Article: Blackmon's Deal With Rockies Sets Precedent For Dozier

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Good stuff. Clearly long term deals are not dead yet! I don't know what I'd do if I was them.

I'll wait and second-guess when the answer is obvious

[slash129]

 

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

 

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

 

Plus CF vs 2B

 

Is the team better in 2018 with Gordon at 2B and an additional 20M to spend on a FA, especially given Santana is gone next year?  It really becomes a bad idea if Lewis sticks at SS. Polanco to 2B, Lewis at SS and 20M to spend on FAs 2019-2022.

 

I love Dozier but let him go. Take the money coming off the books next year and lock up some of our core. If you get those guys locked up, we have some great additions in the wings. Romero and Gonsalves are close and Graterol is probably not far off either. Thorpe and Mejia add depth and Thorpe is a good candidate to jump up on prospects lists.

 

Let's maintain the ability to keep the core around instead of spending the money required to keep them on players likely to decline. Let's lock some guys up next year on contract that won't require us to go to age 35 or 36.

 

You need to remember the Coors Field effect on numbers. Career twilight batting titles from former Twins with 270ish BA should make that easy to remember.

 

Let's get rid of our best player and assume Low A prospects will replace the output.

 

Sounds like a solid plan for winning.

 

Don't quit your day job ... Closet GM isn't your calling.

[B Good]

 

Not.Even.Close.

 

If Dozier ever hits .331/.399/.601 like Blackmon did last season, then he might have a case.

 

Otherwise he better keep continuing the whining regarding rookies bunting against the shift...

Blackmon slashed .391/.466/.773 at home last year versus .276/.337/.447 on the road.  I'm thinking there may be a Coors Field Effect in the numbers you're supplying. 

[Major League Ready]

Another year of evaluating the potential replacements will put the team in a better position to determine what to do about Dozier at the end of this year. We would also have to pay him top dollar and 5 years to sign him now. There is no upside of signing the deal now.

 

I would think they will also have a much better idea of the likelihood of Lewis sticking at SS. This is no small part of the decision. This team has a number of prospects that could (probably should) continue to elevate this team for the next few years. We don't need a Jacoby Ellsbury scenario of our own.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[slash129]

 

Another year of evaluating the potential replacements will put the team in a better position to determine what to do about Dozier at the end of this year. We would also have to pay him top dollar and 5 years to sign him now. There is no upside of signing the deal now.

 

I would think they will also have a much better idea of the likelihood of Lewis sticking at SS. This is no small part of the decision. This team has a number of prospects that could (probably should) continue to elevate this team for the next few years. We don't need a Jacoby Ellsbury scenario of our own.

 

Gordon .... Ooooohhh

 

Lewis ... Aaaaahhhh

 

Toys in unopened, never seen condition .... They have soooo much value.

 

I can't wait to get rid of my keystone combo in 2019.  They are only combining for 368/404/894 w/ 5 HR 12 Runs and 9 RBI through 5 games.

[TheLeviathan]

No one should be eager to see Dozier go because of prospects we have.

 

But we also shouldn't be eager to give a middle infielder his age any contract over three years either.  

 

Dozier being a late bloomer has put this decision in an awkward spot, but I think cooler heads will determine that any long-term investment is likely a mistake.

[slash129]

 

 We don't need a Jacoby Ellsbury scenario of our own.

 

That's pretty disrespectful.  You're using a player who had an anomaly year in 2011 (where he gained over 25% of his career WAR) and has otherwise been an other-than-dependable, injury-prone mess as a comp for reasoning not to sign someone who does almost the opposite and has been a productive rock for 5 years straight.

 

Lame.

[Dantes929]

Not sure if I am reading it properly but I think Fangraphs has his value to date a little better than 160 mil and the Twins have paid him 12 million.   Keep in mind that if he has a great 2018 he will be a great value at 9 mil.   I compare it to when we could have had Santana for one more year at 13 mil.   That is a nice asset to have even if it is short term.   We make a qualifying offer and also get a good draft pick.    Though I don't think the Twins have much of a moral obligation to reward Dozier I think a 3 year offer at 75 mil or even 80 mil would be digestible with the knowledge that even if he is a bust at some point we have already gotten value from him.     What I like least about free agency is rewarding players for great years they have had with someone else.    5 years is too much and if he can get it elsewhere for more dollars more power to him.

[gil4]

 

Honestly, I don't get the Rockies making this deal but that's not unusual; I don't understand loads of things the Rockies do.

My first thought when I heard about that deal was "There is no way he will be worth that." My second thought was "That's the Rockies being the Rockies." 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier. Dozier. The Twins had the chance to make a longer-range decision on Brian that might've extended him two years beyond today in the off-season before last. They could've dangled something, anything....but not sure what this off-season. 

I see this being said on the forums somewhat regularly but what on earth makes people think this would have been the case?

 

When Dozier was just emerging as a star player, he turned down a lot of guaranteed money by refusing to sign off even one of his free agent seasons (probably $15m-ish a season for one or two seasons).

 

And now people believe that after he established himself and came closer to huge guaranteed money in free agency, he was suddenly willing to sell off just two of his free agent seasons? It doesn't make sense at all.

 

Sure, if the Twins approached Dozier two years ago and offered him $15-18m per season for four seasons of free agency, he probably signs at the dotted line... but that deal isn't much different than what he'll ask for this offseason so there isn't anything to be gained.

[gil4]

 

I'll wait and second-guess when the answer is obvious

I'm with you. With the Rockies/Blackmon I'm not going to wait, however. The likelihood of that deal crashing and burning is just too high.

[nicksaviking]

From a player's standpoint I can see this deal being a benchmark.

 

But this is the Rockies, the team that gave Ian Desmond $70M to play a position he's never played and re-signed Carlos Gonzalez to an above market price and have no room for him. I don't think any clubs are going model their system after the Rockies.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm with you. With the Rockies/Blackmon I'm not going to wait, however. The likelihood of that deal crashing and burning is just too high.

Yeah, I think this contract has "mini Jacoby Ellsbury" written all over it.

 

And I actually laughed out loud at that contract when it was given.

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

 

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

 

Plus CF vs 2B

 

Is the team better in 2018 with Gordon at 2B and an additional 20M to spend on a FA, especially given Santana is gone next year? It really becomes a bad idea if Lewis sticks at SS. Polanco to 2B, Lewis at SS and 20M to spend on FAs 2019-2022.

 

I love Dozier but let him go. Take the money coming off the books next year and lock up some of our core. If you get those guys locked up, we have some great additions in the wings. Romero and Gonsalves are close and Graterol is probably not far off either. Thorpe and Mejia add depth and Thorpe is a good candidate to jump up on prospects lists.

 

Let's maintain the ability to keep the core around instead of spending the money required to keep them on players likely to decline. Let's lock some guys up next year on contract that won't require us to go to age 35 or 36.

Why OPS? Because I like WAR....

 

No place did I say they should sign him, I merely replied he's been better overall, not in one bad stat, for three of the last for years.

[bean5302]

1. Blackmon is the fan favorite (over Arenado) so there is value retaining him.

2. The Rockies need some stability in the outfield so there's organizational need.

3. Blackmon is the 14th ranked player in WAR over the past two seasons (he's expensive)

4. The Rockies easily have payroll capacity, despite the cheapskate owners.

 

There is no evidence of re-valuing of free agents happening. Just evidence mediocre to below average free agents aren't going to get massive contracts just because they're the best free agents on the market.

 

1. Brian Dozier is among many other fan favorites.

2. The Twins do not have a need for 2B depth.

3. Dozier is the 13th ranked player in WAR over the past two years (he's be expensive)

4. The Twins do not have the payroll capacity to keep potential up and coming superstars like Buxton and Berrios along with aging, long contract, high priced veterans.

 

Dozier is going to command a $100M+ contract if he puts up another year like his last two. It's going to be a 5+ (probably 5) year deal at an AAV of more than $20M. There just isn't an obvious need to keep Dozier and there are better places for the Twins to spend their money which is why the Twins haven't wasted their time or Dozier's time on an extension. Dozier is not going to be in a Minnesota Twins uniform next year barring some Twilight Zone stuff.

[nokomismod]

I kind of have to hold my nose with Dozier. When one of the better players on your favorite team annoys you often, it makes it hurt less when they move on.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If he wants to do something similar for half the years, I'm interested.  

 

I'd give him 3/65 even.  But anything over 3 years and I'm out unless it's a full team option.

I think this is right about where I stand. And I could see it making sense for Dozier, especially if the young nucleus takes a step forward this year. Three more well-paid seasons with a strong contender, then a shot at another free agency payday at age 34.

 

My concern is that he's going to push for more player-option years on top of the first three, like Blackmon has. And I have serious reservations about such a deal.

[Nick Nelson]

 

There is no evidence of re-valuing of free agents happening. Just evidence mediocre to below average free agents aren't going to get massive contracts just because they're the best free agents on the market.

That's not really an accurate description of the offseason that just played out. Plenty of players who are above average got contracts much smaller than any previous norm. Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison are pretty clear evidence of a re-valuing of free agents across the league.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

 

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

This is why you never use basic rate stats for players who play in Colorado.

 

Blackmon career home OPS: .972

Blackmon career road OPS: .750

 

Dozier career home OPS: .802

Dozier career road OPS: .765

 

Blackmon 2017 home OPS: 1.239

Blackmon 2017 road OPS: .784

 

Dozier 2017 home OPS: .916 

Dozier 2017 road OPS: .800

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueZ6tvqhk8U

[Tecmo]

The Rockies had to make that deal, even if they likely won't like the deal toward the end. Blackmon is one of their most popular players, they don't have a ready replacement like the Twins do for Dozier and, most importantly, they need to show this kind of commitment if they want to get Arenado signed to a long term deal. Get those two locked up and they're in good shape to be competitive for the next few years.

 

They definitely make some odd decisions (that Desmond deal is completely stupid) but I don't think this is one. As a fan (they're my second team since I live in Denver now) it's nice to finally see some commitment to at least try to win.

[Thrylos]

 

Blackmon slashed .391/.466/.773 at home last year versus .276/.337/.447 on the road.  I'm thinking there may be a Coors Field Effect in the numbers you're supplying. 

 

Players do tend to hit better at home.  At some point that factor has to be deducted from the alleged "Coors Field Effect".  FWIW the Coors Field park factor is 115 (TF is 103 btw).  So take 15% off his home slash line (actually only 15% of the hitting for the OBP because a walk is a walk) and becomes a park neutral .342/.407/.657 that is still pretty monstrous.  He has been successful at Coors field and that's where he is playing and paid to play

 

You got to compare his contract to those of the other outffielders and not of second basemen.  His $AAV is below Trout, Cespedes, Heyward, Stanton, JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury contracts.   And only Cano's as far as second basemen go.  For a good reason:  Every failed with the glove SS (just like the current Twins' second baseman) can play second base and not many can play centerfield.

 

Pedroia is making about $15M AAV, Murphy $12 and Kinzler was at $11M last season.  And that was before the prices dropped.  Those numbers are the absolute max that Dozier will be looking at for about 3 years or so.

 

An aging CF can move to a corner position or first base if he cannot play his position.  A short aging 2B can only move to DH if he cannot play his...

 

Apples with apples.

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Thrylos

[Cap'n Piranha]

This is why you never use basic rate stats for players who play in Colorado.

 

Blackmon career home OPS: .972

Blackmon career road OPS: .750

 

Dozier career home OPS: .802

Dozier career road OPS: .765

 

Blackmon 2017 home OPS: 1.239

Blackmon 2017 road OPS: .784

 

Dozier 2017 home OPS: .916

Dozier 2017 road OPS: .800

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueZ6tvqhk8U

So what you’re telling me here is that Dozier is ever so slightly better than Blackmon when Coors is not a factor, but Blackmon is massively better when it is.

 

Unless the Rockies plan to relocate out of the mountains, or if we’re now saying replacement level players can OPS .1000 at Coors, why should it matter if the Rockies take the Coors Effect into consideration, given that, you know, they play half their games there.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd do a three year deal for sure. Beyond that? Depends on a lot of factors.

 

I don't see them signing a top pitcher this coming off season, given the competition and the list (which isn't great for pitchers). So, they don't really need the money next year at least.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So what you’re telling me here is that Dozier is ever so slightly better than Blackmon when Coors is not a factor, but Blackmon is massively better when it is.

Unless the Rockies plan to relocate out of the mountains, or if we’re now saying replacement level players can OPS .1000 at Coors, why should it matter if the Rockies take the Coors Effect into consideration, given that, you know, they play half their games there.

The point is that everyone is a lot better in Coors, which makes the number misleading. If you adjust for park in any way, Blackmon's numbers are a lot closer to Dozier.

 

Past three seasons:

 

Dozier oWAR: 3.2, 6.0, 4.9

Blackmon oWAR: 3.2, 4.8, 6.5

 

Dozier OPS+: 104, 134, 126

Blackmon OPS+: 102, 130, 141

 

Those players don't look terribly different from one another, do they?

 

Everyone here understands the Coors Field effect, right? Surely you don't all look at a +.450 OPS home/road split and say to yourselves "yeah, that's legit".

[Halsey Hall]

Sounds like he should sign with the Rockies.

[bean5302]

 

That's not really an accurate description of the offseason that just played out. Plenty of players who are above average got contracts much smaller than any previous norm. Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison are pretty clear evidence of a re-valuing of free agents across the league.

 

I can't agree with your opinion here. Lynn and Morrison have serious issues for any team to consider. Quite frankly, I see Lynn as a potential upside player, but not a guy I'd want on a long term contract. Lynn with either have a big bounce back or be a back end rotation arm for another year or two before he's out of baseball.

 

Morrison is replacement level. Sorry. He's got absolutely no track record of anything other than 1/2 of last year. A guy comes out of nowhere at age 30 and his game completely changes? Doesn't happen. Morrison slashed .231/.333/.452 OPS .786 in the second half last year (right around his career average).

 

The free agent tracker shows a lot of significant to very large contracts were given to players whose likelihood of delivering long term value is dubious at best http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

 

Darvish, Martinez and Hosmer are all arguably 3 WAR players with 5+ year, nine figure contracts. Each of them have major arguments against their value and they were the absolute cream of the crop of free agents. Dozier and Blackmon are in an utterly different league.

 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

Morrison is replacement level. Sorry. He's got absolutely no track record of anything other than 1/2 of last year.

 

Not quite.  LaMarre is replacement level

 

Morrison has a career 5.6 fWAR in 864 games before this season.  This is about 1 fWAR per 150 games, or, in other words, one win above replacement, which is not superstar level, but it is not replacement level....

[lukeduke1980]

I don't think the Blackmon deal was too bad except that the last 2 years were player options.  If they were team options or vesting options I'd go for something similar for Dozier

[jimmer]

Fangrapghs gives us categories for WAR

 

0-1 WAR: scrub

1-2 WAR: role player

2-3 WAR: solid player

3-4 WAR: good player

4-5 WAR: all star

5-6 WAR: superstar

6+ WAR: MVP type.

 

I am sure there is some wiggle room there, but it's a decent place to start a discussion when talking about where a player stands with a certain average WAR.

[Mike Sixel]

Query:

 

For a team on a budget, why is a 3 year, 75MM deal, better than a 5 year 85MM deal? Isn't stretching the money out better? Especially if you are willing to cut him after three years if he's bad? You were able to afford another player in teh first three years this way, right?

 

edit: those numbers are examples, btw. If you are pedantic about the numbers, I did a bad job of communicating the actual point...

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mike Sixel