Article: Key Twins Quarter-Mark Questions

[Cody Christie]

It's hard to believe but baseball has already passed the quarter-mark of the season. What might be even harder for Twins fans to believe is that Minnesota finds themselves in contention. This is a welcome surprise after a tough to watch 2016 season.

 

There will be some questions facing the Twins in the weeks ahead as there will be plenty of tough decisions left to be made. The future of the franchise could tilt with the first overall pick. However, that player likely won't be making his Target Field debut in 2017.

 

So what other questions will the new front office have to answer?Were the 2016 Twins a fluke?

Things certainly couldn't have gone much worse for the Twins in 2016. Following a 2015 seasons where Minnesota was in contention until the final weekend, the wheels came off. Young players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios struggled to make adjustments at baseball's highest level. Even with those players struggling, the Twins' pitching was their most noticeable flaw. Only Arizona could match the Twins' 5.09 team ERA and Minnesota had the third worst WAR total from their pitchers.

 

The 2017 version of the Twins look much more comparable to the 2015 squad. Sano has been a dominant force at the plate. Buxton might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Ervin Santana might be developing into an ace. Even Berrios has looked like a completely new pitcher. It's hard to know if it will last but it's been a fun ride so far.

 

What can the Twins do to improve their bullpen?

Brandon Kintzler has been effective so far by converting 11 of his first 12 save opportunities. The Twins were able to pick up the win in his only blown save of the season but it still seems like the team is playing with fire. Besides Kintzler, Tyler Duffey and Matt Belisle have tossed the most innings. Only veteran Craig Breslow and Tyler Duffey have ERA's under 3.00.

 

Rochester doesn't exactly have a plethora of top-tier relief pitching options. At the end of the last two seasons, Trevor Hildenberger has been named the Twins Daily Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year. He has a 3.07 ERA and a 16 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio in 12 appearances. Other 40-man options include Buddy Boshers, Drew Rucinski, and Nick Tepesch but none of these guys are breaking down the door to the big leagues.

 

Can the Twins contend in an wide-open AL Central?

Many national sports outlets expected Cleveland, the defending AL Central champs, to run away with the division. Cleveland's best pitcher, Corey Kluber, is on the disabled list and they've played below .500 at home. The rest of the division also has plenty of questions. Chicago is in the midst of a rebuild. Kansas City's offense has struggled to start the year. Detroit seems to have pitching struggles every year.

 

The Twins have started 15-11 in the division which has been bolstered by a 7-1 record versus the Royals. Minnesota has 2-4 record against the Tigers and the Indians. If the Twins want to contend in the division, the club will need to improve against the teams in the division.

 

Are there any prospects fans can expect to see?

With things going well in Minnesota, it's hard to know when the team will need to dig into the minors for some extra help. An injury to an everyday player or a slumping bat could signal the start to any of these player's big league career. Zach Granite was the organization's minor league player of the year and he is already at Triple-A. It's quite possible for Granite to follow in Brian Dozier's footsteps.

 

Infielders Engelb Vielma and Nick Gordon have a chance to debut this season as well. Vielma was recently promoted to Rochester and he is the best defensive infielder in the organization. Gordon, a former first-round pick, is off to a hot start with his bat which could lead to a September call-up.

 

Will the Twins be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

With a new front office and a team surprisingly in contention, July could become an interesting month. No one expected the Twins to contend but the new regime will need to add some pieces if they are serious about making a playoff run. There are holes in the bullpen and the team has been rotating through starters in the rotation. Falvey and Levine shouldn't mortgage the farm but some extra pieces will be needed for the stretch run.

 

What questions do you think the Twins need to answer in the weeks ahead? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Otwins]

trades for players with more than one year of control may make sense. Maybe they can find a salary dump.  I doubt that they would or should trade prospects at this point.

[caninatl04]

I think there are more questions than answers.

 

• Escobar or Adrianza, or both?
• 12 or 13 man pitching staff?
• two "defensive minded" catchers, and if not
•     who to bring up and when
• Is there a fifth starter at Rochester?, and if not
•     what to do with those currently there?
• Is ByungHo Park destined to be a really well paid (I forget the exact $ figure) AAA player?
• Will there ever be batting order that lasts more than two consecutive days?
• What non-prospect trade bait do they have (if any)?
• Jelfrey Marte?  Will he be the only International signing of note?   Maybe a long-shot pitcher (or three)
• Is Molitor a stretch-run manager? And, my favorite:
• Wilk?  Haley?  Really?  Will FO ego factor into their eventual "demise

[caninatl04]

I forgot one:

 

Will Chris Giminez continue to be the ace of the staff with his perfect 0.00 ERA and WHIP?

[mikecgrimes]

 

trades for players with more than one year of control may make sense. Maybe they can find a salary dump.  I doubt that they would or should trade prospects at this point.

 

I'm guessing there are prospects rated in our top 10 who Falvey and Levine don't value.  I think you can probably get a significant asset for something we don't need.  Now that it appears we have at least one top end of the rotation pitcher the needs are no longer that huge.  I think people get overly focused on the long range model other teams have used, but really despite the fact the lineup might be better in 2 or 3 years given Santana's age this might be our best chance to take a shot. 

[ThejacKmp]

I think the Twins need to swing a minor trade that brings back a 4th or 5th starter type on the last year of his deal - someone like R.A. Dickey or Bartolo Colon (thought they don't have to be super old). I don't want to give up valuable assets too early but to get a competent back-end starter, the Twins should be willing to give up a very minor piece and willing to pick up the salary of an expiring contract. We've been under budget for years, it's time to use that to not start Kyle Gibson.

[Vanimal46]

At the very least minor trades need to be made to shore up the rest of the rotation... Ideally I'd like to aim high and find a person who could be at the top of the rotation with some years of control. If it takes a prospect or 2 + someone on the MLB team I'm alright with that. 

[Shaitan]

Getting a solid starter (even a #6) would help this team so much right now. Add one more reliable bullpen arm, and then they can reduce the bullpen size by one. A bigger bench is needed for the stretch when players start to tire out. And also for when you need a real pinch hitter.

 

I wonder if Falvey's philosophy is that #5 pitchers grow on trees/waivers and you can float by without investing in a specific one. It's working (somehow) so far.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wonder if Falvey's philosophy is that #5 pitchers grow on trees/waivers and you can float by without investing in a specific one. It's working (somehow) so far.

I doubt that's his strategy. At least I hope that's not his strategy.

 

I suspect the more likely situation is that it's still May and no one is available. Going into the season, the Twins had a ton of arms that weren't very good but that was probably enough to get through to June or July.

 

Unfortunately, Trevor May's injury crippled that approach before a single game was played.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Let's not get carried away. Most of us would have been plumb tickled to death if the Twins were not at the bottom of the division at this point in the season. The fact that they're overachieving our expectations doesn't mean we should get all giddy and start wheeling and dealing. Shopping for prospects in another team's organization is a "grass is always greener on the other side of the fence" fantasy. A small market team has to build from within, not from without. A rebuilding team has to put its own "prospects" to the test. Otherwise they'll never know if they can successfully draft and develop quality players. Or accurately determine their own roster weaknesses. Tell me how this Wilk/Haley thing is working out.

 

The only thing worse for a rebuilding team than shopping elsewhere for "available" prospects is trading for an aging veteran. In which case we give up prospects; which amounts to trading the future for the past. We're either building for the future, or we're not. Renting an aging veteran for a year or two is not rebuilding.

 

My less than humble opinion is the Twins should plug Berrios and Mejia into the rotation for the remainder of the season and ignore any ups-and-downs in performance. Let 'em take their lumps. Move whoever you have to move to keep them in the rotation. Give away players to make room if you have to. Keep Santana as their rock. By season's end our stats and data guys will be able to determine without any doubt if either or both Berrios and Mejia are part of the Twins future.

 

Don't worry about offensive production from our catchers this season. With a young rotation stability behind the plate is more important than a couple more singles. From what I've read on TD we have a couple of decent prospects at the position. Push them with the goal one will be on the Big Team next year, the other in AAA.

 

Our outfield is set. Let those guys play. If we do turn up another quality outfielder in the organization, think about moving one of these guys to first base.

 

Infield is adequate to better-than-expected. The only real question here, if we're rebuilding, is who's going to replace Mauer at first base. That should be the question every scout and minor league coach has to think about now. Two years from now, when we're past the rebuilding stage, we don't want to be experimenting with replacements. That can't be a "hole". Find that guy now. If it's going to be someone like Kepler, start giving him more time over there this season. If the guy is the minors, start pushing him hard. Test him at all levels. Don't wait for two years and find out he's still at Double A learning how to tie his cleats.

 

Whoa, my fingers are getting tired. Time to stop and mull.

[clone52]

I honestly don't think the bullpen is a question mark at all.  Currently they are 18th in baseball in ERA and have a 4.18 ERA.  Pretty mediocre, but look beneath the numbers.

 

The Twins had 2 travesty games.  If you take those 2 games away, the bullpen has a 2.95 ERA good enough for 4th best in baseball.

 

Taking those same 2 games away, Matt Belisle has a 1.25 ERA in 16 games instead of a 7.80 ERA.  Taylor Rogers has a 1.22 ERA in 20 games instead of a 3.52 ERA.  Even Haley would have a 4.2 ERA instead of 6.60.

 

That really gives them 5 very solid guys in Kintzler, Duffey, Breslow, Belisle and Rogers.  

 

Really, Pressley is the only hole in the bullpen and even he has looked good the past few games.  Adam Wilk as well I guess, but they probably need him for mop-up duty with such a thin rotation.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

That really gives them 5 very solid guys in Kintzler, Duffey, Breslow, Belisle and Rogers. 

 

True.  But 5 solid guys these days, without 2 exceptional lights out guys, do not make a competitive bullpen.   Would those lights out guys be Burdi and Chargois?  Maybe, but the Twins need that

[drivlikejehu]

 

I honestly don't think the bullpen is a question mark at all.  Currently they are 18th in baseball in ERA and have a 4.18 ERA.  Pretty mediocre, but look beneath the numbers.

 

The Twins had 2 travesty games.  If you take those 2 games away, the bullpen has a 2.95 ERA good enough for 4th best in baseball.

 

Taking those same 2 games away, Matt Belisle has a 1.25 ERA in 16 games instead of a 7.80 ERA.  Taylor Rogers has a 1.22 ERA in 20 games instead of a 3.52 ERA.  Even Haley would have a 4.2 ERA instead of 6.60.

 

That really gives them 5 very solid guys in Kintzler, Duffey, Breslow, Belisle and Rogers.  

 

Really, Pressley is the only hole in the bullpen and even he has looked good the past few games.  Adam Wilk as well I guess, but they probably need him for mop-up duty with such a thin rotation.

 

It doesn't work that way. You can't take away the Twins' bullpen implosions and then keep them in place for every other team. Well, you can I guess, but it's a meaningless exercise that proves nothing.

 

Now, the bullpen has been better than expected, but there are still a lot of marginal arms in there. The quality is pretty much Duffey, and then Rogers as a lefty specialist. Kintzler is okay. There's nothing beyond that except the hope that Pressly finally gets it together.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the pen is fixable internally, and I have to think Duffey will be moved to the rotation if there's another injury or neither Gibson/Mejia step up. Not much in AAA right now in terms of starters that I'd be comfortable bringing up... maybe Wheeler... possibly Gonsalves later this year.

 

Really, they need to get some of the AAA kids up in the pen, if for no other reason than to see if they can open a door for Duffey in the rotation.

[JustinCB]

 

It doesn't work that way. You can't take away the Twins' bullpen implosions and then keep them in place for every other team. Well, you can I guess, but it's a meaningless exercise that proves nothing.

 

Now, the bullpen has been better than expected, but there are still a lot of marginal arms in there. The quality is pretty much Duffey, and then Rogers as a lefty specialist. Kintzler is okay. There's nothing beyond that except the hope that Pressly finally gets it together.

John Reis baby!

[clone52]

 

It doesn't work that way. You can't take away the Twins' bullpen implosions and then keep them in place for every other team. Well, you can I guess, but it's a meaningless exercise that proves nothing.

 

Now, the bullpen has been better than expected, but there are still a lot of marginal arms in there. The quality is pretty much Duffey, and then Rogers as a lefty specialist. Kintzler is okay. There's nothing beyond that except the hope that Pressly finally gets it together.

 

Thats a fair point, but I doubt many other team have 2 games where their bullpen gave up 22 earned runs.  I'd be willing to bet that if you dropped the worst 2 games on every team's bullpen, the Twins would still have a Top 10 bullpen.

[clone52]

 

Thats a fair point, but I doubt many other team have 2 games where their bullpen gave up 22 earned runs.  I'd be willing to bet that if you dropped the worst 2 games on every team's bullpen, the Twins would still have a Top 10 bullpen.

 

For example, Tampa Bay is currently 10th best bullpen ERA in baseball, at 3.72.  If you remove their 2 worst games, their ERA drops to 3.10.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The offense looks pretty sustainable except for Sano's BABIP, and I expect Dozier, whose career screams "I hit poorly in April", will pick up and make up for what we lose in Sano's normalizing BABIP. 

 

It comes down to pitching, and specifically starting pitching. I would not take a rental, but would look for a salary dump pitcher who can help this team for a couple of years, minimum.

I'm still looking at this as a playoff team next year, not this year.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Derek Wetmore raises similar questions in his recent post, http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/key-twins-quarter-mark-questions-r5627

 

Notably,"3. Get more offense out of the catchers."

 

Last night, Mitch Garver was 3-4 with a homer and a double. I'd like to see him play every day in Rochester, but while Ehire Adrianza sits on the bench behind Eduardo Escobar, I wonder if a call-up/swap with Adrianza isn't a move worth making later, or sooner.

[clone52]

 

Derek Wetmore raises similar questions in his recent post, http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/key-twins-quarter-mark-questions-r5627

 

Notably,"3. Get more offense out of the catchers."

 

Last night, Mitch Garver was 3-4 with a homer and a double. I'd like to see him play every day in Rochester, but while Ehire Adrianza sits on the bench behind Eduardo Escobar, I wonder if a call-up/swap with Adrianza isn't a move worth making later, or sooner.

 

My only concern on boosting the offense of the catchers is whether the catchers are the main reason our pitchers are competing.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Derek Wetmore raises similar questions in his recent post, http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/key-twins-quarter-mark-questions-r5627

 

Notably,"3. Get more offense out of the catchers."

 

Last night, Mitch Garver was 3-4 with a homer and a double. I'd like to see him play every day in Rochester, but while Ehire Adrianza sits on the bench behind Eduardo Escobar, I wonder if a call-up/swap with Adrianza isn't a move worth making later, or sooner.

You got to give Garver credit. His OPS is screaming, "Get me out of here".

I get that this FO is committed to Gimenez, but NO ONE on the AAA roster has an OPS anywhere near Garver's .893.

Very encouraging.

[Dr. Evil]

 

Let's not get carried away. Most of us would have been plumb tickled to death if the Twins were not at the bottom of the division at this point in the season. The fact that they're overachieving our expectations doesn't mean we should get all giddy and start wheeling and dealing. Shopping for prospects in another team's organization is a "grass is always greener on the other side of the fence" fantasy. A small market team has to build from within, not from without. A rebuilding team has to put its own "prospects" to the test. Otherwise they'll never know if they can successfully draft and develop quality players. Or accurately determine their own roster weaknesses. Tell me how this Wilk/Haley thing is working out.

 

The only thing worse for a rebuilding team than shopping elsewhere for "available" prospects is trading for an aging veteran. In which case we give up prospects; which amounts to trading the future for the past. We're either building for the future, or we're not. Renting an aging veteran for a year or two is not rebuilding.

 

My less than humble opinion is the Twins should plug Berrios and Mejia into the rotation for the remainder of the season and ignore any ups-and-downs in performance. Let 'em take their lumps. Move whoever you have to move to keep them in the rotation. Give away players to make room if you have to. Keep Santana as their rock. By season's end our stats and data guys will be able to determine without any doubt if either or both Berrios and Mejia are part of the Twins future.

 

Don't worry about offensive production from our catchers this season. With a young rotation stability behind the plate is more important than a couple more singles. From what I've read on TD we have a couple of decent prospects at the position. Push them with the goal one will be on the Big Team next year, the other in AAA.

 

Our outfield is set. Let those guys play. If we do turn up another quality outfielder in the organization, think about moving one of these guys to first base.

 

Infield is adequate to better-than-expected. The only real question here, if we're rebuilding, is who's going to replace Mauer at first base. That should be the question every scout and minor league coach has to think about now. Two years from now, when we're past the rebuilding stage, we don't want to be experimenting with replacements. That can't be a "hole". Find that guy now. If it's going to be someone like Kepler, start giving him more time over there this season. If the guy is the minors, start pushing him hard. Test him at all levels. Don't wait for two years and find out he's still at Double A learning how to tie his cleats.

 

Whoa, my fingers are getting tired. Time to stop and mull.

I double like this line of thinking!

[drivlikejehu]

 

Thats a fair point, but I doubt many other team have 2 games where their bullpen gave up 22 earned runs.  I'd be willing to bet that if you dropped the worst 2 games on every team's bullpen, the Twins would still have a Top 10 bullpen.

 

Right, but then you are using the worst 2 games as an arbitrary dividing line. Why shouldn't it be the worst 4 games?

 

The larger issue though is that you're suggesting those terrible performances are exceptions and the excellent performances are the norm. But there is no evidence that the Twins bullpen has been unlucky overall - their ERA is fully in line with other metrics showing that they are somewhat below average. So if anything, the runs allowed distribution has been favorable to the Twins, because so many were bunched into a couple of hopeless contests.

 

The better bet in the future is that runs will be allowed on a more distributed basis, which will have a greater negative impact on the team because of leverage.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Derek Wetmore raises similar questions in his recent post, http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/key-twins-quarter-mark-questions-r5627

 

Notably,"3. Get more offense out of the catchers."

 

Last night, Mitch Garver was 3-4 with a homer and a double. I'd like to see him play every day in Rochester, but while Ehire Adrianza sits on the bench behind Eduardo Escobar, I wonder if a call-up/swap with Adrianza isn't a move worth making later, or sooner.

I'm still going to need to see more from Garver. He only has a combined 160 PAs in Rochester over two seasons. His OPS was .688 in A+ and .753 in AA.

 

I hope his bat is legit but I'm still worried that what we're seeing is a mirage.

[Willihammer]

 

My only concern on boosting the offense of the catchers is whether the catchers are the main reason our pitchers are competing.

Yeah, ditto Buxton.

 

I would be looking at Rosario instead.

 

BTW here is the link to the Wetmore piece:

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/05/wetmores-5-thoughts-5-things-twins-can-keep-good-times-rolling/

[BlackJackMorris]

My two main thoughts...

 

1) Rosario seems to be the main asset that we can trade for a decent pitcher

2) Duffey should/will get a chance in the rotation if a trade is not made

[Ryan Atkins]

 

Cleveland's best pitcher, Corey Kluber, is on the disabled list and they've played below .500 at home.

 

The Twins have been equally poor at home. They need to learn how to win at home. It should be an advantage, not a liability. If their road domination were to continue, they would only need to play .500 at home to have a good chance at the post season.

 

And most importantly, I agree, beat your central division foes.

[Willihammer]

I'm enjoying the ride too but I can't take it as given that the Twins are on an upward trajectory and will automatically  be better in 2018 and beyond just because the core is young. Knuckle pushups, toy drones, intoxicated boating trips, etc (ok those are extreme examples). But there's no sure things in sports so when you find yourself in first place at this juncture then almost always you should be thinking along the lines of carpe diem IMO.

[Willihammer]

That said, ideally they find a way to improve the club in 2018 as well. If not 2019 too.

[Tibs]

 

The offense looks pretty sustainable except for Sano's BABIP, and I expect Dozier, whose career screams "I hit poorly in April", will pick up and make up for what we lose in Sano's normalizing BABIP. 

 

It comes down to pitching, and specifically starting pitching. I would not take a rental, but would look for a salary dump pitcher who can help this team for a couple of years, minimum.

I'm still looking at this as a playoff team next year, not this year.

If the ball keeps leaving Sano's bat at 100+ mph every time he makes contact I don't see his BABIP going down much.