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As the Twins' lineup toils away, many fans and analysts have brought up superstars such as Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as trade targets to fix the offense. While they certainly could help, it might make sense for the Twins to set their sights a bit lower on the rental market to retain prospect capital while improving the team. A former rookie of the year, MVP, and World Series champion fits the bill for this smaller but still impactful move. By bringing in Cody Bellinger, the Twins can replace one of their worst hitters with an above-average hitter who brings athleticism, versatility, and a low strikeout rate.
Why It Makes Sense
Upgrade on Michael A. Taylor
When the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor, most observers expected that he would be a heavily used 4th outfielder. The Twins could rely on his tremendous center field defense while Byron Buxton began the year as the full-time designated hitter. Halfway through the season, Buxton is still the DH, and Taylor is the full-time center fielder.
While Taylor has been terrific in center field and on the basepaths, stealing 11 bases so far, he has been as advertised at the plate, sporting a poor 84 wRC+, fueled by a Joey Gallo-esque 34.1% K%. Upgrading on Taylor's poor hitting is an excellent way for the Twins to improve the offensive output, and that's where Bellinger makes a ton of sense. He's had a bounce-back season where he's put up an outstanding 2.4 fWAR- driven by an offensive rebirth where he's put up a very solid 135 wRC+.
Part of Bellinger's hitting success is drastically cutting his strikeout rate to 17.5% from 27.3% in 2022. This is much closer to the 16.4% K% that helped him win the MVP. Bellinger is a terrific center fielder, too, and has 11 stolen bases as well. In Bellinger, the Twins could acquire a massive upgrade at the plate without sacrificing Taylor's stolen bases and defense- while bumping Taylor to a minor role that he fits better in.
Offensive and Defensive Versatility
In addition to being a general upgrade on Taylor at the plate, Bellinger provides the team with versatility at the plate and in the field that manager Rocco Baldelli would appreciate having at his disposal. Not only can Bellinger play a good center field, but he also won a gold glove in right field in 2019. Should Buxton be able to play center field down the stretch, Bellinger could capably slide over to right field. Bellinger can also play first base, so Baldelli could shuffle things around to accommodate other outfielders.
On the offensive side of the ball, Bellinger provides a bit of power with 11 home runs, speed with 11 stolen bases, and the ability to limit strikeouts, as previously mentioned. Beyond these diverse skills, in 2023,
Bellinger has had reverse splits- which is highly unusual for a left-handed hitter. He has posted a solid 108 wRC+ against righties and an incredible 191 wRC+ against lefties for the Cubs, driven by a .671 SLG. It is unlikely that this success against lefties would sustain. He has a career of 106 wRC+ against lefties, much lower than his career of 123 wRC+ against righties. If it did sustain, though, it would be a massive advantage for the Twins, who have struggled mightily against lefties all season.
Red Flags
While Bellinger's success this season has been a fun story and a pleasant surprise, there are certainly some red flags that could indicate acquiring Bellinger might work out poorly.
First, his batted ball data doesn't indicate that his performance has been that much better than the last two horrible seasons. His hard hit % and barrel % are down, and his max exit velocity still isn't where it was at his MVP peak.
Second, he had a great start to the season in April but was awful in May and June. He has been great again in July, but is he just another streaky bat? If so, Bellinger may be going into a massive slump when the Twins need him to hit.
Third, the data on his success against lefties is extraordinary based on his track record. That seems like a fluke, which begs the question, is Bellinger's 2023 season a fluke? It remains to be seen how Bellinger finishes his season, but given what he's done in 2023 up to this point, he would be a worthwhile acquisition, despite these question marks - only if the price is right.
The Cost
To determine the cost of acquiring Bellinger, the 2021 Kris Bryant trade from the Cubs to the Giants and the 2022 Andrew Benintendi trade from Kansas City to the Yankees provide excellent comparisons, based on the level of player that season and them being on expiring deals.
In the Benintendi deal, the Royals received the Yankees' 19th and 21st best prospects at the time and one outside of the top 30, per MLB Pipeline. The Cubs received the Giants' 9th and 30th best prospects in the Bryant deal, per MLB Pipeline. The best prospect at the time in either deal was Alex Canario
in the Bryant deal, which Fangraphs had as a 45 FV prospect, who was a boom or bust type of prospect, yet to hit at the professional level. While our friends at Northside Baseball suggest Bellinger could maybe command Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, or Marco Raya, it seems likely the Twins could hold onto those prospects, and a package around Tanner Schobel or even Kala'i Rosario might get the job done.
The Cubs may place a lot of value on the opportunity to make Bellinger a qualifying offer. Still, given the questions about Bellinger's ability to sustain this performance, it's possible he could accept the offer. It's unclear if the Cubs would want to risk committing around $20 million in 2024 to Bellinger, with their top prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong , likely to come up at some point in the season to take over in center. If the qualifying offer raises the value the Cubs ask for, the Twins can make a slightly stronger offer.
Regardless of the qualifying offer, Bellinger could give the Twins a massive upgrade at one of their lousy lineup's weakest spots. Bringing in Bellinger could help the Twins secure a division title without being a move that guts an already somewhat depleted farm system.
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