Article: How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?

[Thrylos]

Three facts make me think that his lease will be long:

 

a. Grossman is a much worse defensive outfielder

b. Rosario has better OPS (.771 vs .749 and .594) and OPS+ (103 vs. 99 and 59) than the other 2 outfielders, Kepler and Buxton.

c. While there might be some helium for a CF replacement in AAA (Granite), there is no better corner OF than Rosario in the organization.

 

 

And the cherry on top:   Rosario is hot hitting .316/.379/.595 the last month and .351/.415/.703 the last two weeks.

Makes zero sense to get rid of one of the Twins' hottest bats.

 

And career stats (like that Gleeman tidbit) do not matter for someone who has not yet reached their prime.  What Rosario is doing the past month matters way way  more now and in the future than what he did 2 seasons ago with the Twins as a 23 year old.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Never hit? You have some high standards. He's (barley) above a league average hitter this year and is close to league average for his career. Ideally you get more out of LF, but that's not nothing, and almost certainly more than the alternatives readily available.

 

did you just compare him to the league as a whole, including catchers, SS, and CF and even pitchers in NL games? that doesn't make any sense to me. 

 

He's not a good hitter. he's not a good fielder. He throws to the wrong base, and makes baserunning mistakes. He's replacement level. After 1000 ABs in the majors, not just starting out.

[Vanimal46]

If anything, it reaffirms to me that Rosario is a very capable 4th OF, but not a starting corner OF for a contending team. This will most likely be his last full season as a starter if the Twins are serious about contending next year. 

[big dog]

I am sick and tired of seeing Rosario throw to the wrong base, or throw to no base at all.  He's made mental mistakes at least twice in the last week that have given runners a chance to move up to scoring position for absolutely no reason.  He just got his second stolen base of the year last night, which puts him one ahead of Gimenez...except Rosario has been thrown out three times.

 

I'd love to give Granite a shot.  Maybe it sparks Rosario to think a little more carefully, or maybe Granite does well.

[jimmer]

If anything, it reaffirms to me that Rosario is a very capable 4th OF, but not a starting corner OF for a contending team.

been saying the same thing ever since he debuted

[nicksaviking]

I'll surely hope that Granite, Palka or someone else can provide an upgrade over Rosario at some point, perhaps even soon. But isn't the premise of Rosario and his leash about seeing improvement?

 

His slash lines this year:

 

April/March: .294/.366/.660

May: ..310/.500/.810

June: .344/.536/.880

 

Isn't he doing what we are asking for? I mean aside from the errant throw.

[drjim]

 

did you just compare him to the league as a whole, including catchers, SS, and CF and even pitchers in NL games? that doesn't make any sense to me. 

 

He's not a good hitter. he's not a good fielder. He throws to the wrong base, and makes baserunning mistakes. He's replacement level. After 1000 ABs in the majors, not just starting out.

 

He's a better hitter than Kepler (at the moment), for example. And to say he's not a good fielder would be to ignore the past two seasons, which would be a mistake.

 

He can definitely be upgraded, but I'm not sure this type of hyperbole is all that valuable. And again, I would say he's going to be better than readily available upgrades.

[drjim]

 

I'll surely hope that Granite, Palka or someone else can provide an upgrade over Rosario at some point, perhaps even soon. But isn't the premise of Rosario and his leash about seeing improvement?

 

His slash lines this year:

 

April/March: .294/.366/.660

May: ..310/.500/.810

June: .344/.536/.880

 

Isn't he doing what we are asking for? I mean aside from the errant throw.

 

A handful of bad throws is a bad look, but ultimately not *that* meaningful over the course of a season. He does tend to drift, and not in a good way. But there is some value in letting this ride a little bit.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's a better hitter than Kepler (at the moment), for example. And to say he's not a good fielder would be to ignore the past two seasons, which would be a mistake.

 

He can definitely be upgraded, but I'm not sure this type of hyperbole is all that valuable. And again, I would say he's going to be better than readily available upgrades.

 

What hyperbole, exactly?

 

he's replacement level....he doesn't hit well compared to LFers, and he makes a lot of mental mistakes. Which part is hyperbole?

[Steve Lein]

I don't know, the mental lapses are one thing, but Eddie is one of the teams best hitters right now. I don't think you send him out for Granite and would venture he's been earning a longer leash lately with his bat.

 

It's going to take an outfield injury or complete implosion from Buxton as a hitter to get Zack up here the way they are going.

[drjim]

 

What hyperbole, exactly?

 

he's replacement level....he doesn't hit well compared to LFers, and he makes a lot of mental mistakes. Which part is hyperbole?

 

By what measure is he replacement level? EDIT: (Should say I looked at Fangraphs, by BRef he is barely above 0, so that is an accurate statement by you)

 

And he's the 14th LF in the majors by wRC. So he hits OK.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2017 by drjim

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't believe Rosario has options remaining. So, sending him down really isn't an option - play on words unintended.

He has one option left. Was added to the 40-man following 2014 season so he's been optioned twice. 

[Taildragger8791]

Hard not to notice that Rosario suddenly is drawing walks, which is a big deal if it continues. His OBP is catching up to Dozier's at this point, and his average/slugging are already higher.

 

His strikeout rate has dropped from over 25% (for his first two years) to a little over 19.3% this season, and his BB% has risen from a ghastly 3.3% to 5.6% (still bad, but trending the right way). That means his K/BB ratio dropped from 7.74 to 3.46, which is more than cut in half. Yeah, he still makes mental errors and is still too aggressive at times. Maybe he levels off and is still only a fourth outfielder. But he hasn't made no improvement or adjustments, as many here have asserted. I'd say let him keep starting ther rest of the year, maybe with a little more rest (Granite or other sub), and see if this upward trend can continue.

[jorgenswest]

Granite's career OBP/SLG in the minors closely matches Darin Mastroianni with a .01 difference in OBP and .08 difference in SLG. They match similarly in the scouting reports of their defense. They both had outstanding age 24 seasons though Matroianni's was at AA and a Granite is in the midst.

 

Mastroianni's ability to get on base did not translate to the majors leagues. Major league pitchers have no trouble attacking hitters that aren't a threat to go deep.

 

The same might be said about LaMonte Wade. He really needs to work on driving the ball in AA this year before he is advanced.

 

I don't see either as a threat to Rosario or an option to start without developing some power. Wade has a chance but he has work to do.

[DocBauer]

While I love Granite and what he brings to the table, and suspect he may be more than just a 4th OF, and could maybe be a true OB, speedy leadoff hitter for the Twins one day, I'm still a believer in Rosario and all his potential.

 

I give him the rest of the season for sure. At the least. When I look back at guys like Hunter, Gomez and even Hicks, who all struggled initially and were even sat at times, or ent to AAA a couple times, and what they did after a couple of years, (speculating that Hicks may have actually found homework in N.Y.), I just can't give up on Rosario at this point.

 

I tell you what, if I were a team involved in trade talk with the Twins, one of the guys I'd want is Rosario. All the offensive talent in the world and the ability to play all three OF spots. Yeah, I'd want him, take him, and I'd deal with a few rough moments while he continues to gain experience and improve.

[Canizaro's Ghost]

I made this same point last week on my radio show (that Rosario is expendable) and that night he hit three home runs. So, I'll take a "wait and see" approach this time. 

[Mike Sixel]

Dee Gordon disagrees that guys who have no power can't get on base, play defense, and provide value at the MLB level. He has a .340 OBP......and is hitting over .290. Neither of these guys have his speed, clearly. My point is, we don't know if they can't get on base at the major league level right now. 

 

As I said, Rosario should be the starter for at least 2 more months. But, to dismiss both Granite and Wade as lost causes already seems suspect to me. YMMV, of course.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't know, the mental lapses are one thing, but Eddie is one of the teams best hitters right now. I don't think you send him out for Granite and would venture he's been earning a longer leash lately with his bat.

 

It's going to take an outfield injury or complete implosion from Buxton as a hitter to get Zack up here the way they are going.

Other than September of last year, Buxton has a sub .600 OPS. What else but a complete implosion would one call that?

[jorgenswest]

Is the best no power OF example Ben Revere? Can Granite match his speed and defense? If triples are a measure, Granite isn't in Gordon's class when comparing minor league numbers.

 

The Twins need to be patient with Wade and keep developing him as a hitter. He needs to be more aggressive on pitches he can drive at the risk of taking fewer walks. Suggesting he needs more time to develop does not equate to a lost cause.

 

Seeing Rosario as a better investment in at bats right now as compared to Granite does not equate Granite to a lost cause. Comparing him to Mastroianni does not either. Can a better match be found?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Why is Granite's ceiling so much lower than Rosario's?

Rosario has more power and better arm. Granite seems superior in every other way (contact skills, plate discipline, baserunning and defense). The argument for Rosario's ceiling being higher is the power. Even if his ceiling is slightly higher though, I still think Granite might add a higher expected value.

[rghrbek]

 

I'll surely hope that Granite, Palka or someone else can provide an upgrade over Rosario at some point, perhaps even soon. But isn't the premise of Rosario and his leash about seeing improvement?

 

His slash lines this year:

 

April/March: .294/.366/.660

May: ..310/.500/.810

June: .344/.536/.880

 

Isn't he doing what we are asking for? I mean aside from the errant throw.

 

If those are his slash lines this year, then how is he batting .273/.313/.771?

 

I agree with Mike here, that you have to keep throwing him out there just simply based on ability.  However, once we hit August and when his ob% is under .300 (which it will be IMO), then you have to create competition and reward players, especially older players (minor league ages) like Britton or Wade, if they are performing at high levels.

 

I do think we tend to think Eddie is a better fielder than he is.  He shows flashes of brilliance, but more frequently he has had confusing blunders.  Molly sent him down last year because of all the mental mistakes and somewhat for his approach at the plate.  Has anything changed that much?  He is having one of his spikes of positivity right now at the plate, but I am thinking he kinda is what he is (or has been).

 

We will see.   No question the spotlight is on him now. 

[Dantes929]

Normally I would advocate for the fiery, high IQ and OBP guy but surprisingly the Twins are lower division for HR's and upper division for OBP so along with Rosario being hot we should probably table this discussion.    Of course Revere comparisons are likely.   How is Granite's arm?

[PDX Twin]

It seems to me that Granite is the victim of good health. Have the Twins had any field player go on the DL this year? In almost 3 months? In a normal year probably one of Mauer, Vargas, Grossman, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is on the DL at almost any point in time, which means that Granite can come up and play the OF (with Grossman to DH if it's Mauer or Vargas who is injured).

 

I don't want to hope for injuries, but when the inevitable happens Granite might get his chance.

[Taildragger8791]

 

If those are his slash lines this year, then how is he batting .273/.313/.771?

 

I agree with Mike here, that you have to keep throwing him out there just simply based on ability.  However, once we hit August and when his ob% is under .300 (which it will be IMO), then you have to create competition and reward players, especially older players (minor league ages) like Britton or Wade, if they are performing at high levels.

 

I do think we tend to think Eddie is a better fielder than he is.  He shows flashes of brilliance, but more frequently he has had confusing blunders.  Molly sent him down last year because of all the mental mistakes and somewhat for his approach at the plate.  Has anything changed that much?  He is having one of his spikes of positivity right now at the plate, but I am thinking he kinda is what he is (or has been).

 

We will see.   No question the spotlight is on him now. 

 

For some reason I think he listed OBP/SLG/OPS. I admit it confused me at first too.

[rghrbek]

 

For some reason I think he listed OBP/SLG/OPS. I admit it confused me at first too.

Thanks for that, making more sense now...

[Tom Froemming]

Even more than overthrowing the cutoff man, it drives me crazy when he needlessly runs into outs. In the Cleveland series, he tried to tag up to second base with the Twins down 4-0 in the third. That showed he has no concept of taking game situation into account or feel for when to be aggressive. Of course, that's nothing new with Rosie.

 

I like him, there isn't much he can't do. He has some game-changing tools: speed, arm strength, power ... but when do the mistakes end? 

 

Buxton and Kepler aren't going anywhere and even Grossman won't be a free agent until 2021. Not all these guys are going to be able to coexist in the same org much longer with Granite and Palka (once healthy) ready for a look in the majors.

[drjim]

 

Dee Gordon disagrees that guys who have no power can't get on base, play defense, and provide value at the MLB level. He has a .340 OBP......and is hitting over .290. Neither of these guys have his speed, clearly. My point is, we don't know if they can't get on base at the major league level right now. 

 

As I said, Rosario should be the starter for at least 2 more months. But, to dismiss both Granite and Wade as lost causes already seems suspect to me. YMMV, of course.

 

Gordon has a lower walk rate than even Rosario. He's also a middle infielder. If a guy can hit with a high average and play a good SS and provide some value with his legs he can stick even with minimal power. Much less likely at a corner OF.

 

If Gordon has a low average, he is close to unplayable. Very fine line.

[Doomtints]

Mountain out of a molehill.

[drjim]

 

Even more than overthrowing the cutoff man, it drives me crazy when he needlessly runs into outs. In the Cleveland series, he tried to tag up to second base with the Twins down 4-0 in the third. That showed he has no concept of taking game situation into account or feel for when to be aggressive. Of course, that's nothing new with Rosie.

 

I like him, there isn't much he can't do. He has some game-changing tools: speed, arm strength, power ... but when do the mistakes end? 

 

Buxton and Kepler aren't going anywhere and even Grossman won't be a free agent until 2021. Not all these guys are going to be able to coexist in the same org much longer with Granite and Palka (once healthy) ready for a look in the majors.

 

I would count on Rooker (or a FA) replacing him before Palka and Granite.

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

What hyperbole, exactly?

 

he's replacement level....he doesn't hit well compared to LFers, and he makes a lot of mental mistakes. Which part is hyperbole?

 

This year, AL LF hit 266/334/429 with a 327 wOBA and a 103 wRC+

Rosario's season: 273/313/458 327 wOBA and 101 wRC+

 

He is pretty much exactly league average. Much less than what we want or need, but much better than replacement level on offense. It's his defense that's killing his value. According to Fangraphs, he's 5.2 runs below replacement on defense, putting him worse than nearly everyone in LF.

 

He's like the polar opposite of Buxton.

 

Rosario contributes .1 runs above replacement on offense but loses 5.2 runs on defense

Buxton loses 7.6 runs on offense, but gets  back 3.8 runs on baserunning and another 4.8 runs on defense. In the end, Buxton has a .5 WAR and Rosario has a .4 WAR.