Royce Lewis Excelling as Rare Young 5-Tool Player

When Royce Lewis returned from the 60-day IL on May 29, it was precisely one year (May 29, 2022) to the date since he tore his ACL for a second time. There was a sense of optimism that hadn't been present among Twins fans since 2019. Lewis was healthy, the Twins were playing relatively well, and there was cause for naïve optimism.

While the Twins offense has underperformed since Lewis' return, the 2017 top pick has performed well. He is hitting .315/.333/.507 (.840) with an above-average wRC+ of 134 through 75 plate appearances but has shown signs of plate discipline and swing-and-miss issues as illustrated by his high strikeout rater (K%) of 28.0% and well below league average walk percentage (BB%) of just 2.8%.

Despite showing a lack of discipline at the plate, a common trait for young major-league hitters, Lewis has undoubtedly been one of the Twins best hitters since his return and arguably their best hitter in June. 

Lewis, who fits the mold of the five-tool player trope almost perfectly, has displayed the ability to hit for power. He hit two home runs over the past week while also sporting an Isolated Power (ISO), which measures a hitter's raw power and how often that player hits for extra bases, of .192, which is well above-average. 

Although Lewis' ISO of .192 may be somewhat inflated due to 75 plate appearances being a small sample size, there is reason to believe Lewis' power tool will be sustainable, though that at quite that rate. 

Defensively, Lewis has had some initial struggles with accurately throwing the ball to first after ranging to his left or right. However, he has shown continual progression as a near-everyday third baseman while making the occasional spectacular play.

The last area of Lewis' game is his speed. After being drafted first overall in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft, many analysts labeled Lewis as one of the fastest prospects in baseball. Unfortunately, after tearing his right ACL in back-to-back years, Lewis' speed has regressed, but early signs show he is still a very speedy player.

Lewis is rated the 82nd fastest player in Major League Baseball, alongside players like Marcus Semien and Nico Hoerner. Lewis, on average, gets from home plate to first base in 4.38 seconds while topping at 28.5 feet/second, which ranks him as the fourth fastest Twins player behind Byron Buxton (33rd), Willi Castro (62nd) and Michael A. Taylor (77th).

Buxton, Castro, and Taylor are the only Twins players who have attempted a relatively high volume of steal attempts and have done so at a very successful rate. 

On stolen base attempts, Buxton is 6-for-6, Castro is 13-for-15 (86%), and Taylor is 11-for-11 (100%). Combined, they are 30-for-32 on steal attempts, a 93% success rate. Should the Twins consider adding Lewis to the base-stealing mix? 

Last week against the Boston Red Sox, Lewis stole his first base in the big leagues. Firsts are always a big deal for any young player, but knowing what Lewis has had to endure the last two years physically, stealing his first base had to be particularly satisfying, considering that base stealing is one of the more dangerous aspects of baseball.

During the 2022 season, Lewis, in 41 games played with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, was 12/14 (85%) on stolen base attempts.

While rehabbing with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge and Triple-A St. Paul Saints this season, Lewis was 3-for-4 (75%) on stolen base attempts.

Having Lewis attempt to steal bases is a good indicator of the Twins comfort level with Lewis and the strength and overall health of his twice surgically repaired right knee. With Lewis playing more back-to-backs, attempting to steal bases, and getting platooned for less-and-less, the Twins appear close to allowing Lewis to take on a full-time role similar to other key infielders in Carlos Correa and, when healthy, Jorge Polanco. 

When healthy, Lewis is a dynamic hitter and fielder who showcases his arm strength, power, and speed, which makes him a true five-tool player. With Lewis having nearly a month of good health and above-average offensive production under his belt, adding him to the immensely successful base-stealing tandem of Buxton, Castro, and Taylor. It would undoubtedly help the Twins base running game which desperately needs a kickstart as the Twins as a team are tied for 28th in Major League Baseball with just 36 stolen bases. 

For reference, the first-place Tampa Bay Rays have 96 stolen bases as a team, and stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz of the Oakland Athletics currently has 39 stolen bases.

With the bases getting bigger and pick-off attempts being limited, stolen base rates have gone up exponentially this year, and the best teams in baseball are taking advantage of this small ball element to help them win games. The Twins should join the party, and one of the more obvious ways to start is by having their fourth-fastest player attempt to steal bases more often.

What do you think of Royce Lewis stealing bases? Do you want Lewis to attempt to steal bases at a higher rate?