Morris on Mauer

[LeatherAntenna]

It we dig a little deeper and go beyond OBP and AVG you will find that his ISO with RISP from 14-17 is 268th in the league at .119:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=59&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2014-3-21&endDate=2017-4-14&filter=&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=11,1&pg=8

 

The trend line is not getting better on this either.  Looking at just 16-17 numbers his ISO with RISP got worse and ranked 296th at .080:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=59&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2016-3-21&endDate=2017-4-14&filter=&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=11,1&pg=9

 

Joe is going to walk 1/4 of the time with RISP.  He is going to hit for a high average but he isn't going to hit for power and get RBI in bunches.  That has value but it also warrants criticism, especially because that lack of power comes from a man who stands 6'5.

. 6'5" and 230lb. Worked in his contract year.

[LeatherAntenna]

I agree with your statement, fully, but why does it need to be so uncomfortable? Like just how uncomfortable Bremer sounded when Bret made the comments on the air. Quickly changing his tone, nervously laughing and suddenly agreeing with Bert's point, but arguing about the verbiage between 'victimized' and 'cheated'. It's all too much. Once this organization stops apologizing for futility, we will be able to move on. 

 

When I say this, I do not necessarily mean that we will move on without Mauer, nor is that what I wish to happen. I just think a few things need to be addressed with him, and I actually hope he can be salvaged. I would love to see him start hammering some pitches to RF, which would keep the defenses more honest. If he started hitting the ball to right, he could have one of the biggest turnarounds in history. While I am a Mauer fan, I am more of a Twins fan, and would rather see the team win than continue to act like nothing is happening in order to save Mauer's face. He is hitting .190 with 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR. Usually when a player is struggling, you hear some report about how they are working hard in the cage, trying out some new things, etc. Not so much with Mauer.

 

Can anyone in this organization get him going? With Morneau, it took a (missed) punch from Torii Hunter - in order to get him focused and dedicated. Maybe Mauer needs someone to wake him up? Hit him? Intervention? I don't know, but he needs something... now.

 

. With Morneau it wasn't Tori but the June 2006 intervention in Seattle that woke up his career.

[LeatherAntenna]

And Mauer does have two hits tonight and is a .222 slugging dynamo so far this year in the four hole.

[USAFChief]

Perhaps we need to change the Mauer-Bumgarner HR thread to XBHs.  

 

Make it fairer for Joltin' Joe.

[Dr. Evil]

I think our best lineup is Sano at first base and Escobar at 3rd.

[DrNeau]

Perhaps we need to change the Mauer-Bumgarner HR thread to XBHs.

 

Make it fairer for Joltin' Joe.

That thread was locked.

[Mike Sixel]

MadBum has a higher wRC+ in three of the last 4 years than Mauer (counting this year).....

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't understand how this post doesn't immediately end this debate.

 

Because a .150 Isolated Discipline in RBI situations is on the side of the curve that's in the red, not the black.

 

I would trade 25 points of batting average for 50 points of OBP all day every day in those situations. It scores more runs.

[drjim]

I appreciation the frustration with Mauer, but aren't these complaints reaching the point of futility? Not because he won't adjust, but because he's too cooked for it to make a difference.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I appreciation the frustration with Mauer, but aren't these complaints reaching the point of futility? Not because he won't adjust, but because he's too cooked for it to make a difference.

 

I'm not sure most of our conversations "make a difference". That said, yes, I think this one is futile. He is what he is, and appears unwilling to adjust like others as they age.

[PopRiveter]

Throughout this thread, folks keep repeating that Mauer has refused to adjust his approach.

 

Am I the only person who remembers 2015?

The shifts got strong (and effective) in 2014. In 2015, he committed to changing his swing and approach to try and pull the ball. He swung earlier in counts. Took harder swings. It was the storyline of article after article. 

 

It didn't work. It resulted in the lowest OPS and the highest strikeout total of his career. The only time he ever posted a below-average OPS+.

 

I think he's convinced himself that he needs to work within his established skillset. 

 

I think it's unfair to say that he's refused to adjust (because I watched baseball in 2015) but I think it is 100% fair to say he is refusing now.

 

I'd like to see him find a way to pull a ball when he needs to, because it seems undeniable that there are situations where he needs to. 

[Mike Sixel]

That's why I keep typing "appears"....

[drjim]

 

I'm not sure most of our conversations "make a difference". That said, yes, I think this one is futile. He is what he is, and appears unwilling to adjust like others as they age.

 

I don't think it's even about unwillingness to adjust at this point. There is nothing to adjust to. He's cooked.

 

It's a futile conversation because there's nothing there anymore.

[70charger]

 

I don't think it's even about unwillingness to adjust at this point. There is nothing to adjust to. He's cooked.

 

It's a futile conversation because there's nothing there anymore.

 

I think this is being overlooked, especially by the usual suspects. He isn't a bad person. He's not stubborn. He's not trying to make the team lose. He doesn't not care. 

 

He just can't anymore. 

[djvang]

 

I think this is being overlooked, especially by the usual suspects. He isn't a bad person. He's not stubborn. He's not trying to make the team lose. He doesn't not care. 

 

He just can't anymore. 

Then why is he on the roster? Yes, I know, he was a great player, he's a nice guy, lots of #7 jerseys to sell and $46M left to pay. They're stuck with him.

[drjim]

 

Then why is he on the roster? Yes, I know, he was a great player, he's a nice guy, lots of #7 jerseys to sell and $46M left to pay. They're stuck with him.

 

He might not make it the whole year.

[USAFChief]

 

I don't think it's even about unwillingness to adjust at this point. There is nothing to adjust to. He's cooked.

 

It's a futile conversation because there's nothing there anymore.

 Whether the results would improve is surely debatable.

 

But I don't think there's any question he could change his approach some, if he was willing.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Because a .150 Isolated Discipline in RBI situations is on the side of the curve that's in the red, not the black.

 

I would trade 25 points of batting average for 50 points of OBP all day every day in those situations. It scores more runs.

It might score more runs in THAT at-bat, but does it create more runs over the course of the inning?

[70charger]

 

Then why is he on the roster? Yes, I know, he was a great player, he's a nice guy, lots of #7 jerseys to sell and $46M left to pay. They're stuck with him.

 

Because he's not actually bad? Which is pretty obvious?

 

Bad question. He's on the roster because he is one of the best 25 players. He's a bit above league average with the bat (106 OPS+ last year) and an excellent fielder at 1B. He's below average for a first baseman, sure, but so what? Who's your replacement? Park? He was absolutely below replacement level last year. Cutting him is a bit ridiculous. Sure the money plays a part, but Mauer isn't actively losing games like some other players on the team.

 

The fact that he can't change what he is doesn't make him a below-replacement player, which he very obviously isn't. I tend to think the hate comes from the amount of money paid to him - which simply evinces a pure ignorance of baseball economics on the part of the hater - and the comparison to what he used to be - which simply isn't fair.

[DrNeau]

In the span of 2017, Joe has taken far too many strikes, then wound up swinging at a ball. There have been multiple situations where we have had runners in scoring position and he took consecutive strikes, only to later swing at a ball. It would not kill him to take a good hack at some of the early-count fastball strikes he is taking. Hit a few lasers to RF and it might spread that shift out a bit. He has got to keep the defense honest, and he is not doing that. Still is hitting the ball to LF with an exaggerated LF shift. Would like to see him go up there with the intent to swing hard. He instead is taking until he gets a strike (many times two), then is trying to slap to left. He is automatically taking all power potential out of the equation with that approach.

[70charger]

 

In the span of 2017, Joe has taken far too many strikes, then wound up swinging at a ball. There have been multiple situations where we have had runners in scoring position and he took consecutive strikes, only to later swing at a ball. It would not kill him to take a good hack at some of the early-count fastball strikes he is taking. Hit a few lasers to RF and it might spread that shift out a bit. He has got to keep the defense honest, and he is not doing that. Still is hitting the ball to LF with an exaggerated LF shift. Would like to see him go up there with the intent to swing hard. He instead is taking until he gets a strike (many times two), then is trying to slap to left. He is automatically taking all power potential out of the equation with that approach.

 

Is there any other player that you're remotely interested in?

[USAFChief]

 

Because he's not actually bad? Which is pretty obvious?

 

Bad question. He's on the roster because he is one of the best 25 players. He's a bit above league average with the bat (106 OPS+ last year) and an excellent fielder at 1B. He's below average for a first baseman, sure, but so what? Who's your replacement? Park? He was absolutely below replacement level last year. Cutting him is a bit ridiculous. Sure the money plays a part, but Mauer isn't actively losing games like some other players on the team.

 

The fact that he can't change what he is doesn't make him a below-replacement player, which he very obviously isn't. I tend to think the hate comes from the amount of money paid to him - which simply evinces a pure ignorance of baseball economics on the part of the hater - and the comparison to what he used to be - which simply isn't fair.

He got extra credit for being a catcher.  Why wouldn't he get extra demerits for being a first baseman?

 

And forgive me for not being impressed that he's not a below-replacement player.  THAT's the defense? 

 

While I'm at it, if you're going to credit him for a 106 OPS+ last year, I think it's fair for the rest of us to point out his 98 OPS+ the year before, as well as not having a SLG over .400 since 2013.

[a-wan]

Anyone want to point out the legitimate criticisms of Mauer to Moliter so he stops placing him higher in the lineup taking at bats away from more productive players?

[70charger]

 

He got extra credit for being a catcher.  Why wouldn't he get extra demerits for being a first baseman?

 

And forgive me for not being impressed that he's not a below-replacement player.  THAT's the defense? 

 

While I'm at it, if you're going to credit him for a 106 OPS+ last year, I think it's fair for the rest of us to point out his 98 OPS+ the year before, as well as not having a SLG over .400 since 2013.

 

That's all fine. Demerit away for a first baseman. And yes, he's a 2.2 WAR player. Not below replacement. If you haven't figured out that that's what he is by now, then whatever. But to think that that is worth literally cutting him and eating his salary? And replacing him with a question mark?

 

Come on. Who's being serious now?

[70charger]

And by the way, that 2.2 WAR includes the demerits for being a first baseman.

[a-wan]

 

And by the way, that 2.2 WAR includes the demerits for being a first baseman.

 

 

 

Ohh, ohh, let me guess Chief's reply!

 

[DrNeau]

Is there any other player that you're remotely interested in?

I'm interested in: Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Dozier and Palka.

 

I'm frustrated with Mauer, Hughes, Rosario and Buxton. Rosario and Buxton are frustrating me nearly as much as Mauer. I think Buxton and Rosario both need to be sent down but it's going to cause problems defensively. I had high hopes for both of them a few weeks ago, but they look clueless at the plate. Mauer is a former MVP and to see him go up there and take pitches with a fresh count as if he's ahead 3-0 drives me crazy... especially with runners in scoring position. I know he's still capable of greatness.

[70charger]

Even if you don't like WAR (and I get it), he's clearly one of the best 25 players on the roster, right?

 

If you do like WAR, BR has him at #4 on the team last year, and FG has him at #6. (Correct me if I did my research wrong.) Park was the definition of a replacement player last year. For all the talk about playing the best 25, how does it make sense to seriously talk about cutting Mauer and replacing him with a total unknown who is just as old?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Whether the results would improve is surely debatable.

 

But I don't think there's any question he could change his approach some, if he was willing.

how many cookies down the heart of the plate do you watch before you adjust? I mean Joe has seen a million of them, maybe 2 million, and hasn't said "you know, I'll bet if I swing at those a little bit more often, I might get more hits, or at least work more favorable counts"

[nicksaviking]

how many cookies down the heart of the plate do you watch before you adjust? I mean Joe has seen a million of them, maybe 2 million, and hasn't said "you know, I'll bet if I swing at those a little bit more often, I might get more hits, or at least work more favorable counts"

I don't care about his selectivity at the plate. I care that he hasn't changed his swing since he came up as a young man. It was lauded as a perfect swing. Back in 2006. Before statitistics made a perfect swing obsolete due to the predictability of the resulting contact. He needs to swallow his pride and talk to Castro about the advantages of creating lift and pulling the ball. And starting his swing earlier.