Should the Twins be sellers?

[AZTwin]

Long ways to go. We play a lot of AL Central teams so we could bounce back but it’s clear this team is a step below the competition

 

Should we go in seller mode?

 

Could we get something decent for Dozier? Lynn? Dare I say Mauer?

[Mike Sixel]

I am leaning this way right now... They sure don't look like a team that can win a playoff series right now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It would be interesting to see if anyone in this thread was in the "sellers" camp last August. Thanks

[Mike Sixel]

I was.

[Blake]

It depends on the hitting at the trade deadline.

 

If the bats are still somnolent rather than cromulent, then yes.

[AZTwin]

Dozier could have a lot of suiters.  Mariners, Angels, Diamondbacks, Indians all seem like good fits.

 

Lynn will need to pitch well to increase his value.   Couple good starts and his history and expiring contract should be able to get something.

 

Mauer would have obvious suitors but should be a 10-5 guy and frankly should not be traded. 

 

Could Santana have some value?

 

Morrison?

 

Eduardo Escobar should be traded as well.

[wsnydes]

It would be interesting to see if anyone in this thread was in the "sellers" camp last August. Thanks

Like Mike, as was I.

 

If this were July and not the end of May, I'd sell now too. Still time to get things sorted out, but this team seems pretty dead in the water. I'm still pretty confident that Cleveland will find their groove and run away with things.

[twins_89]

The Twins are pretty much out of the wild card race and are one hot stretch from Cleveland from being out of the playoff picture altogether. I'd guess Minnesota holds off on selling in the short term, but I think there is a pretty high chance they will put multiple guys on the block before the trade deadline. 

[yarnivek1972]

6 games under .500. As bleak as things looked at times last year, the Twins low water mark was just 4 games under, occuring after losses on August 1, 3 and 5.

 

Meanwhile, the Indians have put together a good stretch and now find themselves above .500.

 

The talent is either underperforming or not performing at all.

[Twodogs]

It seems as though the Twins weaknesses have been performing well as of late, bullpen, rotation, whereas their supposed strength, their hitting, has been way way under performing as of late.  So I think you have to give them at least the month of June to see if the hitters can turn things around.  I mean I have been fairly impressed with the pitching as of late.  Any team that can pitch should be considered in the wild card push.

[Platoon]

It's too early to sell, and I doubt any buyers are either defined, or motivated at this time. Plus the division is still completely up for grabs. Btw, that's all I would work for, we ain't getting a WC spot.

[jtkoupal]

I have been tossing this around in my mind lately.

 

I think we need at least 3-4 more weeks before we can really lean too far in this direction, given the weakness of the AL Central and that we have so many game left to play in it. However, the Twins, if they do make the playoffs, don't stack up with anybody. The Indians are going to get hot sooner or later. There is too much talent there for them not to. However, the Twins have a lot of talent themselves and the division race is not over yet. 

 

Against contending teams, the Twins are 11-18. Against non-contending teams, they are 10-9. (The separation between the two categories is mostly obvious except that I have the Pirates as non-contenders, as I still project them to fade)

 

The 10-9 will improve, as the Twins have 72 games against non-contenders left. They only have 42 left with contenders, with 17 of those being against the suddenly-beatable Indians. 

 

Bottom line, there is still some hope. It doesn't look good right now, but there is still some reason for waiting it out. We play the Indians 7 more times before the end of June and have a series with them at the trade deadline. One interesting caveat here, however, is that we have a lot of division games in September, so there is a lot of potential for a hot September. However, if the deficit is too steep before that, then it doesn't matter anyway.

 

The trade deadline isn't for another 8+ weeks, but the next 4-6 weeks will really be telling. If the Twins can get back to the .500 mark and, probably necessarily, over it, then there is too good of a chance to contend. If the Twins are hovering around .500, they have to sell unless the Indians are also still meddling in mediocrity. 

 

In my next comment, I will delve more deeply into the possible moves themselves.

[jorgenswest]

Selling and buying looks the same right now.

 

They need to hope Lynn, Dozier, Morrison, Escobar, Rodney and Duke play well to the deadline. They need to keep playing them.

 

Strong play from this group adds to their trade value and the win column.

 

The last two months is enough time for any call up to get their feet wet with really no need to burn an option by sending them down.

[jtkoupal]

Let's say, hypothetically, the Twins continue to play mediocre baseball through June and July. At that point, you gotta sell. Would that really be a big deal, though? You always want to compete, but if you don't, it might work out just fine. Here's why.

 

Brian Dozier is a free agent. Let's face it, he deserves to make his money. His bat will inevitably heat up and he will be targeted in July. That would give the Twins a golden opportunity to bring Nick Gordon up and give him some playing time with Polanco, who will be back with the club by then. If that is the look of the near future, it can only help them to get some playing time down the stretch. 

 

Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke are on 1-year deals. They are not being counted on for anything past this year. There are a number of arms in Rochester right now that the Twins are counting on for big roles in the years to come. If the Twins aren't competing for anything, might as well give those innings to the kids instead of the crusty ol' vets. 

 

The Twins could potentially sell high on Eduardo Escobar. His bat has cooled off, but he has power from both sides of the plate and can be used in a super-utility role. He will have value for a contender down the stretch, whether it be Minnesota or somebody else. Since he is a free agent at the end of the year and might not stay anyway, might as well ship him.

 

Sooner or later, Lance Lynn is going to figure it out. When that happens, it's a win-win for the Twins. Nothing he has done to this point is important, really. As long as he has a stretch of good pitching leading in to the end of July, somebody will snatch him up in a heartbeat while paying a fair price. (Solid pitching is worth A LOT, ya know.) In that case, somebody like a Gonsalves or Jorge will get the chance to pitch some consistent innings in the big leagues before the pressure is back on in 2019.

 

Logan Morrison and his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark will garner some interest. You won't get a harvest, but he isn't a building block, so if the Twins falter, Morrison is out the door and someone else comes up (who that would be, however, is a question for someone smarter than me, as no obvious choices exist at the moment)

 

 

Bottom line, if the Twins are competitive, then these guys can help win ballgames for us. If not, they can help win ballgames for somebody else. 

 

It's a win-win. If we keep them, it means we're competing. If we don't, it gives the kids a chance to get their feet wet, gain some experience, and allows the Twins to add some young talent to supplement what is already in the farm and help us win in the future. We would all prefer the former, but we must all except the latter as the probable scenario (the Twins have a 16% chance to make the playoffs)

[Otto von Ballpark]

The last two months is enough time for any call up to get their feet wet with really no need to burn an option by sending them down.

I think Gordon is really the only guy for whom burning an option would be a concern, at this point. I think all of the other potential call-ups are either on the 40-man already, or old enough that it doesn't really matter (Wade, for example, would run out of options at age 27, at the absolute earliest).

 

But yeah, regardless of whether we want to sell now, I think it is hard to get good value this early.

[TheLeviathan]

Eh, baseball just doesn't work that way.  Maybe it should, but it doesn't.

 

If we are sellers, let's hope the guys we'd be selling start giving us reasons to be optimistic about the return.  Right now, I'm not sure a sell-off would garner much.

[Old Twins Cap]

If it's me, I sell on Dozier, and get anything I can on Lynn, Rodney and Reed.

 

Sorry, but Dozier is not aging well: lost a step and a half on the bases and on defense. His arm, never great, looks pathetic.

 

And Dozier, on offense, well, it is what it is-- months of drought, then, bunches of solo homers.

 

Twins got a lot out of Dozier, an unexpected gift at a time when nothing much was going well.

 

But, that's over, and so is Dozier's plus-player run. Cash in the chips while we are ahead.

 

Or, um, actually, cash the chips while we are falling behind. If possible.

[Winston Smith]

I think Mauer would be a great fit for the Rockies if he'd do it.

[Danchat]

 

Eh, baseball just doesn't work that way.  Maybe it should, but it doesn't.

 

If we are sellers, let's hope the guys we'd be selling start giving us reasons to be optimistic about the return.  Right now, I'm not sure a sell-off would garner much.

That's right, who knows if anyone will be willing to pony up prospects for Dozier or Rodney come July. It might not even be worth it to move anybody.

 

I wonder if a team would be willing to pay up for Kyle Gibson? He's had a solid season and a trading team would have a year and a half of control. With our current and 2019 rotation as it is, I would be alright moving on from him at the right price. (I'm trying to think of guys who they wouldn't be selling low on... obviously trying to move somebody like Lynn or Sano would be bad ideas at this point.)

[JustinCB]

I'm done with em. No life in this team whatsoever. The games are honestly just boring.

[beckmt]

I feel you have another 5 - 6 weeks to figure this out.  Too early to make this decision.  It will be made for us in a few weeks.  If the Indians run away, then we will be sellers outwise let it play out.

[rv78]

 I was going to say, unless Dozier gets hot other teams won't be interested but then I see the Padres traded for Hughes so I guess there is a market for just about anyone.

[goulik]

We lost shortstop to 80 game suspension, Centerfireld went down for a bit but now is back but not hitting yet, then we lost our third basemen Who's been back three games but playing first because our first baseman is out and who knows if he will ever be back and our catcher is gone for the season... All of that and were not totally buried? Yeah too soon to talk buying Or selling.

 

Give the young guys another few weeks to gel and see where we are. It's a long season and a lot can happen still.

[jokin]

 

 It's a long season and a lot can happen still.

 

Truer words have never been said. 

Good post.

[lukeduke1980]

I say trade Dozier right now and hope another team is betting on the hot streak. Gordon comes up and injects some life into this team. Get an outfielder who can play corner as part of the return so Buxton can serve AAA time.

 

2nd half team with Santana back as the leader, Polanco and Gordon up the middle, Rosey, Max, and new blood in OF, big boy at first, Carter and Lomo DH.

[diehardtwinsfan]

To answer the question... too soon to tell.

 

If they offense continues to be this bad, then yes, I'd be selling Rodney, Duke, Dozier, Santana, and Lynn.

 

No way I sell anyone with more than a year on their contract, and no way I sell on Escobar (I'd try and extend him, and would have no qualms about a QO given how well he's played).

[Thrylos]

 

Long ways to go. We play a lot of AL Central teams so we could bounce back but it’s clear this team is a step below the competition

Should we go in seller mode?

Could we get something decent for Dozier? Lynn? Dare I say Mauer?

 

I'd say that the Twins should be in retooling and not selling mode.  What do I mean with that?  Addition by subtraction.   Trade Dozier, add Gordon plus what you get for Dozier.  Trade Lynn, add May/Gonsalves/Santana plus what you get for Lynn.  Get the $ saved from those two, and maybe one of the prospects you get, add some of your prospects and get another bullpen arm.

 

But selling low on the about to start arbitration players and destroying the core, no.

 

[DocBauer]

First of all, no matter how frustrated we may be, it's not even June 1st yet and I don't feel other teams will be in buy mode just yet. And has been pointed out, some of the guys mentioned for selling purposes are injured or underperforming. You're not going to get value at this point.

 

Secondly, the Achilles heel for the Twins, for years, has been pitching. Suddenly we actually have both a solid rotation, and bullpen, with some good live arms for both at AAA that should/could help in the near future. Plus a couple coming off the DL in the next 20-30 days.

 

The strength of this team was supposed to be the offense based on potential as well as past production. There are some solid vets here, and a bunch of good-great prospects who have all shown what they are capable of. Yes, it's been a mess! Something isn't gelling right now, but hopefully will soon. (Much like last year). I don't know what spark is needed but I'm not selling now until I see a few more weeks and see if a fire can ignite.

 

I know it's cliche and already stated, but there is a lot of baseball yet to be played.

[jorgenswest]

Reading with interest.

 

I still think that buying and selling looks the same right now and through the all star break.

 

Keep playing the players in their last year of control right now.

[AZTwin]

I'd say that the Twins should be in retooling and not selling mode. What do I mean with that? Addition by subtraction. Trade Dozier, add Gordon plus what you get for Dozier. Trade Lynn, add May/Gonsalves/Santana plus what you get for Lynn. Get the $ saved from those two, and maybe one of the prospects you get, add some of your prospects and get another bullpen arm.

 

But selling low on the about to start arbitration players and destroying the core, no.

Well said and exactly what I meant. I mean these guys will be free agents so might as well get something