Trade or stand pat

[dgwills]

 

The only one potentially fits that is Burdi. But there is enough risk that I would absolutely move him in a package for a controlled starter.

I hear you. The most likely scenario is that none of those guys meets that expectation. That's baseball. What other plan do we have though?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Trading for a Richard type right now would be bad value.

yup, like others I'd like the Twins to target a higher cost, longer term asset than a back of the rotation rental. Starters in the system over the next couple seasons are rather thin and there's only 4 right now. Standing pat is a bad strategy

[drjim]

I hear you. The most likely scenario is that none of those guys meets that expectation. That's baseball. What other plan do we have though?

Keep adding assets, develop the best they can, and hope it pops at some point.

 

But I wouldn't necessarily sit and wait. A lot obviously depends on the next 6 or so weeks.

[dgwills]

 

Keep adding assets, develop the best they can, and hope it pops at some point.

But I wouldn't necessarily sit and wait. A lot obviously depends on the next 6 or so weeks.

We got Alberto Mejia for Nunez. What kind of pitcher are we getting for any of the players we have discussed? I would hardly call that adding assets.

[drivlikejehu]

A lot of comments on here are basically people with a $15,000 car budget shopping new luxury cars. You can assert the merits of an S-Class all day long, but the dealer isn't going to give the car away for nothing.

 

Good, young, cost-controlled pitching is way beyond the ability of the Twins to acquire via trade. It's just a fantasy . . . then the same posters will criticize the Twins for not following through on their fantasy trade ideas.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Wait until they have actually played against some good teams. The Twins have yet to face the 3 best teams in the AL.

 

But we ARE one of those teams!  

 

3. Minnesota Twins (24-18)

4. Baltimore Orioles (25-19)

[Otto von Ballpark]

But we ARE one of those teams!

 

3. Minnesota Twins (24-18)

4. Baltimore Orioles (25-19)

And we have yet to face... OURSELVES!

[DaveW]

And we have yet to face... OURSELVES!

I'd bet on ourselves in that series.

[Linus]

I would make a Dozier for pitching trade in a minute. I would even throw in a prospect not named Gordon to get best value. No way do I trade Erv or Santiago right now. Let's accumulate as much pitching as we can and see what happens.

 

If they completely fall apart somehow then I would trade Santiago but I'm hanging on to Erv.

[gocgo]

While it's fun to mull over what the Twins should/could do.  Put yourself in Detroit's shoes for a minute.  They have some aging pieces that they need to replace.  Farm teams that could sure use an injection of talent.  They are kind of floundering around in a winnable division.  What to do, what to do?

[Vanimal46]

 

While it's fun to mull over what the Twins should/could do.  Put yourself in Detroit's shoes for a minute.  They have some aging pieces that they need to replace.  Farm teams that could sure use an injection of talent.  They are kind of floundering around in a winnable division.  What to do, what to do?

 

All the more reason to be buyers instead of sellers IMO... Detroit may take a step back and finally start rebuilding now that their win-now owner passed away. 

[Tomj14]

 

Santana, probably. Dozier, maybe not.

 

Polanco is holding his own and Gordon is absolutely destroying Chattanooga. The middle infield situation looks pretty good right now and if Dozier heats up, I'd definitely put him on the market. Maybe you don't get a good enough offer and that's okay but if you have positional excess, trading some of it away is usually a good idea.

So if Dozier heats up you put him on the market even if we are winning and he is part of the reason?

I could go along with if our pitching falls apart and we are losing and he heats up we trade him for sure. But if we are in first or close to first and he heats up I ride him.

 

I also don't believe we have a positional excess at this point.

[Tomj14]

The real issue I see with trading is there are only a couple of teams that I think would be willing to deal the type of pitcher we are looking for (late 20's early 30's), Phillies, marlins, and padres. And they don't really have anybody that I would be interested in giving up any of our prospects for.

 

[Jham]

We have to be in win now territory.  We have Erv pitching like an ace for how long?  We've got a healthy Berrios breaking out.  We have Buxton in his defensive prime, Sano in his prime, Dozier in his prime, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario putting together nice seasons and figuring things out.  Sano will likely cool a little, but Dozier will carry this team at some point.  Mauer's quietly getting his bat speed back.  We've got a little bit of offensive depth.  I think we've got enough depth in the rotation to hold things together in case of injury.  We've got roster flexibility with an expendable Rule 5 spot.  

 

A LOT depends on Berrios and Mejia.  If Berrios is a difference maker and Mejia is inconsistent but flashy, then Gibson can be a 5 and Santiago doesn't have to be a 2.  Then we have Wilk, Duffey, as well as some lesser depth in AAA.  

I would want to see what Burdi can do, how Shaggy and Jay come back before trading for help in the pen.  Kintzler has been nasty.  Over-use is my biggest concern with this pen.  

 

First trade I'd make would be for Haley.  I value that roster spot over a "hey, free player!" at the end of the year at this point.

 

As I've said many times, this is the group we've been waiting for.  We have to support them and look to win every year this core is contributing.  And if you don't think this core is good enough, then the core isn't really a core and our most tradeable asset, the one that could bring about a franchise changing return, is Sano.  But I'd rather see them try to win with this core before deciding they are or aren't good enough.  To me, they're showing they are.  Sano doesn't care when Gonsalves will be ready to contribute.  I don't want to waste a year of the core we have now waiting for middling prospects.  The good ones need to be up yet this year, ideally Granite and Burdi (sooner than later).  The rest are expendable.  As is Escobar, Vargas, Rosario, and Grossman, in my mind.  

Kepler is probably the piece that could fetch the biggest return without killing this team...  Do we think he'll hit lefties?  He'd have to be the cornerstone of a trade for an ace.  Sucks, but I think Granite and Grossman could be a functional platoon...

[spanman2]

 

I do not believe this is the time to go all in for some sort of rental. If a trade is made at the deadline, I think it should be for a player the Twins plan on keeping for a couple of years. (by player, I mean pitcher)

Agree 100%.  I would also say let's see where they are at on the 4th of July. You are roughly half way through the season.   If they are in it at that time then I consider pulling the plug on a trade as you mentioned.  Please do not mortgage the future on such trade.  I can't imagine the new front office would do so.  What a fantastic fun start to the season!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So if Dozier heats up you put him on the market even if we are winning and he is part of the reason?

I could go along with if our pitching falls apart and we are losing and he heats up we trade him for sure. But if we are in first or close to first and he heats up I ride him.

 

I also don't believe we have a positional excess at this point.

I'd consider it if the deal is right and it brings back pitching.

 

Given this rotation, it's not terribly difficult to see a net gain by swapping Dozier for a starter.

[Vanimal46]

 

Kepler is probably the piece that could fetch the biggest return without killing this team...  Do we think he'll hit lefties?  He'd have to be the cornerstone of a trade for an ace.  Sucks, but I think Granite and Grossman could be a functional platoon...

 

I agree with this. Losing Kepler would hurt, but he'd be the best trade piece to acquire high end pitching without creating a black hole in the lineup and the field. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Kepler and Sano are my two untouchables in the lineup.

 

Kepler has been drastically underrated by analysts. He's damned near a perfect hitter now that he's roping the ball.

 

And that was kind of expected, as he's still only 24 and gaining strength. The signs were always there that he'd be a productive MLB player, he simply didn't put it together until 2015 or so.

[Vanimal46]

 

Kepler and Sano are my two untouchables in the lineup.

 

Kepler has been drastically underrated by analysts. He's damned near a perfect hitter now that he's roping the ball.

 

And that was kind of expected, as he's still only 24 and gaining strength. The signs were always there that he'd be a productive MLB player, he simply didn't put it together until 2015 or so.

 

Kepler is easy to like that's for sure. But you still wouldn't consider it if he would help acquire someone like Gerritt Cole? 

 

Like jham said, Grossman/Granite could be a functional platoon... 

If they traded Polanco for example, that would create a black hole at SS that's not easy to replace. Rosario being the feature piece in a trade wouldn't bring back high end talent. Dozier has been discussed from every angle last off-season.

 

I'm not sure who else they could dangle to get the help they need at the top of the rotation. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Kepler is easy to like that's for sure. But you still wouldn't consider it if he would help acquire someone like Gerritt Cole? 

 

Like jham said, Grossman/Granite could be a functional platoon... 

If they traded Polanco for example, that would create a black hole at SS that's not easy to replace. Rosario being the feature piece in a trade wouldn't bring back high end talent. Dozier has been discussed from every angle last off-season.

 

I'm not sure who else they could dangle to get the help they need at the top of the rotation. 

I just really dislike the idea of trading what has become a rather established position player for pitching. It's such a risky game to play.

 

Prospects for pitching? Sure. Prospects fail at a pretty high rate and fail to meet their ceiling at an even higher rate.

 

But established position players are like money in the bank. Sure, they have a chance of injury but it's a small risk compared to pitching.

[Vanimal46]

 

I just really dislike the idea of trading what has become a rather established position player for pitching. It's such a risky game to play.

 

Prospects for pitching? Sure. Prospects fail at a pretty high rate and fail to meet their ceiling at an even higher rate.

 

But established position players are like money in the bank. Sure, they have a chance of injury but it's a small risk compared to pitching.

 

Understandable... I'm having tunnel vision right now trying to figure out ways to acquire pitching since the offense is ready to compete, Sano's putting up MVP numbers, and the position players are healthy. 

[USAFChief]

I'd be really, really reluctant to trade Kepler.  He looks to me to be on a trajectory to become the kind of guy who has a 15 yr career as a borderline AS every year.  

[drjim]

 

I'd be really, really reluctant to trade Kepler.  He looks to me to be on a trajectory to become the kind of guy who has a 15 yr career as a borderline AS every year.  

 

Agree. And someone like Gerrit Cole is certainly good, but already down to 2 years of control left after this season, and he has been trending (slightly) down as he starts to get more expensive.

 

I can't support trading Kepler.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd be really, really reluctant to trade Kepler.  He looks to me to be on a trajectory to become the kind of guy who has a 15 yr career as a borderline AS every year.  

 

He looks like Johnny Damon minus the wheels.  I'd be happy if he have Damon's career.

[Jham]

I'd be really, really reluctant to trade Kepler. He looks to me to be on a trajectory to become the kind of guy who has a 15 yr career as a borderline AS every year.

As well you should be! They don't just give ace away. If we didn't get ideal return, keep him. As of now he's platooning.

[yarnivek1972]

As well you should be! They don't just give ace away. If we didn't get ideal return, keep him. As of now he's platooning.

Platooning him at his age is probably a mistake. But that's an entirely different argument.

[drjim]

 

Platooning him at his age is probably a mistake. But that's an entirely different argument.

 

And also an exaggeration.

[Tomj14]

They way I see it, we don't have the minor leaguers to get a top "end" of the rotation starter without cleaning out most of our top prospects and Dozier isn't going to get that return either.

So we either look to at Buxton or Kepler to get that return. (I wouldn't trade Buxton and Kepler would have to return somebody that has at least a few years of control left)

or we look to trade a little lower prospects for a little older starting pitcher that front office thinks can turn it around (something like Y. Gallardo)

or we stand pat and pay a larger price towards the deadline if we are still in in.

Minor league relievers aren't going to get us anything in return and that seems to be what we have the most of.

 

[yarnivek1972]

And also an exaggeration.

What do you mean by that exactly?

 

Yes, I know Kepler hasn't ALWAYS sat vs LHP. But if I'm reading the numbers correctly, Kepler has not started 7 games this year. I'm going to guess they were all started by LHP, because I don't feel like looking it up.

 

7 non starts in 42 games kinda seems like a lot to me. Maybe it isn't. It projects to 130-135 starts. I guess I'd like to see more than that. I get that there is some juggling going on to get everyone playing time. But if you think he's one of your key guys, don't you need to make sure his PA are enough to develop properly?

 

Maybe I'm a little old school, but I don't think a guy his age needs to have one game every week off. More like every other week IMO.

 

There needs to be balance between development and putting the team in the best position to win. I get that too. I feel with a guy like Kepler who is SO important to the future of the team, you risk an 0 fer vs a LHP even if it costs you a game here and there to continue that development.

 

I think we all agree that the only way Kepler improves vs LHP is to face them. Not saying you never sit him vs LHP. Just not quite as often as he has IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thus far in the season, 25% of Kepler's plate appearances have come against LHP.

 

He's getting his reps against lefties but not to the detriment of the team.