Dozier Discount? Escobar Premium?

[jokin]

The Twins have many more questions than answers as to who should man the IF in 2019. Two July-traded IF Twins mainstays will be FAs this offseason. Are either likely to be pursued by the Twins FO with oodles of soon-available room on the payroll? Consider:

 

1) Escobar turns 30 in 2019, while Dozier turns 32.

 

2) The Twins are turning over the roster and have a huge hole in leadership types.

 

3) There is no one currently in the farm system that is ready to assume any IF position in 2019.

 

4) As bad as Brian Dozier's 2018 season was with the Twins, his performance level has utterly collapsed in La  La Land. In the midst of an intense pennant race, Dozier's reps have been severely diminished and his poor August has led to a complete statistical collapse in September.

 

Here's his stat line since 8/31/19 (in 52 PAs):

 

.063/.135/.125/(.260) wRC+ -27 HR 0

 

Questions- How much has he damaged his upcoming FA?

Is he somehow irredeemably medically and physically damaged?

Can he get more than a one-year offer?

Can he get more than a minor league make good offer?

Might the Twins be the source for his ONLY "competitive" offer- and how much would that be?

 

5) Eduardo Escobar's #s have tailed off somewhat from his torrid season while with the Twins, but perhaps some of his slightly lower production can be attributed to his BABIP plummeting from .325 to .276- as his K% improved dramatically downward with the D-Backs, while his LD% and HR/FB% were also improved over his time with the Twins.

 

Questions- How much of a premium is Escobar worth with the hole at 2B and huge questions about Sano at 3B?

 

Should the Twins...

1) Sign Escobar as a starter at 2B or 3B....

 

2) Sign both Escobar and Dozier to reprise their Twins roles...

 

3) Sign Dozier only to a 1-year bargain deal as a bridge to Lewis- with Polanco eventually swinging over to 2B in 2020/

 

...OR...

 

4) Go ALL-IN and make a huge move to stabilize the IF and go after and sign Jose Iglesias @ SS for 2 (3?) years (2018 .865 OPS vs. LHP while Escobar is 2018 .846 vs RHP), moving Polanco to 2B

- (or sign Asdrubal Cabrera for 1 year to play 2B and keep Polanco at SS)

- and then ALSO sign and return Escobar in a Super Utility role and paying him a premium, say something like 4/$56M (Zobrist's current contract) to get his much-needed stability and leadership to fill any IF/corner OF spot (the Twins are short one RH hitting OF), + DH duty,

- meanwhile in the process successfully buying Sano and Royce Lewis insurance?

 

I prefer something like #4- desperate times call for aggressive, but sensible measures. Escobar could go full-pumpkin sooner than we hope, but I don't think potentially being out a good chunk of $56M over 4 years is going to jeopardize the franchise's fortunes.

 

 

[beckmt]

Dozier left under somewhat bad terms (blasting the trades before he was traded), do not think he comes back.  Escobar is nice, but will probably want more than 2 years, as it seems like we have several utility types with the club now.  Still would not be a bad fit, just wondering how much the overpay will be.  Would rather put most of the money in on pitching.  We have a low starting payroll next year and it will probably be 2021 before our offensive starters command significant amounts of money. 

Much depends on if Mauer returns(which I doubt) and if you can sign Berrios and Rosario to 5 - 7 year deals at a decent rate.  Interesting offseason.

[Platoon]

I will preface this by saying that any IF move the Twins make that does not move Polanco to second base is pretty much a waste of time. I like EE, but would prefer him as a true utility guy. Dozier? One of the very few things Molitor did that I agree with was allow Dozier to sit in the leadoff hole for so long. Whether by true genius?, or an inability to stand up to Doziers insistence on that spot, Dozier belongs either there, or 7,8, or 9. He has never produced in the clutch, his tenure in LA is simply a continuation of that issue. Its gonna be a crazy winter. It's entirely possible that not one IF postion will be filled with the same player next year that mans it now, assuming (hoping) they move Polanco to second.

[The Wise One]

On your in proposal number 4. You tout Iglesias's   prowess against LHP but not his RHP prowess Only about 25% of the innings are pitched by LHP, so his OPS of .649 against RHP is insignificant not to be mentioned?. Here you can check out the numbers https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=iglesjo01&year=Career&t=b While you are at it, Baseball reference has career ops against  LHP as .749  I do not think he has quite the bat that you do.  Defense is great.

The last big payday for a ss was Jose Reyes, the lasr big payday for 2b was Daniel Murphy. Not exactly big ringing endorsements for spending money on MI

 

One could easily think that by you wanting to pay Escobar like Zobrist  that  you think  Escobar=Zobrist.   https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7435&position=2B/OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6153&position=3B/SS

 

When you look at the numbers, even for this year perhaps you could explain what somebody was missing.  My best guess on the reason to pay Escobar like Zobrisr is because of Venzuala's  Inflation  There is no reason to think Escobar should, or would get paid like Zobrist

[diehardtwinsfan]

I doubt Dozier gets anything other than a 1 year make good deal. Not sure he's the best fit here either. I could see worse one year deals, but as streaky as he is, I'm not sure I want to risk getting cold Dozier to start 2019. I'd definitely go after Escobar. I'd let him start at 2B until Gordon is ready and move him into a 5th starter role in the IF after that. He starts 4 out of 5 games at different positions. 

[big dog]

Man, I'm glad we got something for Dozier and didn't make a qualifying offer.  I enjoyed watching him, but...yikes.

 

I would like Escobar back, but I don't see why he'd sign up for a utility role with uncertain playing time after being a full-time at third base with Arizona.

 

Would like a shortstop, with Polanco moving to second.  Don't like the idea of one-year contracts after the way Levine described the clubhouse during his amazing discussion.  Right person, right place, I guess it could happen.   

[rv78]

I doubt either one will be back in Twins Territory. I definitely hope they do NOT pursue Dozier. His career is pretty much over. Scooby would be good insurance but do we need him if we can find a mainstay at those positions. Surely Polanco is going to occupy either SS or 2B next year full-time. Scooby's going to be too expensive to just be a fill-in/backup/utility player. 

[Old Twins Cap]

Escobar is a keeper, maybe all the way to manager someday. 

 

He's a likeable guy and earns respect of the young latino players.

 

How many doubles did he hit in the first half season?

 

Dozier, no thanks. Greatful he came out of nowhere and produced but gotta know when to switch horses.

[ChrisKnutson]

Bringing Escobar would be great and all, but does he want to come back? And is coming back to the Twins what’s best for him long term?? At this point I’m not even sure if we’d be able to get him back if wanted, given Esco’s versatility/strong bat, all of which are much more important in the NL than AL. Galvis or Harrison are much more realistic options.

[jorgenswest]

If Dozier’s knee injury is the root of his poor performance he might be the best bargain of the winter on a one year deal.

 

The Twins need to middle infielders. Neither Dozier nor Escobar should be ruled out without at least finding out what it will take to sign them.

[Rosterman]

I hate the thought that Dozier might be in Trevor Plouffe territory. He will still get a decent offer from someone ($4-5 million fer sure) but only a one-year deal. We seem to forget that the phone never rang off the hook to get him when he was tradebait in the summer of 2017, the off-season, or even this season.  The nice thing is the Twins could be in the hunt of they so desire.

 

Same with Escobar. How much? Is he an elite player? No. How many teams DO see him as a regular at any infield position, that is the big question. And will determine the length of the contract. Either way, he is probably looking at a multi-year deal around $25 million (doubt he gets more). Does anyone see him getting a one-year $10+ million offer?

 

I was discouraged with the Twins NOT playing Polanco at second, if that is to be his best position. I'm not sure the reasoning behind Forsythe, except they are paying him, but see him coming back even less than another run at Dozier. Forsythe will have the same issues as Dozier. A lackluster 2018 doesn't justify a large contract, let alone a multi-year deal. 

 

This was the time of the season for the Twins to see more of what they have. Happily Santana and Morrison went on the DL. They played Austin. I'm not sure the total reasoning about playing players out of position) Gimenez in the infield, Garver at first) and although he may be overmatched, if Nick Gordon is a future Twin, they could've given him playing time at second just to get an advance looksee.

 

The Buxton situation is a mess. If he is still truly recovering, best to let him just rest and workout (and the way they are doing it saves service time). But they were still paying him. How many of us are overjoyed seeing an outfield of Cave, Field and Grossman in September? 

 

And the reasoning behind giving innings to Belisel? Any reasoning? So many arms in the pen. Even giving innings to fringe guys like, sadly, Duffey and Slegers and Magill can be questioned, but they have youth on their side, in some aspects. 

 

Maybe there are some longterm players the Twins can put under contract, better than Dozier AND Escobar. 

 

But watching the off-season and the jobs "former" Twins get will really hit us hard in the stomach that these guys WERE TWINS and were a big part of plans in 2018.

 

[Blake]

Manny Machado.

 

At least make an offer.

[Doomtints]

Escobar will be too much $$$. I don't anticipate much of a market for Dozier if the Twins want him back.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier is going to get a one year deal to try and make good, but I'd never give him more than 1 year from this point any way.

 

Odds are that he's cooked.  

[Vanimal46]

I concur with Platoon. Any moves that doesn't switch Polanco off of SS is a moot point. They need a legit fielding SS, and if Iglesias is the best bet, sign him.

 

I'm not sure why we want to bring the band back together when the best they've done is win 85 games.

[South Dakota Tom]

  EE to 3b on 3-year deal, Polanco to 2b, sign Iglesias for 2-3, Sano to 1B/DH with Austin as backup/DH.  Sign one starter and two relievers - bench of Garver, Adrianza, Cave and Astudillo.

[Riverbrian]

 

His performance is going to hurt his pocketbook. He won't be playing much in the playoffs... He lost his job in LA very quickly. This will hurt. Why pay long term for Dozier when he can't beat out Kike Hernandez for a job at an Arb 1 salary? 

 

The Free Agent environment that was established last off season is going to hurt his pocketbook. Money for 32 Year olds didn't seem to be there. 

 

Supply and Demand will really hurt his pocketbook. If you want the big contract you need teams bidding for your services. The teams looking for a 2B will be the teams who are losing a 2B to free agency so these guys just might replace each other and this will minimize the bidding in a game of musical chairs.

 

Dozier being a 2B only is going to lighten his pocketbook by lightening demand along with the other 2 factors. 

 

I'd love to have Dozier back at a bargain price. Dozier may come back at that bargain price but sadly... we can't take him back if he is allowed to go through 3 months (a full season) of slumping without a dent in his playing time.

 

Dozier will have to come back and compete for a job or no deal in my eyes. The temptation must be removed because moderation is lacking when his play is bad for us. 

 

Escobar has the 3B market, 2B market, SS market, Utility market and even the OF market for certain teams like the Dodgers and Cubs. This increases demand and with every position he can play, he moves incrementally into lighter supply.

 

Escobar will simply have more teams interested in him and will get the bigger contract and I believe it's quite possible that Dozier is the better player. 

 

Supply and Demand... If any players (and their agents) who are insistent on playing one single position don't see the handwriting on the wall. They can blame themselves for the contract they get. 

 

Escobar remains my number one free agent target. 

[rdehring]

Why do people continue to say that we need someone until Gordon is ready.  After what we saw late in 2017 and this year, will Gordon ever be ready?  Will he eventually be a utility player, at best?  He is no longer on my radar as a player who will play a role in the Twins future.  Could happen, but becoming more of a long shot.  Maybe he should spend more time training this winter, like Berrios, rather than putting out rap videos.

 

Dozier, not certain I want him in the locker room on a one year deal.  Could be more of what it was this year.  Escobar, would love to have him on a two or three year contract.  Whether he is the starting second baseman, shortstop or third baseman...whatever is best.  Then Adrianza becomes the utility guy and moves into a starting spot when Sano is unable to play third...which is more likely than 50-50 at some point in the year.  Get it done FO.

[nicksaviking]

Maybe see if the possibly rebuilding Giants want to get out from under most or all of Brandon Crawford’s deal. Solid defensively and while his bat isn’t worth his salary he’s never a black hole.

[Mike Sixel]

Why do people continue to say that we need someone until Gordon is ready. After what we saw late in 2017 and this year, will Gordon ever be ready? Will he eventually be a utility player, at best? He is no longer on my radar as a player who will play a role in the Twins future. Could happen, but becoming more of a long shot. Maybe he should spend more time training this winter, like Berrios, rather than putting out rap videos.

 

Dozier, not certain I want him in the locker room on a one year deal. Could be more of what it was this year. Escobar, would love to have him on a two or three year contract. Whether he is the starting second baseman, shortstop or third baseman...whatever is best. Then Adrianza becomes the utility guy and moves into a starting spot when Sano is unable to play third...which is more likely than 50-50 at some point in the year. Get it done FO.

Gordon is 22 and a top 100 prospect. Why anyone is giving up on him is, I'm not sure the word.

 

Zero reason to sign Dozier. Sign guys to win, or sign flyers...I will never understand why gamey want to bring back the band, when the band was bad....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m not sure Gordon can be a big league starter at 2b or SS. Seems more likely a utility guy, but I’d like for him to get as much polish as possible b4 the twins make the call.

 

Lewis looks like he could be a legit SS or 2b, but is at least 2 years away.

 

I’m in 100% agreement with Platoon. Get SS shored up with Iglesias (or someone else) move Polanco to 2b.

 

If Gordon surprises me, then there’s a great surplus of assets in a difficult to find up the middle position. No such thing as too many SS.

[ewen21]

 

 

 

Dozier, no thanks. Greatful he came out of nowhere and produced but gotta know when to switch horses.

Totally agree.  I don't get the counterintuitive logic of "his value is down after playing poorly so let's go get him".  It is the same stuff I read when it came to Buxton.  He had a lousy year, so let's extend him!  WHAT???

[bird]

I like option #4.

 

If I'm GM, Escobar is my first priority. Pay him at the top end of his market in years and dollars as long as he understands his role as a super utility guy, along with Adrianza, to spell Sano at 3B, a flippable Iglesias at SS perhaps, and Polanco at 2B.

 

I'd instruct Brad Steil to have some very specific plans to improve the positional flexibility out there: Garver gets a 1B glove and some practice time there, because Astudillo makes my team. Tyler Austin keeps an OF and 1B glove buried somewhere deep in his locker. Kirilloff goes to instructs and lifts weights and takes throws and grounders at 1B, Gordon gets some 2B reps, Lewis shags flies in CF. Exception: Wander Javier comes back and starts every day at SS and gets pushed up the system aggressively.

[Thrylos]

Dozier's value at this point is a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, but that will and should not be with the Twins. Enough whining and burned bridges.

 

I'd try to get Escobar back in the utility role with a 2-3 year contract, if he accepts, because he can contribute in that role and is a positive in the clubhouse.

 

I'd also try to sign DJ LeMahieu to a 2-3 year contract to play second base and potentially move to 3rd when Arraez is ready (and he might be next September.)

[Winston Smith]

They need a shortstop not a second baseman. Polanco is a bad shortstop move him to 2B where he belongs and sign or trade for a shortstop!

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins are not going to re-sign Dozier, nor should they.

 

Escobar is only a fit if Sano moves to 1B. The super-utility idea is not going to cut it on the open market.

[jokin]

 

I will preface this by saying that any IF move the Twins make that does not move Polanco to second base is pretty much a waste of time. I like EE, but would prefer him as a true utility guy. Dozier? One of the very few things Molitor did that I agree with was allow Dozier to sit in the leadoff hole for so long. Whether by true genius?, or an inability to stand up to Doziers insistence on that spot, Dozier belongs either there, or 7,8, or 9. He has never produced in the clutch, his tenure in LA is simply a continuation of that issue. Its gonna be a crazy winter. It's entirely possible that not one IF postion will be filled with the same player next year that mans it now, assuming (hoping) they move Polanco to second.

 

Great post. And I really agree that the Twins will be most benefited by moving Polanco off SS, the sooner the better. How to get there? Evidence suggests that Escobar isn't up to playing there full-time over a full season- but excels in spot duty at the spot, especially when factoring in the platoon split advantage. But that means necessarily acquiring another proven player to fill the SS breach.

 

I think (hope) they've moved on from Dozier, but I don't know for sure if they still might consider him a short-term discount option fix in lieu of signing Escobar and/or another expensive IF option.

 

I don't know how you can go into next season with the current state of affairs thinking pitching is a greater priority than an IF "fix". They both need equal attention.

 

 

[jokin]

 

Totally agree.  I don't get the counterintuitive logic of "his value is down after playing poorly so let's go get him".  It is the same stuff I read when it came to Buxton.  He had a lousy year, so let's extend him!  WHAT???

 

I hope they don't go after Dozier, either. But the stats and marketing departments (and agents) sometimes successfully sell their agendas and arguments to management.

[Danchat]

Yeah, I don't think Dozier wants to be back here with this FO in town. As others have said I'd rather look for a SS.

[jokin]

 

 

One could easily think that by you wanting to pay Escobar like Zobrist  that  you think  Escobar=Zobrist.   https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7435&position=2B/OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6153&position=3B/SS

 

When you look at the numbers, even for this year perhaps you could explain what somebody was missing.  My best guess on the reason to pay Escobar like Zobrisr is because of Venzuala's  Inflation  There is no reason to think Escobar should, or would get paid like Zobrist

 

Nice try. Where was it stated that Escobar = Zobrist?

 

"No reason" to think Escobar "should" or "would"? Really?

 

Consider:

 

Escobar fWAR for 2017-18- 5.1

Zobrist fWAR for 2017-18- 4.1

 

Escobar age 29

Zobrist age 37

 

Zobrist's deal signed in winter of 2015-16 @ age 34

Escobar's deal will be signed in winter of 2018-19 @ age 29.

 

Escobar plays primarily at 3B and SS.

Zobrist plays primarily at 2B and corner OF.

 

Believe it or not, there is also salary inflation in MLB. 3 years after Zobrist's deal and teams' growing appreciation of positional flexibility, it's quite likely a Zobrist-like Super Utility player has the potential to command something close to Zobrist's deal.

 

And to re-remind you, the topic title of the article was, in part, "Escobar Premium?"

re- how much can/should the Twins OVERPAY to get Escobar back in order to shore up a completely fractured IF situation in order to be competitive in 2019.