Article: Lance Lynn to the Twins?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I consider Gibson almost a no doubter. Sanchez has the smell of that seasoned vet that is given too many chances for seemingly no reason at all.

However I think there is a (small) chance that Sanchez surprises us. The upside is more of the Colon level of surprise of 'this guy isn't actually terrible' though.

I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes).

 

He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly.

 

But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound.

 

I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.

[Dantes929]

Santana should only be out for around 1/6 of the season.    There was some analysis about his use of the slider that explained his success last year but even with regression he should be pretty good.    Odorizzi should give us what Gibson gave us the last half of last year.   I expect at least the same from Gibson as last year but last year he was our 3rd best and if our third best becomes our 4th best that is a good thing.   I don't know how  Meija had a 4.5 ERA last year which is the same as Hughes career ERA.   I don't know how he doesn't end up in the top 5 on the depth charts.   Either way the improvement should be in the middle to back end and there should be improvement.   

[Mr. Brooks]

Apologies if I missed this reported around here:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/placing-the-remaining-top-50-free-agents.html

 

 

That's a completely laughable offer.

Yet, we're told it's ridiculous to suggest that they knowingly offered Darvish a contract they knew he wouldn't accept.

[Vanimal46]

Why even bother filling out the paperwork for an offer that low?

[Brandon]

That's a completely laughable offer.

Yet, we're told it's ridiculous to suggest that they knowingly offered Darvish a contract they knew he wouldn't accept.

Both offers were low ball offers. In Darvish case it was still over 100 million. I know now is the time to be shopping but i would hope the Twins would know the market a little better then that. While Logan is getting 0 interest. There is atleast interest in signing the thre remaining pitchers. I would think a 1 year 13-14 million with 1 or 2 million incentives should be an offer that can land one.

 

I may wait a week or two before offering to see Hughes and Sanchez more. They may work as the 5th starter for a while till Hughes tires and Gonsalvez or Romero or Littell is ready to come up

Edited March 2, 2018 by Brandon

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Anyone else find it interesting that the Twins would be willing to offer Lance Lynn $10-$12 million over two years – when he received a qualifying offer of $17.4 million for one year, which, of course, he rejected?

[nicksaviking]

That's a completely laughable offer.

Yet, we're told it's ridiculous to suggest that they knowingly offered Darvish a contract they knew he wouldn't accept.

$12M/2 years sounds low but it's better than $0M/0 years which appears to be the offer from just about everyone else.

 

Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

[Drew]

 

...it's better than $0M/0 years...
 

Yeah that's the deal I signed out of little league and I'm still kicking myself more than 25 years later. Bet I could hit a baseball over that mountain.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's a completely laughable offer.

 

 

Why even bother filling out the paperwork for an offer that low?

 

To be fair, it probably wasn't any kind of formal offer with paperwork, and it could have been expressed more as a limit for the team rather than a specific valuation of the player. For example, they could have been having a discussion with Lynn's agent, and said they'd be open to adding another SP -- but with their current payroll, they're not comfortable going beyond 2/12, and Lynn's agent told them that wouldn't work for him.

 

The weird thing about it, though, is that it was for 2 years. A 1 year, ~$12 mil offer would seem more likely, I would think.

[cmoss84]

I'm sure they don't ever fully disclose all terms of any contract being offered. 2 years/12 million might be what was guaranteed. Incentives might have bumped it to 12 million/year. There might have been a 3rd year player option. Who knows. No use speculating with so many uncertainties. 

 

I'm just glad we are still having conversations with SP free agents. Something is going to happen. Soon. I can feel it. 

Edited March 2, 2018 by cmoss84

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes).

 

He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly.

 

But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound.

 

I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.

 

If you want to do a make good deal, Sanchez is a far better bet than some of the guys we've seen brought into the org over the last few years.

 

At least with Sanchez, he pitched like a #1 for a few years... maybe even an ace depending on the bazillion definitions of the term used here. While unlikely, it doesn't take smoking copious amounts of illegal substances to argue that it's possible he's healthy and able to have an above average SP season for a song... If this team wants to do something other than a playoff in the wild card game, they need their back end of the rotation to not be awful... yeah, we need the ace... but the key to winning 95 games is a bit more than not having to pray for rain in the back of the rotation. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

I don't know. He's not a Nolasco or a Pelfrey -- Lynn's last 3 active seasons are 133, 129, and 124 ERA+. Full seasons too. Ervin 2016-2017 and Duffey's 10 start rookie season are the only Twins SP who has touched those run prevention figures since Scott Baker back in 2011.

 

Lynn's FIP trend wasn't good in 2017, and he certainly wasn't my first choice this winter, and I'm not sure I'd really want to add him for much after adding Odorizzi -- but I think he's got the potential to be a good bargain for somebody.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sure they don't ever fully disclose all terms of any contract being offered. 2 years/12 million might be what was guaranteed. Incentives might have bumped it to 12 million/year. There might have been a 3rd year player option. Who knows. No use speculating with so many uncertainties.

For certain players and deals, I think these extra contract clauses would be more relevant. But Lynn is an established, healthy starting pitcher. I think the guaranteed years/dollars (or absence thereof!) are significant enough on their own to judge the offer.

[cmoss84]

 

$12M/2 years sounds low but it's better than $0M/0 years which appears to be the offer from just about everyone else.

Lynn's numbers and his abilities look destined to flop, at least in the AL.

Maybe this is the wrong way to look at things, but the division he pitched in had some pretty good hitting teams (Cubs/Reds/Brewers) and he pitched pretty well against some AL teams as well in inter league play. I would be confident when he pitches against the white sox, tigers, royals, and most AL teams. Much more confident than when our current 3-5 pitchers are on the bump. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My prediction when Anibal was signed that Hughes and Sanchez were competing for one spot in the rotation.

I disagree. Hughes is healthy, has a clear preference for starting, and we still have 2/26 committed to him. Especially with Ervin out, I think he's basically guaranteed a month or two in the rotation to open the season (barring injury, of course).

 

Sanchez is the "6th starter" right now, insurance in case another SP gets injured this spring (so we don't have to force Duffey or Slegers into that role). I'd guess Sanchez also has an outside chance at taking Mejia's spot with a really good showing this spring, but I think Hughes is pretty safe for now -- what else could they realistically do with him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sanchez is a weird one for sure, and I am not sure how to even judge him this spring. His spring training numbers were pretty consistent throughout his Tigers years, and even back to his Marlins years:

 

http://m.mlb.com/player/434671/anibal-sanchez?year=2018&stats=career-s-pitching-mlb

[jimbo92107]

 

I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes).

 

He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly.

 

But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound.

 

I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.

I'd like to see Sanchez take up Pilates. Everybody should, except me. ;-)

 

Pilates is HARD.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you want to do a make good deal, Sanchez is a far better bet than some of the guys we've seen brought into the org over the last few years.

 

At least with Sanchez, he pitched like a #1 for a few years... maybe even an ace depending on the bazillion definitions of the term used here. While unlikely, it doesn't take smoking copious amounts of illegal substances to argue that it's possible he's healthy and able to have an above average SP season for a song... If this team wants to do something other than a playoff in the wild card game, they need their back end of the rotation to not be awful... yeah, we need the ace... but the key to winning 95 games is a bit more than not having to pray for rain in the back of the rotation. 

The most unfortunate thing about the Sanchez signing was its timing, and that's not really fair. Had it come after the Odorizzi trade, we all probably mumble "okay, that makes sense" and get on with our days.

 

Because the Sanchez signing is the type of low risk, decent reward that mid-market teams should pursue. If you see a guy who has the stuff and ability to rebound into being a productive player and can be had on the cheap, give it a shot. There's so little to lose and quite a bit to gain.

 

The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.

[jimbo92107]

 

Yeah that's the deal I signed out of little league and I'm still kicking myself more than 25 years later. Bet I could hit a baseball over that mountain.

Reminds me:

Why did the macho man kick apart the mountain? 

It was in his way.

[Mike Sixel]

Three years of being terrible...I can't imagine I would have liked the timing ever. One year? Sure.

[Monkeypaws]

2 for 12 seems like a good starting point. Lynn's camp can counter 4 for 50. Meet at 3 for 30ish, everybody happy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah that's the deal I signed out of little league and I'm still kicking myself more than 25 years later. Bet I could hit a baseball over that mountain.

Do your friends and clients call you "Uncle Drew"?

[laloesch]

Jim Bowden 

 

Several teams remain in on Cobb or Lynn including: Orioles, Phillies, Twins and Brewers but all are waiting for 3-Year deals under $50m so they don’t have to give up draft pick compensation according to sources...asking price remains above for now

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Jim Bowden 

 

Several teams remain in on Cobb or Lynn including: Orioles, Phillies, Twins and Brewers but all are waiting for 3-Year deals under $50m so they don’t have to give up draft pick compensation according to sources...asking price remains above for now

Bowden is wrong here.

 

The $50 mil threshold only determines what kind of compensation pick the other team will receive.

 

The pick that the signing team loses is not affected by the contract size.

 

(And the picks aren't directly transferred -- the Twins, for example, could forfeit a third-rounder, but the Rays could receive a comp pick between the first and second round.)

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3512

 

If you think about it, it makes sense. Otherwise there would be all kinds of questions about "gaming the system" -- $49 mil "guarantees" plus easily reached incentives, player options, etc. to avoid the $50 mil threshold. The Rockies wouldn't have signed Wade Davis for $52 mil, for example!

Edited March 2, 2018 by spycake

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.

 

A like just doesn't suffice for this post... it needs a love. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't know. He's not a Nolasco or a Pelfrey -- Lynn's last 3 active seasons are 133, 129, and 124 ERA+. Full seasons too. Ervin 2016-2017 and Duffey's 10 start rookie season are the only Twins SP who has touched those run prevention figures since Scott Baker back in 2011.

 

Lynn's FIP trend wasn't good in 2017, and he certainly wasn't my first choice this winter, and I'm not sure I'd really want to add him for much after adding Odorizzi -- but I think he's got the potential to be a good bargain for somebody.

Maybe some team will value him on his ERA+ but so far it doesn't look like it.

 

All he really has is basically three different fastballs, a four seamer a two seamer and a cutter. When he started out no one thought he'd stay in the rotation because of his lack of secondary pitches, so credit to him that he's made it this far.

 

But with no real offspeed or breaking pitch, only average velocity on his fastball and an alarming reliance on the sinker, his usefulness doesn't look likely to continue, at least not to me.

 

I also don't think it's a coincidence that every free agent starter left has a very high sinker usage. I don't think I'm the only one who thinks it tends to be counter-productive when used in high doses, particularly now that nearly every batter has changed his swing to avoid hitting grounders.

[kab21]

 

I disagree. Hughes is healthy, has a clear preference for starting, and we still have 2/26 committed to him. Especially with Ervin out, I think he's basically guaranteed a month or two in the rotation to open the season (barring injury, of course).

 

Sanchez is the "6th starter" right now, insurance in case another SP gets injured this spring (so we don't have to force Duffey or Slegers into that role). I'd guess Sanchez also has an outside chance at taking Mejia's spot with a really good showing this spring, but I think Hughes is pretty safe for now -- what else could they realistically do with him?

So far Hughes has exceeded expectations by actually being able to pitch. I view the 'competition' almost as a competition to be healthy at the end of spring training. If both of them are then I think Mejia is the most likely loser since he has options. Not fair really since I think he is more likely to be better than either this year but it is always better to have more choices for the rotation than fewer.

 

Anyone else find it interesting that the Twins would be willing to offer Lance Lynn $10-$12 million over two years – when he received a qualifying offer of $17.4 million for one year, which, of course, he rejected?

It really isn't surprising at all. The 17.4M QO is no longer available and other players have struggled to sign deals that matched the yearly value of the QO. Those players usually had an issue with the punishing draft pick compensation attached to the signing but this winter has marked a significant hesitation from teams to sign 30 something yr old FA's to 4-5 year contracts.

[Twins33]

[Mr. Brooks]

Ha, I should have known better than to be hoodwinked by Doogie. That guy is living proof that anyone can live their dream if they just fake it.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.

Oops, my mistake on that one. For some bizarre reason I wrote Gibson when I meant Hughes. Time for me to cut back on this beer consumption!