Royce Lewis Excelling as Rare Young 5-Tool Player

[Cody Schoenmann]

Not many young players are fully actualized 5-Tool players by the time they get their first full-time opportunity at the Major League level, but Twins top prospect Royce Lewis is. Analyzing all 5-tools, let's see how Lewis has impacted the Twins so far. 

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

When Royce Lewis returned from the 60-day IL on May 29, it was precisely one year (May 29, 2022) to the date since he tore his ACL for a second time. There was a sense of optimism that hadn't been present among Twins fans since 2019. Lewis was healthy, the Twins were playing relatively well, and there was cause for naïve optimism.

While the Twins offense has underperformed since Lewis' return, the 2017 top pick has performed well. He is hitting .315/.333/.507 (.840) with an above-average wRC+ of 134 through 75 plate appearances but has shown signs of plate discipline and swing-and-miss issues as illustrated by his high strikeout rater (K%) of 28.0% and well below league average walk percentage (BB%) of just 2.8%.

Despite showing a lack of discipline at the plate, a common trait for young major-league hitters, Lewis has undoubtedly been one of the Twins best hitters since his return and arguably their best hitter in June. 

Lewis, who fits the mold of the five-tool player trope almost perfectly, has displayed the ability to hit for power. He hit two home runs over the past week while also sporting an Isolated Power (ISO), which measures a hitter's raw power and how often that player hits for extra bases, of .192, which is well above-average. 

Although Lewis' ISO of .192 may be somewhat inflated due to 75 plate appearances being a small sample size, there is reason to believe Lewis' power tool will be sustainable, though that at quite that rate. 

Defensively, Lewis has had some initial struggles with accurately throwing the ball to first after ranging to his left or right. However, he has shown continual progression as a near-everyday third baseman while making the occasional spectacular play.

The last area of Lewis' game is his speed. After being drafted first overall in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft, many analysts labeled Lewis as one of the fastest prospects in baseball. Unfortunately, after tearing his right ACL in back-to-back years, Lewis' speed has regressed, but early signs show he is still a very speedy player.

Lewis is rated the 82nd fastest player in Major League Baseball, alongside players like Marcus Semien and Nico Hoerner. Lewis, on average, gets from home plate to first base in 4.38 seconds while topping at 28.5 feet/second, which ranks him as the fourth fastest Twins player behind Byron Buxton (33rd), Willi Castro (62nd) and Michael A. Taylor (77th).

Buxton, Castro, and Taylor are the only Twins players who have attempted a relatively high volume of steal attempts and have done so at a very successful rate. 

On stolen base attempts, Buxton is 6-for-6, Castro is 13-for-15 (86%), and Taylor is 11-for-11 (100%). Combined, they are 30-for-32 on steal attempts, a 93% success rate. Should the Twins consider adding Lewis to the base-stealing mix? 

Last week against the Boston Red Sox, Lewis stole his first base in the big leagues. Firsts are always a big deal for any young player, but knowing what Lewis has had to endure the last two years physically, stealing his first base had to be particularly satisfying, considering that base stealing is one of the more dangerous aspects of baseball.

During the 2022 season, Lewis, in 41 games played with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, was 12/14 (85%) on stolen base attempts.

While rehabbing with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge and Triple-A St. Paul Saints this season, Lewis was 3-for-4 (75%) on stolen base attempts.

Having Lewis attempt to steal bases is a good indicator of the Twins comfort level with Lewis and the strength and overall health of his twice surgically repaired right knee. With Lewis playing more back-to-backs, attempting to steal bases, and getting platooned for less-and-less, the Twins appear close to allowing Lewis to take on a full-time role similar to other key infielders in Carlos Correa and, when healthy, Jorge Polanco. 

When healthy, Lewis is a dynamic hitter and fielder who showcases his arm strength, power, and speed, which makes him a true five-tool player. With Lewis having nearly a month of good health and above-average offensive production under his belt, adding him to the immensely successful base-stealing tandem of Buxton, Castro, and Taylor. It would undoubtedly help the Twins base running game which desperately needs a kickstart as the Twins as a team are tied for 28th in Major League Baseball with just 36 stolen bases. 

For reference, the first-place Tampa Bay Rays have 96 stolen bases as a team, and stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz of the Oakland Athletics currently has 39 stolen bases.

With the bases getting bigger and pick-off attempts being limited, stolen base rates have gone up exponentially this year, and the best teams in baseball are taking advantage of this small ball element to help them win games. The Twins should join the party, and one of the more obvious ways to start is by having their fourth-fastest player attempt to steal bases more often.

What do you think of Royce Lewis stealing bases? Do you want Lewis to attempt to steal bases at a higher rate?

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[High heat]

If his legs are feeling good and he is ready to run give him the green light!!!

This team I’m not hitting with runners on and is striking out way to much need to find a way to generate offense and stealing bases might be it.

[jkcarew]

If he is a true 5-tool guy, he might be the first ever whose club chose to make him a 3rd baseman at age 24.

[Shaitan]

I only 'watch' Gameday? Is he (still) fast, or did the surgeries take that element away, based on the eye test?

[RpR]

"Defensively, Lewis has had some initial struggles with accurately throwing the ball to first after ranging to his left or right. However, he has shown continual progression as a near-everyday third baseman while making the occasional spectacular play."

His bat is good, his fielding is not good.

[Craig Arko]

 

[Beast]

He still has to prove he can clear the health hurdle.  But, the early returns are promising.  I’m not sure this team would still be afloat right now if not for his on-field contributions and infectious positivity.

5 tool may be a little strong.  But he’s certainly got a number of things going for him right now

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

If he is a true 5-tool guy, he might be the first ever whose club chose to make him a 3rd baseman at age 24.

Alex Bregman. Also moved to 3rd for Correa. Although I think Brooks Lee comps better to Bregman as a player type there you go.

5th tool isn't just speed, it's speed and baserunning.

[aberamsey]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

"Defensively, Lewis has had some initial struggles with accurately throwing the ball to first after ranging to his left or right. However, he has shown continual progression as a near-everyday third baseman while making the occasional spectacular play."

His bat is good, his fielding is not good.

Not good is a bit of an overstatement, unless you are part of the crowd on this site that wanted him sent to St. Paul this past Tuesday. 

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, aberamsey said:

Not good is a bit of an overstatement, unless you are part of the crowd on this site that wanted him sent to St. Paul this past Tuesday. 

He fielding is no better than Nick Maton, who was sent to AAA after the game,  his bat is keeping him here but for how long.

[SwainZag]

38 minutes ago, RpR said:

He fielding is no better than Nick Maton, who was sent to AAA after the game,  his bat is keeping him here but for how long.

I'm willing to bet that Royce doesn't see AAA unless he is rehabbing an injury.   He's here to stay. 

[Rik19753]

Royce may be the true superstar that we desperately need. The Twins have too many average players who are too good to cut but not good enough to provide significant value IMO. Guys like Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach are nice, but it is easy to find these corner outfield type of players as evidenced by Gallo and Kepler. Royce seems like the kind of player that has the tools to become a MVP type talent, and that is truly exciting. 

[Karbo]

A key piece of the new core pending health.

[terrydactyls]

From what little I've seen of Lewis, what I like best is his hustle.  Stretching singles to doubles, doubles to triples, scoring from first on a base hit, etc. can ignite a team.  Glad he's back - to stay (I hope).

[NotAboutWinning]

And apparently he has a bright future as a hitting coach... Take what the pitcher gives you rather than striking out waiting for a mistake!

[chpettit19]

15 hours ago, Shaitan said:

I only 'watch' Gameday? Is he (still) fast, or did the surgeries take that element away, based on the eye test?

He's still fast. Not sure he's quite as fast, but he's definitely still fast.

[Blyleven2011]

Royce Lewis hasn't much of a track record here in the MLB  , but he has been  a highly regarded prospect since the draft ...

He has tools he needs to refine and he is just the person that can do it with his baseball instincts  ...

I won't speculate  on his future  at this time but maybe next year I'll have a better knowledge of what type of player he will be ...

As for stealing bases I'm sure since management is concerned of injuries they are holding him back some ,  due to his 2 surgeries and I don't blame management  for that at all at least for this season ...

[Cody Schoenmann]

On 6/25/2023 at 6:29 PM, jkcarew said:

If he is a true 5-tool guy, he might be the first ever whose club chose to make him a 3rd baseman at age 24.

Elly De La Cruz plays mostly 3B for the Reds and he is only 21. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He's still fast. Not sure he's quite as fast, but he's definitely still fast.

If Lewis didn't tear his ACL twice in two years, I think there is a good chance he is the fastest player on the Twins and a top 30 fastest player in Major League Baseball. I feel empathetic towards Royce for all that he had to go with tearing his ACL twice in two years. I am happy that he has been able to stay healthy since getting activated from the 60-day IL.

[Cody Schoenmann]

On 6/25/2023 at 6:37 PM, RpR said:

"Defensively, Lewis has had some initial struggles with accurately throwing the ball to first after ranging to his left or right. However, he has shown continual progression as a near-everyday third baseman while making the occasional spectacular play."

His bat is good, his fielding is not good.

In my opinion, Lewis is a better fielding third baseman than Farmer, Castro, and Solano. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[jkcarew]

The Reds also have a center fielder OPS’ing 849. Not quite the same opportunity cost. They also have a healthy budding star at second, and 2 corner outfielders OPS’ing 800-850.

The Reds may be wasting De La Cruz’s range (I don’t know)…but they’re not sacrificing offense. The Twins are doing both.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

In my opinion, Lewis is better fielding third baseman than Farmer, Castro, and Solano. 

Better tnan Famer and Solano, could be; Castro is a far, far superior Third Baseman.

 

[jkcarew]

13 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

And apparently he has a bright future as a hitting coach... Take what the pitcher gives you rather than striking out waiting for a mistake!

Lewis is K’ing at about the same rate as the Twin’s average rate, which is above league average. He’s K’ing more than Kepler and Correa, to name a couple.

He does seem to have the ability and wherewithal to adapt approach to some at-bats based on the game situation. Or maybe I’m just seeing things based on hope. Time will tell.

[Cody Schoenmann]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

Better tnan Famer and Solano, could be; Castro is a far, far superior Third Baseman.

 

I do like Castro at 3B and I think it is his best defensive position. He has an incredible arm and his range is good as well. The only problem is the Castro doesn't hit well enough to get a long look as a third baseman, so he needs to be a utility player to stay in the Majors.