Front Page: Could a Josh Bell Trade Become a Viable Josh Donaldson Alternative?

[Nate Palmer]

The hope still has to be the Minnesota Twins can sign Josh Donaldson. In the event that things go south there, the other Josh, Pirates first baseman Josh Bell could become a good target to acquire via trade.We are all still hoping that the Minnesota Twins reported four-year offer to Josh Donaldson wins out. In the event that the Twins once again strike out on a free agent the front office may look to turn to the trade market not only for pitching but offensive help as well.

 

The Pittsburgh Pirates could theoretically help the Twins with both pitching and offense. For this space, we will look at their slugging first baseman who may slot well into an already dangerous Twins lineup. That slugger is 2019 All-Star Josh Bell who could be available as new GM Ben Cherington looks to jump start a flailing franchise.

 

There are very few questions surrounding Bell’s bat. He is a switch hitter who hit .277/.367/.569 with a .936 OPS and 143 OPS+. In 2019 Bell found a new level to his hitting like many in 2019 and was able find that improvement as he increased his launch angle. Bell especially hit right-handers well slashing .297/.387/.615 and a 1.002 OPS.

 

There is potentially room to question if Bell can repeat that performance or if some injuries mid-season could have some long term effects on the first baseman. What has been a bigger question surrounding Bell his whole professional baseball career is whether or not he defensively can be a positive with his glove for an MLB team.

 

Traditional defensive metrics do not paint a great picture for Bell’s glove. In 2019 Bell had a -5 DRS, -7.5 UZR, and -16.4 UZR/150. While all of those numbers cause concern, especially when thinking of adding Bell to an already less than stellar infield defense, there is some good.

 

Plenty of people who work with or watch Bell comment on his improvement as a defender and willingness to lunge after throws. Among those seeing improvement is his former manager Clint Hurdle. Alongside the eye test, Bell also ranked fourth in 2019 among first baseman in FanGraphs scoop stat. Placing him just behind former Twins first baseman C.J. Cron and in front of Braves Freddie Freeman.

 

 

Especially with Jorge Polanco making throws from shortstop that scoop stat may be more important to the Twins infield defense than anything else. It also seems to make Bell more than just a bat for any team interested in trying to complete a trade for him.

 

We truly don’t know if Cherington is interested in trading his first baseman, but he does want to rebuild the Pirates organization at all levels. Bell is a great way to acquire a haul of players and with Derek Shelton now managing the Pirates he may have some players he would advocate for Cherington to bring to Pittsburgh.

 

Bell is not Donaldson. Bell’s defensive value is not anywhere near the same as Donaldson’s but their bats are comparable. Bell would be cheaper than Donaldson and his under team control until 2022 when he is set to become a free agent for the first time.

 

Donaldson is clearly and no question the better player. Bell could become a nice pivot for an infield bat if the Twins offer to Donaldson doesn’t stand up to the others. And who knows, maybe the Twins could make it into a “blockbuster” trade and get the Pirates to include Chris Archer or Keone Kela in a deal.

 

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[mikelink45]

Why would we trade players of value to sign a first baseman who ranks behind C J Cron?  Why didn't we just sign Cron and keep the players?  This kind of maneuver makes no sense to me.

[Nate Palmer]

 

Why would we trade players of value to sign a first baseman who ranks behind C J Cron?  Why didn't we just sign Cron and keep the players?  This kind of maneuver makes no sense to me.

That is one stat that Cron is just ahead of Bell on. And in the top-4 of the league at that. Check the offensive numbers and Bell was in 2019 clearly a better player than Cron. 

[TopGunn#22]

Bell is an interesting target and a switch-hitter in the middle of our lineup would be solid.     But his defensive short comings and his ability to only play 1B doesn't really help the Twins as much as you'd like.      I'd give up more to bring in Trevor Story.     Lock down a Gold Glove worthy SS with a big bat and make Story one of my cornerstones going forward.      Yes, it would cost more to get Story, but he helps the Twins so much more.     Colorado's top prospect is SS Brendon Rogers.     Another highly thought of prospect is Garrett Sampson, a 2B.     They could afford to give up Story.      They are NOT unseating the Dodgers this year or next.      What would it take to get this done ??  

[Doctor Gast]

I`m all in if it includes Chris Archer

[mk]

Instead of trading for Bell, give Rooker a chance at 1B and make a trade with the Pirates for Starling Marte to play LF and back up Buxton in center. Right now, what’s the plan for when Buxton has another extended stint on the IL? Kepler was OK but didn’t playing CF damage him so much he went on the IL late in the year too? Rosario can be shipped somewhere for a minor league prospect.

 

 

[adorduan]

 

That is one stat that Cron is just ahead of Bell on. And in the top-4 of the league at that. Check the offensive numbers and Bell was in 2019 clearly a better player than Cron. 

But Cron would have cost nothing but money.  Who are you going to trade to get Bell?

[Nate Palmer]

 

But Cron would have cost nothing but money.  Who are you going to trade to get Bell?

If you are worried about prospects and only spending money hope for them to go get Mitch Moreland.

 

Please don't take this as my preferred option or best case scenario. But if Donaldson doesn't agree to Minnesota and the Twins are looking for an impact bat Bell can be that. I have no idea what the Pirates are looking for because in researching this I have seen the whole spectrum of suggestions. I would think they want talent. I think the Twins would need to be prepared to be offering at least a top-10 in the org plus some. And more if someone wants Archer or Kela included and a whole lot more for Marte. Trades are always tricky to predict though... 

[tvagle]

I agreed with this line of thinking on December 6, 2019

and revised it a little bit on December 27, 2019

 

Included with both of those posts are trade scenarios for Bell and Marte and Archer

 

Would be predicated by signing JD

Then Flip Marte to CF needy teams for BP piece

 

 

 

 

 

[bobs]

 

Why would we trade players of value to sign a first baseman who ranks behind C J Cron?  Why didn't we just sign Cron and keep the players?  This kind of maneuver makes no sense to me

B/c in waiting on Donaldson, others are signing.  If JD goes to Atlanta, it's going to be a scramble for the FO.

[darin617]

I can't see Pittsburgh moving him already. This is his first year of arbitration so it's not going to be that expensive for them.

 

 

[Cooper Carlson]

Three years of control for an excellent first baseman would be great. I wonder what the price would be, but this is interesting for sure.

[SwainZag]

 

Three years of control for an excellent first baseman would be great. I wonder what the price would be, but this is interesting for sure.

 

An excellent hitting  first baseman.  He is subpar with the glove to put it lightly.  He's a stick and has 50 HR potential and would be a great addition to an already excellent lineup. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

If we were going to trade for a 1B over signing Moreland or Thames I'd rather get Trey Mancini from Baltimore.

[mikelink45]

Don't we have Raley, Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach?  One of them could play 1B

[Matthew Taylor]

Nice article, Nate. Very well written and great arguments (especially surrounding the defensive stuff). One thing that needs to be discussed about Josh Bell is just how different his season from June through the end of the season compared to his hot start:

 

Beginning of season through May 31 (242 PAs): .343/.405/.704 (1.109) -- 178 wRC+

June 1 through end of season (371 PAs): .232/.342/.476 (.818) -- 107 wRC+

 

 

[Linus]

Why trade for this guy? This makes no sense at all

[Nate Palmer]

 

Nice article, Nate. Very well written and great arguments (especially surrounding the defensive stuff). One thing that needs to be discussed about Josh Bell is just how different his season from June through the end of the season compared to his hot start:

 

Beginning of season through May 31 (242 PAs): .343/.405/.704 (1.109) -- 178 wRC+

June 1 through end of season (371 PAs): .232/.342/.476 (.818) -- 107 wRC+

Thanks!

 

I hinted at but probably wasn't clear in addressing the dip in production. There were some injuries in there that seemed to coincide with the dip. That is certainly a question mark going into 2020. Was the drop in production all injury related or something else. 

[DocBauer]

My answer is no to a trade, and not due to dislike. His addition, even with a good bat, is not the same as adding Donaldson.

 

Donaldson brings that big bat along with fine defense for at least a few more years. Adding a different quality bat but poor defense does not have the same affect as the slight re-shuffle of the infield corners.

 

I'd rather come up with the best short term 1B option I can with Rooker/Raley/Kirilloff in the wings and close.

[AceWrigley]

I'm repeating myself here because I mentioned it in another thread, but I think Dominic Smith of the Mets could be a possible trade acquisition. With Alonso entrenched at 1B, Smith is a bat without a position for them. I'm not a trade guru but does Fernando Romero and Nick Gordon get us there, or too much?

[Matthew Taylor]

 

Thanks!

 

I hinted at but probably wasn't clear in addressing the dip in production. There were some injuries in there that seemed to coincide with the dip. That is certainly a question mark going into 2020. Was the drop in production all injury related or something else. 

Yeah it's hard to say. He really didn't miss any games until they shut him down in the middle of September. Not to say he wasn't playing through an injury throughout the season, but who's to say.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm repeating myself here because I mentioned it in another thread, but I think Dominic Smith of the Mets could be a possible trade acquisition. With Alonso entrenched at 1B, Smith is a bat without a position for them. I'm not a trade guru but does Fernando Romero and Nick Gordon get us there, or too much?

 

I don't know that Smith is a better prospect than the guys they already have. Like, I have no idea. But if he is, I doubt Gordon and Romero can get him to MN.

[specialiststeve]

I do think Dominic Smith is a much better and realistic target for the Twins... really not sure of the cost. Smith has no place to go but is great insurance at this point for the Mets. Can't believe it would take a top prospect to get  him but who knows. Per Rotoworld the Met's have Smith on the block..

 

In the article they are trying to get rid of Lowrie and Smith. Lowrie's 10 mil contract and Smith as he is out of options and no direct place to play....Don't see where Lowrie would fit but Smith would be a good option if Donadson doesn't make it.

 

Heck they have 6 starters right now so see what a  Smith and Matz package costs!!

[Doctor Gast]

 

I`m all in if it includes Chris Archer

 

[Doctor Gast]

I`m curious what kind of players would Pittsburgh be interested in a trade. We have a lot of outfield, infield & even pitching   possibblities

[jmlease1]

I'm not all that interested in trading for a position player right now; I want Donaldson because he's an elite player who can fill a need while significantly raising bar and only costing money. I'd much rather spend assets on trading for pitching; there's several 1B options on the FA market if Donaldson can't be convinced to leave Atlanta that would replace Cron's production nicely.

 

Bell's a good hitter but prying a 27-year old relatively cheap asset out of Pittsburgh isn't going to be cheap. If he can sustain this level of offensive production while making marginal improvements on D, he's a borderline all-star. But is that the guy we want to dump a haul of prospect assets on? Especially if there's a concern that Sano isn't going to stick at 3B?

 

You're not getting Bell for Rooker & Romero and an A-ball guy. Pittsburgh might not demand Royce Lewis, but they're going to want a significant asset to headline the package, not a couple of guys that are in the 20-25 range in the system.

 

Archer is the more interesting guy over at Pittsburgh, IMHO.