win, Seattle became less likely to qualify, since Houston's and Toronto's wins hurt them more than their own win helped them. And Texas went from a near-certainty at 98 percent to a still very-likely 91 percent. 

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    As for the Twins opponent, Houston went from a 40 percent chance of being the sixth seed to a 45 percent chance over the course of the day. Toronto fell from 29 percent to 25. Seattle fell from 27 to 19 percent, and Texas increased from 4 to 11.

    Toronto clinches a playoff spot with a win or a Seattle loss. Texas and Houston also clinch with a win. 

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    22 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

    Seattle still controls their own destiny, right? If they sweep the Rangers, they'll probably be the 6th seed- I am still holding out hope for the Astros to be sitting on the couch during October.

    No. If Seattle sweeps the Rangers, they would each have 89 wins. However, both Toronto and Houston have the ability to reach 90 wins or more. If that happens, Houston would win the West (2 seed), Toronto would have the second Wild Card (5 seed), and Texas would have the tie breaker over Seattle for the third Wild Card (6 seed).

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    2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    No. If Seattle sweeps the Rangers, they would each have 89 wins. However, both Toronto and Houston have the ability to reach 90 wins or more. If that happens, Texas would have the tie breaker for the sixth seed. 

    How do the Mariners have permutations that would make them the 2nd seed, then? Would they come out on top of a 3-way tie between them, Texas, and Houston?

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    7 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

    How do the Mariners have permutations that would make them the 2nd seed, then? Would they come out on top of a 3-way tie between them, Texas, and Houston?

    Correct. They lose two-way ties to both Houston and Texas, but win a three-team tie. 

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    Kepler with the "Game-Winning-RBI", Pagan with the save.    Okay, this time technically in a meaningless game, but this is still a reminder that the oft-maligned duo has contributed significantly to this team's successful push to the playoffs once they each shook off horrible starts.

    Keuchel has been an interesting story to watch, but it sure looks like it would be a big mistake to include him on the playoff roster at the expense of Funderburk.  For my money, the rookie has made his "Mark" and deserves to given the opportunity to have an impact.  Nice that they stretched him out an extra inning this time.

    I can understand why Buxton wants to push to return.  This is, after all, contractually his team along with Correa.

    Guess at this point I would take him over Luplow, but not really anybody else.  His struggle has been painful to watch and the team has thrived since his placement to the IL.

    I still think Ryan is our third-best option as a starter despite this showing.  But, if he falters in his next start, how great is it to have Maeda on hand to pick up the pieces?

     

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    7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    As for the Twins opponent, Houston went from a 40 percent chance of being the sixth seed to a 45 percent chance over the course of the day. Toronto fell from 29 percent to 25. Seattle fell from 27 to 19 percent, and Texas increased from 4 to 11.

    Toronto clinches a playoff spot with a win or a Seattle loss. Texas and Houston also clinch with a win. 

    I'm just happy they are all slugging it out while our 1 & 2 starters are relaxing and enjoying our fine Minnesota fall weather 😁

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    14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    Watching the ball movement in Colorado I cannot imagine them ever winning and being a good playoff team.  Imagine Atlanta playing in that stadium.

    Little known fact. Atlanta has the third highest elevation of any mlb city. 

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    38 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

    I'm just happy they are all slugging it out while our 1 & 2 starters are relaxing and enjoying our fine Minnesota fall weather 😁

    Yep. Since he is going today, the Astros can’t use Verlander until Game 3, unless he goes on short rest. Same with Seattle and Castillo. 

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    37 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

    "That stadium?"  that's what they're trying to sell us.  I'm not buying it.  If I were Rocco, I'd be seriously considering starting Maeda or Ober in the 3rd game. 

    Colorado definitely plays against Ryan's style and way of pitching. It's just reality. Did he have a great game? No, but it's also the first time he's pitched there and if you ask literally anyone in MLB they'll tell you it's a different deal. Ryan's biggest issue is always the long ball and playing in Colorado magnifies it.

    Good work by the bullpen to clean it up and finish it off. 

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    23 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    I agree, but 1050 feet versus 5280 is a pretty dramatic difference and the Atlanta humidity would also diminish the contrast.  

    Agreed. I just think it’s unexpected. Phoenix is number two. 

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    This off season Ryan needs to work on pitching all over the zone. Everyone in baseball knows he pitches up in the zone. The long ball is and has been a problem that has gotten out of control. I would guess that when Ryan is a free agent he will not sign with the Rockies. The sore ankle that Polanco has could be a problem for the 1st round. It is only a 3 game series and Polanco has been a clutch hitter in these situations. 

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    Speaking of the Braves, Elevation, and Home Runs....Atlanta's team home run total is now 304 - 3 behind the Twins record 307 (2019) with two games remaining. I guess I find all the stadium elevation conversation somewhat interesting. More appropriate to teams in the playoff hunt would be heat index / AC and their toll on position players, but more so pitching staffs. How would Arizona, Texas, Houston, Tampa be doing without climate control?? How many consecutive days above 100 degrees would the D-Backs, Rangers, and Astros have faced this year?? The Braves, on the other hand, have thrived despite the "Hot-Lanta" reputation. The Twins Series in Milwaukee and Chicago were brutal enough....Could not imagine the majority of the Summer Ball under such conditions. Whew!! Win Twins. 

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    1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

    I think Jeffers has done more than enough to play the bulk of the postseason games. While Vázquez has flirted with a .600 OPS, Jeffers has kept his above .800, quite a difference. As far as calling the game, handling pitchers and defending, I don't see either guy as a clear-cut superior player. 

    Vasquez's post-season experience more than compensates for the difference in offensive production.

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    1 hour ago, NotAboutWinning said:

    Vasquez's post-season experience more than compensates for the difference in offensive production.

    They’ll stick to every other day. Vazquez to catch Sunday & Jeffers for game 1!

    Vazquez D keeps him in the line-up - will continue to do so - allowing Jeffers to stay fresh!

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    Coors Field should have as little effect on Ryan's pitch mix as just about any MLB pitcher.

    The thinner air primarily affects breaking balls. Ryan throws fewer breaking balls than most.

    Coors Field is a tough place to pitch, but wasn't the primary reason for his struggles. He's been a below average MLB starter the entire second half. 

    No way he should get game 3 ahead of Maeda. Hope it doesn't come to that.

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    14 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Correct. They lose two-way ties to both Houston and Texas, but win a three-team tie. 

    Partially correct, partially incorrect. Texas beats Seattle in a 2-way tiebreaker. Seattle beats Houston in a 2-way tiebreaker. Houston beats Texas in a 2-way tiebreaker. Seattle wins a 3-way tiebreaker.

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    24 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    Coors Field should have as little effect on Ryan's pitch mix as just about any MLB pitcher.

    The thinner air primarily affects breaking balls. Ryan throws fewer breaking balls than most.

    Coors Field is a tough place to pitch, but wasn't the primary reason for his struggles. He's been a below average MLB starter the entire second half. 

    No way he should get game 3 ahead of Maeda. Hope it doesn't come to that.

    Thin air affects batted balls too, you know. A fly ball to center that is caught at Target Field probably clears the wall in Denver. I think I've read that Ryan gets more fly ball outs than the average pitcher, and if that's the case it would be expected that Coors Field would be unkind to him.

    If I consider only starting pitching, I lean the same way as you regarding game 3. But one needs to consider the pitching staff as a whole. It's not difficult to envision a scenario in which Maeda enables us to win game 1 and/or game 2 by being available in the bullpen.

     

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    I think Maeda has been the more effective pitcher lately (between Ryan and Maeda), but he has some experience in the bullpen and probably would be more valuable than Ryan in that role. The decision apparently has been made and the Twins have more information than the fans. 

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