Twins - Indians Series Possible Long Term Consequences

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins and Indians square off in Cleveland for a series that takes on more importance than many of us realize. 

 

I will not call it a must win series in terms of this year because it is not. The Twins have plenty of games to play this year against many different opponents and only really needs to worry about itself while completing the rest of the schedule. 

 

Short term (This year) this is just another series with plenty of them to be played. However... Long term... the series with Cleveland is almost "must win". 

 

As Twins Fans... we should all have extreme interest in the Indians becoming sellers at the deadline. From a 10,000 foot view this series has serious weight towards encouraging the Indians to become sellers. 

 

If the Indians sell at the deadline, this takes them out of the running for a couple of years. We are talking about Kluber, Bauer, maybe Lindor, maybe Ramirez traded for prospects, we are talking about a brand new build it from the ground up Indians club. 

 

If the Indians sell at the deadline, the Indians will join the Tigers and Royals as rebuilding teams while the Twins are clearly surging upward. This would leave the White Sox as the primary competition for the AL Central for what could be an extended window. 

 

We have 6 games with them before the trade deadline. Knocking the Indians senseless during those 6 games will help the Indians clarify the direction they need to take, producing even more gap between us and of course producing gap between the Indians and Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, White Sox, A's and Angels, the rest of the Wild Card chasers. 

 

The nightmare scenario (Nightmare is too strong a word) is that the Indians hang around the wild card chase, while closing the gap between us and them for the A.L. Central. (We don't care about the White Sox, they won't be selling significant pieces, they are coming out of a rebuild and not returning to a rebuild).  

 

If the Indians feel they have a chance this year, they might not sell... they may even buy. If they buy... they might not sell during the off-season either because the paradigm shifts, this could make them potential competition in the immediate future years without a significant rebuild. 

 

It's not a must win series for our playoff hopes and dreams this season but this is one of those moments where you can stick a dagger in the Indians playoff hopes and dreams for this year, The benefit of that is a much wider AL Central window that may last for a longer interval of time.

 

So Yeah... It's a must win series. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

honestly, losing 2 of 3 only means a 1 game change in the standings to their favor.... but they are reeling, so let's hope for broomsticks with a massive onslaught of Twins HRs.... 

 

I think a sweep gets you what you want... that would be a 14.5 game deficit by Thursday. That's a lot of games to make up. 

[MNT1996]

Eh I gotta disagree that it's a "must win series" for us. If we win the series we pick up at least a game on Cleveland and if we lose the series they pick up at most 3 games on us (we still would be 8.5 games ahead). Twins clearly are the better team and if we lose the series its not a big deal. For Cleveland on the other hand it is definitely a must win series. I almost think it would be better if Cleveland went through the year not being sellers and being in the hunt for a wildcard. This means that their rebuilding window would be pushed back further and give us a better shot at maintaining AL central dominance for years to come.

[John Kelsey]

Bieber-Carrasco-Bauer is a tough draw, I think they'll be fine if they just win one. 

[Thrylos]

The Indians are tied with the WSox, Angels, and A's, 2 games behind the Rangers for the second AL WC.  The Red Sox are 1 game behind.

 

That's a more interesting number for them that their distance from the Twins.   Unless a team is 5+ games behind by the deadline, I don't see why they should sell.

 

It will be great for the Twins to sweep all 6 games, but for the Indians more important is to beat lesser teams at this point.

[blindeke]

 

The Twins and Indians square off in Cleveland for a series that takes on more importance than many of us realize. 

 

I will not call it a must win series in terms of this year because it is not. The Twins have plenty of games to play this year against many different opponents and only really needs to worry about itself while completing the rest of the schedule. 

 

Short term (This year) this is just another series with plenty of them to be played. However... Long term... the series with Cleveland is almost "must win". 

 

As Twins Fans... we should all have extreme interest in the Indians becoming sellers at the deadline. From a 10,000 foot view this series has serious weight towards encouraging the Indians to become sellers. 

 

If the Indians sell at the deadline, this takes them out of the running for a couple of years. We are talking about Kluber, Bauer, maybe Lindor, maybe Ramirez traded for prospects, we are talking about a brand new build it from the ground up Indians club. 

 

If the Indians sell at the deadline, the Indians will join the Tigers and Royals as rebuilding teams while the Twins are clearly surging upward. This would leave the White Sox as the primary competition for the AL Central for what could be an extended window. 

 

We have 6 games with them before the trade deadline. Knocking the Indians senseless during those 6 games will help the Indians clarify the direction they need to take, producing even more gap between us and of course producing gap between the Indians and Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, White Sox, A's and Angels, the rest of the Wild Card chasers. 

 

The nightmare scenario (Nightmare is too strong a word) is that the Indians hang around the wild card chase, while closing the gap between us and them for the A.L. Central. (We don't care about the White Sox, they won't be selling significant pieces, they are coming out of a rebuild and not returning to a rebuild).  

 

If the Indians feel they have a chance this year, they might not sell... they may even buy. If they buy... they might not sell during the off-season either because the paradigm shifts, this could make them potential competition in the immediate future years without a significant rebuild. 

 

It's not a must win series for our playoff hopes and dreams this season but this is one of those moments where you can stick a dagger in the Indians playoff hopes and dreams for this year, The benefit of that is a much wider AL Central window that may last for a longer interval of time.

 

So Yeah... It's a must win series. 

 

Actually, the best case scenario is that Cleveland tries to "buy" and then loses anyway, like the Royals did a few years ago, leaving them with a losing team and also few prospects in the system.

 

[Blake]

I want to see the Twins drive a stake into the hopes and dreams of Cleveland.

[mini_tb]

Is it ok to stop panicking about the series opening loss to the Rays?

[bird]

It might be "just another series" for the Twins. The pressure's all on Cleveland for sure!

 

Losing even one of the games, for them, might feel like zero progress.

 

Let's sweep them ruthlessly.

[Blake]

 

Is it ok to stop panicking about the series opening loss to the Rays?

*checks TD style sheet*

 

Umm, no?

[Puckett34]

 

Is it ok to stop panicking about the series opening loss to the Rays?

We stopped panicking after losing 3 of 4 vs the Blue Jays at home? 

 

That was before playing Baltimore though.

[Mr. Brooks]

Actually, the best case scenario is that Cleveland tries to "buy" and then loses anyway, like the Royals did a few years ago, leaving them with a losing team and also few prospects in the system.

Correct. The other advantage to them not selling is that it keeps guys like Kluber from going to a team we might have to play in the postseason.

[twinssporto]

 

Is it ok to stop panicking about the series opening loss to the Rays?

No, that loss still haunts my dreams. 

[Nine of twelve]

This thread raises interesting points. At what point should Cleveland become sellers? Are they content to make a run at the second wild card spot this year? Do they decide not to bother and blow it up? It's a difficult spot for their GM and it will be interesting to see how he decides to deal with it.

[Riverbrian]

 

Actually, the best case scenario is that Cleveland tries to "buy" and then loses anyway, like the Royals did a few years ago, leaving them with a losing team and also few prospects in the system.

 

 

Correct. The other advantage to them not selling is that it keeps guys like Kluber from going to a team we might have to play in the postseason.

 

I get this logic but I also believe it's risky from the Twins perspective. 

 

1. Cleveland and Kansas City are not really comparable. Kansas City was looking at a mass free agent departure. They chose to take a final run and failed but they were competitive for that final season. 

 

2. Cleveland has the option to bring back Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Lindor, Ramirez, Hand, Salazar, Clevinger, Bieber for 2020. None of these guys are pending free agents. They could have health, they might find some complimentary pieces. This leaves the Indians as a team to contend with in 2020.

 

3. Cleveland doesn't have to hit that Kansas City Cliff after 2020 either. Only Bauer and Salazar are free agents after 2020. 

 

4. If they sell... they take themselves out of contention immediately while Minnesota is (Suppose to be) peaking. If they buy and wait for the Kansas City Cliff after 2021. That's 2 years of being a pain in our rear. Yeah it might be a nightmare for Cleveland in 2022... but by 2022 Minnesota's window might be closing around that time. 

 

For timing purposes... I think it would better for us... If Cleveland Jumps Ship this trade deadline. 

[Doomtints]

Cleveland is done if the Twins take care of business, but watch out for a long winning streak by the White Sox.

[DocBauer]

Agree with you Brian for all the points you made. However, IMO, it's about the Twins beating what is still a fairly decent team with some good talent and a big 3 in the rotation. A team that has had a good run of success.

 

It's one thing to be having a great season. But to keep momentum going, to make sure the window is not only open, but that the shutters are barely hanging on the hinges, you have to beat Cleveland, (and keep beating them), and beat the Yankees, BoSox and Rays. (Or at least win some and be competitive with a couple of those teams. You never win them all or beat everyone).

 

So far so good!

 

With the overall youth of the team, and some fine prospects arriving the next few seasons, and depth to trade, the window could be open for several years!

[Danchat]

I'm not worried at all about Cleveland. Their squad is barely playoff worthy and is very unlikely to make a run at the division with the way things look. The Twins schedule is very soft with plenty of matchups against bad teams, so at this point it would take a collapse from the Twins to even let the Indians get close. Just don't collapse and we'll be fine.

[Vanimal46]

Cleveland might sell a player like Bauer. I don't expect a Marlins-esque fire sale by any means.

[Old Twins Cap]

It's baseball, anything can happen.

 

Then again, we go to Tampa Bay, get thrashed in the opener, then run the table on them in impressive fashion.

 

I think at this point, gaming out division competition is a waste of time.

 

Twins are showing up as one of the best teams in the league, maybe historically good.

 

Let the chips fall where they may. Twins will pick them up and put them down on the way to the playoffs.

 

It's been a good run for Cleveland, how they rebuild, when they rebuild -- many paths, many mountains.

 

Twins got some serious stuff happening. Out the way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't want Cleveland to sell. I want them to hang around in a depleted capacity for awhile until they ultimately are forced to sell at a much lower price than they'd get today.

[Trov]

How is this a must win for Twins or Cleveland?  It is still early in season generally.  As long as Twins win a game they are still in fine shape.  I would love Cleveland looking to sell Hand, to the Twins only, but still think they will want to keep most pieces.  I do not expect them to buy much because they let guys leave because ownership did not want to pay them.  Other than some health issues, the team is very similar to last few years.  They have just hit a bad stretch and Twins have been crazy hot.  I have accepted the Twins are for real and I expect them to win division, but my worry is they will get out to very big lead and just rest on team going into post season, when they will need to upgrade bullpen.  This weekend showed the need for another two high end arms out of bullpen. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't want Cleveland to sell. I want them to hang around in a depleted capacity for awhile until they ultimately are forced to sell at a much lower price than they'd get today.

 

I think it really depends on how profitable the team is. They won't be getting any better next season as they lose a couple more members of their core, but there's still enough there to make a run. They're going to have to augment in some capacity (and certainly more than they did this year) if they want to have a reasonable shot at competing in 2020. So to me at least, it depends on whether or not they can be profitable.

 

Smart money will probably unload any pending FAs for anything they can get.  I think that happens this year at this point. Their big starters wont' be back anytime soon and their offense isn't that good. They could fight for the WC, but even for that right now they'd be an underdog. 

[bird]

I don't care what Cleveland does. I just want them to make bad decisions.

[Riverbrian]

 

How is this a must win for Twins or Cleveland?  It is still early in season generally.  As long as Twins win a game they are still in fine shape.  I would love Cleveland looking to sell Hand, to the Twins only, but still think they will want to keep most pieces.  I do not expect them to buy much because they let guys leave because ownership did not want to pay them.  Other than some health issues, the team is very similar to last few years.  They have just hit a bad stretch and Twins have been crazy hot.  I have accepted the Twins are for real and I expect them to win division, but my worry is they will get out to very big lead and just rest on team going into post season, when they will need to upgrade bullpen.  This weekend showed the need for another two high end arms out of bullpen. 

 

I'm seeing a bunch of posts in this thread stating "That this is not a must win" because it's "Early in the Season". 

 

I tried real hard to state in my original post "that this is not a must win" in regards to the current season but a must win "For the near future seasons". 

 

Here's my logic for wanting the Indians to sell immediately: 

 

Take a look at their payroll

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cleveland-indians-info/

 

1. As you can see... they only have to lose Martin via Free Agency. Kluber's Option can be picked up for 17 million and they can enter 2020 with basically the same team, that all the pundits felt was the team to beat this year. Remember when everyone thought the Indians were going to run away with the Central in 2019.

 

2. The Indians in theory could enter 2020 with the Rotation in tact: Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger, Salazar, Bieber. With Brad Hand Closing out games with Lindor, Ramirez and Santana leading the offense. 

 

3. They did a toe dip into a rebuild during the off-season. Kluber and Bauer trade rumors. They stayed out of the free agent market while letting Brantley, Chisenhall, Donaldson, Miller and Allen sign elsewhere plus shedding Gomes, Encarnacion, Alonso, Diaz via trade.   

 

4. I think they are tapped out. They don't want to pay the option on Kluber and the Arbitration Figure for Bauer. They would love to shed the 20 Million owed Santana for next year. But once they do that... they might as well finish the job, go ahead and trade Lindor as well. Lindor will be a sore thumb on a rebuilding team. 

 

5. If they stay in contention for a wild card spot. They still have all of this talent on the roster... they may be tempted to add. The rental prices are usually financial reasonable. Add some OF to go for the wild card spot and reassess in the off season.

 

6. If the Twins can knock them senseless this weekend... they may be tempted to just finish off what they started in the off-season. Deal Kluber and Bauer. Once they do this... there is no going back. They've sold and committed to the rebuild. 

 

7. Timing for the Twins would be outstanding if the Indians sold right now. The Twins will start to peak 2019, 2020, 2021 and the Indians would join the Tigers and Royals as rebuilding Central teams. 

 

8. I understand that some would love to see the Indians hang on and cripple their rebuild by reducing value through time. there is logic to that but as you can see from their payroll grid.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cleveland-indians-info/

 

They will still be a dangerous team in 2020 and a dangerous team with that rotation could challenge the Twins during our peak years for a run. 

 

9. I think this series is a must win to encourage the Indians to sell... right now... not reassess in the off-season... sell right now because once they kill it... it's dead. you can't turn back and it would time out perfectly for what should be our peak seasons. 

[Squirrel]

Okay ... so this is really about the Indians and not the Twins?

[USAFChief]

 

I'm seeing a bunch of posts in this thread stating "That this is not a must win" because it's "Early in the Season". 

 

I tried real hard to state in my original post "that this is not a must win" in regards to the current season but a must win "For the near future seasons". 

 

Here's my logic for wanting the Indians to sell immediately: 

 

Take a look at their payroll

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cleveland-indians-info/

 

1. As you can see... they only have to lose Martin via Free Agency. Kluber's Option can be picked up for 17 million and they can enter 2020 with basically the same team, that all the pundits felt was the team to beat this year. Remember when everyone thought the Indians were going to run away with the Central in 2019.

 

2. The Indians in theory could enter 2020 with the Rotation in tact: Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger, Salazar, Bieber. With Brad Hand Closing out games with Lindor, Ramirez and Santana leading the offense. 

 

3. They did a toe dip into a rebuild during the off-season. Kluber and Bauer trade rumors. They stayed out of the free agent market while letting Brantley, Chisenhall, Donaldson, Miller and Allen sign elsewhere plus shedding Gomes, Encarnacion, Alonso, Diaz via trade.   

 

4. I think they are tapped out. They don't want to pay the option on Kluber and the Arbitration Figure for Bauer. They would love to shed the 20 Million owed Santana for next year. But once they do that... they might as well finish the job, go ahead and trade Lindor as well. Lindor will be a sore thumb on a rebuilding team. 

 

5. If they stay in contention for a wild card spot. They still have all of this talent on the roster... they may be tempted to add. The rental prices are usually financial reasonable. Add some OF to go for the wild card spot and reassess in the off season.

 

6. If the Twins can knock them senseless this weekend... they may be tempted to just finish off what they started in the off-season. Deal Kluber and Bauer. Once they do this... there is no going back. They've sold and committed to the rebuild. 

 

7. Timing for the Twins would be outstanding if the Indians sold right now. The Twins will start to peak 2019, 2020, 2021 and the Indians would join the Tigers and Royals as rebuilding Central teams. 

 

8. I understand that some would love to see the Indians hang on and cripple their rebuild by reducing value through time. there is logic to that but as you can see from their payroll grid.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cleveland-indians-info/

 

They will still be a dangerous team in 2020 and a dangerous team with that rotation could challenge the Twins during our peak years for a run. 

 

9. I think this series is a must win to encourage the Indians to sell... right now... not reassess in the off-season... sell right now because once they kill it... it's dead. you can't turn back and it would time out perfectly for what should be our peak seasons. 

I think the Twins are better than the Indians, and no matter the result of this week's 3 game series, the better team will prove that over time.

 

I think the Twins are very likely to be better than the Indians in 2020. The Indians have a good starting rotation, and will likely have one in 2020. But they don't have an everyday team that scares anyone. And with (apparently) not much money to spend, I don't think they have a good chance of having a good team on the field next year, either.

 

So I don't particularly care what they do. The White Sox are probably a better team right now, and are even more likely to be better next year than the Indians.

 

So let them sell, not sell, partially sell, buy, do both. Don't care. They're in the rear view mirror today, and for the near future, which is as far as I think you can look ahead in baseball.

[VATwinsFan]

 

I want to see the Twins drive a stake into the hopes and dreams of Cleveland.

And drink adult beverages from their jewel encrusted skulls.

[Riverbrian]

 

Okay ... so this is really about the Indians and not the Twins?

 

It's about the future competitive relationship between the Indians and Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cleveland might sell a player like Bauer. I don't expect a Marlins-esque fire sale by any means.

 

I don't either, but they basically punted on being serious contenders this off season by giving up on having any semblance of an OF. So, imo, they should blow it up at this point. If they are that constrained for money (to keep their profit where they want), they can't afford Lindor and they can't afford to keep their pitching.

 

Imagine the haul for their pitching and Lindor.....