Article: CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side Slip

[Tom Froemming]

Lance Lynn was pitching well, the Twins held a 4-2 lead and they were playing the White Sox in the sixth inning. What could go wrong? Lynn opened the bottom of the sixth by slipping while trying to field a weak grounder in the grass, and from that moment forward the Twins just kept on slipping.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Lance Lynn: 45 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 65.6% strikes

Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB

Lineup: 1-for-1 w/RISP, 2 LOB

Top three per WPA: Adrianza .230, Dozier .069, Cave .017

Download attachment: WinEx626.png

Lynn ended up failing to record an out in the sixth, loading the bases on a bunch of weak contact prior to being lifted for Ryan Pressly, who promptly walked Tim Anderson on five pitches to force home a run.

 

Later that inning, Taylor Rogers gave up a two-run single that put Chicago up 5-4. The Twins ended up using four pitchers that inning, as Alan Busenitz came in to record the third out.

 

Unfortunately, Busenitz game up a leadoff homer in the seventh and another run came across while he was on the mound in the eighth after a single, a hit by pitch, an error and another single.

 

Then Matt Belisle came in and walked in another run. And that was just the pitching!

 

Ehire Adrianza had a good night, going 2-for-3 with a homer and Brian Dozier hit his 11th home run of the season, but the offense struggled. The team combined for six hits and a walk. They only had one at bat with a runner in scoring position all night.

 

After that nightmare sixth inning that saw the White Sox take the lead, the bats combined to go 0-for-9 with four strikeouts.

 

Postgame With Molitor

AL Central Standings

CLE 43-35

MIN 34-41 (-7.5)

DET 36-44 (-8)

CHW 27-51 (-16)

KC 24-55 (-19.5)

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen627.png

Next Three Games

Wed at CHW, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. James Shields

Thu at CHW, 1:10 pm CT: TBD vs. Lucas Giolito

Fri at CHC, 4:05 pm pm CT: TBD

 

Last Three Games

MIN 2, TEX 0: La MaKKKKKKKKKKKKina

TEX 9, MIN 6: Odorizzi Lays an Egg

TEX 8, MIN 1: Circling the Drain

 

See Also

Twins Minor League Report (6/26): Thorpe Dominant, Miranda Slams

What Fernando Rodney Experience?

The Rise and Fall of Miguel Sano

 

Click here to view the article

[bighat]

Time to clean house. I think Gene Glynn would be a nice interim manager for the rest of the season.

 

Adrianza keeps this up and the Twins may be able to get a decent minor leaguer for him at the deadline.

 

Max Kepler's BA is down to .220....

 

This game really did change in that 6th inning. Twins need the next 2, or it's gonna be a long road trip.

[Vanimal46]

Keep using Belisle... He's been great since resigning with the team!

[mikelink45]

We have two series in Chicago.  If we follow recent patterns the White Sox will sweep us and then we will win the Cubs series.  This team has some odd patterns.

 

Mauer does not have his skills back - the lead off position has been a loss all year.  Our number 4 hitter is batting 188.  That tells us all we need to know this team is going no where. 

[RatherBeGolfing]

Just put me out of my misery with this team

[Number3]

Per bighat

 

"Time to clean house. I think Gene Glynn would be a nice interim manager for the rest of the season."

 

I don't know who Gene Glynn is but one more time...if Molitor remains as manager, that says all you need to know about the goals of the franchise. Those goals would not include winning baseball games. Even if firing a manager is only symbolic, it is a big part of big time (not just pro) sports and is a statement to players and fans that ownership is not happy. Not firing a manager like Molitor simply says, "What, us worry?"

[sloopjont]

"There were some good things in the first half of the game"?   Wha?

[Shaitan]

This team can't bring runners in to score. They only score on HR.

 

It's weird how RISP can vary from year to year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keep using Belisle... He's been great since resigning with the team!

Belisle is proving his versatility -- just last Friday, he showed us he could let a 3 run deficit get out of hand, and today he showed how he could keep a 3 run deficit under control.

 

And young pup Busenitz got to see one of his inherited runners allowed to score by his hero "Matty B", which I'm sure was a thrill!

[Aggies7]

This team is DEAD. Not mathematically, but realistically. How many guys on this entire roster have done their job consistently all year? 6? 7? That 6th inning last night PERFECTLY encapsulates this entire season. I'm not sure what the solution is but the status quo ain't workin'. Take away the aberration of a 20-10 August of 2017 and the club is 100-107 over the last two seasons. Sounds about right.

[Taildragger8791]

 

This team can't bring runners in to score. They only score on HR.

 

It's weird how RISP can vary from year to year.

 

I don't think it's bad luck in this case. A lineup of low average, low speed, mediocre power hitters isn't going to string enough hits together to score. We've turned into this station to station offense but don't have reliable power to drive anyone in. It's basically fluke homers, Eddie drives in Eddie, or nothing at all.

[gunnarthor]

Agree that it's long past time to jettison Molitor.

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

This team can't bring runners in to score. They only score on HR.

 

It's weird how RISP can vary from year to year.

Are you sitting down? I pulled these numbers up a couple weeks ago and was shocked. 

 

Twins 2018 MLB ranks w/RISP (pulled from FanGraphs)

AVG 6th (.262)

OBP 11th (.340)

SLG 6th (.437)

OPS 7th (.777)

wOBA 7th (.329)

wRC+ 7th (107)

 

Crazy, right? I would've bet they were in the bottom third in all those stats. The big problem has been simply getting the runners into scoring position in the first place. The Twins have 666 plate appearances w/RISP, that's the fourth lowest in baseball

[wsnydes]

 

 

Crazy, right? I would've bet they were in the bottom third in all those stats. The big problem has been simply getting the runners into scoring position in the first place. The Twins have 666 plate appearances w/RISP, that's the fourth lowest in baseball

I was going to make a small sample size quip, but you beat me to the punch in a more serious form.

 

That is quite shocking.  It's hard to believe, but I just read an article the other day about the league is on pace to have a higher strike out total than total hits for the first time in the game's history.  That puts things in context pretty well I suppose.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The big problem has been simply getting the runners into scoring position in the first place. The Twins have 666 plate appearances w/RISP, that's the fourth lowest in baseball

Yup. 24th in MLB in OBP -- and 26th for non-pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins have 666 plate appearances w/RISP, that's the fourth lowest in baseball

Number of the beast!

 

Maybe we can make some kind of "Damn Yankees" type deal? (And not the Ted Nugent one.)

[Tom Froemming]

 

Yup. 24th in MLB in OBP -- and 26th for non-pitchers.

And yet somehow they're still second in getting picked off and 13th in total outs on the bases.

[TheLeviathan]

 

And yet somehow they're still second in getting picked off and 13th in total outs on the bases.

 

We're efficient at blundering opportunities though!

[BJames]

If anyone on the Team can DH, why does Paul pencil in Morrison every day?  As much as I dislike Grossman, he's the better choice or anyone from the AAA team!  Hell, the pitchers might be a better choice.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If anyone on the Team can DH, why does Paul pencil in Morrison every day?  As much as I dislike Grossman, he's the better choice

Morrison: 11% BB%, 20.5% K%, .153 ISO, .208 BABIP, 74 wRC+

Grossman: 10.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, .114 ISO, .288 BABIP, 81 wRC+

 

Grossman is only better (marginally) if you want to bet on those BABIPs. Morrison's is about .060 under his career average, and .087 under the league non-pitcher average this year. (Grossman's is also .028 under his career average, although only .007 under the league non-pitcher average this year.)

[deanlambrecht]

Um, okay.   Gene Glynn is our third base coach.   And he seems to be particularly bad at it, so I cannot even begin to endorse bighat's notion that he should be interim manager.

 

Per bighat

 

"Time to clean house. I think Gene Glynn would be a nice interim manager for the rest of the season."

 

I don't know who Gene Glynn is but one more time...if Molitor remains as manager, that says all you need to know about the goals of the franchise. Those goals would not include winning baseball games. Even if firing a manager is only symbolic, it is a big part of big time (not just pro) sports and is a statement to players and fans that ownership is not happy. Not firing a manager like Molitor simply says, "What, us worry?"

 

[jkcarew]

 

That is quite shocking.  It's hard to believe, but I just read an article the other day about the league is on pace to have a higher strike out total than total hits for the first time in the game's history.  That puts things in context pretty well I suppose.

Yep.  Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.  As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).  This is not a trend anymore.  It's just the way the game is played now.  The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.  It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.  This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.  And this is how the player is developed.  So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.

[wsnydes]

 

Yep.  Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.  As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).  This is not a trend anymore.  It's just the way the game is played now.  The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.  It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.  This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.  And this is how the player is developed.  So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.

Yup, the game has become pretty boring in that aspect.  Even keeping score when at a game is boring because nothing happens.  It's no wonder attendance is falling.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Yep.  Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.  As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).  This is not a trend anymore.  It's just the way the game is played now.  The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.  It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.  This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.  And this is how the player is developed.  So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

[jkcarew]

 

Yup, the game has become pretty boring in that aspect.  Even keeping score when at a game is boring because nothing happens.  It's no wonder attendance is falling.

I do think this is a problem...an 'unintended' consequence, if you will, of the sabermetric revolution...although other factors probably in play, as well.

[Tom Froemming]

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. If you want a bigger sample, how about the biggest sample?

 

Per B-Ref, MLB hitters are 3,880,930-for-14,837,452 all-time. That's a .262 average. That may seem like a big difference, .262 to .246, but in reality it's only 1.6 percent.

 

For 2018 AL hitters to get up to that .262 mark, they would have needed to rack up 633 more hits than they have so far. That may seem like a lot, but AL teams have combined to play 1,185 games this season. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

Any increment that selects 1968 is going to be problematic, as that's the all-time low.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Strikeouts are WAY up. Without a corresponding rise in BABIP, that's going to lower batting averages. (And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.)

 

I think it's fair to be concerned about the rise in strikeouts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. 

I recommend using Fangraphs and selecting "NP" (non-pitchers) as the position for a better comparison.

 

Although you have to export to a spreadsheet to do your own totals for multiple years.

[djvang]

Lynn's demeanor on the mound reminds me of Ricky Nolasco. He always looks irritated and crabby.