It’s time for the front office to step up and ink some deals

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, NapoleonComplex said:

Hayes interview with Jim Pohlad for The Athletic didn't give much of anything, as expected. However, maybe I'm reading too much into this, when questioned about current leadership, Jim didn't mention Falvey or Levine by name in his response, even though the question asked about the two and Rocco specifically. 

Mods - I hope a cropped screenshot from a paid subscription piece is okay. If not, please delete 

 

 

Every manager since the Pohlads owned the team has won manager of the year.  He says it's a rare thing?  K.  Does he not know the history of the Twins in the Pohlad era?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

In my book termination is on the table, but not because of any individual moves. We were promised sustainable contenders, what we seem to have on the horizon is sustainable 75-game winners as a high end. Which is better than perennial 100-game losers, and requires a certain level of competence given stiff competition throughout MLB. But if we're facing a new five year plan, I'd find someone new to give the five years to.

If I were deciding, how the roster and farm looks after they decide about Buxton and Berrios would shape my decision.

I'm with you up until that last sentence. My fear is that a return for Buxton or Berrios buys this FO another 3-5 years. If either is gone (particularly Berrios) what little chance they have of competing in a bad division disappears. I don't think the reward for being bad/terrible in years 5 & 6 should be patience regarding prospects. It'd be different if Falvey + Levine had sustained success in other areas, maybe some patience would be warranted, but I don't think we're in this current situation if that were the case. 

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm with you up until that last sentence.

Yeah, but re-read my next-to-last sentence.  We're closer in agreement than you think.

[Azviking101]

What's crazy to me is that if healthy the Twins would never be able to afford Buxton, but injured they offered max of 80 million over 7 years. I bet there's 25 other teams in MLB that would immediately offer that. Nobody can know if he'll ever stay healthy enough, but I think it's a guarantee right now that if he is he's an MVP candidate.

The fact that the Twins would be ok with this and offer less money than most competitors would is just mind blowing to me. We can't be sure of anything until a move is made or not made, but it sure seems that 80 Million was their max which is so very sad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yeah, but re-read my next-to-last sentence.  We're closer in agreement than you think.

Yeah… BA released their mid season list and it included all of two Twins prospects.

The shine of this front office is wearing off in a hurry. We were promised pitching and I don’t see any coming soon. I gave them the benefit of the doubt coming out of the pandemic but we’re past the mid season mark. We should see prospects emerging and we’re really not, at least not in the numbers they need to succeed as an organization. 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

What's crazy to me is that if healthy the Twins would never be able to afford Buxton, but injured they offered max of 80 million over 7 years. I bet there's 25 other teams in MLB that would immediately offer that. Nobody can know if he'll ever stay healthy enough, but I think it's a guarantee right now that if he is he's an MVP candidate.

The fact that the Twins would be ok with this and offer less money than most competitors would is just mind blowing to me. We can't be sure of anything until a move is made or not made, but it sure seems that 80 Million was their max which is so very sad.

The Twins could totally afford a healthy Buxton. They could do 6 / $180MM, and if Buxton was healthy, he'd get it.

Shortly after extending Morneau, Nathan and Cuddyer, you may recall they did 8 / $184MM over a decade ago.

[Azviking101]

I honestly don't think Buxton wants to sign an extension right now unless healthy. He just put up 2.7 WAR in 27 games. He's getting close to returning and wants to show he's healthy and can absolutely dominate longer than 27 games. If he can, his price goes up a ton. 

Are the twins content waiting for that? Buxton's value is up for his career right now, but is it crazy high as some people are saying? No I don't think so. I think it can be a lot higher by the end of the year. His hip injury is now 100% gone instead of the 90% it was when he came back and he's just waiting for his hand to heal from a freak HBP. 

I truly don't think he wants an extension right now. He's betting on himself the rest of the season. The Twins should hold and allow him to bet on himself here, but we'll see. It seems they want a cheap extension or a massive trade haul (neither of which are likely to happen)

[bighat]

Buxton should get a big contract from someone. And he absolutely will. There's no question another team will happily pay his asking price without batting an eye.

The Twins have been burned by his injuries so they feel they're entitled to a break. Now they're welcome to feel that way - but when someone else will pay full price, I hope they don't say "we tried our best" because they most certainly did not.

Buxton's injuries have been somewhat flukish - he's honestly had really bad luck. His injuries can happen to anyone. For example, Buck has been out for this past month with a fracture after getting hit by a pitch (see: Seager, Cory). Same thing goes for pulling or tearing a muscle running out a grounder (see: Robert, Luis). Shoulder injury after hitting the wall (see: Jimenez, Eloy). The fact that these things have all happened to Bux over the past couple years points to terrible luck and a guy probably going 110% when he should have slowed down a bit.

Bux loves the game. He's Gritty. Gutty. Firey. A monster on defense and clearly an offensive juggernaut at this point in his career. He's an elite athlete who the Twins are trying to get on the cheap. His agent knows what he's worth. So do fans, and so does every other team in MLB.

The Twins handling of the Buxton extension is at best embarrassing and at worst downright offensive.

[Dman]

I think if you don't get an extension worked out in the first two to three years it generally doesn't happen.  They were way to slow on Berrios and Buxton.  If the Twins would have done what the Yankees did with Severino they wouldn't be in this mess with Berrios but they did not have the resolve.  On Buxton it is tough to blame the FO IMO.  He never had a healthy year where he performed at an élite level.  How do you come up with what a player is worth when they never play a full season?  The whole industry doesn't seem to know what Byron Buxton is worth.  If the FO didn't give a chance via escalators to earn 20 Mil per year or more if he played well then they don't deserve to have him.  If this is about guaranteed money I can see the many reasons they would hesitate.  I just don't know enough to know right now.

Do I think they should be fired for failing to extend these two players my answer was NO.  If the FO got duped into a long term contract with Buxton and he got hurt and rarely played that money would always be in the way of spending on someone else and this team cannot afford to have 20M tied up in a unproductive player.  Tampa and Oakland get along just fine not signing guys long term and getting what they can in trade so I do not think Falvine not signing these players is a fire-able offense at least depending on the return.  If they make good baseball decisions I am with them even it takes a while to get there.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yeah, but re-read my next-to-last sentence.  We're closer in agreement than you think.

Gotcha, I took that last sentence to mean a prospect haul might be able to sway your opinion. 

[Mike Sixel]

They took an awful team and won two division championships pretty quickly, now we want to fire them because this year sucks. I really don't see how that is a good idea at all. Now, if next year they don't have pitchers coming up and being good, then we should talk.

Also, I don't like their drafts much at all........but I guess we'll see in the next couple years who is right.

[Tibs]

I voted yes, but I'm not sold on that. I'm not sure being unable to sign either is an offense that itself should lead to termination.

Not extending either Buxton or Berrios would suck to put it simply.

[Five minute major]

Why do we need to sign Buxton?!  We hAvE jAkE cAvE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Did you see LWJ stat line yesterday BTW)

I have zero confidence with either the FO or coaching of this team.  Clueless all around.  

[nicksaviking]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They took an awful team and won two division championships pretty quickly, now we want to fire them because this year sucks. I really don't see how that is a good idea at all. Now, if next year they don't have pitchers coming up and being good, then we should talk.

Also, I don't like their drafts much at all........but I guess we'll see in the next couple years who is right.

I guess my big concern was that they were brought in to fix the pitching staff. They did, for a short while but it was clearly a band-aid approach while they waited for prospects to emerge. 

But several questions arise from that plan:

1. Why are the Twins top prospects all getting injured at such a high rate? That needs to be answered.

2. Why are the pitchers, both bullpen and relief, unable to both miss bats and reign in their command? In most cases, both are an issue. The Twins have more issues with this than other teams, why?

3. Why do so many of the free agents brought in have trouble missing bats? Why are Schoemaker, Happ and Hill striking out fewer batters than their prior stops? 

One other thing I don't like is that Falvey and Lavine are tied together in the minds of Twins fans. These are two different men with two different job responsibilities. I don't want to get rid of both of them of one is good at his job but the other is not, and I don't want to keep both if one is actually bad at his job. I mean the fact that their responsibilities are so vague is obviously the Twins fault; you'd think we'd have a better description of the delineation of their jobs, but we don't.

[Dman]

After Buxton's latest comments I really want them to get a deal done.  He sure says all the right things from a fans perspective.  I have loved watching him from A ball to the Majors so hopefully both sides can figure out a number that protects Byron and protects the Twins.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins could totally afford a healthy Buxton. They could do 6 / $180MM, and if Buxton was healthy, he'd get it.

Shortly after extending Morneau, Nathan and Cuddyer, you may recall they did 8 / $184MM over a decade ago.

Ho many playoff wins did we get while those 4 contracts were active?

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I guess my big concern was that they were brought in to fix the pitching staff. They did, for a short while but it was clearly a band-aid approach while they waited for prospects to emerge. 

But several questions arise from that plan:

1. Why are the Twins top prospects all getting injured at such a high rate? That needs to be answered.

2. Why are the pitchers, both bullpen and relief, unable to both miss bats and reign in their command? In most cases, both are an issue. The Twins have more issues with this than other teams, why?

3. Why do so many of the free agents brought in have trouble missing bats? Why are Schoemaker, Happ and Hill striking out fewer batters than their prior stops? 

One other thing I don't like is that Falvey and Lavine are tied together in the minds of Twins fans. These are two different men with two different job responsibilities. I don't want to get rid of both of them of one is good at his job but the other is not, and I don't want to keep both if one is actually bad at his job. I mean the fact that their responsibilities is so vague is obviously the Twins fault; you'd think we'd have a better description of the delineation of their jobs, but we don't.

The only one I'm not liking is point 1....which is why I say if they don't start having good pitchers next year (that they developed or dealt for that are young and controllable), then I'll start to judge them negatively. I warned the band aid approach couldn't work year after year......

[Dman]

14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I guess my big concern was that they were brought in to fix the pitching staff. They did, for a short while but it was clearly a band-aid approach while they waited for prospects to emerge. 

But several questions arise from that plan:

1. Why are the Twins top prospects all getting injured at such a high rate? That needs to be answered.

2. Why are the pitchers, both bullpen and relief, unable to both miss bats and reign in their command? In most cases, both are an issue. The Twins have more issues with this than other teams, why?

3. Why do so many of the free agents brought in have trouble missing bats? Why are Schoemaker, Happ and Hill striking out fewer batters than their prior stops? 

One other thing I don't like is that Falvey and Lavine are tied together in the minds of Twins fans. These are two different men with two different job responsibilities. I don't want to get rid of both of them of one is good at his job but the other is not, and I don't want to keep both if one is actually bad at his job. I mean the fact that their responsibilities are so vague is obviously the Twins fault; you'd think we'd have a better description of the delineation of their jobs, but we don't.

Those are all great questions and ones I have been wondering about as well.  They are getting more velocity out of guys but also seem to be having more arm issues.  Fixing command has not been a forte of the system and it seems the more they stress velocity the more command issues guys seem to have.  This is what makes me wonder if the reason Tampa took Faucher is they think they can fix those issues as they may be system created.  

Hard for me to know what to think as there has been good and bad but I thought trackman and all the things they were doing was supposed to take stress off of the pitchers arms and it doesn't seem to be working out that way.  Certainly not this year.

[Major League Ready]

52 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I guess my big concern was that they were brought in to fix the pitching staff. They did, for a short while but it was clearly a band-aid approach while they waited for prospects to emerge. 

But several questions arise from that plan:

1. Why are the Twins top prospects all getting injured at such a high rate? That needs to be answered.

2. Why are the pitchers, both bullpen and relief, unable to both miss bats and reign in their command? In most cases, both are an issue. The Twins have more issues with this than other teams, why?

3. Why do so many of the free agents brought in have trouble missing bats? Why are Schoemaker, Happ and Hill striking out fewer batters than their prior stops? 

One other thing I don't like is that Falvey and Lavine are tied together in the minds of Twins fans. These are two different men with two different job responsibilities. I don't want to get rid of both of them of one is good at his job but the other is not, and I don't want to keep both if one is actually bad at his job. I mean the fact that their responsibilities are so vague is obviously the Twins fault; you'd think we'd have a better description of the delineation of their jobs, but we don't.

#1 has been discussed in the context of the league on a couple of the MLB radio shows.  They gave the numbers and injuries are up an astronomical / unexplainable amount.  It's not a Twins problem.  Why are some guys performing poorly?  IDK but I doubt  our coaching staff messed up two veterans like Shoemaker and Happ.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I'm coming at this differently than most of you.  I would prefer we sign Jose Berrios.  He's durable, reliable, consistent, our pitching is an organizational weak point, and I love the kid's approach.  That said....I don't believe we could offer anything to Berrios that would have him ink a contract.  I really don't.  I think he wants to field the market.  When he does, I think it'll take 7/140 or 5/125 to be in the conversation, but I don't believe he wants an extension.  And good on him, he earned the right to choose where he plays from the best offers available.

Buxton?  It really depends on the incentives, but I'm ok with something around 7/100 with some significant protections for the team against injury in exchange for incentives for Buck if he's healthy.  I think that deal is far riskier and likely to implode on the team.  It's also the one that appears doable.  So I'd like them to try and bridge that gap and hope the guy can be healthy, but fire them for walking away from a guy who has played 30-40% of his possible games?  How on earth is that fair either?

If you're firing them, fire them for the failure to build the farm.

[RonCoomersOPS]

No, they shouldn't be fired if either player isn't resigned and the question is so stupid it actually hurts.

Firing the FO because one or both refuse to sign is like firing your boss because you decide not to go to work anymore.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

No, they shouldn't be fired if either player isn't resigned and the question is so stupid it actually hurts.

Firing the FO because one or both refuse to sign is like firing your boss because you decide not to go to work anymore.

Yes, because MLB is just like the office job I used to have.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

No, they shouldn't be fired if either player isn't resigned and the question is so stupid it actually hurts.

Firing the FO because one or both refuse to sign is like firing your boss because you decide not to go to work anymore.

But it doesn't sound like either is refusing to sign. Sounds like Buxton is more than willing if the Twins offer what he's looking for, and sounds like Berrios is open to it if the Twins are willing to pay him like a non-arbitration free agent.

It doesn't mean signing them is the right move, but don't make it sound like it's not an option. The front office has a choice here, and considering that both the near term and long term success of the franchise may be at stake, making the wrong call sure should come with consequences.

[Rosterman]

Priority is always your own FREE AGENTS. Step one is always the length of a contract. You can easily sign a 5-year deal with an opt out (for the player) in Year Three. Heck you can do anything, really.

 

7 years and $80 million is the Twins hoping to get three GREAT years from Buxton at the least. So, why not make a solid three year contract offer, with an option for a fourth. Buxton will still be ably to do a big contract.

 

Berrios is dreaming. He IS worth more than 5/$85, but not worth 5/$125. Wait, maybe he is. Has he given enough to the Twins in his career so far? Is there a better pitcher in the marketplace that the Twins would give either $85 or $125 million to, that would be willing to come to Minnesota?

 

Front offices do look beyond the stats, but the dismal offense Berrios is getting is highlighting his one bad ending most outings. He also still ahs to show he can be strong for an entire year. It is all in his court.

 

Sadly, contract talks like this don't bode well for the future. A Kirilloff who missed out on active roster days and will now be facing an extra year of arbitration. The Twins continuing to hold players back, getting them service time when they are 25 or older, rather than pushing out a youngster.

 

I see a few names coming up to St. Paul, but I don't see the Twins adding them to the main roster this year, and maybe not even the 40-man in the off-season. Why should they. Sacrifice service time? It is all about the dollars and nonsense in this game. 

 

Target Field was built so the Twins could put a competitive team on the field. Keep not only players long term, but also keep their players from walking for free agency.

 

Step one is to make it so people DO want to play here, not just the guys you claim on minor waivers looking for a second chance, or the backend guy who gets a blow-away offer from the Twins. Sure, the Twins signed Donaldson. And he is/was worth it. But it was purely smoke-and-mirrors showing that they COULD do it. But, again, that year when he was signed was still "smoke and mirrors" of "We made such-and-such an offer, but it just missed being enough for the Big Guys!

[DocBauer]

I didn't vote not because I felt cowardly, but because I just don't know. I guess I should have voted "unsure". While we haven't seen all the fruits of their labor to this point, and I could argue some moves I didn't like, I think I'm smart enough to look beyond immediate returns to see positive changes taking place. And I'm not just talking about a pair of ALC banners. 

When I see positive draft results that offer optimism, an accumulation of arms that could pay off relatively soon, a change in coaching philosophy that has been echoed by past Twins players as a positive change for the future, and a group of quality coaches and instructors who have been poached by other teams, I feel this FO has proven they have a good eye for talent, players and personnel. 

And yes, I give a mulligan for 2020 in many ways but not in every way.

The reality is tomorrow will not bring a $200M payroll. And I'm not going to blame the FO or ownership to match the Yankees, Dogers, etc. So I'm not going to ask for a change at the FO for many reasons.

Let's be honest about Buxton. He's a $30M player with 140 games played. Hell,  he's worth that with 120 games. But you just can't dismiss history. Buck and his reps know this, but they also know his history and his risk.

Despite initial rejection of the first offers I have not heard talks are broken off.

What I would do:

1] Buxton: 7yrs, $15M per. Escalators or incentives, $5M at 100 games, another $5M at 140 games. Give him an opt out after 4yrs to bet on himself at that point if he wants to. Fair, and both sides are betting on themselves. 

2] Make no mistake, Santana was developed by the Twins. So was Radke. Berrios is the first legitimate top of the rotation SP developed since then.  Let me be very clear that I am, have been, a fan and believer in Berrrios. I still believe that "stuff" combined with experience will allow him to raise his game at 28yo to find another level. I am NOT saying that next level will be the mythical ACE level everyone yearns for and is so hard to find. But I have to laugh at those who state he is a #3 SP. PLEASE! 

The guy is QUALITY. Someone will pay real money for him if he hits the market. And maybe the FO should have tried harder 2yrs ago. IDK.  But as much as I love Berrios, and believe in him, I'm still not sure I'd do $25M per. That's a lot of payroll for a very good SP who still has a few questions.

I'd JUMP at 5yrs and $100M with GS incentives bumping him up to a potential $25M per.

Both of these, to me, make so much sense on either side.

If not, the Twins would be between a rock and a hard place.

[RonCoomersOPS]

44 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yes, because MLB is just like the office job I used to have.

It is exactly the same, in that leadership needs to make rational decisions about the resources at its disposal and the value of its assets.

I'm not saying that the FO shouldn't make every reasonable effort to re-sign the two players. They totally should. But just like the management at your office job, they shouldn't throw all the money at one or two projects and let the rest of the organization die on the vine.

[RonCoomersOPS]

Buxton's latest comments make me think they're not so far away from striking a deal with him. No way does he take this tone if the Twins are massively low-balling him.

As for Berrios...well, I don't think he has any intention of re-signing. The FO needs to do the rational thing and deal him, I think.

[darin617]

You can't force anyone to stay where they don't want to be.

 

I can say I have not been impressed with the FO & the scouts for quite some time. Not sure how Tampa & Oakland always seem to be able to develop talent. They also both seem to know the right time to move them in trades to keep the cycle going.

 

Signing Buxton to a long term deal without incentives or some sort of escalators is foolish. Great talent but can never stay healthy.

 

Deal Berrios and reap the rewards for selling high on him now. They may be able to get ace value for him in a deal and he is basically a #2.5 starters on a good team.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

It is exactly the same, in that leadership needs to make rational decisions about the resources at its disposal and the value of its assets.

I'm not saying that the FO shouldn't make every reasonable effort to re-sign the two players. They totally should. But just like the management at your office job, they shouldn't throw all the money at one or two projects and let the rest of the organization die on the vine.

Actually my management was pretty good at identifying the "projects" that were putting money in their pockets and rewarding those participants very well.

[Dodecahedron]

I don't know where the 7 years keeps coming from.  That's an unusual length for a contract for the Twins, and I have my doubts that the Twins are looking to seriously offer Buxton $10M a year and not have him laugh in their faces.

This is probably the standard Twins 5-year deal with an easy opt-out clause in the 5th year for the Twins.  With Buxton's injury history, there could also be an opt-out for the 4th year.