What to Make of the Twins Arraez-for-Lopez Trade Now

[weitz41]

Great article. Win/Win trade and would do it again, especially with hindsight included. Not to mention there's a couple of guys in the minors that may tip the scales down the road. Today, both teams and fans should be happy with this trade.

On a side note. It kind of reminds me of the "what to do with Polanco" article last week. I don't remember if there were some similar articles about Arraez last fall/winter. 

[terrydactyls]

Hearing good things about a trade that is mutually beneficial is refreshing.  So often you hear people complain that a trade wasn't more beneficial to the home team.  Being in Maine, I only get news about the Red Sox and currently the discussion is all about front office changes.  A Boston reporter who covers the Red Sox said yesterday that the biggest cause of the decline of the Sox (and a major reason for the from office shakeup) is that the front office would only make trades that they perceived to be in favor of the Sox at a 70%/30% rate.  According to the reporter, Boston didn't finish several major trades last off-season because of this.  To me, that gives the Twins' front office a lot of positive points for the Arraez/Lopez trade.

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Hearing good things about a trade that is mutually beneficial is refreshing.  So often you hear people complain that a trade wasn't more beneficial to the home team.  Being in Maine, I only get news about the Red Sox and currently the discussion is all about front office changes.  A Boston reporter who covers the Red Sox said yesterday that the biggest cause of the decline of the Sox (and a major reason for the from office shakeup) is that the front office would only make trades that they perceived to be in favor of the Sox at a 70%/30% rate.  According to the reporter, Boston didn't finish several major trades last off-season because of this.  To me, that gives the Twins' front office a lot of positive points for the Arraez/Lopez trade.

It's a good point. If the only way you'll deal with a team is if you're screwing them, then why would anyone deal with you? there are going to be cases where one team values a player differently than another team, but for the most part there's going to be fairly close valuations.

[DocBauer]

I guess I'm going to repeat a lot of good stuff here, but so be it.

Like most, I absolutely love watching Arraez and loved his attitude/enthusiasm. I hated losing him and was bummed out when he was moved. I also was worried about the offense, even with Arraez, as we had guys coming back from injury, and young guys not yet proven...or both...to really make the offense be what it could potentially be. Honestly, not having for the Arraez for the first half, looking back, wasn't the problem with out inconsistent and often poor offense. There were far too many K's and feeble AB to say he was any sole cost..

But it was the number of those players that allowed the Twins to make this move. Lee, Lewis, Polanco, Martin, Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda were all 2B/1B/DH options here, coming back, or coming soon. And that's before the whole Buxton to DH situation. Now, not everyone was going to be ready this year, or come back strong from injury, or even make it all. But when you have that many guys to work with, you have depth numbers.

What's interesting is how, as of today, Friday, Arraez and Julien...who essentially replaced him...BOTH have an .842 OPS and an OPS+ of 130. Now, Arraez has been with the Marlins all season and has about 250 more AB's, but the point is while they are different players, they are essentially playing the exact same positions, hitting generally the same exact same spot in the lineup, and producing almost identically, though in different ways.

So while I hated to lose Arraez for many reasons, I also would still make that trade. I also agree it's turned out to be a Win-Win for both sides. Now, with a couple prospects that MIGHT turn out, and the inherent value often placed on a top of the rotation starter, I might have to give the Twins a slight nod.

NOTE: The perspective from the other side was absolutely a wonderful addition to the article. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Last year Miami's offense was third from the bottom in the majors. This year they are fourth from the bottom.

Last year the Twins' runs-against per game was around the middle of the pack. This year they rank fourth best.

A table-setter for a solid starting pitcher, assuming the talent evaluation and medicals all check out, is a trade I make every time.  Pitchers are inherently injury-prone but we know from experience that position-players miss time and see declining performance due to physical ailments too.  I liked the trade even when Arraez was hitting .400 earlier this season, and I like it now.  Setting the table wasn't any kind of panacea for Miami.

Gray blowing by his innings total from last year, a healthy/effective Ober, and the trickle down effect (for which Lopez also receives credit) from that reduced workload in the pen has likely played a massive role as well. 

[Dave Borton]

While I miss Arraez, both sides won.

[Linus]

Loved the trade at the time and would do it again in a heartbeat. That we got two prospects thrown in really helps. I enjoyed watching Arreaz sprinkling hits all over the field. But that’s it - can’t hit for power can’t run and below average in the field. For similar reasons I would trade high on Julien. 

[Einheri]

The trade has been good for both teams and both teams would likely do it again.

Eventually, as to who wins the trade, may get down to José Salas and Byron Chourio.
Salas:  batting .188 for the Kernels, playing SS, I think.  Age: 20.
Chourio: 18 years old, assigned to Florida Complex League.

[Schmoeman5]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

No one in Minnesota liked losing Arraez and his bat was sorely missed the beginning of this season, but the team had a glut of players to plug into his position and had a great need for top of the rotation starters.  The Twins needed a Pablo type pitcher even more than keeping around one of the best hitters in the game which sounds crazy as I write this, but given Julien's OPS is currently .842 and Arraez is at .842 it sounds less crazy.  They get there in different ways but the production is close enough to cover for the lose of Arraez at least in IMO.  Don't like OPS then Julien's WRc+ is 135 and Arreaz 128.  Like War better Julien is at 2.3 and Arraez is at 3.1.  Pretty much anyway you slice it they are close enough and we didn't have anyone close to the level that Lopez is at.

Did I want the Twins to trade Arraez, No.  Do I think they made the right move Yes I do.

I like the trade. And I'm not disputing the stats of Julien vs Arraez. I just want to point out that the numbers accrued are based on less than 300 AB from Julien vs 550 from Arraez. So it's not a totally accurate comparison. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I like the trade. And I'm not disputing the stats of Julien vs Arraez. I just want to point out that the numbers accrued are based on less than 300 AB from Julien vs 550 from Arraez. So it's not a totally accurate comparison. 

Yep their WAR number shows that difference as well but even when Julien wasn't playing there Solano or Polanco were and they are not too far off either.  Julien could tank the rest of the year and the numbers could look very different.  My main point was the Twins had an easier path to getting players close to Arraez's production but no real way to get players close to Pablo's level of production other than trade which is what they did.

[Melissa]

Getting in late to this conversation! Like all of us, watching Luis perform at the plate was such fun. But - like many of us - I liked the trade from the start.

This past Sunday the 10th I was at Target Field to witness Pablo López pitch eight shutout innings with fourteen strikeouts. It was one of the most - perhaps the very most - dominant pitching performance I’ve witnessed in person in my 70 years.

True, the Twins bats were silent and we lost the game 2-0. But watching Pablo was just wonderful. Luis is fun, to be sure, but give me this front line pitching any day.

[SotaSports in NM]

I'd do the trade again every time.

I love Arraez, and did so at the time of the trade, but I looked forward to trading him. With his lack of slugging and poor defense (all due respect to Ely, but in several games I've seen him play for the Marlins he has NOT been average in the field), I remember most often viewing him as replaceable. I feel like an idiot for calling a batting champ replaceable, but that's how I projected him.

He is a joy to watch (though only when in the batter's box and in interviews), but his biggest value was trade bait. He did a great job for us in many regards. I hope he continues to kick ass and gets a great contract when the time comes. I just appreciate that it won't be from us (or will it?? 😁)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great idea for an article.  Ted, did you do a similar written evaluation of the trade from the Twins point of view for the Marlins writer to publish for Marlins fans? If so, I would be interested in reading it. Win win for both teams, both of which filled  major needs. Win win for the fans, even though fan-favorites were traded away, because both players have also become fan favorites on their new teams, due to both players having outstanding seasons and both players being good, decent, likable men. 

[NotAboutWinning]

How often does a trade happen like this anymore? Both players having an immediate and significant impact to their new teams!

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, Linus said:

Loved the trade at the time and would do it again in a heartbeat. That we got two prospects thrown in really helps. I enjoyed watching Arreaz sprinkling hits all over the field. But that’s it - can’t hit for power can’t run and below average in the field. For similar reasons I would trade high on Julien. 

Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately).

Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties.

I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately).

Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties.

I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.

Yea I wasn’t implying they are similar ball players rather I would trade Julien for similar reasons. Both players have a thing or things they do extremely well but also have serious weaknesses. I feel like Arreazs trade value was higher than his real value. I think the case might be the same for Julien. Of course I have no idea what other GMs would be willing to give up for Julien so we will never know. 

[TopGunn#22]

Trades where both teams get what they hoped/expected out of it are always good.  I was a fan of this trade from the outset and despite the fact that LA may become one of the few players to win a batting title in both leagues I still do.  We acquired a pitcher that will be our #1 for several years and we dealt from a position of strength:  We had Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B and we had Julien knocking on the door.  Add in that Royce Lewis also has the ability to play 2B (and Brooks Lee is on the way) and the trade was a no brainer for the Twins, especially when the 2 minor league talents were included.  

I thoroughly enjoyed watching LA play for the Twins.  But when DMan lists the offensive impact Julien has already had versus Arraez this season the trade isn't just a homerun for the Twins, it's a grand slam!  If Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda exit the Twins starting rotation this winter, we will need to come up with another trade like this to add talent and depth to our starting staff.   

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/15/2023 at 10:40 AM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Did I like trading Arraez? No. Do I like having Lopez? Yes. What I like just as much was the vacancy trading Arraez created as that gave Julian a shot at the Bigs. Otherwise the FO would probably still have him wallowing in the minors. Now if the FO can wangle a way to trade an unproductive Correa we can clear up the current infield logjam and give a couple other promising youngsters a chance to prove themselves at the major league level... and improve the lineup's batting average. Not to mention freeing up a lot of salary money for signing pitching talent.

Correa being moved, never happening. Why would anyone trade for CC after this year’s lack of production & health issues. Maybe, if he has a great year in ‘25 or ‘26 we could then trade him but why would we if he’s playing well?

[PatPfund]

Great article with the outside perspective, and a good trade for both teams. I miss Luis, but the team dealt from surplus, and picked up an absolute rotation anchor (then extended him) while finding an excellent leadoff hitter in the system.

[Twins33]

It was a win/win then and it’s a win/win now

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think most of us will admit that the trade has been a win-win for both teams. I don’t think people have really read what Ely Sussman has said to Ted.

Miami has gone from a 69-93 team, to a winning team battling for the postseason—and minus the starting pitcher they gave up. That is the leadership and spark that Arraez has brought to the Marlins, an importance as hard to place a value on as Lopez’s value to the Twins. And he did it while playing second base. Comments like someone on the WCCO pregame broadcast recently made, that Arraez was a player without a position, are really lacking in integrity, in my opinion. We have commenters on this forum now who believe Lewis and Lee are future players without a position, who might be utilized in whatever position is needed. This is going too far. But anyway..

In the long run, the Twins will be better off to draft and develop their own pitching, so that they have to trade away a future Arraez. They will have to do better than one Bailey Ober every several years, no offense to Ober. 

[PopRiveter]

On 9/15/2023 at 12:27 PM, jmlease1 said:

I'm sorry, but do you actually believe this? That the Twins front office didn't want Arraez's influence over other hitters? Or that the players have simply all taken it upon themselves to now go their own way and ignore input from the coaching staff, scouts, etc? because that's just silliness.

The current FO is the same one that promoted him from A+ to AA, then to AAA, then to MLB. They moved him from AA to MLB in the same year, and then kept rolling with him. the idea that they traded him to keep his voice out of the room is ludicrous.

They dealt Arraez not because they didn't like him, but because he had a lot of value at a position they had a lot of depth at. In order to get what they really needed (and boy did we still need pitching) we had to give up someone that was established and had real value. That's Arraez. the other option was Polanco, but Polanco's value was likely lower at the time because of the injury he'd had last season, the time he had missed, the contract he had, and being older.

It was a good trade for the Twins, even if it meant giving up a player that everyone loved. That includes the front office: they loved him too. But Pablo Lopez has been very good for us and is lined up to lead the rotation for the next several year, which is something we didn't have: an established, all-star quality starter in his prime to lead the rotation.

I am 100% convinced it was a core strategy, mandated from above that this offense and all the hitters in it would swing for the fences. I think one would have to ignore all ration and evidence to draw a different conclusion after every single hitter in the lineup started the year with the statistical divergence we saw in the first half. Even established veterans diverged dramatically from their career norms. Literally, every single hitter was striking out more and making contact less often. That is approach, not coincidence.

Pair that with the player quotes (especially from Royce Lewis) around the time of the players-only meeting and the offensive turnaround. Shortly after midseason both Falvey and Levine themselves made comments on Inside Twins interviews where they acknowledged they had to adjust hitting teamwide strategy to emphasize getting on base. They admitted as much.

The plan entering 2023 with was totally contrary to Arraez's skillset. It is no leap to conclude they didn't want him or any high-contact, low-power hitter succeeding in this lineup. He was a tremendous asset that they didn't want, because he didn't fit their plan for the 2023 lineup.

But their plan was pure dumb and it failed-just as the past 180 years of baseball history suggested it would. We watched an ugly series of strikeouts, pop-outs and ever-so-exciting solo home runs for the first 80-90 games before the FO had to throw their hands up in the air and allow the hitters return to a reasonable approach. That is simply what happened. Thank God it ended. Sadly, that first half pushed me away and I'm now out of the habit of watching Twins games. I know it is a different offense now, but I'm finding it hard to care.

Your comment got a lot of thumbs up. Clearly, you're not alone in your perspective, but I don't see how any observer can  reasonably see this another way.

Where we do agree, is that Pablo Lopez is a valuable asset that they were right to want. Hopefully, it works out for the team.