Twins Should Target This MVP Who is Actually Available

[Adam Friedman]

He's the 2019 NL MVP, he plays center field, he'll be a free agent, and he shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. Cody Bellinger should be a priority. 

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

As the Twins' lineup toils away, many fans and analysts have brought up superstars such as Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as trade targets to fix the offense. While they certainly could help, it might make sense for the Twins to set their sights a bit lower on the rental market to retain prospect capital while improving the team. A former rookie of the year, MVP, and World Series champion fits the bill for this smaller but still impactful move. By bringing in Cody Bellinger, the Twins can replace one of their worst hitters with an above-average hitter who brings athleticism, versatility, and a low strikeout rate. 

Why It Makes Sense
Upgrade on Michael A. Taylor
When the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor, most observers expected that he would be a heavily used 4th outfielder. The Twins could rely on his tremendous center field defense while Byron Buxton began the year as the full-time designated hitter. Halfway through the season, Buxton is still the DH, and Taylor is the full-time center fielder.

While Taylor has been terrific in center field and on the basepaths, stealing 11 bases so far, he has been as advertised at the plate, sporting a poor 84 wRC+, fueled by a Joey Gallo-esque 34.1% K%. Upgrading on Taylor's poor hitting is an excellent way for the Twins to improve the offensive output, and that's where Bellinger makes a ton of sense. He's had a bounce-back season where he's put up an outstanding 2.4 fWAR- driven by an offensive rebirth where he's put up a very solid 135 wRC+.

Part of Bellinger's hitting success is drastically cutting his strikeout rate to 17.5% from 27.3% in 2022. This is much closer to the 16.4% K% that helped him win the MVP. Bellinger is a terrific center fielder, too, and has 11 stolen bases as well. In Bellinger, the Twins could acquire a massive upgrade at the plate without sacrificing Taylor's stolen bases and defense- while bumping Taylor to a minor role that he fits better in.

Offensive and Defensive Versatility 
In addition to being a general upgrade on Taylor at the plate, Bellinger provides the team with versatility at the plate and in the field that manager Rocco Baldelli would appreciate having at his disposal. Not only can Bellinger play a good center field, but he also won a gold glove in right field in 2019. Should Buxton be able to play center field down the stretch, Bellinger could capably slide over to right field. Bellinger can also play first base, so Baldelli could shuffle things around to accommodate other outfielders. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Bellinger provides a bit of power with 11 home runs, speed with 11 stolen bases, and the ability to limit strikeouts, as previously mentioned. Beyond these diverse skills, in 2023,

Bellinger has had reverse splits- which is highly unusual for a left-handed hitter. He has posted a solid 108 wRC+ against righties and an incredible 191 wRC+ against lefties for the Cubs, driven by a .671 SLG. It is unlikely that this success against lefties would sustain. He has a career of 106 wRC+ against lefties, much lower than his career of 123 wRC+ against righties. If it did sustain, though, it would be a massive advantage for the Twins, who have struggled mightily against lefties all season. 

Red Flags
While Bellinger's success this season has been a fun story and a pleasant surprise, there are certainly some red flags that could indicate acquiring Bellinger might work out poorly. 

First, his batted ball data doesn't indicate that his performance has been that much better than the last two horrible seasons. His hard hit % and barrel % are down, and his max exit velocity still isn't where it was at his MVP peak. 

Second, he had a great start to the season in April but was awful in May and June. He has been great again in July, but is he just another streaky bat? If so, Bellinger may be going into a massive slump when the Twins need him to hit. 

Third, the data on his success against lefties is extraordinary based on his track record. That seems like a fluke, which begs the question, is Bellinger's 2023 season a fluke? It remains to be seen how Bellinger finishes his season, but given what he's done in 2023 up to this point, he would be a worthwhile acquisition, despite these question marks - only if the price is right. 

The Cost

To determine the cost of acquiring Bellinger, the 2021 Kris Bryant trade from the Cubs to the Giants and the 2022 Andrew Benintendi trade from Kansas City to the Yankees provide excellent comparisons, based on the level of player that season and them being on expiring deals.

In the Benintendi deal, the Royals received the Yankees' 19th and 21st best prospects at the time and one outside of the top 30, per MLB Pipeline. The Cubs received the Giants' 9th and 30th best prospects in the Bryant deal, per MLB Pipeline. The best prospect at the time in either deal was Alex Canario

in the Bryant deal, which Fangraphs had as a 45 FV prospect, who was a boom or bust type of prospect, yet to hit at the professional level. While our friends at Northside Baseball suggest Bellinger could maybe command Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, or Marco Raya, it seems likely the Twins could hold onto those prospects, and a package around Tanner Schobel or even Kala'i Rosario might get the job done. 

The Cubs may place a lot of value on the opportunity to make Bellinger a qualifying offer. Still, given the questions about Bellinger's ability to sustain this performance, it's possible he could accept the offer. It's unclear if the Cubs would want to risk committing around $20 million in 2024 to Bellinger, with their top prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong , likely to come up at some point in the season to take over in center. If the qualifying offer raises the value the Cubs ask for, the Twins can make a slightly stronger offer. 

Regardless of the qualifying offer, Bellinger could give the Twins a massive upgrade at one of their lousy lineup's weakest spots. Bringing in Bellinger could help the Twins secure a division title without being a move that guts an already somewhat depleted farm system. 

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[Mike Sixel]

If I can get him for schoebel, it's great

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He's a little bit of a wild card, but seems like he would definitely be worth a shot.  He could take over in CF and be an offensive improvement over MAT while not being a disaster on defense.  He is "ANOTHER" lefty outfielder, but he has been at least league average in his career against the same sided pitching.  If we do trade for him, it would behoove the team to temper the expectations.  His 2019 is not any more sustainable nor indicative of future success than Max Kepler's 2019.  If a prospect or two around #20 would make this happen, I say do it. 

Refresh me on "mutual options".  There's a mutual option out there for 2024.  Does this mean that if either one wants to exercise the option it's a done deal, or do both sides need to agree to do it?  If he's good, I would want to keep him.  If he's not, he may want to keep us!

 

[ashbury]

56 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Refresh me on "mutual options".  There's a mutual option out there for 2024.  Does this mean that if either one wants to exercise the option it's a done deal, or do both sides need to agree to do it?  If he's good, I would want to keep him.  If he's not, he may want to keep us

To my surprise, MLB addresses this in their glossary, which I now have bookmarked for future reference.  I think this is the second time this week something was right there (the discussion of how Jax didn't get the win when he was nominally the pitcher of record when the team took the lead for good) to settle a question.  Kudos to them. 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/mutual-option

Anyway, both sides must agree. 

Including a mutual option in a long-term contract strikes me as similar to middle-school BFFs who lose track of each other after they go away to college.

[bighat]

A streaky left-handed hitting outfielder with a huge looping swing who hits .219 and strikes out half the time?!?!?

Don't we already have like, 4 of those guys? How would Bellinger help? 

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, bighat said:

A streaky left-handed hitting outfielder with a huge looping swing who hits .219 and strikes out half the time?!?!?

Don't we already have like, 4 of those guys? How would Bellinger help? 

Try .an over .300 BA and a 17% k rate for this year

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Try .an over .300 BA and a 17% k rate for this year

and a 887 OPS and great defense.  IDK about this year but a nice target for this off-season.  Next year is his age 29 season.  Question is how many years it will take.  You wouldn't think anyone is going to give him something crazy long given his struggles the previous 2 years.

[jmlease1]

It's interesting. I have a feeling he might get priced out of our range, because I have no interest in sending anyone like Festa or Raya out for him (or Kirilloff, but the Cubs seem to be looking for pitching). If they want to start talking about guys like Cory Lewis or Zebby Matthews, I'm much more interested in the idea.

Would he keep slamming lefties like he has this season? He's never had bad splits over his career, and when he's been going good he hits everyone. It's a concern, but he sure seems to be healthy and rolling right now.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Historically they Twins do not trade for rentals, they look for guys to keep.

A left handed hitting OF that is going to be expensive and has not shown to be consistent?

I don't see the Twins even considering this... 

[USAFChief]

"The Cubs may place a lot of value on the opportunity to make Bellinger a qualifying offer."

 

Nitpic: as discussed elsewhere, the mutual option will preclude the Cubs from making a QO this winter.

I like Bellinger, but I think the proper opportunity to get him was instead of Gallo LAST winter.

Now I think the cost will be higher than this article estimates. 

So no.

 

 

[dex8425]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Historically they Twins do not trade for rentals, they look for guys to keep.
 

Sergio Romo was a rental.  So was Sam Dyson, I believe. 

[umterp23]

Would you send Gordon, Corey Lewis and Simeon Wood-Richardson?

[dex8425]

Bellinger for Larnach-who says no?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

Sergio Romo was a rental.  So was Sam Dyson, I believe. 

Two RP, four years ago...  I stand corrected.  I did not say never, I said historically... 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

and a 887 OPS and great defense.  IDK about this year but a nice target for this off-season.  Next year is his age 29 season.  Question is how many years it will take.  You wouldn't think anyone is going to give him something crazy long given his struggles the previous 2 years.

There always seems to be a crazy team. A one year rebound still should raise a red flag. What team other than the Twins would do something like that. Maybe the Angels or the Yankees.  A 3 year contract is even a risk. He got big money from the Dodgers and tanked. This is a contract year. I don’t think anyone should go more than a year with him. Don’t know what the makeup of Berlinger is. He could be great for another 5-6 years if he has the drive to do that

[weitz41]

Umm..No they shouldn't...He's going to get a large contract this off season. Why part with good to great prospects for 2 months or what we already have? Similar to the Goldschmidt fantasies...a small improvement over what already is there. Sure, the name is a YEAH! If you look at the Baseball reference numbers, you should go..IDK that's a lot for not that much of an upgrade...

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Historically they Twins do not trade for rentals, they look for guys to keep.

A left handed hitting OF that is going to be expensive and has not shown to be consistent?

I don't see the Twins even considering this... 

Rental relief pitchers really shouldn’t count.  People can name rental relievers, but forget that the cost was minimal

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Umm..No they shouldn't...He's going to get a large contract this off season. Why part with good to great prospects for 2 months or what we already have? Similar to the Goldschmidt fantasies...a small improvement over what already is there. Sure, the name is a YEAH! If you look at the Baseball reference numbers, you should go..IDK that's a lot for not that much of an upgrade...

Berlinger for this year is a huge improvement over Taylor

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am still waiting for the " Gallo, Kepler and Pagan" package to be offered...

One fell swoop we would shut down 75% of the TD posts.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Umm..No they shouldn't...He's going to get a large contract this off season. Why part with good to great prospects for 2 months or what we already have? Similar to the Goldschmidt fantasies...a small improvement over what already is there. Sure, the name is a YEAH! If you look at the Baseball reference numbers, you should go..IDK that's a lot for not that much of an upgrade...

How do they already have him this year? How is it a small improvement over MAT?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

There always seems to be a crazy team. A one year rebound still should raise a red flag. What team other than the Twins would do something like that. Maybe the Angels or the Yankees.  A 3 year contract is even a risk. He got big money from the Dodgers and tanked. This is a contract year. I don’t think anyone should go more than a year with him. Don’t know what the makeup of Berlinger is. He could be great for another 5-6 years if he has the drive to do that

They were talking about Bellinger on the MLB radio network last week kind of marveling at the work he put in to "bounce back".  IDK if it was just hyperbole but the consensus on the show was, he worked hard and had a great make-up.

It will be really interesting to see how many years a team is willing to go but I will bet someone gives him 3 years or more.

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

but the consensus on the show was, he worked hard and had a great make-up.

Must be the trade deadline version of "he's in the best shape of his life" in spring training.

[DocBauer]

IDK, I'm really torn on this idea. I guess I had forgotten he had a shoulder injury a couple years ago that might have affected him, and now, in theory, completely healthy and looking more like his old self.

Would he be a very useful and immediate upgrade in CF over Taylor and Castro? Yes, with no disrespect to what those two have done. And CF IS an issue, now and potentially in the near future. IMO, unfortunately, for this year and next, the only smart way to approach CF is to assume Buxton's knees/legs are going to force him to DH permanently. And it's up to him, and the Twins, to figure out how to make the mental and physical adjustment to being in that role. But Bellinger is only a rental at this point. Does he provide enough of a difference for the rest of the season vs the cost to get him?

My priorities right now is a solid, RH bat who is capable against RH pitching, and can help mash LHP to help correct the Twins ineptitude against such. An inexpensive rental...who might be a re-sign candidate...is just fine. I don't want to trade away a bunch of top 10-20 prospects yet again. 

I also want a solid, dependable RH pen arm similar to Romo a few years ago, or Fulmer last year. Solid rental, low cost, and again a possible re-sign. 

Neither of those additions should break the prospect "bank" and might be, arguably, a higher priority right now than replacing the good defense and poor/mediocre offense of the #9 hitter. I think there's a valid arguement to made that Julien, AK, Lewis back in August, and the resurgent Correa are more important. And there is the real potential of Polanco back in a couple of weeks to also make a difference. The Buxton issue needs to be figured out, of course, back on track or on the IL to get a mental and physical break and hopes of still contributing. But I'm just not going down that rabbit hole right now.

IMO, the FO went about 90% IN this past offseason and then stopped short. Had they kept Fulmer, or signed someone similar, and grabbed a RH OF, McCutchon just for example, we might not be talking about necessary additions right now, and trading away more prospects. And Bellinger might be a primary target right now.

Let's just say the Twins can get a pair of rentals, for the above, that only cost them 4 guys in the teens and twenties off the prospect list. Who knows, maybe one kid in the thirties. What does a rental of Bellinger cost to the rebuilding Cubs? Does a duo of  Severino/Schobel and  Lewis/Mathews/Culpepper make it happen? Is that too rich? Are some of those already gone with the 1st 2 additions?

Kepler has never said he won't play CF, only that he prefers to stick in RF, and that he's felt in the past he wears out playing too much CF. But how about playing there a couple times a week to finish out this season? Surely that's not too much to ask. Potentially, you open up a spot for Wallner. You give Taylor time off. Castro can be the multipurpose player he is, and doesn't have to play daily. Again, potentially, you increase offensive output, give valuable time to a quality prospect, and deepen your bench on those days. And you aren't trading 6 prospects, in theory, but 4.

Might that not be the smartest way to go?

 

[Lefty61]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Historically they Twins do not trade for rentals, they look for guys to keep.

A left handed hitting OF that is going to be expensive and has not shown to be consistent?

I don't see the Twins even considering this... 

2003 Twins July trade for Shannon Stewart certainly was a rental, and that turned out quite well as Stewart was catalyst for 19-7 Sept that locked down first.  Could Bellinger be that type of spark this year?  A couple prospects not yet in AA would be worth the opportunity to bring in a proven bat again.  

[TNTwinsFan]

9 hours ago, umterp23 said:

Would you send Gordon, Corey Lewis and Simeon Wood-Richardson?

Substitute Zebby for Lewis and yes. In a heart beat.

[Aerodeliria]

The Cubs will demand more than the Twins are willing to cough up IMHO, but someone will be willing. We should shoot for something a bit more reasonable like 'Nootbar,' who has a nice WAR and doesn't K every other at bat. (Besides, Pearson Candy can make a new candy bar with his name and photo on it. Noot Bar night at Target Field...imagine... ;-)

[pierre75275]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

IDK, I'm really torn on this idea. I guess I had forgotten he had a shoulder injury a couple years ago that might have affected him, and now, in theory, completely healthy and looking more like his old self.

Would he be a very useful and immediate upgrade in CF over Taylor and Castro? Yes, with no disrespect to what those two have done. And CF IS an issue, now and potentially in the near future. IMO, unfortunately, for this year and next, the only smart way to approach CF is to assume Buxton's knees/legs are going to force him to DH permanently. And it's up to him, and the Twins, to figure out how to make the mental and physical adjustment to being in that role. But Bellinger is only a rental at this point. Does he provide enough of a difference for the rest of the season vs the cost to get him?

My priorities right now is a solid, RH bat who is capable against RH pitching, and can help mash LHP to help correct the Twins ineptitude against such. An inexpensive rental...who might be a re-sign candidate...is just fine. I don't want to trade away a bunch of top 10-20 prospects yet again. 

I also want a solid, dependable RH pen arm similar to Romo a few years ago, or Fulmer last year. Solid rental, low cost, and again a possible re-sign. 

Neither of those additions should break the prospect "bank" and might be, arguably, a higher priority right now than replacing the good defense and poor/mediocre offense of the #9 hitter. I think there's a valid arguement to made that Julien, AK, Lewis back in August, and the resurgent Correa are more important. And there is the real potential of Polanco back in a couple of weeks to also make a difference. The Buxton issue needs to be figured out, of course, back on track or on the IL to get a mental and physical break and hopes of still contributing. But I'm just not going down that rabbit hole right now.

IMO, the FO went about 90% IN this past offseason and then stopped short. Had they kept Fulmer, or signed someone similar, and grabbed a RH OF, McCutchon just for example, we might not be talking about necessary additions right now, and trading away more prospects. And Bellinger might be a primary target right now.

Let's just say the Twins can get a pair of rentals, for the above, that only cost them 4 guys in the teens and twenties off the prospect list. Who knows, maybe one kid in the thirties. What does a rental of Bellinger cost to the rebuilding Cubs? Does a duo of  Severino/Schobel and  Lewis/Mathews/Culpepper make it happen? Is that too rich? Are some of those already gone with the 1st 2 additions?

Kepler has never said he won't play CF, only that he prefers to stick in RF, and that he's felt in the past he wears out playing too much CF. But how about playing there a couple times a week to finish out this season? Surely that's not too much to ask. Potentially, you open up a spot for Wallner. You give Taylor time off. Castro can be the multipurpose player he is, and doesn't have to play daily. Again, potentially, you increase offensive output, give valuable time to a quality prospect, and deepen your bench on those days. And you aren't trading 6 prospects, in theory, but 4.

Might that not be the smartest way to go?

 

I believe it was Sunday during the TV broadcast that Bremer said Rocko was asked why Kepler wasn't in center and Rocko said that his defense was so good in right, management didn't want to mess with it by putting Kep in center.

Maybe Rocko was just protecting one of his players but I am curious where the Kepler refuses to play center comes from.

[old nurse]

50 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

 

Maybe Rocko was just protecting one of his players but I am curious where the Kepler refuses to play center comes from.

Fan sites?

[Otaknam]

Nix n this trade, especially if Tanner Schobel is included. Bellinger is reviving his career, but he’s another lefty batter the lineup doesn’t need. I like CJ Cron as an option and it probably wouldn’t cost very much. This team isn’t a World Series contender, so the front office needs to recognize that and not trade assets that have a lot of future value, in favor of a slight upgrade this year. 

[twinfan]

Bellinger for Kiriloff? Are you crazy? Maybe for a bag of used baseballs and a low A prospect. No way otherwise. If you really want to win, shoot for Arenado and see what the Cards want. Cron was here but I don't see him helping that much.