Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[ashbury]

I’ve never heard anyone state that they didn’t think Kirillof could stick at corner OF

Kepler either.

[amjgt]

I'm confused... Kepler is a good corner OF defender and can play a passable CF in a pinch. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I’ve never heard anyone state that they didn’t think Kirillof could stick at corner OF

 

I believe the scouting reports on him say that he will never be a top notch defender... the flip side is that the bat is good enough to make up for what will likely be below average to average defense in a corner. He may end up being a future DH, but like Sano, the longer you can keep him in the field, the more value he provides. 

[Dman]

 

I believe the scouting reports on him say that he will never be a top notch defender... the flip side is that the bat is good enough to make up for what will likely be below average to average defense in a corner. He may end up being a future DH, but like Sano, the longer you can keep him in the field, the more value he provides. 

 

While he is not a 60 runner or fielder he also isn't below average either.  He should be solid in right or left for several years before he has to move out of the outfield.  He isn't that far removed from playing center field in High School.  I am not sure where this narrative of sub par defense comes from.  MLB had him as 50, 50, 50 for defense so nothing below average and I believe Fangraphs has him pegged similarly. So who are these scouts that see such deficiency?

[S.]

We've been playing Grossman in the outfield for years, so I can't say I'm too concerned about having an outfielder who is a middling defender and a good hitter. Even if he is a slightly below average defender and a slightly above average hitter, that'd be an upgrade.

[dbminn]

Fangraphs has made their final prospect ranking "adjustments" for 2018. Lewis to 5th and Kirilloff to 15th. Graterol didn't move, which is a surprise. 

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs has made their final prospect ranking "adjustments" for 2018. Lewis to 5th and Kirilloff to 15th. Graterol didn't move, which is a surprise.

And Gordon still 60.... Sites still like him a lot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Graterol didn't move, which is a surprise. 

I don't know about that -- Graterol had a solid season to cement his spot, but at the same time it wasn't necessarily so dominant as to demand moving him up national lists. Some of that is just a limitation of his age/innings/level/league too (his K rate was right around league average after moving up to the FSL). There's some good pitching prospects around him on that list, so there's no shame in staying there for now.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I believe the scouting reports on him say that he will never be a top notch defender... the flip side is that the bat is good enough to make up for what will likely be below average to average defense in a corner. He may end up being a future DH, but like Sano, the longer you can keep him in the field, the more value he provides. 

 

I guess I don't see Kepler's glove as deciding his future.  His bat is the question mark.

 

Kiriloff's future spot probably depends on whether Buxton ever becomes what we want him to be.  If he doesn't, Kepler is likely the CFer going forward.  If he is, then we have a logjam.  But we're a long way from that.  Hopefully Kep and Buxton's bats help that logjam become a reality.

 

It'd be a nice problem to have.

[jimmer]

Kepler is a quality major leaguer who is only going to get better. 

[USAFChief]

 

I guess I don't see Kepler's glove as deciding his future.  His bat is the question mark.

 

Kiriloff's future spot probably depends on whether Buxton ever becomes what we want him to be.  If he doesn't, Kepler is likely the CFer going forward.  If he is, then we have a logjam.  But we're a long way from that.  Hopefully Kep and Buxton's bats help that logjam become a reality.

 

It'd be a nice problem to have.

I have a hard time imagining Kepler as the full time center fielder. I doubt that happens.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Fangraphs has made their final prospect ranking "adjustments" for 2018. Lewis to 5th and Kirilloff to 15th. Graterol didn't move, which is a surprise. 

 

Maybe I read it wrong, but I don't think they fully re-did the top 100. I think they made some adjustments where there were big changes . . . the bottom 50 will probably change as they do their in-depth, org by org reviews.

[bird]

 

I guess I don't see Kepler's glove as deciding his future.  His bat is the question mark.

 

Kiriloff's future spot probably depends on whether Buxton ever becomes what we want him to be.  If he doesn't, Kepler is likely the CFer going forward.  If he is, then we have a logjam.  But we're a long way from that.  Hopefully Kep and Buxton's bats help that logjam become a reality.

 

It'd be a nice problem to have.

 

 

Molitor certainly seems to think Kepler has more ceiling, drawing a comp to Christian Yellich recently.

 

I can envision Buxton coming around adequately and Kepler reaching another plateau. In 2019, maybe Austin and Mauer at 1B, Kirilloff and Rooker in AA/AAA? In 2020, Mauer retires, Kirilloff and Rooker take over 1B/DH responsibilities, maybe Lewis at SS and Polanco at 2B? A fairly decent OF with Rosario, a renewed Buxton, and an improved Kepler? It's possible...

[bird]

 

I don't know about that -- Graterol had a solid season to cement his spot, but at the same time it wasn't necessarily so dominant as to demand moving him up national lists. Some of that is just a limitation of his age/innings/level/league too (his K rate was right around league average after moving up to the FSL). There's some good pitching prospects around him on that list, so there's no shame in staying there for now.

 

No shame at all.

 

There are six pitching prospects listed in this top 100 belonging to teams in the AL Central. Graterol is in a second tier of those with CWS's Cease and Dunning. The other three are Kopech, Detroit's Mize, and Cleveland's McKenzie. All five of these other pitching prospects were first round draft picks.

 

We have to remember that Graterol started last year in the GCL, getting his first real taste of professional baseball in the states. He might ultimately have a better career than half of these first round guys.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I have a hard time imagining Kepler as the full time center fielder. I doubt that happens.

 

It's not ideal.  I like Max Kepler and I'm rooting for him to have a Rosario-like breakout next year.  

 

However, he's in a weird boat of not being good enough in CF where the bat is a plus, but not good enough as a hitter to be a plus player in RF either.   Obviously, if Buxton becomes what we hope finally, CF is all locked up, but that's far from a given.

 

And Kiriloff looks like a guy you might be able to call up sooner than originally expected.  If that happens and Buxton can't play CF....wouldn't Kepler be the logical choice?  (We're down a lengthy hypothetical to be sure)

[Squirrel]

REMINDER: the purpose of this thread is to serve as an aggregate for national news stories on the Twins. The discussion on Kepler, while interesting, belongs elsewhere as it is sidetracking this thread. If you want to continue the discussion, please start a separate thread and keep this one to post various news stories and links. Thank you.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Kepler is a quality major leaguer who is only going to get better. 

 

I tend to agree, but he's been barely above league average with the bat for a couple seasons now, and he's not a league average defensive CF... I really do hope that we see that break out from him. That would be huge for this team. 

[Mike Sixel]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

 

Dave: Are you ok with Lewis and Kirilloff missing the AFL?

Keith Law: They didn’t miss it – they weren’t chosen, probably because both played full seasons already.

 

Jason : With talk of his possible retirement, is Joe Mayer a HOF player? Is he if he stayed at catcher?

 

Keith Law: If he retires now, he’s going to be a borderline case who struggles on the ballot because his traditional numbers don’t add up and because he doesn’t ‘feel’ like a HoFer, while folks like me or Jay Jaffe may end up banging the drum for him when he pulls in 21% of the vote in year one.

 

ScottyD in Downingtown: Kiriloff starts 2019 at AA? Would a mid-2020 ETA in Minnesota be accurate?

 

Keith Law: That’s probably right – although really, he might be ready next September, and we’re all arguing about service time manipulation again.

 

Big Tawn: Does Byron Buxton need a change of scenery for his bat to pan out? Can he realistically be a 50 hitter with 50 power?

 

Keith Law: I think he can be that guy, but I don’t know if he needs a change of scenery, or just, you know, major league at bats.

 

Matt: Are Mauer and McCutchen and David Wright HOF players to you? I heard Buster talk about them on the podcast. Just curious.

 

Keith Law: Mauer will be close. The others I think are on the outside.

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Logan
12:55 Royce Lewis is now listed at SS instead of CF on the board. Think he sticks in the dirt?

 

Kiley McDaniel
12:55 Looks more likely now than ever! Talked about this some of the last podcast too.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-9-19-18/

 

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
1:10 Odds we see Kiriloff in MN next year at some point? thanks!

 

Kiley McDaniel
1:11 On this trajectory, he would be deserving of at least a September look. May depend on competitive situation to see if he actually does get a look

[Mike Sixel]

Chris
2:09 Do you think Max Kepler has more to offer or is he what he is at this point?

 

Keith Law
2:09 Still expecting more. Again, maybe I'm just stubborn.

 

 

[Physics Guy]

 

Chris
2:09 Do you think Max Kepler has more to offer or is he what he is at this point?

 

Keith Law
2:09 Still expecting more. Again, maybe I'm just stubborn.

That was my question!  I was hoping he would see it my way.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That was my question!  I was hoping he would see it my way.

 

I asked pretty much the same question......glad yours got answered.

[Mike Sixel]

Bullpens
10:17 Besides the Rays and As, which teams are most built for/most likely to decelop a pitching staff that fully blurs the line between SP and RP?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:17 Could see the Padres ending up somewhere like that
10:18 And since the Twins are already experimenting at Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, they're clearly open-minded

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-9-21-18/

 

[Thrylos]

 

I don't know about that -- Graterol had a solid season to cement his spot, but at the same time it wasn't necessarily so dominant as to demand moving him up national lists. Some of that is just a limitation of his age/innings/level/league too (his K rate was right around league average after moving up to the FSL). There's some good pitching prospects around him on that list, so there's no shame in staying there for now.

 

They got Sixto Sanchez who is the same age (actually a month older) ranked 16th.  They played at the same 2 levels.  Here are their results:

 

A: 
Graterol: 41-1/3 IP, 2.18 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Sixto Sanchez: 67-1/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 0.817 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.2 BB/9

A+: 
Graterol: 60-2/3 IO, 3.12 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Sanchez: 46-2/3 IP, 2.51 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

 

Sanchez (even though he spent more time than Graterol in A than A+) is a bit better.  But not a dropoff from 16 to 98.

 

Just sayin'...  

 

[Lonestar]

Didn't see this posted. Interesting insight from Rotographs:

 

Taylor Rogers, who has been Paul Molitor’s primary setup reliever, has rattled off 24 consecutive scoreless appearances, covering 22 innings. Over this seven-week period, Rogers has struck out 26 batters and allowed only seven singles, two doubles and two walks.

 

Rogers has improved in large part due to the addition of a slider this season, but increased curveball movement has been key to his success as well. Only Ryan Pressly has accrued more pitch value from curveballs than Rogers has in the second half. In a recent conversation, Rogers credited his work with bullpen coach Eddie Guardado for helping him to make adjustments to his delivery, and believes the changes have stuck due to frequent visualizing he does while throwing from flat ground.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-september-17-2018/ 

[PseudoSABR]

 

They got Sixto Sanchez who is the same age (actually a month older) ranked 16th.  They played at the same 2 levels.  Here are their results:

 

A: 
Graterol: 41-1/3 IP, 2.18 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Sixto Sanchez: 67-1/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 0.817 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.2 BB/9

A+: 
Graterol: 60-2/3 IO, 3.12 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Sanchez: 46-2/3 IP, 2.51 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

 

Sanchez (even though he spent more time than Graterol in A than A+) is a bit better.  But not a dropoff from 16 to 98.

 

Just sayin'...  

Sanchez has also been on the national radar longer than Graterol.  I think that largely explains the gap.

[blindeke]

Reading this Aaron Hicks article in 538 makes me mad all over again.

 

Check it out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-needs-bryce-harper-when-you-have-aaron-hicks/

 

A notable quote here:

 

On Nov. 11, 2015, the Twins ran out of patience and traded Hicks to the Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, a replacement-level catcher with a career on-base mark of .269. Murphy is now a backup in Arizona.

 

“In Minnesota, I feel like I was just trying to hit for a high average. That’s pretty much all I was trying to do,” Hicks told me in July. “I didn’t worry about home runs or anything like that. I just tried to get on base and have a high on-base percentage and hit singles: up-the-middle, opposite field.”

 

The approach was generally ineffective for Hicks. When he arrived at Yankee Stadium, which has one of the shortest right-field fences in baseball, his entire philosophy changed. With the Twins in 2015, Hicks pulled batted balls at a 35.8 percent rate. Hicks has increased his pull percentage to 42.9 percent last season and to 45.1 percent this season, making him the 28th most pull-oriented hitter in the game.

 

“When I came here, they wanted me to use my athleticism to hit the ball in the air more,” Hicks said. “Hit for more power. … The [Yankees major league] staff has been amazing as far as being able to elevate my game, different approaches in how to attack the baseball, and how to become the type of player I want to be.”

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Reading this Aaron Hicks article in 538 makes me mad all over again.

 

Check it out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-needs-bryce-harper-when-you-have-aaron-hicks/

 

A notable quote here:

 

On Nov. 11, 2015, the Twins ran out of patience and traded Hicks to the Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, a replacement-level catcher with a career on-base mark of .269. Murphy is now a backup in Arizona.

 

“In Minnesota, I feel like I was just trying to hit for a high average. That’s pretty much all I was trying to do,” Hicks told me in July. “I didn’t worry about home runs or anything like that. I just tried to get on base and have a high on-base percentage and hit singles: up-the-middle, opposite field.”

 

The approach was generally ineffective for Hicks. When he arrived at Yankee Stadium, which has one of the shortest right-field fences in baseball, his entire philosophy changed. With the Twins in 2015, Hicks pulled batted balls at a 35.8 percent rate. Hicks has increased his pull percentage to 42.9 percent last season and to 45.1 percent this season, making him the 28th most pull-oriented hitter in the game.

 

“When I came here, they wanted me to use my athleticism to hit the ball in the air more,” Hicks said. “Hit for more power. … The [Yankees major league] staff has been amazing as far as being able to elevate my game, different approaches in how to attack the baseball, and how to become the type of player I want to be.”

 

Good for him. I'm glad he's getting to realize his potential. It didn't look like he would for the longest time.

 

Can't do anything about it on our end and the guy who made that decision is gone, likely at least in part because of that poor decision.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Reading this Aaron Hicks article in 538 makes me mad all over again.

 

Check it out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-needs-bryce-harper-when-you-have-aaron-hicks/

 

A notable quote here:

 

On Nov. 11, 2015, the Twins ran out of patience and traded Hicks to the Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, a replacement-level catcher with a career on-base mark of .269. Murphy is now a backup in Arizona.

 

“In Minnesota, I feel like I was just trying to hit for a high average. That’s pretty much all I was trying to do,” Hicks told me in July. “I didn’t worry about home runs or anything like that. I just tried to get on base and have a high on-base percentage and hit singles: up-the-middle, opposite field.”

 

The approach was generally ineffective for Hicks. When he arrived at Yankee Stadium, which has one of the shortest right-field fences in baseball, his entire philosophy changed. With the Twins in 2015, Hicks pulled batted balls at a 35.8 percent rate. Hicks has increased his pull percentage to 42.9 percent last season and to 45.1 percent this season, making him the 28th most pull-oriented hitter in the game.

 

“When I came here, they wanted me to use my athleticism to hit the ball in the air more,” Hicks said. “Hit for more power. … The [Yankees major league] staff has been amazing as far as being able to elevate my game, different approaches in how to attack the baseball, and how to become the type of player I want to be.”

While Vavra is probably a fine person and all that, there are numerous stories like this out there (JJ Hardy comes to mind). Also several players who hit better after leaving the Twins (look at Torri's stats for the Twins vs. his stats with the Angels, when he was 'past his prime').

Good for Hicks in NY, but I don't think that had we kept him he would have hit like he is hitting now. Certainly not while Vavra was still the hitting coach.