Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[Dantes929]

 

He was great in 2014-2015, decent in 2016 and terrible last year. Unless someone can give me a reason he was awful last year that won't make him awful this year . . . 

Please, explain how he was terrible last year.    4.14 ERA last year would put him very solidly at our number three.    How is this not a great get?    We basically have the same team as last year but better relievers and a better starter than all but two of our last year's starters.    I was hoping for Cobb but this appears to be a solid improvement.    Twins don't get better by picking up all stars at every position.  They get better by improving at multiple positions either by acquiring guys or having guys already here do better.    Sanchez, I don't get.   This one looks good.   I've got to believe he is better than the Colon, Santiago, Turley, etc. guys we were running out there for the 4th and 5th spots last year.

[jimbo92107]

This does appear to make the 2018 season a more interesting proposition. Even with Santana out for a month, Odorizzi can help keep the team reasonably close to .500 until Santana returns. Meanwhile, the experiments with all five top-ten prospect pitchers can happen. 

[Guest]

Sort of OK. Odorizzi had a bad year last year and may have been slotted eighth in the Rays’ rotation this year. If last year is not a trend and he moderately bounces back to being a 2 WAR pitcher, then it’s good.

 

If the Rays are dumping, will they take Tyler Wells for Dickerson?

[Mr. Brooks]

Please, explain how he was terrible last year. 4.14 ERA last year would put him very solidly at our number three. How is this not a great get? We basically have the same team as last year but better relievers and a better starter than all but two of our last year's starters. I was hoping for Cobb but this appears to be a solid improvement. Twins don't get better by picking up all stars at every position. They get better by improving at multiple positions either by acquiring guys or having guys already here do better. Sanchez, I don't get. This one looks good. I've got to believe he is better than the Colon, Santiago, Turley, etc. guys we were running out there for the 4th and 5th spots last year.

5.43 FIP, 5.10 xFIP.

He had an extremely lucky, and unsustainable babip.

 

Now, that doesn't mean he can't be better this year. He's done it before. But last year he was pretty bad, which is why he was available for a borderline top 20 organizational prospect.

[mudcat14]

Can't believe the number of people ho-humming this deal.  Odorizzi is the most polished, in-his-prime starting pitcher we've acquired since Ervin.  He's averaged 30-starts and 165-innings over four years, while consistently keeping his team in games.  He cost us our #4 prospect at SS, not our #4 overall.  Is he a lock-down #1 starter?  Obviously not, but realistically we're gonna have to develop that for ourselves, like almost everyone else.  At worst, this allows the Twins time to continue to polish the next wave like Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Jose, Littel & yes even Stewart.

 

Patience paid off, Falvine.  Good job!

[Mr. Brooks]

Can't believe the number of people ho-humming this deal. Odorizzi is the most polished, in-his-prime starting pitcher we've acquired since Ervin. He's averaged 30-starts and 165-innings over four years, while consistently keeping his team in games. He cost us our #4 prospect at SS, not our #4 overall. Is he a lock-down #1 starter? Obviously not, but realistically we're gonna have to develop that for ourselves, like almost everyone else. At worst, this allows the Twins time to continue to polish the next wave like Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Jose, Littel & yes even Stewart.

 

Patience paid off, Falvine. Good job!

I think maybe you should ask yourself, "why was he available straight up for such a low level prospect?"

 

If last year was a trend in the wrong direction, he might barely be a major league starter. (He was 0.0 bWAR last year.)

If it was an explainable blip, then yes, it could be a great price.

The point of the trade that others are excited about (the relatively low return), is actually a point that worries me. If even 1 or 2 teams around the league weren't concerned about his 2017, then surely someone easily beats our offer, right?

 

But, given the low cost, I'm cautiously optimistic that they've identified an injury or other mechanical issue that caused 2017.

[AlwaysinModeration]

That seems like highway robbery to me. When I saw the headline, I immediately looked to see what prospects they gave up, assuming it would be a couple in the 15 range. Pretty amazed to see it be only Palacios.

 

Makes me wonder how far off this board is in terms of guesses on an Archer offer.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Pretty sure Sanchez signed a minor league contract. No need to clear space unless he makes the team out of ST.

 

Sanchez's deal is an MLB deal, pending a physical. No word yet from the Twins on the deal. But reports are that it's a non-guaranteed MLB deal. But, since it'll mean a 40-man roster spot, a few things need to be done before the Twins announce it. 

[Mr. Brooks]

That seems like highway robbery to me. When I saw the headline, I immediately looked to see what prospects they gave up, assuming it would be a couple in the 15 range. Pretty amazed to see it be only Palacios.

 

Makes me wonder how far off this board is in terms of guesses on an Archer offer.

Odorizzi and Archer aren't comparable as trade assets, IMO.

 

I'm not sure many would have expected it would cost much for Odorizzi.

[mudcat14]

 

I think maybe you should ask yourself, "why was he available straight up for such a low level prospect?"

If last year was a trend in the wrong direction, he might barely be a major league starter. (He was 0.0 bWAR last year.)
If it was an explainable blip, then yes, it could be a great price.
The point of the trade that others are excited about (the relatively low return), is actually a point that worries me. If even 1 or 2 teams around the league weren't concerned about his 2017, then surely someone easily beats our offer, right?

But, given the low cost, I'm cautiously optimistic that they've identified an injury or other mechanical issue that caused 2017.

 

I get your point, truly I do.  But even if he is trending downward, he still has a long way to fall to be on par with our current #3, Kyle Gibson.  Don't know why the Rays took the deal, but am sure excited that they did.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If the Rays are dumping, will they take Tyler Wells for Dickerson?

 

I wouldn't trade Tyler Wells for Dickerson.

[jimmer]

The Rays just got FLEECED!!!! Wow! Our #20 Prospect (Top 25 on most lists) for a SOLID #2 SP. Great work to the Twins' front office! Just wow!

he is nowhere near a solid #2. Maybe a solid #4 or #5. We didnt give up anyone of consequence for him so good trade. Edited February 18, 2018 by jimmer

[jud6312]

I'm hoping this is the text chain between Falvine and Sanchez now.

 

[AZTwin]

I still cant believe we got Odorizzi for Palacios and thats it.  Don't get me wrong, I think he's a fine prospect, but when I saw the headliner that a SS was involved, I thought immediately it was Gordon, or worse, Javier.   To give up only our 4th best SS prospect is great.  Maybe they like Palacios better than Gordon, but I still take Gordon over him quite easily.

[Seth Stohs]

Not sure that it matters, but I'll just throw this out there... Here is where Jermaine Palacios ranked in the 2018 Twins Prospect Handbook:

 

Seth - 19

Cody - 20

Tom - 21

Jeremy - 17

 

I really like Palacios as a prospect, but to get a pitcher of Odorizzi's caliber for him, one-for-one, is terrific. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I get your point, truly I do. But even if he is trending downward, he still has a long way to fall to be on par with our current #3, Kyle Gibson. Don't know why the Rays took the deal, but am sure excited that they did.

Kyle Gibson has never had a FIP or an xFIP as bad as Odorizzi had last year.

So, no he wouldn't have to fall any further to be on par with Gibson, he'd already be worse.

Odorizzi's ERA last year was based on Danny Santana level unsustainable luck.

 

Hopefully, though, last year was an aberration, either by injury or something correctable.

[AZTwin]

 

Not sure that it matters, but I'll just throw this out there... Here is where Jermaine Palacios ranked in the 2018 Twins Prospect Handbook:

 

Seth - 19

Cody - 20

Tom - 21

Jeremy - 17

 

I really like Palacios as a prospect, but to get a pitcher of Odorizzi's caliber for him, one-for-one, is terrific. 

Pretty much where I sit.  Only 4th best SS prospect to boot.  He could have a good career and Id still feel good about the value with the risk there.  When the ticker said "Odorizzi to Twins for SS prospect" I thought for sure it was Nick Gordon and iffy.  If it was Javier, I would've lost my mind.  This was great.

[Mike Sixel]

He's ok. But let's be realistic, he was just traded for the twins third or fourth best short stop prospect....

[tvagle]

This puts the payroll at $115.5M as is (not counting Sanchez just yet)...how much more do you think the Twins can/will add?

 

Cobb/Lynn at $15M per = $130M payroll? or are they done??

Edited February 18, 2018 by tvagle

[d-mac]

Odorizzi was available for Palacios probably because Odorizzi allowed 1.88 HR/9 and and an xFIP of 5.10 last year.

 

I hope the Twins see something I don't with Sanchez and Odorizzi. Both were cheap for a reason. Super underwhelming.

[AZTwin]

This also opens up room to give Lewis to start in FSL with Javier in Cedar Rapids.

[AZTwin]

 

Odorizzi was available for Palacios probably because Odorizzi allowed 1.88 HR/9 and and an xFIP of 5.10 last year. I hope the Twins see something I don't with Sanchez and Odorizzi. Both were cheap for a reason. Super underwhelming.

Look at his September... Great month.   Back issues early in the year.  Got him super cheap.  Only 4th best SS prospect.  Great value.

[Mike Sixel]

It is a risk worth taking, but he's probably not particularly good. He'll need luck, again, I'd guess, to be good. But, the price is good.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Oxtung]

 

His splits are pretty favorable; he did much better in the second half (dynamite in Sept.), and on the road.   

 

Is Ordozzi a flyball or groundball guy? Maybe Buxton can help if the former.  (Edit: his flyball rate rose precipitously last season, and the groundball rate dropped even more so. I don't know league averages, so I lack context to answer my own question)

 

League averages 2017:

FB - 35.3%

LD - 20.7%

GB - 44.0%

 

Odorizzi 2017:

FB - 47.3%

LD - 22.1%

GB - 30.6%

 

Clearly he is an extreme flyball pitcher (and while that is up from previous seasons they were in the low to mid 40% range). That is going to be a big problem because Target field was actually an extreme HR park last year and has been above average the last three. Last year Target Field allowed 28% more HR's than Tropicana Field. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Oxtung

[Pardon My Dinger]

Seems...kind of weird.

[Mr. Brooks]

Look at his September... Great month. Back issues early in the year. Got him super cheap. Only 4th best SS prospect. Great value.

His September was a 26 inning sample size that featured a .143 babip. His walk rate was still high in September.

He doesn't have to give it back, but I'm not sure it means a whole lot.

[Kelly Vance]

No disrespect to Palacios, who I hope has a long career and makes this trade seem one sided for the Rays (good luck kid) but getting a starter that makes people argue about whether he slots at 2-3 or 4 for a SS not named Gordon is something we weren't counting on after missing out on Yu know who.  

So we can still add a FA starter? 

This allows Gonsalves and Romero to start in AAA and build up some work before getting the call. It puts Sanchez in the garage. Realistically, this takes pressure off but at the same time sharpens the focus on the competition for the last two spots. Going to be interesting to see 

[d-mac]

Please, explain how he was terrible last year.    4.14 ERA last year would put him very solidly at our number three.    How is this not a great get?    We basically have the same team as last year but better relievers and a better starter than all but two of our last year's starters.    I was hoping for Cobb but this appears to be a solid improvement.    Twins don't get better by picking up all stars at every position.  They get better by improving at multiple positions either by acquiring guys or having guys already here do better.    Sanchez, I don't get.   This one looks good.   I've got to believe he is better than the Colon, Santiago, Turley, etc. guys we were running out there for the 4th and 5th spots last year.

 

Move past the ERA. It's just an illusion, man.

[KirbyDome89]

No quibble here; for what the Twins paid, Odorizzi is worth the risk. I don't think he's near the pitcher others are convinced he is, but this is a better move than signing Sanchez. Baby steps.....

[d-mac]

Look at his September... Great month.   Back issues early in the year.  Got him super cheap.  Only 4th best SS prospect.  Great value.

 

Also had below average peripherals in '16. He's been trending downwards for a while now. Without more data his September looks nothing more than an aberration and not the start of the new trend. He is cheap. For a reason.