Article: Week in Review: Crisis of Leadership

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can ditto a lot of that, especially with the Mystery of LaMarre.  Whyohwhyohwhyohwhy is Grossman still in the lineup nearly every day, and not producing?  There have been multiple opportunities with LHP on the mound that LaMarre could have taken instead, but now he's back down in Roch, and Cave is up?  

Come on, I mean, just... come on, man!

 

Grossman OPS the last 20 games = .848. He's been producing.

 

LaMarre career AAA OPS = .718. He is who we thought he is, recent BABIP-driven hot streak not withstanding.

[ThejacKmp]

 

A well thought out and well written article Nick, but personally, I feel a bit pessimistic. Yes, the Twins are only 19-23 and absolutely missing opportunities and performing inconsistently at times, I'll be the dead horse beater yet again, but I predicted they'd be around .500 the first couple of months before taking off and playing much better ball. My theory was based on 2 factors:



I like the FO and most everything they've done, even if all moves haven't worked out. But there were 4 things I felt were an obvious MUST before the season began. They needed a middle INF for Rochester, at least, for depth to protect against Adrianza regression and to not rush Gordon. (This before the Polanco suspension but became heightened after.) They also needed the very best AAAA 3B they could find to protect Sano's recovery, and help free up Escobar. They needed a solid RH corner OF to challenge/compete with Grossman. (Didn't have to play CF with Rosario, Kepler and Granite around). And they needed a 3rd catcher who could play a bit once they parted ways with Giminez.


 

 

1.) Most team's third catcher is Bobby Wilson. That's just the nature of catching.

 

2.) What RH OF should they have found? Go look at the free agents signed - none of them are any good. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he's not been great. Also, they never even had a shot at Gomez because they were offering a 4th OF position while Tampa was offering him a starting job. It's easy to complain the Twins should upgrade Grossman but hard to find the actual upgrade (before the season, the deadline is definitely easier to do that).

 

3 and 4.) Escobar was the backup plan for Sano and middle infield. Then Polanco got suspended. Hard to see where they should have been looking - you can't just find capable middle infield players when someone gets suspended 2 weeks before the season. Adrianza has not been great but he's been acceptable. Once Sano comes back, Escobar will play a decent amount of SS and the Twins will be okay. Adrianza has been overmatched as an everyday SS but that's the nature of injuries.

 

 

[Number3]

All of this analysis is pointless. Twins will hang around the .500 mark and will be competitive with most of the rest of MLB which is mediocre just like the Twins are. Just enjoy the Tigers series for what it is; a team with the Twins' prior manager 1 game behind them in the standings. Buxton and Sano will not have long careers . They will both remain injury prone and will never be so called professional hitters. Dozier will never be a situational hitter and treats every ab the same. He hits more home runs than his position warrants because that is all he thinks about. Mauer is done whether he plays or not. Twins will hang around the central simply because they are able to field a decent enough team for a weak division no matter who they send out there and as long as pitching remains at least average which it is now.

The 7 games against the Indians from end May to mid June will tell the story whether they have a shot at the Central or not. No more complicated than that.

[ashbury]

Funny how TD used to rail against TR FO for not following analytics. Now we're back to the "hot bat" theory and want the Flavine FO to react to recent results rather than long-term data.

Without doing the necessary research I'm going to guess that this is different people saying different things at different times.

 

Opinions will always vary.

[Jham]

Despite all the good points in this reflection, I am really most happy to have the LaMarre question. He hit here, he is hitting in the minors. He has been better than Grossman. We sent him down and he continues to be hot so then we call up Cave. Now Cave might be good, but what more does LaMarre need to do and why aren't we riding the hot bat?

Move to catcher.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Without doing the necessary research I'm going to guess that this is different people saying different things at different times.

 

Opinions will always vary.

 

Yeah, I guess I'm talking more in general than specific people. The general tone in the TR era felt like "Why do we go with Old Baseball Truths and hunches" and the general tone now feels like "These guys are too smart for their own good."

 

My hypothesis is that we like to complain no matter what.

[ashbury]

Yeah, I guess I'm talking more in general than specific people. The general tone in the TR era felt like "Why do we go with Old Baseball Truths and hunches" and the general tone now feels like "These guys are too smart for their own good."

 

My hypothesis is that we like to complain no matter what.

More likely, when TR was replaced, the faction lobbying for his removal no longer needed to continue that message, and a different faction has their opinions on the new team. You can't judge by posting volume, pro or con.

 

Someone will always have a different approach to offer than the current one. Lumping everyone together into "we" clouds that.

 

Best would be to rebut those opinions you disagree with, rather than focus on the people.

[Loosey]

 

His career OPS by month:

 

April - .464

May - .600

June .546

July .739

August .818

September .853

 

I don't consider dreadful numbers for half of a season to be a "slow starter".  The problems go well beyond that and the "slow starting" narrative really needs to end.  

My concern with Buxton is he is a too much of a "feel" player.  When he feels his swing he is great.  When he doesn't he is dreadful.  Finding a consistent swing mechanic is key to him having any success.  He can't just keep heading out there for months until he finds his swing each year.  If he hasn't found a consistent mechanics that work at this point in his career, there a valid concerns.  The constant tinkering and adjusting need to be done in February, if at all.

[mikelink45]

 

See I feel positive.

 

• Dozier is bound to get hot. He's just up and down,
• Sano will be back and since he's taking at-bats from Grossman/Cave, he doesn't need to be that good.
• Buxton will get it going. Maybe not MVP style but he's just shaking off the rust of a long absence.
• Kepler and Rosario look really good.
• Castro went down but Garver is a better bat anyways. It'll be great when the Twins get healthy and he's batting 8th
• Your angst on Morrison is crazy - he had a bad start but he's consistently been an above average hitter and he's raking it now. A very nice piece.
• The rotation outside of Lance Lynn has been great. Odorizzi is underrated, Berrios/Romero show flashes of dominance, Gibby is backing up last season with a few duds.
• Lance Lynn has 2-4 more starts to figure it out and then May/Santana will replace him. Lynn is better than this but there's an expiration date so either way the Twins should be okay.
• The pen has stabilized. There isn't anyone shutdown outside of Reed but it's a deep group that should get better with May/Lynn entering at some point.

The Twins have had just about everything go wrong that could and they're still only 2.5 back of an Indians club that just doesn't look as good as people thought. That's great, things are bound to get better for the Twinkies as they get more games against the division.

I appreciate your optimism. I just do not have that same sense.  Your list of expectations is quite long.  One or two I see.  We are in the hunt because we are in a lousy division, but while I will continue to follow the Twins with hope, too, I am not there right now. 

 

Logan Morrison has averaged less that 0.5 WAR per year, he is not a great hitter and I am not enthusiastic about him.  I do prefer him to Grossman.  

 

My hope comes with everyone we promote from the minors, but in the mean time, I want your enthusiasm to be the storyline for the rest of the year. 

[birddog]

Great article, Nick. I agreed with everything including Dozier and Buxton in top 5 of MVP vote. And I agree with almost every opinion, and that's what makes this year's Twins so frustrating is that there are so many things that need to be fixed. Morrison getting picked off 2nd summarizes so much. A rookie mistake made by a veteran shows they are all trying to do too much which is the problem. Hard to believe we can't beat the shifts teams are putting on us when we have half the field open but yet we hit right at them. Do we not work on going the other way?

 

Like it or not, this is the team that Sano and Buxton built and when at least one of them is not producing  we are not nearly as good. They have so much talent that everyone looks to them to be leaders, but it is tough to show leadership when you are playing poorly. Not sure why Buxton doesn't bunt at least once a game when he is struggling so bad which will force him to see the ball much better. Sano will be mediocre to decent until he learns to use the whole field, but that lack of discipline is what is also making him injury prone and overweight. I'm afraid that he will not get it until he is traded or released.

 

Yes, it is a long season and we will get better soon after Buxton is over his first half funk or Sano heats up, but if this team can't play good baseball for 162 games we will only be wild card contenders. Dropping Hughes and demoting Lynn to the bullpen is the first option I would try to spark this team. As mentioned we have way too many bats that need replacing before we can truly be considered division contenders or even dream about the World Series. Most of us were in awe of the moves the front office made before the season. Yes, some of those moves have failed, but I have confidence that Falvine will make the right moves to improve this roster.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

the "hot bat" theory

What do you mean by "hot bat" theory? What's wrong with playing guys who are hitting well and sitting guys who need a break?

[Blackjack]

Nice review Nick!!! Thanks!!!

 

Until Buxton and Sano learn to stay healthy and produce for a lengthy period of time (is a season or two too much to ask?), they're going to remain over-hyped prospects. Tantalizing but frustrating. 

 

Dozier is determining his own fate as far as resigning with the Twins. Good when hes hot but not worth a long term contract.

 

Same with Joe Mauer, this injury could push him out the door. Personally, I think with two small kids and plenty of money in the bank, he should retire. Is the possibility of a World Series worth being a Jim Mcmahon later in life??

 

Lynn was a good signing but he just hasn't worked out. It would be nice if he would have few good starts to up his trade value but the good thing is that the Twins have other starting pitching options.

 

I just hope the Twins stay close to .500 so they're interesting to watch. Another long losing streak and they're going to become irrelevant.

[Mike Sixel]

Lynn was not a bad signing, not sure it was good. With Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, and Mejia all available, and May coming back, it would be handy to have guys with options. And Santana will be back. The staff is filled with older players without options. When people talk about the dodgers using depth... The dodgers have some guys with options they can move around. That, to me, was the bad part about signing Lynn.

 

I never wanted Lamarre on the roster. He's never been good, and probably never will be. I have no issue with Cave being up, other than it proves being left handed has nothing to do with Wade not coming up earlier.

 

The front office has some some good things, and same real head scratcher things. I'm not convinced on them one way or the other yet.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Also, I am VERY concerned that Mauer may have already played his last baseball game. 

 

When diving for a ground ball carries a risk of relapse (however small), he is likely going to take a (justified) long hard look at his future. 

 

Balance issues and sensitivity to light WAY more concerning than a refractory headaches and neck pain.

 

Very much hope that I'm overreacting

For what it's worth, Jim Souhan seems to have similar concerns: http://www.startribune.com/joe-mauer-s-latest-10-day-dl-could-be-troubling/483137561/

 

Obviously it's in his interest as a columnist to stir people up and exaggerate situations -- and we all know his history of writing about Mauer -- but Souhan is plugged in enough that his sense of alarm here makes me feel even more uneasy.
 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd certainly retire at this point. Having a functioning brain is was more important than whyever one would stay.

[Vanimal46]

We're seeing that life without Buxton and Sano in the lineup producing isn't going to work long term.

 

The pitching (minus Lynn) has held up their end of the bargain. This team needs both of them back and contributing otherwise they are going no where.

[Doubles]

 

Last year, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton ranked first and second among Twins players in WAR. They were driving forces in the team's playoff push and, with a better supporting cast in place, expected to help propel another step forward for Minnesota in 2018.

Instead, they've become posterchildren for a disappointing club that cannot stop tripping over itself at every turn.

 

--------

Nick, that is an undeserved cheap shot. 

 

Dozier is a team leader, Buck has been hurt. And as for leadership... Nobody wrote about a crisis when the team won 7 of 8. As for leadership, the "Leader" won manager of the year just a few months ago. And nobody can say Dozier or Buck is playing lazy. So pullleeeze. This is the reason some of us get surly when we read gloom and doom pieces. Doze and Buck are playing hard and unless you got a story about them being paycheck players alluvasudden, don't say they ain't leaders. You aren't there. You don't really know. You think you do, but you don't know.  

 

 Twins will be fine. .500 is well achievable before the All Star break and they can get hot like anybody else. Lighten up Francis. 

In a 'Week in Review' column in which the Twins went 2-4 / -21, and when your heroes go a combined 3-for-37, I don't wanna read a feel-good story or a cheerleader piece.  Those numbers are what they are, and Nick cited them.  Much the same way he'd credit Dozier & Buxton for going 18-for-37, with 5 dingers, 6 steals, and 3 GWRBIs when that happens.  The facts is what they is.

[Shaitan]

Clearly they just need to reacquire the leadership of Chris Giminez.

 

I'm honestly not sure if this is a joke or a serious post.

[Shaitan]

 

I think you are. The Twins were smart to give him 10 days to get fully recovered. I imagine he'll be itching to get back before that is half up.

 

This reminds me of the bilateral leg weakness coverage again. A technically accurate description of an injury, but also one that warrants some overanalysis.

[gil4]

 

You know, it’s okay to be wrong.

There's wrong and then there's WRONG. 

 

[bird]

 

The Washingon Nationals also have injuries....

 

But they chose to use it as an opportunity to bring up their young(er) talent (19 y/o)that was producing in AA (Hey Twinkies, sound familiar?)  

 

I'm not disappointed by that the Twins FO took a flyer on Lynn and the injuries are not their fault obviously.

 

They ARE responsible for how the react to problems, and that currently leaves A LOT to be desired. 

 

Let the young talent that will be part of the next championship push start getting reps (with all due respect to Grossman, Lynn, Petit, Adrianza, and Cave, they are definitely NOT part of that future push)

 

To Gordon, Wade (when healthy), and Gonslaves, welcome, we've been waiting.   To Petit, Grossman, and Lynn, thank you for your service.

 

It's Time

 

 

While I get your point, I have a slightly different viewpoint. The Twins should be and are in a "win now" mode. It hasn't gone well so far. The assessment by the FO was and is reasonable:

 

They have an abundance of reserve outfielders. Grossman was probably the best option among them to start the season, especially with Granite sidelined. He's been worse than expected, but who would've predicted LaMarre having a sustained level of performance in MLB? Wade may be part of "the future push" but right now, they can win with any one of Cave, LaMarre, Grossman, or Granite as long as the starters are healthy and playing most days.

 

They had a shortage of clearly reliable back end starters at the beginning of the season, especially because Mejia was ineffective, Hughes was abysmal, Duffey looked lost, May was hurt, Gonsalves and Slegers were borderline in terms of readiness, and Gibby is Gibby. (Who am I missing?) Lynn looked like a logical addition. He's been worse than expected. Fortunately, Romero looks to be a "win now" alternative, and maybe both Slegers and Gonsalves will prove to be as well, but I think it was logical to go with Lynn over the guys in AAA to start the season. Hughes. Bad decision, I'd have sent him into retirement.

 

Like others, I don't view pitching as a likely problem area as the season moves along, even if the FO putzes and sticks with Lynn awhile longer. But that view is contingent on a successful return of May and/or Santana and acceptable if uneven performances from Over Easy, Berrios, Romero, and even Gibby. I'm not as convinced that a "win now" goal is helped all that much by substituting Slegers or Gonsalves for any of those six, and you're asking a lot from three or four rookie pitchers to get you a division title. I can see why they're being patient and hoping for Lynn to figure it out here, much as I'd prefer to see Gonsalves or Slegers on the mound.

 

If Sano is healthy and producing, I don't think we care much at all about letting Gordon prove himself over a full season in the minor leagues. Remember, people were kinda writing him off after his second half last year and only recently are back on his bandwagon. Adrianza is a perfectly acceptable utility guy and a perfectly horrifying starting SS. Escobar is fine at short until Polanco comes back. Maybe Dozier gets moved and we see Gordon at the deadline?

 

Back to Nick's point though, which is that this team needs to get production from the players who are already up here and regarded as critical to the "win now" objective. If Buxton and Sano don't produce, this team is not good enough to make the playoffs, IMO. If they do produce, it's an entirely different team.

[bird]

 

I'd certainly retire at this point. Having a functioning brain is was more important than whyever one would stay.

 

Whose experience are you basing this on?

 

Kidding Mike. Kidding.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Leadership in this clubhouse could be a very compelling topic of discussion. 

 

How fair is it to appoint Buxton as a leader, since he's still pretty young hasn't produced over a full season yet? How fortunate are the Twins to have guys like Rosario, Kepler and Escobar to stand in while Buxton and Sano struggle or rehab? Is it even necessary for Sano to be a standout for this team to compete for a title? (I doubt it--the Twins would do fine without him.) Was it really wise for the Twins to sign Lynn? Did Lynn really have no other offers? What do we draw from that, and what does bringing a guy like that into the clubhouse do for the chemistry of the team and the current clubhouse leaders? 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Leadership in this clubhouse could be a very compelling topic of discussion. 

 

How fair is it to appoint Buxton as a leader, since he's still pretty young hasn't produced over a full season yet? How fortunate are the Twins to have guys like Rosario, Kepler and Escobar to stand in while Buxton and Sano struggle or rehab? Is it even necessary for Sano to be a standout for this team to compete for a title? (I doubt it--the Twins would do fine without him.) Was it really wise for the Twins to sign Lynn? Did Lynn really have no other offers? What do we draw from that, and what does bringing a guy like that into the clubhouse do for the chemistry of the team and the current clubhouse leaders? 

 

Buxton doesn't have to be a clubhouse leader, but this offense does need him to lead by being a dynamic force at the plate and on the bases. There is way too much swing-and-miss station-to-station hitting in the lineup without him. Nobody else has the ability to pressure the other team like he can when he's going right.

[Thrylos]

 

I can ditto a lot of that, especially with the Mystery of LaMarre.  Whyohwhyohwhyohwhy is Grossman still in the lineup nearly every day, and not producing?  There have been multiple opportunities with LHP on the mound that LaMarre could have taken instead, but now he's back down in Roch, and Cave is up?  

Come on, I mean, just... come on, man!

 

LaMarre was optioned when Buxton was activated.  There is a rule that says that a player has to stay down for at least 10 games before recalled.  Thus Cave and no LaMarre when Mauer was moved to the DL.

[USAFChief]

 

LaMarre was optioned when Buxton was activated.  There is a rule that says that a player has to stay down for at least 10 games before recalled.  Thus Cave and no LaMarre when Mauer was moved to the DL.

An injury resulting in DL time negates that rule, no?

[Thrylos]

 

My concern with Buxton is he is a too much of a "feel" player.  When he feels his swing he is great.  When he doesn't he is dreadful.  Finding a consistent swing mechanic is key to him having any success.  He can't just keep heading out there for months until he finds his swing each year.  If he hasn't found a consistent mechanics that work at this point in his career, there a valid concerns.  The constant tinkering and adjusting need to be done in February, if at all.

 

March.  

 

A couple of thoughts:  Everyone last season said that it was the leg kick.  I guess they were wrong.  In an interview with the MLB  Network, when Buxton was asked what he values the most personally: a great catch or a game winning home run, he said "the catch".  Unless he changes his mind and works on what he does not like to work (apparently) or likes less to work on, he will not improve with the bat.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Thrylos

[Danchat]

 

An injury resulting in DL time negates that rule, no?

Yes, you are correct. I assume the Twins wanted to give Cave a cup of coffee as I thought Mauer might only miss 10 games... if that's still the case. It's also possible they keep Petit when Sano is activated within the next week and option Cave down to AAA.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Washingon Nationals also have injuries....

 

But they chose to use it as an opportunity to bring up their young(er) talent (19 y/o)that was producing in AA (Hey Twinkies, sound familiar?)  

 

I'm not disappointed by that the Twins FO took a flyer on Lynn and the injuries are not their fault obviously.

 

They ARE responsible for how the react to problems, and that currently leaves A LOT to be desired. 

 

Let the young talent that will be part of the next championship push start getting reps (with all due respect to Grossman, Lynn, Petit, Adrianza, and Cave, they are definitely NOT part of that future push)

 

To Gordon, Wade (when healthy), and Gonslaves, welcome, we've been waiting.   To Petit, Grossman, and Lynn, thank you for your service.

 

It's Time

 

Not disagreeing but the it should be pointed out that the Nationals have a lot of injuries and a couple of recent long term injuries to the OF with Eaton and Kendrick both being placed on the 60 Day DL. 

 

As a result Soto is probably up to stay. If those injuries don't occur, Soto could hit .500 in AA and still not get a roster spot. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

What do you mean by "hot bat" theory? What's wrong with playing guys who are hitting well and sitting guys who need a break?

 

The issue is the oft-cited concept that Ryan Lamarre's past should not matter much because he has a "hot bat" and thus deserves a call-up more than Jake Cave - a guy with a better track record and who is four years younger. When you drill down the analytics show that the BABIP is massive and unlikely to continue but that doesn't matter -- he has a hot bat.

 

It's weird because it feels like a phrase Gardenhire would say but it's relatively meaningless. Recent performance is less predictive of overall success than long-term historical performance.

 

I don't think it's a big deal in day-to-day lineup construction but overall, it seems like a myth.