Trade or stand pat

[sthpstm]

In order to not derail the "Young Guns" article thread any further: 

Should the Twins be looking to package a few prospects for a proven starting pitcher now or should they wait and see how the team performs over the next month or two?

[yarnivek1972]

Wait until they have actually played against some good teams. The Twins have yet to face the 3 best teams in the AL.

[DocBauer]

Wait and see. This is fun, interesting, and this is a nice looking young team, regardless of ultimate finish.

 

The lineup, again, mostly young, is playing fine defense and growing offensively. There is a real chance the rotation will include Santana, Santiago, Berrios and Mejia for the bulk of the season: one older vet, one younger vet and a pair of talented youngsters. The 5th spot is a question mark, but no need to panic just yet. See if Gibson can get it together and just be solid. Maybe Hughes is solid after rest. Maybe by then someone is ready for a shot.

 

We can't forget this is STILL a rebuilding, budding team with bullpen help coming soon and some solid prospects coming soon. Unless you can steal someone, or make a prospect trade that isn't steep and can bring you someone you can hold on to and count for at least a few years (doubtful) roll with what you have and fill in the 5th spot the best you can.

[John Kelsey]

No way, I would not even be close to trading prospects yet. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It doesn't matter. I doubt any team is willing to trade a good starting pitcher right now for anything less than a king's ransom.

[bighat]

A lot of hand-wringing here about trading young prospects.  Not here.   I say if the Twins are in the race, go for it.  Remember, in 1987: "We were just trying to get organized to compete a few years down the road, and ended up winning the whole damn thing". 

 

I'm not saying trade Buxton for Bronson Arroyo or anything.   But I do think that the Twins should go right ahead and make a move for a starting pitcher IF they are in the race at the break.  Why not?  Go for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Remember, in 1987: "We were just trying to get organized to compete a few years down the road, and ended up winning the whole damn thing".

It's a hell of a lot harder to pull that off today. In 1987, the Twins had to win eight games to carry home a World Series trophy.

 

Today, you need to win 11 games as a division champion, 12 if you get in via the Wild Card.

 

Each additional series exposes the weaknesses of any given team. It's still not impossible for a seriously flawed team to win it all but it is more unlikely.

[Blake]

 

No way, I would not even be close to trading prospects yet. 

I do not believe this is the time to go all in for some sort of rental. If a trade is made at the deadline, I think it should be for a player the Twins plan on keeping for a couple of years. (by player, I mean pitcher)

[USAFChief]

Go get some help.  Sitting around waiting for the stars to align is the worst possible strategy.

[bird]

I recognize my strategy would be somewhat contrarian but:

 

A lot of things would have to go right for the team to remain in contention. Santana would have to rebound back to #2/3 type production, Berrios and Mejia would have to give us #2/3 and #3/4 production, Santiago would have to be a #3/4, and no injuries among them. Likewise, no injuries to our top 5 or 6 position players. Additionally, at least one and probably two relievers would have to surface and immediately produce in high leverage situations. 

 

So, I'd take my slim chances that I could be a seller and maybe still get lucky and have a long shot at the playoffs here in 2017. I'd be a seller of surplus, specifically looking for an overpay in prospects. I would not be expecting to find immediate rotation help from the outside, because the demands are going to exceed my tastes. 

 

I'd "solve" my immediate rotation problem by (gulp) either plugging my nose and relying on Hughes and Gibson, or by dipping down to get Gonsalves, Slegers, or even Romero and hoping to be surprised. (I'm really missing Trevor May!)

 

So, I'm shopping Dozier for sure. I'm listening to offers for my bullpen arms and would be willing to part with any of them. I have a price in mind for each. A steep price. I doubt teams will be lining up. Same with Santana and Santiago, but it would have to be a fantastic haul to get me to pull the trigger for either of them. 

 

And if by some fluke Dozier, packaged with a couple of legit prospects like Vielma/Palacios and/or Baxendale/Bard (surplus) could fetch us a promising young rotation arm, great.

[Loosey]

I'm in the camp that says do not mortgage the future.  If this is how the team plays when they are developing imagine how good they could be down the road once these young guns get into their mid-late 20's.  Winning it all in 2017 would be an incredible story but not at the expense of being a team that could have championship aspirations from 2018-2022.

[Vanimal46]

Which prospects are we waiting for again? 2 starting pitchers and 75,000 bullpen arms? Yeah, go get some help. 

[Mike Sixel]

I still want more data. I don't think this team is going to win at this pace, but if they still are in another 30-50 games or so....then I would be willing to make some deals.

 

Every pitcher in the minors is available, as far as I am concerned, depending on years of control on the guy are you are getting.. Really, only Gordon is one player I would not deal right now.

[TheLeviathan]

If you decide to "get help" this year it should be by trading Dozier and Santana for long term help. And that's only if pumpkin Dozier wakes up again.

 

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

This is my feeling as well. I'll start to revaluate around mid-June. I'm just enjoying good baseball right now and remain unconvinced it will continue at this pace.

 

I'm starting to suspect the Twins will finish with >78 wins but that's still 8-ish wins from postseason contention.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The Twins have fifty games over the next fifty days, leading up to the break. I prefer this approach:

 

 

I'd "solve" my immediate rotation problem by (gulp) either plugging my nose and relying on Hughes and Gibson, or by dipping down to get Gonsalves, Slegers, or even Romero and hoping to be surprised

 

Depending upon the AL Central standings on July 10, the front office will decide whether it's time to buy or sell. 

[wsnydes]

 

If you decide to "get help" this year it should be by trading Dozier and Santana for long term help. And that's only if pumpkin Dozier wakes up again.

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

I think it's far too early to make any sort of evaluations.  There is still a lot of season left before the trade deadline.  Get to July 1 or the AS break and then we can start having this discussion.  It's still just too early.  I still think they're playing over their heads.  I'd also unload the Dozier's and Santana's before I start dealing the youth unless the right fit comes along that makes dealing said youth more sensical.  

[Shaitan]

I'd consider a Rick Reed type player now, but that's about it. Nothing that requires any high end talent. Re-explore around the All Star Break.

[howieramone2]

 

If you decide to "get help" this year it should be by trading Dozier and Santana for long term help. And that's only if pumpkin Dozier wakes up again.

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

Trading Dozier and Santana for pie-in-the sky would position us to compete in 2020. Falvey, the 25 guys in the locker room and myself are not going to wait that long.

[USAFChief]

 

 

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

Maybe if you change the conversation now, it changes where you're at on July 1.

[gocgo]

Well, we are a quarter of the way into the season and things are beginning to take shape.  I hear the "wait until we play the good teams" calls, but if you look at what we have and compare it to other teams, we're looking pretty good.  

 

We have a game changer roaming center field and when he gets on base, he's the kind of guy that makes a pitcher rush his pitches to the plate and catchers worry.

 

Sano is also a game changer.  He's one of the best hitters in the game.  He hits the ball sooo hard that his exit velocity is nearly 4 mph higher than anyone else in the league.

 

Berrios could be a game changer...we'll see.

 

Polanco is a pleasant surprise so far.  He's not spectacular, but as long as he hits...and he can hit...all he has to be is solid in the field.

 

Rosario is quietly having a solid season.  I'll take .275 and solid D in left field.

 

Kepler is good and will continue to get better.

 

I haven't even mentioned Dozier and Mauer.  So, where are we at?

 

We need an upgrade near the back of the rotation.  We need better offensive production from the catcher position.  We need more power from the DH position to protect Sano.  We need more cowbell...for God's sake, more cowbell.

 

I'm not opposed to trading prospects to meet those needs, but the future is looking pretty good already. I don't think we need to pull an "all in" like the White Sox...how'd that work out?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trading Dozier and Santana for pie-in-the sky would position us to compete in 2020. Falvey, the 25 guys in the locker room and myself are not going to wait that long.

Santana, probably. Dozier, maybe not.

 

Polanco is holding his own and Gordon is absolutely destroying Chattanooga. The middle infield situation looks pretty good right now and if Dozier heats up, I'd definitely put him on the market. Maybe you don't get a good enough offer and that's okay but if you have positional excess, trading some of it away is usually a good idea.

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe if you change the conversation now, it changes where you're at on July 1.

The problem is that the Twins still really have played mostly bad teams. Yesterday was their first game against any of the 3 best teams in the AL. And they lucked out into seeing their # 5 and a reliever who is not a MLB caliber pitcher. The Twins are still just 2-4 against the Tigers and Indians, two teams expected to be in contention from the Central. They just lost 2 of 3 to the Rockies and a ways back 2 of 3 to the BoSox. Frankly, the Twins record is largely a product of beating down the Royals and White Sox. When they prove they can hang with good teams, I'll take notice. This series is a good test.

[Thrylos]

 

If you decide to "get help" this year it should be by trading Dozier and Santana for long term help. And that's only if pumpkin Dozier wakes up again.

If they are in first by July 1 the conversation changes, but that's a ways off.

 

Agreed, esp. on Dozier.  You deal from a position of strength, and unlike starting pitching, middle infield has been   a strength in the organization.  However,  I would not hesitate to add a prospect like Stewart, to a deal for a better return.

 

Makes no sense hording prospects until they become non-prospects or goners.  Case in point Adam Walker.  Would the Twins be better of trading him or adding him to a package than what they got from him, of course they would.   At some point you got to let go, esp. those in-betweeners...

[yarnivek1972]

Agreed, esp. on Dozier. You deal from a position of strength, and unlike starting pitching, middle infield has been a strength in the organization. However, I would not hesitate to add a prospect like Stewart, to a deal for a better return.

 

Makes no sense hording prospects until they become non-prospects or goners. Case in point Adam Walker. Would the Twins be better of trading him or adding him to a package than what they got from him, of course they would. At some point you got to let go, esp. those in-betweeners...

Not likely going to be able to trade an injured prospect, like Stewart.

[Doomtints]

 

In order to not derail the "Young Guns" article thread any further: 

Should the Twins be looking to package a few prospects for a proven starting pitcher now or should they wait and see how the team performs over the next month or two?

Not only should they not do this now, they should not do it in a month or two.

[Thrylos]

 

Not likely going to be able to trade an injured prospect, like Stewart.

 

Someone like Stewart's prospect level, not injury level.  Gee.  And Stewart has knee issues and when healthy he is treadable.  I think that you are missing and/or ignoring the point here...

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe if you change the conversation now, it changes where you're at on July 1.

 

The cost of changing that conversation now ranges from stupid to impossible.  So while what you are saying makes a good bumper sticker, reality isn't going to cooperate the way you think.

 

Even for Clayton Richard you're going to pay more than you want.  

[Tibs]

Neither. There is almost no way I would consider trading any prospects to go for it this year.

[howieramone2]

 

The cost of changing that conversation now ranges from stupid to impossible.  So while what you are saying makes a good bumper sticker, reality isn't going to cooperate the way you think.

 

Even for Clayton Richard you're going to pay more than you want.  

We're going to trade pie-the-sky for a proven starter. That's no where near more than what I want to pay.