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Article: Report: Darvish Decision Expected This Week, Twins In Consideration

Cody Christie
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amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

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Posted
Posted

I also realized in the other thread that Steamer projects Cobb and Lynn to about 3.8 WAR combined in 2018 (prorated to 31 starts each, or 62 total), and Darvish at 3.8 WAR per 31 starts all by himself. The latter would be significantly more valuable than the former.

Unless the last starter you are using is below replacement.

 

(Not that I think that is the case here)

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Mike Sixel
Mike Sixel

Why do people keep talking about 200 innings? Almost no one pitches 200 innings anymore. 15 pitchers hit that mark last year.    Darvish pitched the 24th most innings of all starters last year. That's

Brock Beauchamp
Brock Beauchamp

If now isn't the time to make a push, I'm not sure there will ever be a time to make a push.   After this season, Dozier is likely gone. That's 3-5 wins you need to replace. Some of the core enters ar

ashbury
ashbury

We'll get to it, sometime this week.

PseudoSABR Cedar Rapids Kernels

PseudoSABR

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Wolfson has a few tidbits in this podcast.  Says the Twins offered either a 4 or 5 year offer to Darvish, unwilling to go 6.  One of the most aggressive teams.   Napoli likely to receive offer from Twins, who is actively recruiting Darvish.   Maintaining regular contact with number of free agents, and with the Tampa Rays about Archer and others, with Kepler perhaps as the center piece.

Vanimal46 GOAT

Vanimal46

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Wolfson has a few tidbits in this podcast.  Says the Twins offered either a 4 or 5 year offer to Darvish, unwilling to go 6.  One of the most aggressive teams.   Napoli likely to receive offer from Twins, who is actively recruiting Darvish.   Maintaining regular contact with number of free agents, and with the Tampa Rays about Archer and others, with Kepler perhaps as the center piece.

 

giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

 

The stove is HEATING up! 

Hosken Bombo Disco All-Star

Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted
Posted

I'm thinking a Napoli contract is valued at one year, mid single digits, and I wonder if the Twins are prepared to offer that sixth year to Darvish. Getting him for five years would seem almost too good to be true.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

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Posted
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There is no Kepler for Odorizzi trade that I make. Go for Archer or keep him.

x 1000. Ugh. If we end up with Odorizzi and are without Kepler this year because of a trade with the Rays, I can't even express my thoughts on that.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

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All things being equal (a huge assumption that's almost certainly not the case), $5m for Napoli at the front of the deal is A LOT better than $20-25m for Darvish at the back of the deal.

Yeah ... I'd have to see what we'd be offering and what everyone would sign for. I was always a Napoli fan in his heyday, but if it meant we would sign Darvish, I'd do a one-year, reasonable amount deal for him. But not sure where I'd put him ... I guess bench bat/DH ... can he even play 1st anymore? Guess he'd be a back up there? And if we signed him, I guess Vargas would lose his spot? I can't even think of the roster shuffling. It just seems like a piece we don't need. But ... for Darvish ... don't know. Again, I'd have to see the deals and numbers involved.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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All things being equal (a huge assumption that's almost certainly not the case), $5m for Napoli at the front of the deal is A LOT better than $20-25m for Darvish at the back of the deal.

Except for the impact on the 25 man roster..... He was not good at all last year. He can't field. What does he do when Mauer or Sano DH? I wasn't talking about the money at all

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Posted
Posted

 

Except for the impact on the 25 man roster..... He was not good at all last year. He can't field. What does he do when Mauer or Sano DH? I wasn't talking about the money at all

I don't want him on the roster but he was capable against lefties last season (.750 OPS), despite his bad overall numbers. The Twins can work with that profile and get him plate appearances.

 

If Napoli somehow brings the Twins Darvish, the loss of Vargas - who I don't think will amount to much in MLB - isn't going to worry me much. With Rooker expected to fly through the system with relative ease, one year of Napoli likely won't hurt the Twins much in the long run.

 

We're talking about a one year contract to an aging DH and potentially losing another DH who *might* be serviceable but not much more than that.

 

It's the easiest thing to replace in baseball on a yearly basis. Finding a one year DH for $5-8m every season is not hard to do, even if Rooker falters for a bit.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Posted

People sure have a lot of eggs in the Rooker basket.....and I am talking about this year, not next year or some future year. Napoli is not a good player. Adding him subtracts from the bench, because he can only DH. 

 

Sano can DH vs lefties.....or Nunez. Nunez hit better than Napoli, and can "play" positions. 

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Posted
Posted

 

People sure have a lot of eggs in the Rooker basket.....and I am talking about this year, not next year or some future year. Napoli is not a good player. Adding him subtracts from the bench, because he can only DH. 

 

Sano can DH vs lefties.....or Nunez. Nunez hit better than Napoli, and can "play" positions. 

And my point is that it doesn't really change much this year, either. What is the net gain/loss from swapping Vargas and Napoli? I don't think it's much either way. Given an option free of strings, I'd choose Vargas but I don't really care much either way.

 

The Twins don't need Nunez. They have Escobar and Adrianza to cover positional needs around the diamond. They have Granite to back up the outfield defensively, though it'd be a lot nicer to have a RHB available instead of Granite. But Nunez isn't good against lefties anyway so he brings more of the same to the table.

 

Nunez is redundant on this roster. The Twins need a slugger who can hit RHP and it'd be nice if he could play the OF but neither Napoli nor Vargas can play the outfield so, eh, whatever. Pick your poison, I'm not sure it matters much.

Borealis Prep Ball

Borealis

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Napoli was playing with a torn ligament in his right hand for much of last season, and man it sure showed up in the eye test in watching his ABs. Despite his age, I see a healthy Napoli as a bounce back candidate - perhaps even in a big way.

 

As many of have noted, a Napoli signing would probably displace Vargas. I’m in the camp that would have liked to have seen him do his thing for a full season but some of not getting to do so is on Vargas himself (as opposed to circumstance and discord with Molitor). Perhaps instead of daily moonshot competitions with Sano his time could have been better served working on his overall plate approach - just saying.

 

I think the tiebreaker for me in a Napoli vs Vargas sense, is the scaring the hell out of the opposing manager thingy. I sure like the idea of having a healthy Nap available for late inning damage despite this age of short benches.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

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Except for the impact on the 25 man roster..... He was not good at all last year. He can't field. What does he do when Mauer or Sano DH? I wasn't talking about the money at all

 

I don't want Napoli, but if he's a requirement to get Darvish I can find enough half full glasses to make me less shy about him.

 

Like his obscenely low .225 BABIP last year, what looks like a career outlier in terms of BB% and his spray chart looks a lot like Brian Dozier's and Target Field tends to help that profile a ton.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I like Vargas, but I'm losing sleep over losing him either. You can argue he was jerked around by MN, but at the same time, he's had plenty of opportunities that he has not capitalized on.

 

The case built for Napoli got a lot more interesting with regards to his injury. I honestly didn't realize he had that injury. The flip side though is that this is his age 36 season and he's been bad for 2 years. Perhaps has a bench bat, he could have some resurgence with a bit less play who knows...

 

But.. if that's what it takes to get Darvish... I'm quite fine with that.

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