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Logic of not making a trade.


Trov
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I think we all agree the team is not the best, but has a good chance to make playoffs even as is.  Maybe they falter and either Cleveland or Chicago go on a run, but as built we have been in competition for playoff spot.  Now, many say, well who cares we will not win the playoffs as built and need 'x' to win.  Okay, lets assume that is true, the logic says we cannot win with current team, mainly because Yankees will beat us.  

So that brings up the question, if we make some trades, would we be in a position to beat the Yankees?  What would it cost to do that?  So to me the logic suggests we do not make any major trades, a pen pitcher or two may be worth it for low level prospects, but big splash trades will still put us behind the Yankees on paper.  So why blow up our farm system to increase our chances a tiny bit?  I mean even if we go out and get Montas and Castillo, best two available starting pitchers in trade market, to increase our chances a couple of percentage points? 

I am not saying we should try to improve the team, but if the reason we feel we need to make a move is because the Yankees are better, is there any deals out there that after we say, now we are better than Yankees?  I doubt it. So if you make the deal to try and get better than them, but you cannot, why make the deal?  I would much rather make smaller pen moves then big splashes. 

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I agree with this. The exception I would make is that we have a lot of people that play 2nd or 3rd some of them quite valuable. If we can deal a couple of these guys for bullpen help I would do it for sure. 

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I am an eternal optimist. If we get to the post season anything can happen. Hoping the Twins right the ship and get back on course. Can we get a Montas, Castillo or a Mahle? At this point I doubt it, but we could shake the bush and see what's ou there.

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2 hours ago, Trov said:

I think we all agree the team is not the best, but has a good chance to make playoffs even as is.  Maybe they falter and either Cleveland or Chicago go on a run, but as built we have been in competition for playoff spot.  Now, many say, well who cares we will not win the playoffs as built and need 'x' to win.  Okay, lets assume that is true, the logic says we cannot win with current team, mainly because Yankees will beat us.  

So that brings up the question, if we make some trades, would we be in a position to beat the Yankees?  What would it cost to do that?  So to me the logic suggests we do not make any major trades, a pen pitcher or two may be worth it for low level prospects, but big splash trades will still put us behind the Yankees on paper.  So why blow up our farm system to increase our chances a tiny bit?  I mean even if we go out and get Montas and Castillo, best two available starting pitchers in trade market, to increase our chances a couple of percentage points? 

I am not saying we should try to improve the team, but if the reason we feel we need to make a move is because the Yankees are better, is there any deals out there that after we say, now we are better than Yankees?  I doubt it. So if you make the deal to try and get better than them, but you cannot, why make the deal?  I would much rather make smaller pen moves then big splashes. 

Considering the way we hit the Yankees pitching, I'd like to see us add 2 strong bullpen arms. I don't see this kind of acquisition requiring our top talent, and would give us a shot come playoff time.

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Here's the reason. Correa. He's here now and producing at a high level. Next year it's probably a better than 75% chance he isn't here. Buxton is healthy(so far). All of your young bats seem to be producing. 

 

That said, I don't think taking a shotgun blast with all of our top prospects is prudent either, I would target one really, really solid bullpen arm, yep that may cost something decent. Then another bullpen arm that may be some sort of project, former starter, etc. 

I honestly don't think going after a starting pitcher of high caliber will be worth it unless it is the type of #1-2 ish guy that we can have control of for a few years. If they can identify and pull off that sort of trade, I would be for using some heavy prospects for. That said, I don't want to go hard after a rental starting pitcher that will cost a pile, not worth it IMO.

If they are going to trade for a rental type starter, trade for a guy that won't cost you much in prospect value, but that can eat some productive innings whether that be as a starter, or a long man to backup guys like Bundy or Archer. 

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I don't think the F.O. really believed there was a chance this year.  You would not have traded Rogers this year if you thought you were contending.  They knew Paddick had arm issues and were ok with him for 2 years after Tommy John.  I can't see the F.O. dealing the talent they spent 5 years collecting on taking a shot at it this year while throwing all of the prospects around the league for 2 starters and some relievers.  

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1 minute ago, baul0010 said:

I don't think the F.O. really believed there was a chance this year.  You would not have traded Rogers this year if you thought you were contending.  They knew Paddick had arm issues and were ok with him for 2 years after Tommy John.  I can't see the F.O. dealing the talent they spent 5 years collecting on taking a shot at it this year while throwing all of the prospects around the league for 2 starters and some relievers.  

I think we needed 1 more minor league season to get the starting pitching to where are young hitters are.  Hopefully Winder, Ober, Canterino, Balazovic, Sands, and Varland are ready to step up next year.

If Maeda comes back reasonably well and Ryan continues to progress.  We could have a young pretty formidable rotation moving forward.  

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1 minute ago, baul0010 said:

I don't think the F.O. really believed there was a chance this year.  You would not have traded Rogers this year if you thought you were contending.  They knew Paddick had arm issues and were ok with him for 2 years after Tommy John.  I can't see the F.O. dealing the talent they spent 5 years collecting on taking a shot at it this year while throwing all of the prospects around the league for 2 starters and some relievers.  

Then why grab Correa?

I think they knew they had a lot of young in the rotation and wanted someone else to bolster it. I also think they feel like they can build a bullpen out of thin air as they have tried to do it each and every year they have been here. Pressley too, remember?

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I basically don't think there's a starting pitcher out there who's going to move the needle enough to justify the cost in a trade. If four of Gray, Ryan, Smeltzer, Winder, Ober, and Archer are healthy and fresh for the playoffs, I'm comfortable making a run with them. We do have some redundancies to trade from, but I don't think we'll land one of the biggest names without sacrifices that offset what we gain by trading. Reinforce the bullpen and be done with it, unless a great deal presents itself.

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20 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I don't think the F.O. really believed there was a chance this year.

I agree, as far as winning it all or going all in.

17 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Then why grab Correa?

I believe it is because we then have a chance to make the playoffs and believing anything can happen after that, including our young starters blossoming early.

2nd reason - to increase attendance.

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There will almost always be a better team.... that's no reason to give up and not get better.  What makes anyone think the Yankees will be worse next year? Should the Twins not try to be better next year? Odds are they will be much worse at shortstop next year, Just punt that too?

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30 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I don't think the F.O. really believed there was a chance this year.  You would not have traded Rogers this year if you thought you were contending.  They knew Paddick had arm issues and were ok with him for 2 years after Tommy John.  I can't see the F.O. dealing the talent they spent 5 years collecting on taking a shot at it this year while throwing all of the prospects around the league for 2 starters and some relievers.  

They didn't they could compete? and they traded a top prospect and former first round pick, and signed a SS to a 35 million dollar a year contract. I find it hard to believe they didn't believe they had a chance.  I believe they traded Rogers because they weren't planning on signing him and though Pagen would be a decent replacement and got Paddack.

Nobody thinks they should trade away the farm for a whole new pitching staff, well if they do they are wrong. But trading for relief pitchers don't cost the farm, unless it is somebody like Bedard with all the controllable years. They need to trade for a relief pitcher that fits at the end of the pen with Duran and pushes Pagan and Duffy down, and they need to trade for a relief pitcher that can pitch a couple of innings, similar to Jax. Then hope Alcara comes back and also fit in as a late inning guy.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I think we needed 1 more minor league season to get the starting pitching to where are young hitters are.  Hopefully Winder, Ober, Canterino, Balazovic, Sands, and Varland are ready to step up next year.

If Maeda comes back reasonably well and Ryan continues to progress.  We could have a young pretty formidable rotation moving forward.  

Just one more year, unless of course the pitchers are injured again or not good enough, then just two or three more years?

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My overall principle is always be looking to improve (because your talent pool will inevitably degrade as you go).  My second is to exploit a contending situation when you have one, because there aren't guarantees for next year.  Third is that the farm is your lifeblood but sometimes you have duplication of talent that will be frittered away if you just play the waiting game.  So my take is that the time is now for the FO to take their best guess how second base is going to shake out in the coming couple of seasons, and trade from the pool of players they don't see as key.  Get some elite bullpen help, and don't look back if, say, Spencer Steer (or whoever) turns out to be the one they should have kept.

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2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Then why grab Correa?

I think they knew they had a lot of young in the rotation and wanted someone else to bolster it. I also think they feel like they can build a bullpen out of thin air as they have tried to do it each and every year they have been here. Pressley too, remember?

That's the 35 Mil dollar question.  Why?  Look at our team.  We have no starting pitching and a patched together bullpen.  And a farm system with pitching about a year away.  

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Just one more year, unless of course the pitchers are injured again or not good enough, then just two or three more years?

Sadly, I think that is what we will all be whining about in 3 years.  I think the F.O. did a good job building up the minors pitching depth.  Even if we have some injuries, we should be able to pull up talent and compete.

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20 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

That's the 35 Mil dollar question.  Why?  Look at our team.  We have no starting pitching and a patched together bullpen.  And a farm system with pitching about a year away.  

No starting pitching? 3.20, 3.14, 2.86, 2.17, 3.06, 4.71, 4.03 that is the ERA of the Twins starting pitchers.

If you mean no starters that pitch more innings, then sadly you/we are going to be disappointed by all the Twins starters, the teams philosophy is the reason the innings pitched is less than we like, not the lack of talent of the pitchers.

If people think the next group (Winder, Ober, Canterino, Balazovic, Sands, and Varland ) is going to pitch longer in games, you are crazy. Or even if they trade for a Montas type that they will come in and throw 7/8 innings and 100 pitches a game, it isn't happening.

 

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3 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Then why grab Correa?

I think they knew they had a lot of young in the rotation and wanted someone else to bolster it. I also think they feel like they can build a bullpen out of thin air as they have tried to do it each and every year they have been here. Pressley too, remember?

I think the Twins liked the idea of Correa, but the team wasn't going to go into this season with a 80M payroll; they knew they'd get eaten alive. They wanted to play the young guys but they also wanted to make a splash because they didn't have nearly as many holes as they did most years. I too think their current record likely surprised them.

Still, I think you CAN build a bullpen out of thin air. It's rare a team signs or trades for an Aroldis Chapman and he actually turns out to be lights out for the foreseeable future. I think most good bullpens are built out of thin air. A few good internal options, a cast off or two from other clubs who transform their game and maybe if you're slick, you convert some other team's failed starter to a bullpen ace.

But so far, they haven't been nearly as good at this as they probably thought they'd be. 

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There's no amount of moves the Twins can make that'll have them favored in a matchup with NY, none, but that isn't the point. Solidifying holes gives them a better chance in the postseason, and that's what the focus should be. 

Doing nothing at the deadline with the current pen is a borderline fireable offense. This division is the Twins' to lose.

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

 I think most good bullpens are built out of thin air. 

I don't understand this thought process.

Can you build a good infield out of thin air? Starting staff? Defense?

Why do people think bullpens operate differently than every other part of a baseball team?

Talent and depth make a good pen. Just like anything else. Guys that reliably throw strikes and get outs. 

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It all depends on the package. And other teams can make better packages if their lineups and pitching staffs are missing, say, just one piece.

The Twins best bet is to hope Maeda and Ober still come back. That ALcala gets healthy. And if they can trade for a closer on a losing team, and another bullpen arm...and can basically use names like Balazovic or even Sands, perhaps Wander Javier and a couple of other depth pieces to get this need. Especially if theya re taking on a contract. 

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the Twins liked the idea of Correa, but the team wasn't going to go into this season with a 80M payroll; they knew they'd get eaten alive. They wanted to play the young guys but they also wanted to make a splash because they didn't have nearly as many holes as they did most years. I too think their current record likely surprised them.

Still, I think you CAN build a bullpen out of thin air. It's rare a team signs or trades for an Aroldis Chapman and he actually turns out to be lights out for the foreseeable future. I think most good bullpens are built out of thin air. A few good internal options, a cast off or two from other clubs who transform their game and maybe if you're slick, you convert some other team's failed starter to a bullpen ace.

But so far, they haven't been nearly as good at this as they probably thought they'd be. 

The Yankees are a prime example of a bullpen built out of thin air:

Clay Holmes - Acquired at 2021 trade deadline for Diego Castillo. 5.57 ERA during Pirates tenure, 0.97 ERA in Yankees uniform.

Michael King - acquired in a nondescript trade for Garrett Cooper in November 2017. 12th round pick in 2016. 

Wandy Peralta - Acquired in April 2021 for Mike Taushman. Career low 2.65 ERA in Yankees uniform. 

Miguel Castro - Acquired in nondescript trade for Joely Rodriguez before 2022 season began. 

Lucas Luetge- Did not make an MLB appearance in 6 years before joining Yankees. 

Clarke Schmidt- Failed starter 1st round pick in 2017. 

Ron Marinaccio- 19th round pick in 2017 draft. 

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2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Still, I think you CAN build a bullpen out of thin air. It's rare a team signs or trades for an Aroldis Chapman and he actually turns out to be lights out for the foreseeable future. I think most good bullpens are built out of thin air. A few good internal options, a cast off or two from other clubs who transform their game and maybe if you're slick, you convert some other team's failed starter to a bullpen ace.

But so far, they haven't been nearly as good at this as they probably thought they'd be. 

I kind of agree, but when you have traded 2 of your very best, I think it is bordering on that air being a little too thin. I like the guys they got for Pressley, they both are major league caliber type players. The other trade with Rogers seems to not have worked, but I do understand with both they probably weren't going to re-sign them. 

Maybe it's bad luck, but I think if they and their manager and going to go with a pitching philosophy that intends on using lots of arms and only getting 5-6 out of their starters, then I think building their bullpen should be more of a focus rather than a throw darts kind of operation.

That said, if they didn't think they were going to compete both this year and the year after they traded Pressly, then I can see where they are coming from as well. 

Either way, man it has been hard to watch lately!!

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3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

No starting pitching? 3.20, 3.14, 2.86, 2.17, 3.06, 4.71, 4.03 that is the ERA of the Twins starting pitchers.

If you mean no starters that pitch more innings, then sadly you/we are going to be disappointed by all the Twins starters, the teams philosophy is the reason the innings pitched is less than we like, not the lack of talent of the pitchers.

If people think the next group (Winder, Ober, Canterino, Balazovic, Sands, and Varland ) is going to pitch longer in games, you are crazy. Or even if they trade for a Montas type that they will come in and throw 7/8 innings and 100 pitches a game, it isn't happening.

 

You can throw out our amazing numbers and good ERA. The fact is, a starting rotation with Smeltzer, Archer, and Bundy will NOT get it done in the post season.  There really isn't any debating that. 

 Starters going 5 is not a problem.  If that is the organizational philosophy then you need a bullpen that will support that.  We don't have that.  Like I said earlier, we are a year away with our minor league pitching depth.   I think we will add a few prospects to the rotation and probably/hopefully add a couple too the bullpen that can go to 2 or 3 innings.  That seems to be what we are missing.  

This roster as constructed may claw their way into them playoffs... But we'll probably be adding to our 18 losses in a row.

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I really disagree with the "this isn't a great team". The rotation and hitting did what they needed to to go 8-0 vs Cleveland.

The bullpen, the cheapest thing to build was the only factor in all 5 losses. Falvey and Levine have consistently ignored the bullpen since arriving here. 

I would have faith in any other GM to fix this, but I don't have faith in them.

It seems more and more that they didn't anticipate actually winning this year and were banking on getting a huge prospect haul from Correa at midseason.

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24 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

I really disagree with the "this isn't a great team". The rotation and hitting did what they needed to to go 8-0 vs Cleveland.

The bullpen, the cheapest thing to build was the only factor in all 5 losses. Falvey and Levine have consistently ignored the bullpen since arriving here. 

I would have faith in any other GM to fix this, but I don't have faith in them.

It seems more and more that they didn't anticipate actually winning this year and were banking on getting a huge prospect haul from Correa at midseason.

Interesting idea, but doesn't Correa have some sort of no-trade clause in his contract? I don't know, that's why I'm asking. If he doesn't, then you may be onto something with that mid-season trade idea.

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4 hours ago, baul0010 said:

That's the 35 Mil dollar question.  Why?  Look at our team.  We have no starting pitching and a patched together bullpen.  And a farm system with pitching about a year away.  

No starting pitching? Wow, you might want to look at the stats across the league....

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1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Interesting idea, but doesn't Correa have some sort of no-trade clause in his contract? I don't know, that's why I'm asking. If he doesn't, then you may be onto something with that mid-season trade idea.

I think he has a limited trade clause, and can only be traded to certain teams ... don't know which ones. However, we are NOT going to get a haul of prospects for him. No one will be able to pay it, for one. The only teams possibly interested would be contending teams. Of known contending teams, which ones need a SS? And of those, which ones can take on that salary? We aren't going to get a haul with that much salary involved. And until we are out of it, we are still in it. Whether or not we have hope to go deep into the playoffs, I think we still make the playoffs ... so I won't trade Correa unless/until we are deeply out of it, and then, don't expect a lot in return. Remember the lessons of the Santana trade.

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7 hours ago, baul0010 said:

  We have no starting pitching and a patched together bullpen. 

Hul-lo? Ranking 7th in ERA for this team ain't exactly chopped liver. And With Maida out, nobody was expecting much, even in picking up Sonny Gray.

 

 

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