Do you believe in these Twins?

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Per Fangraphs, Eovaldi actually has a higher WAR (2.7) than Gray (2.5)

Baseball reference has Gray 2.8 and Eovaldi at 2.5, Jon Gray 2.4, who has 1 less start, more innings (1.2) and a lower whip?

[cHawk]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Baseball reference has Gray 2.8 and Eovaldi at 2.5, Jon Gray 2.4, who has 1 less start, more innings (1.2) and a lower whip?

Gray does have a lower ERA (2.25 to Eovaldi’s 2.49), lower FIP (2.42 to Eovaldi’s 2.61) and a higher BABIP (.318 to Eovaldi’s .281) so I assume BR values those numbers more in their calculation than Fangraphs does in theirs.

[MABB1959]

17 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

By having probably 3 starting pitchers and 2 relievers deserving of the All Star roster?

Pitchers is the only position chosen correctly and hope one of the Twins is a top choice.  Maybe even a starter.  My point was the players we consider "All Stars" aren't even there.  Even a popularity contest should bring them at least in the top 10.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Gray does have a lower ERA (2.25 to Eovaldi’s 2.49), lower FIP (2.42 to Eovaldi’s 2.61) and a higher BABIP (.318 to Eovaldi’s .281) so I assume BR values those numbers more in their calculation than Fangraphs does in theirs.

That is why WAR isn't the even a good stat for comparing Pitchers, In no real would of reality is Gray a better pitcher than Eovaldi this year. Same McClanahan and him and Gray have the same WAR. The actual results IMO matter, I don't really care about FIP and BABIP when comparing what has happened, they are both great for predicting what might happen.

Innings, WHIP, ERA pretty much tell you how good a pitcher has pitched. Give me a guy that pitches 7 or 8 innings and give up 12 base runners and 2 runs over a guy that goes 5 or 6 and give up a couple of hits and 1 run.  Not arguing with your just on my soapbox.

[LastOnePicked]

18 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

The Twins have only one player on the MLB AllStar leaders and that is Joey Gallo 9th of 10 on first base.  How can that be a play-off bound team.

I like that baseball is a team sport, and the sum can be greater than the parts. But, I also think you're right. There's no big dog on this team - no one to put the team on his back. If there is, he's sleeping. Or hurt. Or both.

[Mike Sixel]

On 6/12/2023 at 9:15 AM, chpettit19 said:

Lee is not at all ready for the majors. He's hitting .262 with a .765 OPS in AA. Calling him up to the bigs is not an option.

That whole post is bonkers. Put Lee in LF? Seriuosly?

[OvertheHill]

On 6/12/2023 at 11:38 AM, SwainZag said:

I really don't think we will truly now what kind of team this is until near the trade deadline.  The Twins open the 2nd half with 19 games in a row with teams currently under .500, and the 2nd half of the schedule is considerably easier than the 1st.  

Strength of schedule/quality of opponent isn't what I see as a big determinant for the rest of this year. Got swept by Tampa, but by and large it seems like they been playing up or down to competition. Horribly inconsistent (or consistently bad?) at the plate regardless of pitcher quality. I'm hanging my hat on a more stable lineup/batting order with veteran hitters regressing to their historical K rates, with some younger players (finally!) getting their chances to stick. 

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, cHawk said:

Gray does have a lower ERA (2.25 to Eovaldi’s 2.49), lower FIP (2.42 to Eovaldi’s 2.61) and a higher BABIP (.318 to Eovaldi’s .281) so I assume BR values those numbers more in their calculation than Fangraphs does in theirs.

For pitchers, fWAR uses FIP. bWAR uses RA/9.

Short story long: Fangraphs prefers "what SHOULD have happened." BRef prefers "what DID happen."

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

For pitchers, fWAR uses FIP. bWAR uses RA/9.

Short story long: Fangraphs prefers "what SHOULD have happened." BRef prefers "what DID happen."

I'll give you this, your dislike of war is at least made with an actual understanding of them.

[USAFChief]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll give you this, your dislike of war is at least made with an actual understanding of them.

I will also say fangraphs move to a statcast based range factor for UZR based defense measurements is a step in the right direction, but...

I don't trust defensive measurements at all, and UZR is particularly poorly thought out.

Not to mention, they overvalue defense, and "positional adjustments" are dumb.

[Otaknam]

We haven’t seen the ceiling on this team but have seen the bottom: sputtering offense while getting solid starting pitching. Hopefully the recent Correa surge will continue and the lineup will start producing. If so they could make things interesting. The BP needs another lefty, and Pagan needs to be released in favor of a young promising pitcher or more likely Maeda. 

[DanM]

The twins need to do 3 things to be successful:

1. Get rid of Pagan any way you can - he is a disaster

2. trade for Kepler

3. replace the hitting coach with anyone as he is not qualified in any respect 

[Sparky55]

A playoff win please! I think they need one or 2 bullpen pieces. Aroldis Chapman? This team has to hit better than the last 10 weeks. If they don’t why does Popkins still have a job?

[John Belinski]

I can just not understand why Wallner is not playing for the Twins?  He was on base 8 times in a row when they sent him down. He is not the best fielder, but how many balls get hit to right field every game?  When the Twins have several outfielders batting below .200 it should be a easy choice to bring Wallner up. Teams just cannot be a winning team with starting players batting below .200.

[Jeff K]

On 6/11/2023 at 10:51 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, they’ll win a terrible central. I think they DFA Pagan, bring up Maeda for a bullpen role, and DFA Kepler to bring up Wallner.

I don’t think they will make a deadline trade, but Correa turns it around, and the youth movement, Julien, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis lead the way

I agree 100% with your thoughts regarding the current moves.  I think it's time to let the younger players take the reigns.  I do think they have enough depth to make a trade to improve the relief pitching.  I hope Maeda can be an effective reliever if they move him there.  He does not have the same stuff he had when he was a successful reliever for the Dodgers.

[ICTwin25]

I have zero faith in this team winning anything with Rocco leading charge. I'm 90% confident Sonny Gray is going to demand a trade before the deadline 

[dxpavelka]

On 6/12/2023 at 10:11 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

To add to my above comment, I have seen enough of Larnach as well. I would bring up Lee and put either him or Lewis in left field, can it worse than Larnach, I highly doubt it. I was a big fan of the Larnach draft pick and a fan of him, but what has he done the last 3 years that screams he is a starter on a competitive team. He starts out good enough but gets worse as the season goes.  Trade him while he still has some value and if he figures it out with another team, great for him,

Rosario gone for almost three years and still no adequate LF replacement.

 

[SwainZag]

5 hours ago, ICTwin25 said:

I have zero faith in this team winning anything with Rocco leading charge. I'm 90% confident Sonny Gray is going to demand a trade before the deadline 

Weren't there posters who said this all off season?  Gray speaking out after being pulled early after 1 poor start doesn't mean he wants off the team.

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Rosario gone for almost three years and still no adequate LF replacement.

 

Rosario's line since leaving the Twins:   902 PA.  .242/.286/.407.  Good for 87 OPS+

Trevor Larnach in that same time period: .658 PA.  .222/.315/.376.  Good for 93 OPS+

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Rosario's line since leaving the Twins:   902 PA.  .242/.286/.407.  Good for 87 OPS+

Trevor Larnach in that same time period: .658 PA.  .222/.315/.376.  Good for 93 OPS+

Twins LFs:  Worst OPS in MLB.

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, ICTwin25 said:

I have zero faith in this team winning anything with Rocco leading charge. I'm 90% confident Sonny Gray is going to demand a trade before the deadline 

Just like he did last year?

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Rosario's line since leaving the Twins:   902 PA.  .242/.286/.407.  Good for 87 OPS+

Trevor Larnach in that same time period: .658 PA.  .222/.315/.376.  Good for 93 OPS+

At some point, you have to trust the young guys. And as mediocre as Larnach has been, he's been better and cheaper than Rosario....

[TopTwinsFan]

With the current MANAGER this team will not be able to make the postseason. Another way to look at it is he probably costs us 8-9 losses per season so we would need to have 89 win talent on the roster to get to 81-81. If the rest of the division is losers we could get to a first round where Baldelli would promptly be swept.

[Mike Sixel]

Nope. And I'll post what I did two weeks ago, the FO needs to go. They are unable to build a complete team, despite having a real budget. 

[USAFChief]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:56 AM, SwainZag said:

Rosario's line since leaving the Twins:   902 PA.  .242/.286/.407.  Good for 87 OPS+

Trevor Larnach in that same time period: .658 PA.  .222/.315/.376.  Good for 93 OPS+

I'm ok with the Twins letting Rosario go, but

How is a .693 OPS an 87 OPS+ 

While

A .691 OPS is a 93 OPS+

Over the same time period.

 

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm ok with the Twins letting Rosario go, but

How is a .693 OPS an 87 OPS+ 

While

A .691 OPS is a 93 OPS+

Over the same time period.

 

League and park adjustments. A .693 OPS in Colorado is different than a .693 OPS in Oakland.

[Peter]

Im huge hardcore diehard fan but no twins are going to fade down the stretch and finish in 4th place-can’t trust this team at all!!! You don’t lose 3 of 4 to Detroit as well going 3-7 on this homestand. Easiest schedule my ass!!! They need to make me eat crow before I can trust them again. If this keeps up the twins should do us a favor and just lose. I’d rather see the twins of old that lose all the time than this team. 

[cHawk]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm ok with the Twins letting Rosario go, but

How is a .693 OPS an 87 OPS+ 

While

A .691 OPS is a 93 OPS+

Over the same time period.

 

OPS tends to overvalue power hitters, as the OBP component ranges 0-1 and the SLG component 0-4. OPS+ is more balanced.

[Craig Arko]

So my general conclusion, regarding this season:

This team was built on the premise that upgrading the rotation was the key to success. But then they also assumed Buxton, Correa, Polanco, and Kepler would carry the team offensively.

First part, more or less successful. Second part, all four of those players have failed to meet even modest expectations. That’s actually pretty remarkable, that none of them has clicked.

But it does mean the ceiling for this team, this year, is winning the ALC. Barring a complete revival of those four players, it’ll be wait ‘til next year.

[Major League Ready]

54 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

So my general conclusion, regarding this season:

This team was built on the premise that upgrading the rotation was the key to success. But then they also assumed Buxton, Correa, Polanco, and Kepler would carry the team offensively.

First part, more or less successful. Second part, all four of those players have failed to meet even modest expectations. That’s actually pretty remarkable, that none of them has clicked.

But it does mean the ceiling for this team, this year, is winning the ALC. Barring a complete revival of those four players, it’ll be wait ‘til next year.

Buxton, Polanco and Kepler have been brutally bad the past 4 weeks.   Buxton has literally been the worst offensive player in the league over the past 4 weeks.  Kepler is the 3rd worst.

	OPS	wRC+
Matt Wallner	1.692	370
Edouard Julien	0.9	151
Donovan Solano	0.86	147
Willi Castro	0.829	132
Alex Kirilloff	0.709	107
Carlos Correa	0.742	105
Ryan Jeffers	0.715	103
Michael A. Taylor	0.737	99
Royce Lewis	0.709	97
Kyle Farmer	0.639	83
Trevor Larnach	0.644	81
Christian Vazquez	0.638	79
Joey Gallo	0.485	51
Kyle Garlick	0.445	23
Jorge Polanco	0.474	22
Max Kepler	0.381	1
Byron Buxton	0.175	-52