Gross idea? Or Good Idea to Include Grossman in 2019?

[DocBauer]

With the season ending, Mauer's possible/probable ride in to the sunset against the reflections of the metro and Target Field skyline, and the firing of Molitor, I absolutely have chosen the wrong time to post this idea. Not to mention I will probably receive tremendous backlash for the idea all together. But it is my hope thjs thread will be well received and debated for what it is; part of looking forward to 2019!

 

Note, I am neither a fan nor hater of Grossman. And my opinion here has nothing to do with the hit streak Grossman showed the second half of the season, particularly the last few weeks. Rather, it is an honest evaluation of the player, his performance, and a look towards 2019.

 

Here are a couple of realities:

 

1] Grossman is an OK defensive OF. Go ahead and tell me he stinks. Personally, I've seen him make a number of bad plays. Bad plays! I've also seen him make the average plays, and a few plays where I honestly said to myself, "Grossman did that?" Hence the comment, he's an OK defensive OF. Obviously, he is best as a 5th OF, or OK 4th OF if your starting 3 are as good as hoped for.

 

2] Grossman is not a big power guy. He guts it up here and there, but not a big power guy.

 

3] His best attribute as a hitter is his ability to work counts, make contact, and get OB.

 

And point #3 is where I am going!

 

Let us all just make the assumption that most have already made, that Mauer is done. Who hits lead off for the Twins in 2019? Unless the Twins make a major move for a position player...i would guess and infielder at this point...to handle the spot, internally, it would seem Polanco is the best choice. And he may do great. But one of the best/smartest moves former manager Molitor did was play him in the # 2-3 hole. And he has thrived there, with obvious potential to do even better.

 

The number one thing(s) you want your #1 hitter to do is work the count and get OB. Yes, he is only guaranteed to actually lead off once per game. But you want him doing those things before your 2-5 hitters on a consistent basis.

 

Grossman's biggest negative would be he still fares better against LH pitching than RH pitching. Though, in 2016, he had a higher BA, SLG and OPS against RHP. Weird!

 

I did accurate, but loose calculations of Grossman over the past 3 seasons, (I say loose as I'm not delving in to advanced metrics), and projected them over a season of 500AB, figuring he would be a primary DH and occasional OF.

 

Here is what you get: .266AVG/ .371OB/ .402SLG/ .773OPS/ 30 2B/ 12 HR

 

Even with much better splits against LHP, he still has a .351 OB against RHP. Playing daily, with 500AB, could the splits even out? I don't know.

 

Again, not a hater, nor a fan of Grossman. And perhaps a FO move will bring someone in that is unexpected. Perhaps the new manager will make Polanco a viable LO candidate or do something unexpected and make Kepler the #1 guy, (good contact, good OB, power, and just needs to balance his splits). But I have to look at the reality of building a roster and a lineup. And the #1 job of that #1 hitter is to work the count and just get OB for the guys behind him.

 

One thing that always drove me crazy about Monitor's lineup was, with Mauer out, your next best contact/OB guy was Grossman. But he never put him there.

 

 

Is it possible Grossman is an underrated and "mystery man" that could have an entirely new value in 2019?

 

It's just an idea. But one I think at least has some merit. Ready for the backlash!

[beckmt]

Assuming Mauer is done, and even if he isn't, I can see Grossman having a role on this team.  I can also see Wade having a role on this team(same type of hitter).  

Declaimer:  I am not a big fan of swing and miss types.  Baseball is changing and I am willing to admit, maybe swing and miss is not as bad as the bullpens are getting so much better so hitting the 3 run bomb had more value now.

[yarnivek1972]

Assuming Mauer is done, and even if he isn't, I can see Grossman having a role on this team. I can also see Wade having a role on this team(same type of hitter).

Declaimer: I am not a big fan of swing and miss types. Baseball is changing and I am willing to admit, maybe swing and miss is not as bad as the bullpens are getting so much better so hitting the 3 run bomb had more value now.

I don’t see Wade AND Grossman on the same team barring multiple injuries.

[Vanimal46]

I'd rather see anyone else new than Grossman next year. We've seen the last 3 years what he can bring to the table; which is barely above replacement level contributions.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Gross idea

[Mike Sixel]

Gross.

 

Three years of replacement level performance. I don't see any upside, where is the upside?

 

Are you trying to win, or just get by?

[USAFChief]

Yes, it is.

[nicksaviking]

I don't want Grossman back, I think this team can do better. That said, with Mauer likely gone, Grossman's skill set is probably less redundant moving forward. Additionally, anyone who tuned out the Twins after they went in the tank missed seeing Grossman's best stretch, he probably was the Twins best hitter the last month or so.

 

Still, no thanks, I'd look for more power and defensive flexibility. Best I would do is keep him around through spring training in case of an injury then part ways come March.

[HrbekRules]

Grossman is barely replacement level.  We have seen 3 years of that.  If the Twins want to improve, they need to jettison Grossman, and either go with an unknown that has higher upside, or a known commodity that is better.

[Winston Smith]

Nooooooooooooooo!

[USAFChief]

I would replace Grossman with Cave. If I want an OBP guy, I'd be willing to let Mauer be a part time player.

 

Why?

 

Grossman is at least capable of standing in the OF, and he (.367) had a higher OBP than Mauer (.351) in 2018.

 

Higher OPS, too.

[gunnarthor]

I don't mind him depending on what the rest of the roster looks like. Take his glove away. But his on-base ability is legit and something sorely needed. And he'll be cheap, which helps this club. 

[ChrisKnutson]

Don’t mind Grossman, but I feel we could probably get similar value without him anyways sooo the FO might as well try an deal him this offseason to a national league team for a bullpen arm.

[TheLeviathan]

I think people should look around the major leagues.  "Slightly above replacement value" on the bench is not some god awful notion.

 

In fact, that's actually pretty good.  I'd welcome him back, provided he is the 5th outfielder and OF number 4 can play CF. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think people should look around the major leagues. "Slightly above replacement value" on the bench is not some god awful notion.

 

In fact, that's actually pretty good. I'd welcome him back, provided he is the 5th outfielder and OF number 4 can play CF.

Zero upside. Zero. Just play Wade. Our go get a very good OF, like the Brewers did. He isn't good, makes some money, and has no upside. How does he move this team forward?

[Nine of twelve]

We only need 4 outfielders on the roster, especially if Astudillo is around, which I hope he is. We'll have Rosario and Buxton. We should have at least one other outfielder who bats right or switch. Barring a trade or free agent signing that means Grossman should start the season on the roster. If one of the minor leaguers starts to rake during the first month or two of next season I'll change my mind, but for now he is acceptable.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Zero upside. Zero. Just play Wade. Our go get a very good OF, like the Brewers did. He isn't good, makes some money, and has no upside. How does he move this team forward?

 

I mean, I'm game to go get a very good OF too.  I also agree that there is minimal upside, but some of the arguments being used don't really fit.

 

Replacement level, or slightly above, on yoru bench is a good bench player.  We have to stop thinking about "replacement level" as a literal thing.

 

I'm of the opinion you go get a real CFer and, if Buxton shocks you into being playable again, you still have DH and 1B to rotate guys through.  But I wouldn't dismiss the idea of Grossman fitting on the bench entirely.

[gunnarthor]

 

Zero upside. Zero. Just play Wade. Our go get a very good OF, like the Brewers did. He isn't good, makes some money, and has no upside. How does he move this team forward?

I'm ok with giving Wade a shot but the FO didn't this year and I'm not sure he's good at not playing for several days and then being able to start or pinch hit in a game. For all his warts, Grossman has been a pretty good bench bat.

[yarnivek1972]

If the Twins were able to have a 6-7 man bench (hell, even 5), Grossman would be fine. The Twins carried 3 bench players most of the season. One reserve catcher, one infielder, one outfielder. It is imperative that those players be able to actually field a position. Actually, several.

 

That is also why I think acquiring a DH only type is a big mistake.

[Number3]

I don't think whether or not to keep a player like Grossman even needs to be discussed ahead of time. It totally depends on how the roster shakes out. He is a true pro who can reliably fill out a roster but the amount of PT he had this year and even being the 4 hitter in the lineup is indicative of a team that probably was not playoff caliber. If he makes the team that heads north in 2019 that is probably not a good sign.

[Doomtints]

Grossman outperformed expectations in Minnesota, but I have never had strong feelings for him one way or the other.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if his loss was felt in some way, though. Gotta be careful what you wish for. Remember everyone wanting to get rid of Nick Punto?

[Thrylos]

 

3] His best attribute as a hitter is his ability to work counts, make contact, and get OB.

 

Indeed.  Perfect attributes for an NL PH.  Thus, he should be included in a package for a top of the rotation pitcher

[Monkeypaws]

Appreciate the effort and analysis in the OP. 

[Platoon]

No! I hope the Twins get to the point where a Jake Cace is their 4th OF. The simple reason is that if they don't, then it's really going to make little difference whether RG or Oswaldo Arcia is in the OF. They will again be headed towards that coveted high draft choice!

[Vanimal46]

I think people should look around the major leagues. "Slightly above replacement value" on the bench is not some god awful notion.

 

In fact, that's actually pretty good. I'd welcome him back, provided he is the 5th outfielder and OF number 4 can play CF.

He's started 65% of games each of the last 2 seasons. Is that considered a bench role these days?

[ewen21]

We need to have Grossman for a 4th year?

 

I tell you what....if we bring him back this team has issues

[Thrylos]

Here is some food for thought: 

 

Robbie Grossman in 129 Games and 465 PAs, had exactly the same fWAR that Willans Astudillo had in 30 games and 97 PAs.   Likely cannot have both on the Twins' bench.

Which one deserves to be there?

[Brock Beauchamp]

On a team with Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Cave, and Austin, I'm not sure where you expect to play Grossman so he can get those leadoff PAs.

[yarnivek1972]

Here is some food for thought:

 

Robbie Grossman in 129 Games and 465 PAs, had exactly the same fWAR that Willans Astudillo had in 30 games and 97 PAs. Likely cannot have both on the Twins' bench.

Which one deserves to be there?

Honest question:

 

Does Astudillo’s nightmarish outing as a pitcher impact his WAR number? It certainly wouldn’t help it.

[Nine of twelve]

 

He's started 65% of games each of the last 2 seasons. Is that considered a bench role these days?

If there are 4 outfielders who share three positions equally each one will start 75%. So when you factor in the number of players who have started in the outfield no, this is in effect a starting role.