Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[ashbury]

BAPIP assumes that every struck ball is equally fieldable. I don't think there is a good basis for that in BAPIP.

What? BABIP doesn't assume anything, it simply measures how many batted balls dropped in for hits. There is no math involved really; no manipulation of the data.

This response seems like splitting hairs. Sure, it's just a computation. But using it, such as to say "the number for this guy doesn't look sustainable," does imply some assumption about the meaning it delivers.

[NewClearHarley]

 after excoriating them over the Sanchez debacle I must give proper credit to Falvine for the hornswoggling of TB on this deal

[laloesch]

after excoriating them over the Sanchez debacle I must give proper credit to Falvine for the hornswoggling of TB on this deal

Yeah same here.

[twinssporto]

I think this a great trade.  Odorizzi could provide some very good results the next year or two.  I was encouraged by the article on him that the Tampa Bay Times did after his last start in 2017.  Odorizzi said he's never felt better as a pitcher and was excited to take the momentum he had in September into next year.  Time will tell.  

 

By the way, here is chart I found on "Beyond the Box Score" that shows pitching aging curves by total fWAR. Just thought it was interesting to see.  I would like to see this through 2017.  I also edited post to include 20+ game starter aging curves. 

 

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/4041081/Aging_2.png

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4041249/Aging_3.png

Edited February 18, 2018 by twinssporto

[markos]

A few stats to think about with Odorizzi and his nice ERA:

 

- Odorizzi had good fortune with bullpen help. League average ~30% of bequeathed runners on base end up scoring. Odorizzi had only 15% last year.

- Odorizzi was 7th in baseball in total unearned runs.

- Baseball Reference calculated that he had the easiest pitching environment in the AL in 2017. This attempts to combine the quality of opponents, team defense and stadium effects.

[Oxtung]

 

This response seems like splitting hairs. Sure, it's just a computation. But using it, such as to say "the number for this guy doesn't look sustainable," does imply some assumption about the meaning it delivers.

There are metrics that pick only certain portions of a players performance to focus on. FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA all cherry pick their data sources (potentially with good reason). All of them believe only certain parts of a performance are controlled by the pitcher. 

 

BABIP isn't one of those.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Oxtung

[bird]

 

And I suppose that if Palacios is in fact exactly what everyone thinks he is (roughly 20th org prospect), and the Rays settled on him because nobody was really that interested in Odorizzi, they'd tell their fans what? Yeah we traded for this prospect that is just, meh?
Of course not, they're going to pump up how much they love him to their ticket buyers, regardless.

 

 

It's probably relevant to note that Palacios was one of 21 Twins prospects given a grade of B- by Sickles. That's more B- or better prospects than you find in even the consensus top system in baseball, Atlanta (but who has LOTS more elite prospects). Palacios would crack the Top 10 prospects in the White Sox's vaunted system.

 

Putting in this context, the trade may look a bit more balanced.

Edited February 18, 2018 by birdwatcher

[bcs4]

 

Not necessarily. I think everyone would agree that different hitters are going to be able to sustain a higher babip, due to how hard they hit the ball, and hitting more line drives.
Conversely, some pitchers should be able to sustain a lower babip, if they have movement or deception that gives up less hard contact, and/or less line drives.

The key is comparing each player to themselves. (for the most part, some outliers are not sustainable by anyone. ) When a pitcher suddenly sees a 50 point drop in babip one year, compared to his career babip, it's almost certainly luck based.
And,.227 isn't sustainable by any pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career babip of .281.
Pedro Martinez, .279.
Tell me a pitcher that you think limited hard contact the best, and I'll bet his career babip is in that same range.

 

Career BAPIP isn't a valid comparison because it's an average. I might consider a BAPIP trend over the past couple of years. Regardless, Gibson's BAPIP has been nowhere near Odorizzi's,

[ashbury]

There are metrics that pick only certain portions of a players performance to focus on. ...

 

BABIP isn't one of those.

"Balls [put] In Play" isn't only a portion of the performance?

[Han Joelo]

I'd suggest the Twins are in a place where they need to be finding an Arrieta/Keuchel type.  This is an attempt.  At worst, the Twins have acquired a Professional Starting Pitcher.  I'm hoping there is still some upside in his 27 year old arm.

 

No one got hornswoggled, I think, certainly not Tampa Bay.  Palacios is a good prospect.  If nothing else, this reminds me in some ways of the Twins picking up Eduardo Escobar.

[NewClearHarley]

 

Gotta wonder if somehow Dickerson will surface with the Twins.  Maybe part of the original discussion but now trying to get him for less money than what it would have been in a trade.  Don't hold your breath on any additional pitching moves. I think they will feel comfortable with finding their staff in Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, Hughes, May, Duffy, Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers.  I'm happy, but I always am when spring training starts.

I like Dickerson but he is much better hitter against RHP than lefties. I feel for his price tag we would be better served to acquire a right handed power bat for DH/bench duties

[Mike Sixel]

Well Odorizzi is moving out of the east division and into the central. That alo e will improve his FIP and x FIP. Then there is the Buxton factor as well. Odorizzi chews up innings so solid move. I forgive the front office a little for the Darvish bull**** but not entirely yet.

Two DL stints and only 13o/140 innings last year....

Edited February 18, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[NewClearHarley]

 

I'd suggest the Twins are in a place where they need to be finding an Arrieta/Keuchel type.  This is an attempt.  At worst, the Twins have acquired a Professional Starting Pitcher.  I'm hoping there is still some upside in his 27 year old arm.

 

No one got hornswoggled, I think, certainly not Tampa Bay.  Palacios is a good prospect.  If nothing else, this reminds me in some ways of the Twins picking up Eduardo Escobar.

Palacios was on track to never be anything more than a utility infielder (at best) with the Twins if all of their prospects pan out as projected. Jorge Polanco is young and entrenched at SS and there are three other SS/MI prospects in our system who project higher than him. Tampa sees something in him that most of the baseball prospect media world fail to see. I hope he succeeds there but it is no loss to the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Tampa Bay Times had this to say about the trade, found that they value Palacios higher than most:

Of course they say that. They aren't going to go to press and say they traded for a mediocre player

[Tom Froemming]

Shared this on Twitter after a quick glance, somebody can feel free to double check my math: 

 

Jake Odorizzi's .227 BABIP was very low last season, but I'm not too concerned.
It looks like there were 414 balls put in play off him. Had his BABIP been at his career mark, .269, just 17 more hits would've fallen in. Fly ball pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Palacios

 

For

 

Odorizzi

 

Not

 

Odoriferous

[bcs4]

 

What? BABIP doesn't assume anything, it simply measures how many batted balls dropped in for hits. There is no math involved really; no manipulation of the data.

 

It's a weighted calculation. By definition it manipulates by including or not including selected statistics and their uses them in a way that is based on the designer's opinion. It doesn't take parks, schedule, defense, league, surface and many other factors into account that would all have a significant impact on projection.

[Mike Sixel]

It's a weighted calculation. By definition it manipulates by including or not including selected statistics and their uses them in a way that is based on the designer's opinion. It doesn't take parks, schedule, defense, league, surface and many other factors into account that would all have a significant impact on projection.

Like batting average excludes HBP, errors, and walks? All stats include and exclude things. It's just one stat, to provide context.

[bcs4]

 

If you don't think there are certain limitations to offering $130+ million dollars to a 31 year old pitcher, that don't apply to trading a borderline top 20 organizational prospect, then we should probably just agree to disagree.

I have no idea if the Twins could have offered more for Darvish. I have no doubt that Pohlad has a say in a contract that big, and I have no idea how high he's willing to go.
I doubt Pohlad cares much if they want to trade Jermaine Palacios.

 

We also have no idea of how the Rays value Palacios. Agree to disagree.

[Oxtung]

 

"Balls [put] In Play" isn't only a portion of the performance?

John I don't understand what you're digging at here. Nothing I've stated has been in any way controversial.

[Thrylos]

 

He was great in 2014-2015, decent in 2016 and terrible last year. Unless someone can give me a reason he was awful last year that won't make him awful this year . . . 

 

He had back and hamstring issues.  Back issues started at Spring Training. That made him make mechanical adjustments that hurt his pitching.  He went to the DL, rested his back and then returned.  Took him about another month to fix his mechanics. 

Check his September numbers.

[prouster]

Like batting average excludes HBP, errors, and walks? All stats include and exclude things. It's just one stat, to provide context.

I think the larger point is that there is no such thing as a truly objective statistic.

 

I like the trade. Odorizzi had a tough year, but there is some recent enough success to feel some optimism, especially considering they only gave up Palacios. He probably won't dominate anyone, but hopefully they won't need him to. Let's see if Berrios can take a step forward and be the anchor we're all clamoring for.

[bcs4]

 

Like batting average excludes HBP, errors, and walks? All stats include and exclude things. It's just one stat, to provide context.

 Absolutely true. Even SO and HR assume in their implication. I just don't value BAPIP as much as some do, until I need it in a future discussion .

 

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by bcs4

[jkcarew]

 

No one got hornswoggled, I think, certainly not Tampa Bay.  Palacios is a good prospect.

I agree.  PART of the reason Palacios is ranked significantly behind our other three SS prospects is simply that one of those was a number 5 overall draft pick, one a $4 million Dominican bonus baby, and the other a number 1 overall pick.  The 13 HR in under 300 PA last year at Cedar Rapids was a bit of an eye-opener...and, if nothing else, the trade seems to validate that MLB teams project Palacios as a SS...which is something we don't necessarily know is the case with all three of our other top SS prospects.

 

Having said that, I agree this is a trade you make every time you get a chance.  A position of organizational depth for someone that has a reasonable chance to make the major-league club a little better.

[Oxtung]

 

It's a weighted calculation. By definition it manipulates by including or not including selected statistics and their uses them in a way that is based on the designer's opinion. It doesn't take parks, schedule, defense, league, surface and many other factors into account that would all have a significant impact on projection.

Again......what? I'm not even sure how to respond to this post.

 

BABIP is about as benign a stat that exists. It simply measures how many balls that are put into play actually drop for hits. There is no weighting. No cherry picking some hits but not others; all hits are equal before the stat.

 

BABIP does not project anything. It is measuring what did happen not what will.

[bird]

 

Absolutely we needed this, but without the other level of arm the rotation is still a major weakness.

I'm not even asking for an ace, just a more natural 2/3. This deal is great, but more is still needed.

 

 

This may shock you, Levi, but I'm in this camp too, probably along with 85% of the rest here. Absent a front line starter, the prospects for improvement for this team in 2018 are extremely shaky at best. 

 

If you start with an objective of mid-rotation performance, every potential rotation option, outside of maybe Berrios, is a big question mark in one way or another. I don't think it's a glass half empty viewpoint to expect that 3 out of 5 of them will fail to give us #3 type performance. Which means that we trot out Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, Santana, Hughes, maybe eventually May, and then begin the auditions perhaps of Slegers, Gonsalves...who am I missing? Oh. Sanchez. Maybe the team is more optimistic about some of these guys, and for reasons we don't know? It's perplexing.

 

So maybe 2 of them give us #3 stuff, maybe even 3 of them if the cards fall right. Maybe another 2 or 3 give us adequate results for a #4-5 slot. But rationally, the addition of the front line starter we have all been clamoring for makes the difference between competing for a postseason berth or not. On paper.

 

Assuming for a moment that Falvey is done now (a sad thought), where does this team finish in the AL Central? Out of the wild card hunt, at a few games under .500, in 3rd place behind Cleveland and Chicago? You have to play the games, but that's what I see as the risk without that front end guy.

 

[ashbury]

John I don't understand what you're digging at here. Nothing I've stated has been in any way controversial.

There's no hidden agenda. I responded to what I was seeing. Since it's not a thread about stats, I'll bow out of the tangent.

[Oxtung]

 

I think the larger point is that there is no such thing as a truly objective statistic.

All stats are objective. By definition. You might disagree with what components the creator chose to include but it is still objectively measuring what it was intended to.

[jkcarew]

 

The 13 HR in under 300 PA last year at Cedar Rapids was a bit of an eye-opener...

It was 11 HR is 276 plate appearances.  Sorry.

[AZTwin]

With the recent move... Id love an archer/Dickerson for Kepler trade. They could chose any 3-4 prospects not named Lewis, Enlow, or graterol