Article: Why The Twins May Opt For Short-Term SP Commitment

[Mike Sixel]

2018 free agents starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Brandon McCarthy

 

from here https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/08/21/mlb-2018-free-agent-class-bryce-harper-manny-machado/585368001/

 

Kershaw is 31 and I don't see us getting him, Price is 34. I don't like that list any better than the ones available now. Trading seems to be the only way to get a top rotation guy, unless by magic one of our minor league pitchers does it in less than 1 year.

Ya, but just wait, the next year will be great, and then they'll spend money!

[Tomj14]

 

Ya, but just wait, the next year will be great, and then they'll spend money!

Exactly!

2020 FA starting pitchers, The King (33), Hamels (36), Porcello (31), Rich Hill (39), Hughes (33), Erv (37), Nova (33), Hammel (37), Chacin (32), Bumgarner (30), Sale (30), Pineda (31), Smyly (30), Fister (35), Richard (36), Moore (30), Peralta (30), Lyles (29), De La Rosa (30), Roark (33), Cole (29), Gibson (32), Gray (30), Odorizzi (29), McHugh (32), Ramirez (29), Wacha (28), Wheeler (29), Wood (29)

 

Maybe we should wait until 2021, then make a big splash.

[twinssporto]

I'm all for signing one of these guys to a one year contract.  Why not?  Seems like an excellent idea if the player and agent get desperate.  

 

I never expected the Twins would get close to signing Darvish this offseason.  However, a couple of days ago I've done 180 degree turnaround.  I actually think the Twins are still going to sign Darvish.

 

Here's why:

 

1. Milwaukee supposedly offered a 4 year contract.  Twins 5 years. Cubs are in this too but I don't think they want to increase the payroll that much. 

 

2. The other big market teams are out of this for compelling reasons (payroll penalties).

 

2. Darvish wants 7 years.  He can ask for that all day long but if nobody is offering that he has only 3 options: lower his expectations, sit the year out or sign a BIG one year contract (unlikely).

 

4. The Twins are a competitive team, with a great lineup, a great defense and a pitchers ballpark.  

 

5.  What's left?  Not a lot except for the Twins...

 

[terrydactyls]

But it is so much more than a business. It is a social contract with a community.

Only the Packers in Green Bay are a social contract.

[nicksaviking]

 

Pitchers make changes all the time. I am not sold on Gibson having turned any corner; he's turned corners before, only to disappoint us, and somehow the corner got un-turned in his final three starts in 2017. I'm rooting for Kyle, just not counting on him.

 

I'm not counting on any starter but Barrios at this point, but Gibson's ups and downs have never coincided with such an increase in strikeouts before. I had never been a Gibson guy as his sinker usage drove me crazy. I started to get interested last off season as I thought the new FO would model their Gibson agenda after the Cleveland staff, that is have him focus on his stuff that misses bats. He didn't do that in the first half, but he absolutely did after his call up. I think there's much more reason for optimism with him now than in the past when he was intentionally trying to put the ball in play.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not counting on any starter but Barrios at this point, but Gibson's ups and downs have never coincided with such an increase in strikeouts before. I had never been a Gibson guy as his sinker usage drove me crazy. I started to get interested last off season as I thought the new FO would model their Gibson agenda after the Cleveland staff, that is have him focus on his stuff that misses bats. He didn't do that in the first half, but he absolutely did after his call up. I think there's much more reason for optimism with him now than in the past when he was intentionally trying to put the ball in play.

I don't mean to stick a pin in your balloon but here is what Gibson looked like for a pretty large portion of 2015:

 

8 GS, 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 14 BB, 44 SO

 

That's the time I thought Gibson had turned the corner because it's hard to "fake" strikeouts over a ten game stretch of starts.

 

Maybe not so much.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Glad you mentioned Zack Littell – the pitcher we received from the Yankees for Garcia. While many people may think the Twins Brass decided to switch to being sellers from buyers at the trade deadline, I just think they they got an offer they couldn't refuse, to add Littell to the organization.

 

He was 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA in A+ ball; when he was moved up to AA, where he was 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, whereupon he was traded to the Twins, where he was 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA. 

 

I believe Littell is ready for Rochester, and may be in the Twins rotation by July, if he keeps posting these numbers.

 

Wouldn't it be fun - and ironic – if the Twins sign Garcia and have Littell in the rotation, and then have them win back-to-back games against the Yankees? 

 

Hey, I can dream can't I?

[Mr. Brooks]

This is a 2018 discussion.

 

Gibson is a free agent after this season. So (hopefully) will be Santana

 

There are a lot of better pitchers out there who will be a free agent after this season or might be available in a trade. Also Romero and Gonsalves might be lights out in 2018. Who knows.

Gibson is not a free agent after this year. He has one year of team control remaining.

[jimmer]

 

Gibson is not a free agent after this year. He has one year of team control remaining.

Hopefully he will be made a FA...

[sploorp]

Why doesn't Darvish take a one year deal, then try again next year when the Yankees and the Dodgers are back in the mix?

[jimmer]

 

Why doesn't Darvish take a one year deal, then try again next year when the Yankees and the Dodgers are back in the mix?

Cause right now he's the big fish.  Not necessarily next year.

[sploorp]

 

That being said if Darvish is really going to get as many years as speculated even a non-banker might balk at that deal

That's just it, Darvish ISN'T getting the years and/or the dollars he wants and that's the real reason he isn't signed.

[ashbury]

I'm not counting on any starter but Barrios at this point, but Gibson's ups and downs have never coincided with such an increase in strikeouts before.

It may have seemed like I was diminishing the constructive change he made, but I wasn't. I don't deny that he is doing something materially different.

 

But baseball's a game of adjustment, and adjustment to adjustment. There needs to be some time for the "book" to get updated for a player, before you know whether an improvement in results will be lasting. That's where it's really unsafe for someone at home like me to scout by the numbers.

 

And I'll note that when he got scored on heavily in his last three starts, he was still putting up gaudy K/9 numbers.

 

Anyway, we've all been tantalized by Gibby before, so I fall back on the old saying, fool me 47 times, shame on Kyle, fool me 48 times, shame on me.

[sploorp]

 

I'm wondering if expectations regarding Berrios haven't spilled over the top. Find a front line starter, Mr. Falvey. If we suddenly find that our mystery FA and Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Hughes, and Jorge are all lights out, then we have some unforeseen trade chips. Yay.

Exactly!  I've been saying bullpen help (which they got) and a starter good enough to slot in front of Santana.  I don't care who they are or how they get them.

[Jham]

...Maybe we should be scouting the California Penal League for a new pitcher too?... Awesome idea. All that cost Cleveland was a haircut and some glasses and they won it all!! Lol

That's not exactly true. The Indians actually fell to the Yankees who got lucky in the alcs and lucked out again in the world series.

[BJames]

All these FA's what too much money and to long a terms.  I'm fine with letting this play out till May and see if a trade is better then spending Big money now and a long term contract.  We have a great offence, a trade might be our best bet.  Put the wallet back in the pocket till June. 

[Mr. Brooks]

All these FA's what too much money and to long a terms. I'm fine with letting this play out till May and see if a trade is better then spending Big money now and a long term contract. We have a great offence, a trade might be our best bet. Put the wallet back in the pocket till June.

How many times has an impact player been traded in May?

[Mike Sixel]

All these FA's what too much money and to long a terms. I'm fine with letting this play out till May and see if a trade is better then spending Big money now and a long term contract. We have a great offence, a trade might be our best bet. Put the wallet back in the pocket till June.

You'd rather they give up part of the future pipeline than money?

[adorduan]

yeah, let's waste another year of our cost controlled players while we fiddle around with more retreads. It's such a common winning formula.....

[Nick Nelson]

 

2018 free agents starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Brandon McCarthy

Plus everyone who signs a one-year deal this offseason. Which, as alluded, could be a large group.

[Mike Sixel]

Plus everyone who signs a one-year deal this offseason. Which, as alluded, could be a large group.

None of which are exciting, are they?

[Nick Nelson]

 

None of which are exciting, are they?

We'll see. The thing about make-good deals is that sometimes people make good. 

[Otwins]

I think we need to sign two starters.  Mejia has an option left.  If everyone is healthy and pitching well send him to Rochester. If $5 million plus incentives gets Tillman I am all for it. But sign someone else also. Who is this years Charlie Morton?

[jimmer]

Hard pass on Tillman.  If it's Tillman versus playing one of our youngsters, I'll take the youngster.

 

I get a little tired of our SOP of signing people on the cheap we are hoping rebound.

Edited February 3, 2018 by jimmer

[DocBauer]

Initially, I was excited about Darvish but seriously doubted he'd actually end up in Minnesota, the closer we get to ST, the more I'm thinking the possibility is real. (And that possibility really should put a lot of the "Pohlad's are so cheap" stuff to bed-IMO) If you read between the lines and various opinions, as there is no definitive proof, it sure seems the Twins have the best offer on the table. Somewhere in the 5 years and $25-28M per area. Sure seems the Yankees and Dodgers are out for financial reasons now, and going forward. Darvish and his agent may not like their situation, but we are still talking 5 guaranteed years and a ton of money and security. I almost wonder if he and his team are thinking about a 1 year deal? Personally, as good as he is, I think that's a big risk.

 

Read about an agent, I forget who, that is being outspoken for this market and is alluding to collusion. I'm sorry, but I find that laughable. With mid range payrolls being in the $150M range, and "power clubs" climbing in to the $190+ range, I just don't buy it. I think teams are just becoming a little smarter about some of these huge and long term deals we've seen the past few season's.

 

I believe in Santana, even if he regressed a bit. There is a great article over at Puckettspond by Benjamin Chase that examines numbers while with the Twins, and where he has ranked in MLB during that time. It's interesting and impressive. I strongly believe Berrios is only going to get better. Mejia is young and talented. Gibson may or may not have turned a corner, but, he worked hard to change a lot of things. It seemed his approach/attitude on the mound was very different the second half of 2017. He's a bit of a wildcard, but I wouldn't get against him just yet. May IS a bit of a wildcard due to his injury, but the stuff and potential are there, he was looking really good before his injury. How quickly can he come back? And, of course there is a very reasonable chance that by the second half of 2018 we are seeing the early performances of Gonsalves, Romero, Littrell and maybe one or two more.

 

This team really, really needs Darvish. A lesser, but still good arm, STILL moves the needle. But the way the market is shifting, it seems no-one is going to get the contract they want. It could indeed be a year for a 1 year deal opportunity. (Nothing says the Twins couldn't re-sign said pitcher). Arrieta may be risky, but the best choice, and possibly the most likely of the top arms to do so. After him, it's kind of a crap shoot. Cahill is only 29, but his first half of 2017 was the best he's looked in some time. Vargas had good years, and a great first half, but is 35. Did he tire the second half or pitch through injury? Or is just toast?

 

I like the idea, I get the idea, and it could be smart and pay off. At least for the 1 year. I'm just not sure I like most of the options unless one of the "second tier" of Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb is willing to go this route.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm starting to wonder if the best thing for Arrieta might be a one year, make good deal (albeit at a very high number, like $25m). His fastball velocity was down in 2017 and his numbers reflected it.

 

I'd pay through the nose to get one year of an Arrieta who's trying to prove that he's worth a 3-4 year deal, even though I'm not much of an Arrieta fan really.

 

Too big a risk. This is the year to make his money. Just like it is risky for teams to sign FA pitchers... it is also risky for Pitchers to not lock up a long term deal. 

 

He gets hurt... He just lost a 100 million dollar bet.

 

Players would much rather put the risk on the ownership and understandably so.  

 

The players have been risking it all. For 6 years they have been praying to dodge those injury landmines just to get here. 

 

If I'm Arrieta... I want my money now.  

 

 

[Riverbrian]

Dear Falvey and Lavine,

 

You better walk away with a difference maker this year.

 

Don't screw this up. 

 

Sincerely 

 

Riverbrian

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't know, MLB players work hard and agents push them aggressively, but if I'm one of those pitchers and I turn down $100M contract to play a sport that I love... hoping for $125M?

 

I mean, c'mon, your are set for life at $100M, even with a stupid marriage or two.

 

Whatever, free country, ask for more, you may get it, baseball clubs are swimming in dough.

 

But me, I take the $100M and try for a ring.  I've got nothing to lose at that point.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Too big a risk. This is the year to make his money. Just like it is risky for teams to sign FA pitchers... it is also risky for Pitchers to not lock up a long term deal. 

 

He gets hurt... He just lost a 100 million dollar bet.

 

Players would much rather put the risk on the ownership and understandably so.  

 

The players have been risking it all. For 6 years they have been praying to dodge those injury landmines just to get here. 

 

If I'm Arrieta... I want my money now.  

Sure, under normal circumstances I would agree but he's one of four pitchers still unsigned on February 2nd and it appears he's not getting much in the way of interest.

 

Taking a one year deal would probably get him snatched up immediately and he could try again next year under more favorable circumstances.

[Riverbrian]

 

Sure, under normal circumstances I would agree but he's one of four pitchers still unsigned on February 2nd and it appears he's not getting much in the way of interest.

 

Taking a one year deal would probably get him snatched up immediately and he could try again next year under more favorable circumstances.

 

In other words. If that's the best he can do.