Morris on Mauer

[Twodogs]

If I had to guess, I'd say Mauer isn't seeing the ball as good as he normally does, I think that might be why all of the weird bunt attempts.  The next thing that I just personally feel is that with all of the pitches that Mauer takes that he would be an ideal leadoff hitter, most of the good ones take a crap load of pitches.  Last I think Mauer may, with his approach, his skill set did much better when there were proven players in and around his spot in the order.  So if you have a Morneau in his prime, Cuddyer in his prime, Kubel with his 20 Hr power and Hunter in his prime; pitchers often probably just gave in to Mauer thinking that he might do less damage than Morneau et al.  Right now the Twins lineup is still in its proving ground.  Pitchers are not giving into Mauer because they are having success striking out Buxton, Rosario, etc.... These are just my observations and could be way off.  But if Sano starts to crush the ball on a regular basis, and Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco etc.... all start to put real good runs together I think Mauer might end up doing significantly better also.

[flags]

as a rule, if Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris agree on something, i automatically believe the opposite

[mikelink45]

 

To give a short and sweet answer: sabermetrics is also about scoring runs, they simply analyze in the aggregate to counter "old housewives' tales".

 

No one is trying to say that sac flies don't matter. As sabermetrics advance, they don't counteract every "old school" baseball theory, in fact they reaffirm some of them such as pitch framing.

 

But there are many old, bad ideas in baseball. And sabr tries to move past some of those bad ideas. One of those bad ideas was that walks are both the fault of the pitcher and are relatively worthless from an offensive standpoint.

I understand what you are saying, but nuances eventually come out as we discover in all things that statistics are only the facts that we put together to make truth and the truth varies from one telling to the next as we add layers to the information we have and fill in the blanks in the current truth.  Not all walks are of equal value, not all hits are of equal value.  Is hitting behind the runner more valuable than hitting in front of the runner?  That is implied to be better, but would there be a hit instead of an out when you hit in front?  I do not have the answers, but I am suspect when there is one blanket answer for any given line item - like walks.  

[Linus]

as a rule, if Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris agree on something, i automatically believe the opposite

This. The notion that Bert and Jack support an idea doesn't lend it any credibility for me. There are several posters here who I would listen to first.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

walks ARE the fault of the pitcher.

 

And I've been around a long time and never heard anyone say walks are worthless.

walks are the fault of the pitcher.

 

Walks are not only the fault of the pitcher.

 

If pitch framing is attributed to the catcher and OBP is attributed to the hitter, then Walks are a function of the pitcher, catcher, hitter and Ump. The pitcher can hit their spots but if Kurt Suzuki is framing marginal pitches as balls rather than strikes, is that the pitcher's fault? I thought the point was to avoid throwing the ball down the heart of the strike zone....

[DrNeau]

Comments from last night's game in Mauer's first plate appearance: 

 

Dick Bremer: 

"Joe hitting .214, and in my opinion, he has been victimized more than any other player I know with the advanced scouting reports that teams have. When he was hitting championships and perennially hitting over .300, he got a lot of hits to where there are now fielders. He's hit some line drives..."

 

Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven

[Laughs. Interrupts]

"Well now Dick, he needs to make an adjustment, and he will not do that, so...

yeah, I mean, of course, you see in Kansas City, and every ball club - there was so much room down that right field line, but Joe will not attempt to pull the ball. Look at the outfield. Look at Garcia. Look where they're playing. They've got one down the left field line, one in left center, and one in right center. You can say that Joe is being cheated, but Joe is not making an adjustment like a pitcher needs to make an adjustment or anybody needs to make an adjustment."

 

-

 

Mauer has not hit ONE fly ball to RF in the air all year. This includes line drives (0), flares/bloops (0), or any type of batted balls in the air (0). He is now hitting .188 with 0 HR and 0 2B.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Comments from last night's game in Mauer's first plate appearance:

 

Dick Bremer:

"Joe hitting .214, and in my opinion, he has been victimized more than any other player I know with the advanced scouting reports that teams have. When he was hitting championships and perennially hitting over .300, he got a lot of hits to where there are now fielders. He's hit some line drives..."

 

Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven

[Laughs. Interrupts]

"Well now Dick, he needs to make an adjustment, and he will not do that, so...

yeah, I mean, of course, you see in Kansas City, and every ball club - there was so much room down that right field line, but Joe will not attempt to pull the ball. Look at the outfield. Look at Garcia. Look where they're playing. They've got one down the left field line, one in left center, and one in right center. You can say that Joe is being cheated, but Joe is not making an adjustment like a pitcher needs to make an adjustment or anybody needs to make an adjustment."

 

-

 

Mauer has not hit ONE fly ball to RF in the air all year. This includes line drives (0), flares/bloops (0), or any type of batted balls in the air (0). He is now hitting .188 with 0 HR and 0 2B.

i agree with the sentiment that he needs to adjust his approach. I struggle with the idea that he has less value. I think of it more that if he adjusted he could provide more value for a while, but then the book on him would be updated. He's neither the victim nor the villain.

[djvang]

Baseball is a game of adjustments. The defenses adjusted to where Mauer hits the ball. Now Mauer needs to adjust. But he won't. And it seems that no one on the team will suggest it.

[Willihammer]

 

 

 

Bert Blyleven has made similar comments tonight. 

Thank you for posting this. I think this is a very typical at-bat in terms of how Joe is being attacked by opponents. Let's think about this logically. The outfield defense is shifted to the opposite field, aggressively. The assertion being made by Bleleven and others is Joe needs to counter-adjust by hitting the ball in the air to the pull side, particularly early in the count. Well, what does Covey do? He attacks him away, away, away for the first 5 pitches. If Joe or any other batter attempts to pull those balls, 9/10 times they will roll over them for a ground ball to the pull side.

 

What is unique to Joe, and where I'm starting to come around a bit as a critic, is that with two strikes the pitcher comes inside. This would not happen  with Sano or Dozier or most other hitters. I believe the situational zone charts will back this up. Perhaps Joe could do a better job looking to pull the ball when he is behind in the count, rather than inside-outing the pitch as he does here.

[Parker Hageman]

I saw that last night and grabbed the clip...

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/853285939942174720

 

Here's what amuses me the most: it's something that has been pointed out consistently since 2014 (note how Bremer uses the word "victimize" way back when): 

 

As Twins broadcaster Dick Bremer told KFAN’s Paul Allen on Wednesday morning, the belief in the organization is that team’s have figured out a way to combat Mauer’s opposite field tendencies which is wreaking havoc on his offensive numbers.

 

“I think he more than any other Twins hitter has been victimized by the shifts,” Bremer told Allen. “When we talk about the shifts in the booth, we automatically show the infield and they are doing a lot of creative things in the infield but Joe’s really been victimized by the outfield shifts. And I think what we’ve seen -- and Ron Gardenhire confirmed it the other day -- Joe is trying now, and succeeding to some degree, pulling the ball more. Because he’s hit a lot of line drives to left field and he’s probably had eight doubles taken away from him with the left fielder basically playing in the left field corner.”

 

 

I think Mauer's decline has to do with brain injuries, aging as well as the stubborn refusal to modify his approach at the plate as teams begin to eliminate the spots where he gets hits. 

 

I pointed this out on Twitter but the middle of the field used to be a huge hit zone for him. Back in the Dome days, the turf helped him get plenty of hits up the middle. Then teams adjusted. From 2009 to 2013, he had a .312 batting average on grounders up the middle. From 2014 on, when teams began to place a shortstop basically over the second base bag against him, he has had a .246 average on those with a steady decline each year. 

 

[DrNeau]

In this particular at bat, the defensive shift, compounded by Joe's taking of multiple strikes (without swinging) with runners in scoring position, is a good example of what's going on with him. Hard to argue with a hall of famer. 

[Parker Hageman]

 

In this particular at bat, the defensive shift, compounded by Joe's taking of multiple strikes (without swinging) with runners in scoring position, is a good example of what's going on with him. Hard to argue with a hall of famer. 

 

Those two strikes were both on the outer half which makes me wonder if he's seeing the shift and trying to get a pitch middle-in rather than hit into the shift. 

 

That's the psychology behind shifting as well. Overload on a hitter's strength and make them take their less than best swing in the open real estate. As we saw in 2015, that was tough for Mauer to do. He's shown he's unable to pull the ball in the air. 

 

I can't remember if was that at-bat or later in the game but he smashed a ball to the left-center gap where the center field didn't have to move for the ball. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm usually not a huge fan of the "intangibles" factor, but I think one of the best thing Joe is doing this year is "showing" Sano the value of patience, pitch selection and taking what the pitchers give you (aka not pulling everything)

I don't think it's a coincidence that Sanos k rate is dropping and is hitting more balls (and a couple Hr) up the middle.

Sano walked twice yesterday, 3 times on Thursday.  Amazing!

[HitInAPinch]

 

The comments on Star Tribune were so dumb I almost signed up for an account. Almost.

I enjoy reading the comments on the Strib.  Makes me feel superior somehow.....

[DrNeau]

Quite interesting commentary from Bremer in Mauer's 3rd AB today: 

 

He points out the location of the fielders, and estimated 150 feet of uncovered ground in right field. Runners on 1st and 3rd, and Mauer took a perfect fastball for a strike, then later popped out to left on a curve. 

[TheLeviathan]

"Victim" is definitely not the right word.

[USAFChief]

Thank you for posting this. I think this is a very typical at-bat in terms of how Joe is being attacked by opponents. Let's think about this logically. The outfield defense is shifted to the opposite field, aggressively. The assertion being made by Bleleven and others is Joe needs to counter-adjust by hitting the ball in the air to the pull side, particularly early in the count. Well, what does Covey do? He attacks him away, away, away for the first 5 pitches. If Joe or any other batter attempts to pull those balls, 9/10 times they will roll over them for a ground ball to the pull side.

 

What is unique to Joe, and where I'm starting to come around a bit as a critic, is that with two strikes the pitcher comes inside. This would not happen  with Sano or Dozier or most other hitters. I believe the situational zone charts will back this up. Perhaps Joe could do a better job looking to pull the ball when he is behind in the count, rather than inside-outing the pitch as he does here.

I think it's difficult to look for a pitch to pull when you are behind in the count.

 

The time to get out in front of a pitch is early in the count, when you dont have to protect. Look for a pitch, and attack it. Don't let so many PAs go by that start 0-1, 1-2. Start drilling line drives to right, and then there will be some real estate available for those two strike flares to left.

[Halsey Hall]

What bothers me is Joe just doesn't seem to care. If he hits a line drive in what should be a gap but now is right at the fielder, he looks like he's satisfied to have hit the ball hard. Geez Joe, it's just a loud out. Hit a flair into right and it's a line drive in the scorebook.

[djvang]

Reusse made a comment today that if Bert and Jack are criticizing Joe, they must have permission from the Twins to do it. Maybe they're using a back channel to get the message across.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Reusse made a comment today that if Bert and Jack are criticizing Joe, they must have permission from the Twins to do it. Maybe they're using a back channel to get the message across.

Not only does that go entirely against everything we know about Falvey, that's just about the worst plan ever to get someone to change how they operate.

 

Oh, wait. You said Reusse. Yeah, that makes sense.

[Taildragger8791]

The thing that really bakes my noodle is I now wonder if Mauer's greatness would have been diminished this much if he was seeing defenses/pitchers attack him 5-10 years ago the way they do now. He's never been a pull hitter, and when he tried to pull the ball a year or two ago he instead just became a double-play groundball machine. So did he just exploit the inefficiencies of the old-school game planning strategy all those years? Pulling the ball has never been his game, he does it by happenstance rather than intent. Would that be different if he'd been forced to adjust when he was 23?

[killertwinfan]

 

Not only does that go entirely against everything we know about Falvey, that's just about the worst plan ever to get someone to change how they operate.

Oh, wait. You said Reusse. Yeah, that makes sense.

Add to it that it seemed to be more of a disagreement between Bert and Dick.  I thought Dick was making a  supportive comment for Mauer's recent struggles and Bert was frustrated with Mauer's inability to adjust. I don't expect much improvement from Joe.  He may be a .250 hitter with no power.  I would trade that for a .225 hitter with power.  I expect to see either, Vargas or Park taking a bunch of his AB's in the second half.  My diagnosis is bilateral leg weakness. Just a guess.  

[djvang]

Dick rarely says anything remotely critical of a Twin so I was surprised by even the mild comment. Gladden's usually the only one who makes a biting comment once in awhile.

[D.C Twins]

If Park or Vargas get hot in AAA and Mauer continues to struggle.... things could get VERY uncomfortable in Twins Territory

[howeda7]

At some point, don't you make up some an injury/declare concussion symptoms back and just let him ride out the rest of this contract on the DL? Perkins is also a native with an awful contract, but at least we don't have to watch them drag him out there and make him try to pitch the 9th inning every other day because his contract says so. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

We're hitting the real issue now. Mauer's problem isn't so much one of approach, it's one of remaining ability. He no longer has a quick enough bat to pull the ball or to hit with power. 

 

Mauer was never much of a pull hitter.  His age is an issue, but it's exacerbating a long-standing issue of rigidity in his approach.  So, IMO, it's both.  

 

Had Mauer made more adjustments along the way the last 3-5 years, teams wouldn't be overplaying him as much as they are now.  But Mauer has always been more content with his approach than his results.

 

And that is the true root of the problem.

[The_Phantom]

 

Those two strikes were both on the outer half which makes me wonder if he's seeing the shift and trying to get a pitch middle-in rather than hit into the shift. 

 

That's the psychology behind shifting as well. Overload on a hitter's strength and make them take their less than best swing in the open real estate. As we saw in 2015, that was tough for Mauer to do. He's shown he's unable to pull the ball in the air. 

 

I can't remember if was that at-bat or later in the game but he smashed a ball to the left-center gap where the center field didn't have to move for the ball. 

 

Even when the ball is on the inner half of the plate he "inside outs" it to opposite field. Even with the shift on. It's like he cant figured out how to pull it. 

[DrNeau]

 

If Park or Vargas get hot in AAA and Mauer continues to struggle.... things could get VERY uncomfortable in Twins Territory

 

I agree with your statement, fully, but why does it need to be so uncomfortable? Like just how uncomfortable Bremer sounded when Bret made the comments on the air. Quickly changing his tone, nervously laughing and suddenly agreeing with Bert's point, but arguing about the verbiage between 'victimized' and 'cheated'. It's all too much. Once this organization stops apologizing for futility, we will be able to move on. 

 

When I say this, I do not necessarily mean that we will move on without Mauer, nor is that what I wish to happen. I just think a few things need to be addressed with him, and I actually hope he can be salvaged. I would love to see him start hammering some pitches to RF, which would keep the defenses more honest. If he started hitting the ball to right, he could have one of the biggest turnarounds in history. While I am a Mauer fan, I am more of a Twins fan, and would rather see the team win than continue to act like nothing is happening in order to save Mauer's face. He is hitting .190 with 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR. Usually when a player is struggling, you hear some report about how they are working hard in the cage, trying out some new things, etc. Not so much with Mauer.

 

Can anyone in this organization get him going? With Morneau, it took a (missed) punch from Torii Hunter - in order to get him focused and dedicated. Maybe Mauer needs someone to wake him up? Hit him? Intervention? I don't know, but he needs something... now. 

[Aaron Cross]

I don't care about the first pitch as much as he is taking consecutive fastball strikes with runners in scoring position. 3-2 game today on the road,  5th inning, 1 out, guy on first base, and... Joe (our 3-hole hitter) is thinking bunt. Wow. 

 

2 outfielders shaded far left, and one in right center field, and he hits the ball to left. Runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs and he is hitting the ball to left. What? Even a flare or fly ball to right can be problematic for the defense and he's hitting to left field. Guy takes a fat fastball then swings at off-speed. He needs to regroup; this cannot continue.

 

Solid post.

[djvang]

 

I agree with your statement, fully, but why does it need to be so uncomfortable? Like just how uncomfortable Bremer sounded when Bret made the comments on the air. Quickly changing his tone, nervously laughing and suddenly agreeing with Bert's point, but arguing about the verbiage between 'victimized' and 'cheated'. It's all too much. Once this organization stops apologizing for futility, we will be able to move on. 

 

When I say this, I do not necessarily mean that we will move on without Mauer, nor is that what I wish to happen. I just think a few things need to be addressed with him, and I actually hope he can be salvaged. I would love to see him start hammering some pitches to RF, which would keep the defenses more honest. If he started hitting the ball to right, he could have one of the biggest turnarounds in history. While I am a Mauer fan, I am more of a Twins fan, and would rather see the team win than continue to act like nothing is happening in order to save Mauer's face. He is hitting .190 with 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR. Usually when a player is struggling, you hear some report about how they are working hard in the cage, trying out some new things, etc. Not so much with Mauer.

 

Can anyone in this organization get him going? With Morneau, it took a (missed) punch from Torii Hunter - in order to get him focused and dedicated. Maybe Mauer needs someone to wake him up? Hit him? Intervention? I don't know, but he needs something... now. 

Mauer has always been coddled by the Twins. Home town boy. MVP. Batting champ. He's still the face of the team to the casual fan. I'll bet half the jerseys in the stands are #7. But he's a shadow of his prime. And they don't seem to want to address his declining skills. Sitting him out to "rest" him is a face-saving measure for both Mauer and the team. Knowing how great he was makes it hard to watch him now. Especially when he doesn't even try to make adjustments.