Trade or stand pat

[TheLeviathan]

 

We're going to trade pie-the-sky for a proven starter. That's no where near more than what I want to pay.

 

You don't know what you'd have to give and what you'd get.  Clayton Richard might cost you Gonsalves.

 

I doubt most people here would do that.

[rghrbek]

Hard for me to get to excited about playoff possibilities this early.  Berrieos, Mejia unproven at this level and you simply cannot rely on them to help make a playoff push.  Gibby and Huges...done, imo.  Santiago...maybe you have something.  Maybe.

 

So that leaves us with Santana and 0 pitching depth.  Trading for one more pitcher makes us contenders?  Get them to July first and see what our young kids have done in the rotation...

 

We don't have many trade chips outside of Dozier, which if you are making a playoff run, you wouldn't trade.

 

I would throw out Eddie Rosario, he of the .254/.273/.661 slash line.  I know people love Eddie, but these numbers are close to his career norms.  I think we are starting to see that he is what he is.  A good fielding LF, who is a below average player at the plate.  With Lamonte Wade doing what he is doing at Chattanooga and a former college player, I would very much consider this options along with some prospects if we get to that point.  Not to mention Britton at AAA.

[yarnivek1972]

Someone like Stewart's prospect level, not injury level. Gee. And Stewart has knee issues and when healthy he is treadable. I think that you are missing and/or ignoring the point here...

I don't think I am. The fact that Stewart is injured substantially reduces his prospect status IMO. And in Stewart's case you are already talking about a guy who's stock dropped quite a bit from the start of 2016 to the start of 2017.

 

So, are you talking about a guy who's preseason ranking was 6th in the organization, or now that he was off to a bad start AND is hurt, maybe a guy outside the top 10 in the org?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Most people here are not in the FO. They are not in the equation whatsoever. 

 

I hate to disappoint you, but the Twins front office is not going to make a trade like Gonsalves for Richard. 0% chance this year.

[Guest]

You don't know what you'd have to give and what you'd get.  Clayton Richard might cost you Gonsalves.

 

I doubt most people here would do that.

Last year, to acquire Drew Pomeranz, the Red Sox traded a top 25 prospect. Gonsalves is not a top 100 prospect. Unless someone thinks Richard is nowhere near as good as Pomeranz (raising the question as to why you'd even want him), it's going to take more than Gonsalves to get him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Last year, to acquire Drew Pomeranz, the Red Sox traded a top 25 prospect. Gonsalves is not a top 100 prospect. Unless someone thinks Richard is nowhere near as good as Pomeranz (raising the question as to why you'd even want him), it's going to take more than Gonsalves to get him.

 

Yeah, I was trying to give a mild version of how bitter this would be.  I don't think people fully appreciate what they are advocating.

[Sssuperdave]

I often read the phrase "Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen", but I don't really believe it.  I know there have been wild card teams that won the WS, but back in the 00s when the Twins made the playoffs in 6 of 9 years I never felt they had a reasonable shot at winning the World Series, and they only made it out of the LDS once.

 

If everything breaks right this team might make the playoffs, especially considering how weak the Central is, but even if they added another starter I just don't see them beating the Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, or Cubs in the postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Last year, to acquire Drew Pomeranz, the Red Sox traded a top 25 prospect. Gonsalves is not a top 100 prospect. Unless someone thinks Richard is nowhere near as good as Pomeranz (raising the question as to why you'd even want him), it's going to take more than Gonsalves to get him.

Richard is indeed nowhere near as good as Pomeranz circa July 2016.  I'm really not sure why we'd want him, unless the Padres were giving him away (and I don't think there is any evidence suggesting that they are willing to do so).

 

Clayton Richard's career ERA- as a starter is 110.  He's got a 104 this season.  (100 is average, lower is better.)  He only threw 80 innings all of last season, and is already at 62 this year.  His last full season as a starter was 2012.  He's also 33 years old and a free agent after the season.

 

Gonsalves might fetch Richard, but why?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Last year, to acquire Drew Pomeranz, the Red Sox traded a top 25 prospect. Gonsalves is not a top 100 prospect. Unless someone thinks Richard is nowhere near as good as Pomeranz (raising the question as to why you'd even want him), it's going to take more than Gonsalves to get him.

 

The Red Sox got 2.5 years of Pomeranz, vs. the 0.5 years of Richard available. That's obviously a huge difference.

 

San Diego definitely will not get a top 25 prospect for Richard. Even top 100 is a stretch.

[Vanimal46]

Maybe if you change the conversation now, it changes where you're at on July 1.

Concur. A lot of us here in 2015 were upset that the past regime didn't make moves until trade deadline day... And didn't commit one way or another whether they were going for it, or selling.

 

I don't have any delusions this is a World Series team, but I'm so very tired of standing pat and losing. A playoff berth this season could do wonders for the young core.

 

Also, if they stand pat, they're in the same exact position next season. Good offense, not enough pitching.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't think I am. The fact that Stewart is injured substantially reduces his prospect status IMO. And in Stewart's case you are already talking about a guy who's stock dropped quite a bit from the start of 2016 to the start of 2017.

So, are you talking about a guy who's preseason ranking was 6th in the organization, or now that he was off to a bad start AND is hurt, maybe a guy outside the top 10 in the org?

 

Depends on the trade.  If it will bring back a younger controllable pitcher, like Sean Manaea or Aaron Nola,  I would not mind if they trade any prospect in the organization, other than Jay and Burdi who can help potentially this season and Fernando Romero who I think can be special.   If they want to go after someone like Dan Straily or Clayton Richard or Yovani Gallardo, then the prospects I would be willing to include would be lesser...

 

(Disclaimer:  the names are for indicative purposes - I don't see the Philies trading Nola, for example.  Just examples of pitcher types...)

 

[wsnydes]

 

Concur. A lot of us here in 2015 were upset that the past regime didn't make moves until trade deadline day... And didn't commit one way or another whether they were going for it, or selling.

I don't have any delusions this is a World Series team, but I'm so very tired of standing pat and losing. A playoff berth this season could do wonders for the young core.

Also, if they stand pat, they're in the same exact position next season. Good offense, not enough pitching.

I'm not sure anyone is wanting them to stand pat.  They should make moves this season, whether it be now or at the deadline.  Standing pat is definitely not the way to go.  Those that are still a bit more patient, myself included, see this team as a pretender so trading away prospects doesn't make a lot of sense unless it's the right fit.  To us, myself included, trading the veterans with value for younger players that will contribute long term makes more sense.  This team is more than a few pieces away from being a legitimate contender, so trading away the farm doesn't make a lot of sense in our view.  Two or even three added pieces simply brings the Twins closer to legit, but likely won't make them legit.  That's why those of us in this line of thinking wanted more action in the offseason so that the potential to make some moves at this deadline would actually make a difference now.  That's not to say that we're correct, that's just our opinion.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You don't know what you'd have to give and what you'd get.  Clayton Richard might cost you Gonsalves.

 

I doubt most people here would do that.

That's where I'd start were I in the Padres front office. Maybe you can talk them down to a player slightly further back in the system but they're going to want talent in return for a capable, though underwhelming, starter.

 

And I simply don't feel good enough about this team to give up Gonsalves. Maybe next season if the Twins pick up an FA starter and a few bullpen pieces graduate.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm not sure anyone is wanting them to stand pat.  They should make moves this season, whether it be now or at the deadline.  Standing pat is definitely not the way to go.  Those that are still a bit more patient, myself included, see this team as a pretender so trading away prospects doesn't make a lot of sense unless it's the right fit.  To us, myself included, trading the veterans with value for younger players that will contribute long term makes more sense.  This team is more than a few pieces away from being a legitimate contender, so trading away the farm doesn't make a lot of sense in our view.  Two or even three added pieces simply brings the Twins closer to legit, but likely won't make them legit.  That's why those of us in this line of thinking wanted more action in the offseason so that the potential to make some moves at this deadline would actually make a difference now.  That's not to say that we're correct, that's just our opinion.  

 

I can appreciate this view, and I certainly wanted more action last off-season to make moves at the deadline that would make a difference right now. Before the season I was operating under the assumption this was a ~75 win team... But, given that the White Sox and Royals have crashed and burned, there's more opportunity to sneak up on teams.

 

Frankly, it's not guaranteed that the young core will be healthy and producing every year. It'd be nice to take advantage of Sano's MVP-like numbers, and see if they could sneak in as a wild card or division winner to build confidence with the young players. 

[Vanimal46]

 

That's where I'd start were I in the Padres front office. Maybe you can talk them down to a player slightly further back in the system but they're going to want talent in return for a capable, though underwhelming, starter.

 

And I simply don't feel good enough about this team to give up Gonsalves. Maybe next season if the Twins pick up an FA starter and a few bullpen pieces graduate.

 

Hate to break it to you, but the FA pitching class looks pretty weak again. They're certainly out of the race for Arrietta. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

Depends on the trade.  If it will bring back a younger controllable pitcher, like Sean Manaea or Aaron Nola,  I would not mind if they trade any prospect in the organization, other than Jay and Burdi who can help potentially this season and Fernando Romero who I think can be special.   If they want to go after someone like Dan Straily or Clayton Richard or Yovani Gallardo, then the prospects I would be willing to include would be lesser...

 

(Disclaimer:  the names are for indicative purposes - I don't see the Philies trading Nola, for example.  Just examples of pitcher types...)

 

 

I fail to understand why any team would trade young, controllable pitchers that are doing well (like Manaea or Nola).  If you are rebuilding, those are the guys you build around.  If you are contending, chances are they are a big part of the reason why.

 

Let's put it this way, would you trade Jose Berrios?  Would trading him really be any different than the A's trading Manaea? Or the Yankees trading Luis Severino?

[Thrylos]

 

I fail to understand why any team would trade young, controllable pitchers that are doing well (like Manaea or Nola).  If you are rebuilding, those are the guys you build around.  If you are contending, chances are they are a big part of the reason why.

 

Let's put it this way, would you trade Jose Berrios?  Would trading him really be any different than the A's trading Manaea? Or the Yankees trading Luis Severino?

 

Ivan Nova.  How about Nova?  Controllable for 2 more seasons with a modest contract that would cover his prime seasons.  I think that he would make a good addition.  

 

If you are rebuilding and you are Oakland (or Tampa) and have not reached an agreement to extend a good young pitcher through their arbitration seasons, you trade them before they get too expensive during arbitration.  That's has been their MO.  If you are the Yankees (or Phillies) you don't care. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Concur. A lot of us here in 2015 were upset that the past regime didn't make moves until trade deadline day... And didn't commit one way or another whether they were going for it, or selling.

To be fair, it's hard to make moves earlier than late July.  Even teams that are decidedly sellers tend to wait for the market to develop unless they get blown away by an offer early, especially for good players that should be in demand.  And sometimes teams decide not to sell - I remember targeting the Padres' Benoit all summer in 2015, but ultimately the Padres didn't trade anyone (and actually added another veteran arm for their own pen.)

[wsnydes]

 

I can appreciate this view, and I certainly wanted more action last off-season to make moves at the deadline that would make a difference right now. Before the season I was operating under the assumption this was a ~75 win team... But, given that the White Sox and Royals have crashed and burned, there's more opportunity to sneak up on teams.

 

Frankly, it's not guaranteed that the young core will be healthy and producing every year. It'd be nice to take advantage of Sano's MVP-like numbers, and see if they could sneak in as a wild card or division winner to build confidence with the young players. 

I get what you're saying, but they've only got 22 games against those two teams remaining and the Twins record against the rest of the league isn't nearly as good.  They're 12-4 against KC and the ChiSox and 11-14 against the rest of the league.  I have a hard time believing that this team is legitimate enough against good teams to make a serious push.  I'd love to see them in the playoffs, but I'm only willing to give up so much for another first round slaughtering.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ivan Nova.  How about Nova?  Controllable for 2 more seasons with a modest contract that would cover his prime seasons.  I think that he would make a good addition.

Nova might be pretty expensive, perhaps prohibitively so until July.  He's had a 150 ERA+ in 20 starts so far for Pittsburgh.  Even if the Pirates eventually commit to selling, they might try to swing a blockbuster for Cole and keep a guy like Nova to reload for 2018.

[drjim]

I don't see a starter available right now. You can have all the conversations you want.

 

Mid-July, if the Twins hang on, can be a lot different story.

[Rosterman]

You move Dozier, as well as any bulpen arms you can and keep looking at YOUR prospects. The team is full of prospects who are just showing some promise, but maybe not quite there.

 

If another team comes calling for Santana, you maybe bite. Depends on how Gonsalves starts to show in the minors.

 

You can also be shopping Santiago as he will be a free agent. I don't see paying him to be a rotation mainstay for the future. Would rather see that money spent elsewhere.

 

You still got two months to see what you have, and see what you can get. But I would be looking more at younger arms in the rotation and bullpen than any of the minor league free agents you signed.

 

There's still a few places that you can re-fill on the 40-man, not to mention the current 25-man.

[goulik]

Would I make a trade if it improves the team? Yeah, but I think any palatable trade would be with another team in a similar position to us (pseudo contender with a major weakness) except a team with extra pitching (which rarely exists). We would have to trade out of our excess to get their excess.

 

Example: find a Team that has 7 ready pitchers desperate for an outfielder AND DH (Really really desperate) AND Wade is ready in FO mind. Start Trade talk with Park and Rosario for pitcher controllable for 2-3 years that can win about but not quite half his games. Others that could become part of the conversation would be Gimenez (Garver ready), Murphy, Grossman, Vielma, Polanco, (Gordon ready), Escobar.

 

There are some things you could do but your getting back limited upside. I don't think you need to go all in but what is expected in return needs to be tempered as well

[drjim]

 

You move Dozier, as well as any bulpen arms you can and keep looking at YOUR prospects. The team is full of prospects who are just showing some promise, but maybe not quite there.

 

If another team comes calling for Santana, you maybe bite. Depends on how Gonsalves starts to show in the minors.

 

You can also be shopping Santiago as he will be a free agent. I don't see paying him to be a rotation mainstay for the future. Would rather see that money spent elsewhere.

 

You still got two months to see what you have, and see what you can get. But I would be looking more at younger arms in the rotation and bullpen than any of the minor league free agents you signed.

 

There's still a few places that you can re-fill on the 40-man, not to mention the current 25-man.

 

What prospects are you talking about?

 

This plan would make much more sense if the Twins were 10 games under .500, not in first place.

[USAFChief]

 

I don't see a starter available right now. You can have all the conversations you want.

 

Mid-July, if the Twins hang on, can be a lot different story.

That may very well be true, hard to say.

 

But the Twins should be out asking, IMO.

[sthpstm]

 

I get what you're saying, but they've only got 22 games against those two teams remaining and the Twins record against the rest of the league isn't nearly as good.  They're 12-4 against KC and the ChiSox and 11-14 against the rest of the league.  I have a hard time believing that this team is legitimate enough against good teams to make a serious push.  I'd love to see them in the playoffs, but I'm only willing to give up so much for another first round slaughtering.  

They have been better this month against teams at or above .500 (5-5 instead 4-8 in April) so who knows.

But I agree with you. I wouldn't give up top prospects at this time, but I do think the team should look to shore up the back end of the bullpen with a veteran who might be capable of performing better than they have to this point this year such as Liriano, Gallardo, Colon, etc.

[wsnydes]

 

They have been better this month against teams at or above .500 (5-5 instead 4-8 in April) so who knows.

But I agree with you. I wouldn't give up top prospects at this time, but I do think the team should look to shore up the back end of the bullpen with a veteran who might be capable of performing better than they have to this point this year such as Liriano, Gallardo, Colon, etc.

That's just it, it's May.  This team might take off and become more legit than anyone could imagine, or they could go in the complete opposite direction.  There's a lot of baseball between now and the deadline.  Shoring up the rotation or bullpen is a good idea at any point, it's just a matter of the cost.  

[drjim]

 

That may very well be true, hard to say.

 

But the Twins should be out asking, IMO.

 

Sure, but it really won't start until mid-June. And the Twins really lack the assets to pay much of a premium to get a team to budge earlier, unless they part with a player currently on the roster (and creating another hole).

 

They may be able to take a crack at a marginal guy or borderline DFA type and try and turn them around - but in that case I'd roll with Gibson for the immediate future.

 

I do think they will have a chance at an OK rental or possibly a guy where they can take on money, but that is still a month away at least. Will be much easier to get a bullpen arm.

[Loosey]

I'm wishy washy on trading prospects.  On one hand I am all in on the rebuild and the future of the team.  The offense is looking like it could be pretty good in the next few years, while the pitching is suspect.  To give up young pitching for a guy this year seems to defeat the purpose of a rebuild.  On the other hand the Twins will likely select a college arm in with the first pick of draft.  doing that adds more arms to the system.  If it's Wright or McKay we may see them in the next year and will likely surpass some current top 25 -level prospects in the system quickly.  So Felix Jorge and Kohl Stewart and Lachlan Wells types would be expendable, but how much do guys like that bring back in a return.

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Well, tonight ought to reignite the should have traded Dozier debate. Guess who starts against the Red Wings for the Durham Bulls.