Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision in 9/2018

[ewen21]

 

Get over it? Again with the diva assumptions?

 

He can both continue to be pissed at the Twins FO and play well. Those are not mutually exclusive. And I see no evidence for the assumption that because he said he's pissed that he's also so fragile that he won't be able to play well until he "gets over it."  Obviously, Kris Bryant has gone out and performed despite continuing to be pissed at the Cubs FO.

 

I also have not seen anyone say that the rest of the clubhouse will stop performing well because they support Buxton and also are fragile. These are straw man arguments.

Forget the "straw man argument"  and let's address this:

 

His confidence (at least offensively) is shaken very easily and in that interview he demonstrated that he's still pretty emotionally rocked by what happened to him September. The Twins have guys like Rowson, Hunter and Molitor heap sorts of praise on him when he struggles.  It is almost like they wanted to raise this kid in a zero gravity environment where pressure and blowback is non existent.  Despite how epically bad his offense has been at times he has received virtually no negative feedback.  He's got some and he's still beside himself.  That's being fragile.  Sorry.

He says it's business.  Act like it is, then.

 

To me, his early season struggles point to a guy that is pressing way too much.  That counts as evidence.  Not THE EVIDENCE, just some evidence:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=month%7CApril%2FMarch%7Cbuxtoby01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

His play at Yankee Stadium is another thing.  Maybe he tightens up just a little there?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=oppon%7CNYY%7Cbuxtoby01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

Give me small sample size, but it is another example of what I have seen from a guy who gets really tight in certain situations.

 

As an offensive player, he carries a fragile psyche.  I cannot be out of the question that isn't part of a larger issue.  His reaction in September (according to LEN3 not answering any calls from Torii or other team officials more than a week after his return home) paint "fragile" is a reasonable portrayal.  

 

 

 

 

 

[ewen21]

 

I"m amazed at the pessimism around Buxton. Migraines and a broken toe. 

Stop right there.

 

Did you not read the article from Beradino last March about his migraines and his penchant for running into walls?  How can this not make any Twins fan feel "pessimistic" about his long term trajectory?

 

TO be concerned about his development and some of the trends is pessimistic?  Can't it also be REALISTIC to have concerns?  

 

 

 

[DrNeau]

Wasn't Buxton the one said he didn't want to sugar coat? Well, for now on that needs to be the policy when it comes to his hitting.

Technically, Buxton said he “ain’t gonna sugarcoat nothin’”, which means he will sugarcoat it. LOL.

 

Of the 480+ MLB players with a minimum of 90 ABs, Buxton was 2nd-worst. There was only 1 player who was more clueless than Buxton in the entire major leagues. Is it even possible to sugarcoat that?

[adorduan]

 

I"m amazed at the pessimism around Buxton. Migraines and a broken toe. Why would we fault him for 2018? Why wouldn't we expect him to be as good as he was in 2017? Remember, when he got MVP votes, the platinum glove and got caught stealing once (when he overslid the bag)? The potential replacements for him are not even in the same universe of upside. Why wouldn't we support him and support the team that hands him the center field job that he so obviously deserves when he's healthy? If you want this team to continue to be mediocre, put Jake Cave in there instead of Buxton. That might just convince me to stop watching this team.

$5 and potential upside will get you coffee at Starbucks. And watching Buxton flail away like a high school player might make me stop watching.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I"m amazed at the pessimism around Buxton. Migraines and a broken toe. Why would we fault him for 2018? Why wouldn't we expect him to be as good as he was in 2017? Remember, when he got MVP votes, the platinum glove and got caught stealing once (when he overslid the bag)? The potential replacements for him are not even in the same universe of upside. Why wouldn't we support him and support the team that hands him the center field job that he so obviously deserves when he's healthy? If you want this team to continue to be mediocre, put Jake Cave in there instead of Buxton. That might just convince me to stop watching this team.

 

I'm with you on the upside, but his issues are deep.  In ST last year he looked ridiculously awful.  Now, that's ST of course, but those issues carried on into the regular season prior to the injury.  

 

I want to give him the CF job and invest in his upside, but there are absolutely valid reasons to be pessimistic about him.  The range in what we could see from Buxton in 2019 is very, very wide.  He could be an MVP candidate or he could OPS .450.

[ewen21]

 

I'm with you on the upside, but his issues are deep.  In ST last year he looked ridiculously awful.  Now, that's ST of course, but those issues carried on into the regular season prior to the injury.  

 

I want to give him the CF job and invest in his upside, but there are absolutely valid reasons to be pessimistic about him.  The range in what we could see from Buxton in 2019 is very, very wide.  He could be an MVP candidate or he could OPS .450.

If we are going to be at all accurate we must look at the whole picture.  And in doing that, looking at the immediate future we have the following:

 

1. An acrimonious rift exists between the Twins and Buxton and Buxton is still angry about it.

2. In an effort to extend an olive branch the FO said he is the CF

3. His numbers out of the gate are ridiculously awful

April:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=month%7CApril%2FMarch%7Cbuxtoby01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

First Half:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=half%7C1st%20Half%7Cbuxtoby01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

Conclusion:

Something has to give.  Buxton controls his own destiny and if he comes out of the gate looking feeble again then things are going to get ugly.

[ewen21]

 

Technically, Buxton said he “ain’t gonna sugarcoat nothin’”, which means he will sugarcoat it. LOL.

Of the 480+ MLB players with a minimum of 90 ABs, Buxton was 2nd-worst. There was only 1 player who was more clueless than Buxton in the entire major leagues. Is it even possible to sugarcoat that?

 

The "ain't gonna sugarcoat it" quote is instructive for all of us as far as I am concerned.

 

 

[DrNeau]

The "ain't gonna sugarcoat it" quote is instructive for all of us as far as I am concerned.

Well, let’s respect his wishes, then. No more sugarcoating anything.

[AlwaysinModeration]

One interesting aspect of this situation is that there is a presumption by everyone involved (Buxton, the front office, the fine, obtuse and hypocritical Twins Daily posters alike) that the Twins’ adding another year of Buxton service time is costing him lots of money.

 

I don’t necessarily think that is the case for Buck. First of all, if he were arbitration eligible this year, how much would he make? I don’t know exactly, but I am guessing around $3mm. Then he could have a good year, and jump to $6 or $7mm next year, and then $10-$12mm in two years, before becoming a free agent.

 

However, if has a strong year this year, I think it is reasonable that he could get more in arbitration next year, say $5mm. He could make $9-10 the following year, and maybe $12-$15mm in three years. (Remember, Jonathan Schoop was set to make $10mm this year). So he will likely be making higher arbitration salaries by the delay.

 

What about his first free agent contract? Obviously, being young when you hit FA is a bonus, so getting his big payday for his age 28 season would be better than age 29.

 

However, it seems clear he hasn’t established himself as a superstar yet. (If he were a free agent, I wonder what he’d get on the open market right now?). I think it is more likely that he establishes himself in the next four years rather than the next three. So having four more years as a Twin before his first FA contract might actually help him have enough time to become one of the best players in the game.

 

A lot of that is speculation, but I just thought I’d point out that it’s not 100% cut and dried that losing a year of service time absolutely hurts Buxton.

[jorgenswest]

I would be ready to say that about both Buxton and the front office in 2020 or certainly 2021.

Fair enough although I believe I set the bars pretty low for 2019. Buyers are probably around .500 in July and Buxton was far above 2 WAR in 2017.

[jorgenswest]

As per the earlier conversation about the clubhouse...

 

Dan Hays had an article in the Athletic last September where he a conversation with Kyle Gibson who said there were 10-15 players that were concerned about the Twins keeping Buxton down. I have no idea if that carries over to 2019 but it seems like losing the clubhouse over how an employee is treated is in the range of possibilities though on the remote side. I don’t think the Twins should dismiss the possibility that it is more than Buxton upset with decision.

[Don Walcott]

As per the earlier conversation about the clubhouse...

 

Dan Hays had an article in the Athletic last September where he a conversation with Kyle Gibson who said there were 10-15 players that were concerned about the Twins keeping Buxton down. I have no idea if that carries over to 2019 but it seems like losing the clubhouse over how an employee is treated is in the range of possibilities though on the remote side. I don’t think the Twins should dismiss the possibility that it is more than Buxton upset with decision.

I agree. But I don’t think that translates to poor performance in the field. It translates to contract negotiations. We may be looking at nobody wanting to extend contracts with us, and more one year only deals. That reduces our assets going forward.

[DrNeau]

 

One interesting aspect of this situation is that there is a presumption by everyone involved (Buxton, the front office, the fine, obtuse and hypocritical Twins Daily posters alike)...

 

From my count, Riverbrian is obtuse, hypocritical and a diva!

[Major League Ready]

 

One interesting aspect of this situation is that there is a presumption by everyone involved (Buxton, the front office, the fine, obtuse and hypocritical Twins Daily posters alike) that the Twins’ adding another year of Buxton service time is costing him lots of money.

I don’t necessarily think that is the case for Buck. First of all, if he were arbitration eligible this year, how much would he make? I don’t know exactly, but I am guessing around $3mm. Then he could have a good year, and jump to $6 or $7mm next year, and then $10-$12mm in two years, before becoming a free agent.

However, if has a strong year this year, I think it is reasonable that he could get more in arbitration next year, say $5mm. He could make $9-10 the following year, and maybe $12-$15mm in three years. (Remember, Jonathan Schoop was set to make $10mm this year). So he will likely be making higher arbitration salaries by the delay.

What about his first free agent contract? Obviously, being young when you hit FA is a bonus, so getting his big payday for his age 28 season would be better than age 29.

However, it seems clear he hasn’t established himself as a superstar yet. (If he were a free agent, I wonder what he’d get on the open market right now?). I think it is more likely that he establishes himself in the next four years rather than the next three. So having four more years as a Twin before his first FA contract might actually help him have enough time to become one of the best players in the game.

A lot of that is speculation, but I just thought I’d point out that it’s not 100% cut and dried that losing a year of service time absolutely hurts Buxton.

 

I think it's a fair assumption that the only way getting to free agency a year later does not hurt Buxton financially is if he is so bad that he is non-tendered. It's a matter of how much. The impact will be very modest if his offensive production renders him a 4th OFer. If he reaches his ceiling, the impact will be $15-20M (rough guess). Of course, it could be anywhere between to the two extremes.

[Doomtints]

I'm going to hazard a guess that 90% of players who lay an egg like Buxton did last year never play in the MLB again.

 

Buxton still has a legit beef for being sent home in September because we all know he will be back.

 

Maybe the F.O. just didn't want him working with *Molitor* again.

[amjgt]

 

As per the earlier conversation about the clubhouse...

Dan Hays had an article in the Athletic last September where he a conversation with Kyle Gibson who said there were 10-15 players that were concerned about the Twins keeping Buxton down. I have no idea if that carries over to 2019 but it seems like losing the clubhouse over how an employee is treated is in the range of possibilities though on the remote side. I don’t think the Twins should dismiss the possibility that it is more than Buxton upset with decision.

 

This is the ultimate reason why it was a bad idea to keep him down.

 

In a vacuum, keeping Buxton down wasn't very nice, but given his performance was justifiable. But this isn't a vacuum and the non-Buxton reasons far far outweigh the Buxton reasons. Players and their agents don't like to be reminded that this is a business and who has all the power. September's fiasco made it very clear who has the power and that they are very willing to wield it. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree. But I don’t think that translates to poor performance in the field. It translates to contract negotiations. We may be looking at nobody wanting to extend contracts with us, and more one year only deals. That reduces our assets going forward.

 

I would agree that the 10-15 players who may have been concerned were likely more concerned about future contracts than with Buxton. I'm guessing Jake Cave was more than happy Buxton was kept down, he wanted to keep starting.

 

But I wouldn't think the situation is going to actually hurt the front office in negotiating extensions should they want to. The players want to make the smartest decisions for themselves, I don't think operating out of spite is typically in anyone's best financial interest. Spite is just an added bonus should it happen to align with your best interests.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would agree that the 10-15 players who may have been concerned were likely more concerned about future contracts than with Buxton. I'm guessing Jake Cave was more than happy Buxton was kept down, he wanted to keep starting.

Cave was probably the only guy whose playing time would have been directly affected by a Buxton call-up. (Or Grossman -- given that Rosario got hurt around Sep. 1st, either Cave or Grossman probably would have still started most games in September even if Buxton was added to the roster. And of course, recalling Buxton doesn't mean you have to start him every game either.)

 

I see no reason to assume the other players, most teammates of Buxton's for multiple years, would have not had a personal concern for Buxton in this situation (although that wouldn't preclude other concerns too).

 

 

But I wouldn't think the situation is going to actually hurt the front office in negotiating extensions should they want to. The players want to make the smartest decisions for themselves, I don't think operating out of spite is typically in anyone's best financial interest. Spite is just an added bonus should it happen to align with your best interests.

Generally agreed, although these decisions are rarely simple. Maybe a guy like Berrios is already weighing a desire for some financial security vs. a desire to play closer to home. Maybe an incident like this, plus coaching instability, plus selling at the trade deadline, etc., are enough to push him toward favoring the latter. And maybe the decision isn't so stark as "extension or no extension", but maybe it's between signing away one free agent year or none, etc.

 

Also, given that Buxton apparently turned down the front office's extension offer last winter, could one interpret a bit of spite in their decision to send him home in September? FWIW, Berrios was also unable to agree to an extension last winter, and switched agencies this fall.

 

There are going to be a ton of factors involved in contract decisions like this, and I wouldn't expect any single one to be all that important, but still, I'd lean toward trying to avoid situations like this, if at all possible. (And I think it was possible to avoid it with Buxton, either by more clear action/communication prior to Sep. 1, or by planning to use the option in 2019, etc.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

To put it another way: I understand that, given Buxton's struggles and the rules of the CBA, any decent front office probably secures that extra year of control. But to me, a good front office would manage to do it without the obvious and predictable drama. (Not that this front office can't be good overall, but they just don't get any "good" points from me for this particular move, at least not right now.)

[nicksaviking]

 

Cave was probably the only guy whose playing time would have been directly affected by a Buxton call-up. (Or Grossman -- given that Rosario got hurt around Sep. 1st, either Cave or Grossman probably would have still started most games in September even if Buxton was added to the roster. And of course, recalling Buxton doesn't mean you have to start him every game either.)

 

 

No I agree there's likely many players that care about Buxton and would have liked him recalled had it been their choice. I didn't mean to imply a lack of empathy on the players' part. But I'd also think that there's got to be at least a couple of guys who like Jake Cave and perhaps were happy for him. Baseball players also seem to tend to take the short view, which is important when your goal is to win the game tonight; what have you done for me lately. I'd guess those without a horse in the race were happy getting above average performances from Cave. 

 

But these guys are all human, they're still entitled to both feel bad for Buxton and enjoy the production that Cave was providing in Buxton's absence even if the dynamic between those two feelings is largely contradictory.

[Doomtints]

It was September -- everyone's playing time gets reduced except for the minor leaguers getting their taste.

[Riverbrian]

 

To put it another way: I understand that, given Buxton's struggles and the rules of the CBA, any decent front office probably secures that extra year of control. But to me, a good front office would manage to do it without the obvious and predictable drama. (Not that this front office can't be good overall, but they just don't get any "good" points from me for this particular move, at least not right now.)

 

I believe you were 100% correct that starting him in Rochester for the month of April might have been a better path to take to gain the year back .

 

However, if the front office thinks that Byron will hit the ground running on day one in 2019...  We are in technically in contention for 2019 on day one as opposed to not being in contention in September 2018. 

 

I'm not saying that's the way to look at it. I think it's possible that's the way they looked at it. Buxton in Rochester or home in Georgia has the potential to impact 2019. September 2018... this move has no impact... other than the drama it caused. 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Unless there's an injury, Buxton gets the first six weeks, every day, in CF. Maybe the first two months.

 

At that point, if he's putting up a sub-.600 OPS, fine. Give something else a try.

What do you have Cave and Kepler doing during that time? Given the current roster, I don’t see at bats for both AND Buxton. And that’s if they don’t add another hitter.

[Riverbrian]

It's not my intention to hammer on Buxton any more than I have... But I will say this:

 

I don't really like the front office statement that Buxton WILL BE the starting CF in 2019. 

 

If this September callup decision caused (in any way shape or form) the front office to feel they need to make it up to Byron by promising him a full time gig before he proves he deserves a full time gig. If they are willing to let Byron produce a 4 OPS+ and still play everyday because they feel the need to make it up to him. 

 

I immediately will switch my support for the move to non-support. If any damage has been done... it's been done. You move forward by not adding additional damage in the form of poor play. You move forward by making him earn the full time position.

 

I really believe that communication and accountability are the next steps forward. 

[nicksaviking]

 

What do you have Cave and Kepler doing during that time? Given the current roster, I don’t see at bats for both AND Buxton. And that’s if they don’t add another hitter.

 

I still hope they aren't intentionally seeking out a full time DH. Kepler can play some 1B. I think most teams with a non-rigid manager can find plenty of at bats for four guys who primarily play OF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe you were 100% correct that starting him in Rochester for the month of April might have been a better path to take to gain the year back .

 

However, if the front office thinks that Byron will hit the ground running on day one in 2019...  We are in technically in contention for 2019 on day one as opposed to not being in contention in September 2018. 

 

I'm not saying that's the way to look at it. I think it's possible that's the way they looked at it. Buxton in Rochester or home in Georgia has the potential to impact 2019. September 2018... this move has no impact... other than the drama it caused. 

 

Lots of young players miss a month or more without much concern about the marginal value they could have provided toward a pennant. And Buxton's current position, and career to date, doesn't suggest that he is particularly irreplaceable for a month. And nothing about this front office suggests they place that much importance on early season marginal wins either (for example: their Rule 5 picks, Breslow, Belisle, etc.).

 

But even so, if they wanted the possibility of Buxton in MLB to start 2019 while still gaining the extra year of control, they still could have managed 2018 much better. They probably should have just announced a shut down for health reasons when he went on the AAA DL at the beginning of August. The team had just sold at the deadline, so it would have fit with those moves. Buxton still may have been upset, but I think it would have blown over a bit better. Letting him come back, play regularly (and hit well) at AAA, then sending him home on Sep. 1st -- that was sending a lot of mixed messages.

 

I mean, we were talking on this site about the service time implications of Buxton's injuries/performance way back in June and July -- it's not like this snuck up on anybody. There's really no reason the front office had to wait until Sep. 1st to unleash the drama, unless they were wishy-washy about the whole thing. (In which case, alternatives like optioning him in 2019 were probably just as acceptable too.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What do you have Cave and Kepler doing during that time? Given the current roster, I don’t see at bats for both AND Buxton. And that’s if they don’t add another hitter.

Steamer projects Cave for an 88 wRC+ next year. (His rookie year, while encouraging in some ways, was only a 108 wRC+ aided by a .363 BABIP.) He certainly doesn't need MLB at-bats in April 2019.

[Monkeypaws]

I hope Buxton took some of his bonus money and hired a non-affiliated one-trick righty with a really good breaking ball to pitch to him all winter....

[markos]

 

It's not my intention to hammer on Buxton any more than I have... But I will say this:

 

I don't really like the front office statement that Buxton WILL BE the starting CF in 2019. 

 

If this September callup decision caused (in any way shape or form) the front office to feel they need to make it up to Byron by promising him a full time gig before he proves he deserves a full time gig. If they are willing to let Byron produce a 4 OPS+ and still play everyday because they feel the need to make it up to him. 

 

I immediately will switch my support for the move to non-support. If any damage has been done... it's been done. You move forward by not adding additional damage in the form of poor play. You move forward by making him earn the full time position.

 

I really believe that communication and accountability are the next steps forward. 

What exactly can Buxton do between now and Opening Day to earn the full time position?

[S.]

 

I still hope they aren't intentionally seeking out a full time DH. Kepler can play some 1B. I think most teams with a non-rigid manager can find plenty of at bats for four guys who primarily play OF.

And the reality is that three of those four guys who primarily play OF don't have a good enough bat to warrant them hitting as a DH or 1B.