Article: Report From The Fort: Pitching Focus

[John Bonnes]

It should never come as a surprise when Twins news focuses on pitching, but even by that standard we have a lot. Today included a surprise demotion, the return of the Twins ace, a twist in the fifth starter competition and some news on Glen Perkins. Dig in.A Surprise Demotion

The big news of the day was that right-handed reliever JT Chargois, who most people expected to make the 25-man roster prior to camp, was optioned to the minors. Mike Berardino has Twins’ manager Paul Molitor’s quotes on the move from before tonight’s game. I hate this move to the point where it is disheartening.

 

I’ll make some acknowledgments first. First, the Opening Day roster is not all that important. Second, Chargois didn’t have a great camp. Third, it’s clear they still believe in him and expect him back soon. Fourth, I’m sure that some of the aspects of his game can be worked on in the minors, and he might even have more of a chance to work on them there than he would in a low-leverage role in the majors. I also have only seen him pitch once since I arrived (and it didn’t go well). Finally, I’ll acknowledge that the bullpen is an all-hands-on-deck situation; there isn’t enough talent to hide non-contributors for very long.

 

But to change course on the reliever with the highest upside because of a middling spring training performance is either short-sighted or a flawed philosophy. The hamstrung bullpen is exactly why a team should place a player with Chargois’ upside in a low-leverage role.

 

Sooner or later (with this group, sooner) there is going to be an injury or a rough spot for Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Pressly or Matt Belisle. And when that happens, the team is going to want someone ready to plug into those high-leverage roles. That player isn’t going to be Alex Wimmer or Justin Haley, at least not long-term.

 

(I suppose it’s possible it could be Michael Tonkin, but we’ve been saying that for several years and right now it’s very possible he is outside looking in for a spot. Tonight he gave up a home run on his second pitch, which might not be a big deal if that wasn’t his biggest issue last year as a Twins reliever. He gave up 13 home runs in 71 innings, about 50% more than the average major league pitcher. It’s hard to trust a homer-prone reliever in the late innings of a game.)

 

I think the team’s motivations are correct. They are rewarding pitchers who do well with a roster spot. They are evaluating based on results. They are responding to those players who look more “ready” based on that criterion. But I also think that plugging low upside players into low leverage roles is a sound strategy in the short-term and suicidal in the long-term. We’ve been down this path for two years under Molitor, and we know that sometime in June it all starts falling apart.

 

Return of Santana

The Twins tied the Orioles 5-5 as Ervin Santana returned to the mound and gave up one run over four innings. This morning we studied his pitching styleand a lot of our analysis held water. Santana does primarily rely on his fastball. His secondary pitch was his slider, and he relied on it versus right-handers (because it breaks away from them). And he used his changeup versus left-handers (because it move slightly away from them), most noticeably to strike out left-handed hitting Hyun Soo Kim looking to end a 10-pitch at-bat and the third inning.

 

Tonight, however, in the third or fourth innings, Santana relied more on his offspeed slider and changeup than he usually did. He said it was mostly situational, but that he was also trying to get a better feel for his changeup. “It was working pretty good today,” he said after the game.

 

One of the mysteries yesterday was that Pitch F/X listed about 1% of his pitches as a “cutter,” which he doesn’t throw. I don’t know if this is just because he fastball has a little more movement than most, or if his changeup is a little faster than most. Tonight he had a few changeups that were 87 or 88 mph, so perhaps that was what was being tracked.

 

Finally, after watching him, I’m of the opinion that he has been successful because his fastball and his slider are both just very good pitches. What contact was made tonight was made on his fastball, but batters mostly have a very defensive reaction to both of those pitches. If he can rely on that changeup (he even used it a couple times versus right-handers tonight, despite it moving towards them), he could have another very good season.

 

A Twist In The Fifth Starter Competition

The fifth starter competition will take an unanticipated twist tomorrow. A few days ago I wrote about how innings are becoming scarce for players like Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia who are trying to win the fifth spot in the rotation. Tomorrow was their turn in the rotation, but Hector Santiago is back and starting vs the Orioles tomorrow night. So at 10 AM, Duffey and Mejia will be facing the Red Sox AAA and AA teams along with their battery mates John Ryan Murphy and Chris Giminez.

 

 

Perkins And Twins Meet

Finally, we also got some news on Glen Perkins. He met with the Twins and they talked about developing a plan for him that doesn’t include throwing in any games this spring. Exactly what that plan is - whether it means putting him on the 60-day DL or whether he will continue working through his injury in Minnesota or Fort Myers - is not yet determined. But when asked if the Twins and Perkins see eye-to-eye on things, CBO Derek Falvey said “That was the best part of the meeting the other day. We went into it asking how he felt. He said he feels good; he’s progressing. So we feel on the same page, with respect to the plan. I’m not concerned about that at all.”

 

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[KirbyDome89]

So this offseason they fail to sign any impact arm to aid what was one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and now they've decided to send the only impact pitcher they potentially have down to AAA. I'm not sure which scenario is more discouraging; Molitor once again showing no interest in getting the younger guys innings, or the new FO taking what seems to be a very familiar approach....

 

Don't get me started on the "he adds depth," angle. The pitcher taking his spot can be that depth. Depth isn't an excuse for a lesser pitcher starting the season in the bullpen. 

[The Wise One]

I guess Ryan Pressly will be the next Twin failed starter turned dominant reliever

 

[Eris]

Chargois has had a difficult spring. A WHIP over 2. There are only 5 pitchers in the Twins camp whose WHIP are worse. He deserved to be sent down. We get seduced by Chargois' velocity but he has been very hittable.

[Old Twins Cap]

The key to pitching, even the bullpen, is the starting rotation.  You get guys to throw into the 6th-7th-8th inning, now your bulllpen guys are fresh, live-arms coming in to close out the game.

 

Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Rogers -- that's not a bad back half, if they are not overworked.

[jorgenswest]

I hope that Chargois' demotion doesn't lead to Duffey in the bullpen. They can't give up on the possibility he is a useful starter and we saw how they were not able to stretch out May last year once he was on the pen. There were numerous needs for a starter.

 

Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that.

 

He is a groundball pitcher with a double play rate that tanked last year. Give him Adrianza when he starts. He had an extremely high HR/FB rate last year. That rate will regress. Let's see if Castro has an impact on his sequencing and location.

 

I don't care if he is the 5th starter or starting in AAA on opening day. I do care that he is a starter. The Twins need to develop their own middle and back of the rotation starters.

[drjim]

Yes, Chargois was certainly a "surprise" demotion. The spot was there for him and he blew it. Hopefully just a hiccup and not a harbinger of things to come in his career.

[drjim]

I hope that Chargois' demotion doesn't lead to Duffey in the bullpen. They can't give up on the possibility he is a useful starter and we saw how they were not able to stretch out May last year once he was on the pen. There were numerous needs for a starter.

 

Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that.

 

He is a groundball pitcher with a double play rate that tanked last year. Give him Adrianza when he starts. He had an extremely high HR/FB rate last year. That rate will regress. Let's see if Castro has an impact on his sequencing and location.

 

I don't care if he is the 5th starter or starting in AAA on opening day. I do care that he is a starter. The Twins need to develop their own middle and back of the rotation starters.

Much more likely they keep Haley as the long man for all the reasons you mention. It will be Mejia or Duffey in the 5 spot and the other starting in AAA.

 

Duffey has had a nice recovery this spring. I feared his starting days were over after last season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Chargois could have helped his case by not getting hit so hard. I would love to see Berrios and Duffey in the opening day rotation. If they can't get on track after a half dozen starts, you send them to AAA. As soon as they string together 2-3 good starts or get their mechanics back or whatever, call them back up. That's what option years are for. I never understood why the Twins turned that formula on its head. And if Berrios and Duffey start in the rotation and do well, all the better.

[drjim]

Chargois could have helped his case by not getting hit so hard. I would love to see Berrios and Duffey in the opening day rotation. If they can't get on track after a half dozen starts, you send them to AAA. As soon as they string together 2-3 good starts or get their mechanics back or whatever, call them back up. That's what option years are for. I never understood why the Twins turned that formula on its head. And if Berrios and Duffey start in the rotation and do well, all the better.

It's true, not being a good pitcher all spring doomed Chargois.

 

Your second point is a little more complex. It's not just the Twins who do that. There are issues of maintaining starting pitching depth, putting young pitchers in a position to succeed and trying to avoid shuttling them back and forth.

 

I suspect that when Berrios is on the major league roster they want him there for good, not as a trial run. They are probably a little less concerned about Mejia and Duffey.

[USAFChief]

I hope that Chargois' demotion doesn't lead to Duffey in the bullpen. They can't give up on the possibility he is a useful starter and we saw how they were not able to stretch out May last year once he was on the pen. There were numerous needs for a starter.

 

Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that.

 

He is a groundball pitcher with a double play rate that tanked last year. Give him Adrianza when he starts. He had an extremely high HR/FB rate last year. That rate will regress. Let's see if Castro has an impact on his sequencing and location.

 

I don't care if he is the 5th starter or starting in AAA on opening day. I do care that he is a starter. The Twins need to develop their own middle and back of the rotation starters.

Just my opinion, but Duffy will never be a successful big league starter. He doesn't have the pitches. He might be a very good reliever, though. Move him there now.

[theBOMisthebomb]

This is disappointing as I was hoping that Shaggy could slide into the closer's role by midsummer. How much was the demotion influenced by his spring training numbers being down? The importance of spring training numbers has always been mysterious.

[beckmt]

Let's put the blame where it belongs. Monitor's family and Pohlad's family are friends. I would hate to see at midseason the FO wants to fire Paul and Paul tells Him Pohlad's they have not provided the pitching help needed. So the new FO either quits or is forced to trade prospects for immediate help, that would be the disaster.

[tobi0040]

Unless Duffey somehow developed a third pitch this offseason, we should shut the door on his starting career.

[tobi0040]

Unless Duffey somehow developed a third pitch this offseason, we should shut the door on his starting career.

[Dave The Dastardly]

"But to change course on the reliever with the highest upside because of a middling spring training performance is either short-sighted or a flawed philosophy. "

 

Actually I think it's both; short-sighted front office and Molly's flawed (and failed) philosophy. Saints preserve us! (That can be taken two different ways if you think about it.)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's true, not being a good pitcher all spring doomed Chargois.

Your second point is a little more complex. It's not just the Twins who do that. There are issues of maintaining starting pitching depth, putting young pitchers in a position to succeed and trying to avoid shuttling them back and forth.

I suspect that when Berrios is on the major league roster they want him there for good, not as a trial run. They are probably a little less concerned about Mejia and Duffey.

All true. It's just so hard to watch a guy like Berrios pitch so well in the minors for so long.

[drjim]

Does anyone here, ever, lay any accountability at the feet of the young player? Or are their failures always the fault of coaching and management?

[USAFChief]

Does anyone here, ever, lay any accountability at the feet of the young player? Or are their failures always the fault of coaching and management?

No.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Unless Duffey somehow developed a third pitch this offseason, we should shut the door on his starting career.

I get that, but the tricky thing with the so-called "third pitch" is maybe most starts you don't need to throw it but a couple of times. Duffey pitched well enough at the end of 2015 and is young enough that we should extend him some more rope imo.

[mikelink45]

My old mantra - we need a coaching staff that knows how to get players over the hump from great in the minors to at least productive in the Majors.  We are wasting talent and the repetition of these events is a solid condemnation of the process.  I also have a difficult time seeing Santiago going as the MLB starter and the two promising young pitchers going AAA and AA games.  We know Santiago.  He can stretch out versus the MIBL players as well as MLB.   What does Paul have to see?  Shouldn't he want to see the progress and potential of the young pitchers?

 

Chargois does not bother me when I look at his performance, but I have to question the pitching coach and staff who did not help him progress during the ST season when players are supposed to be learning, developing...

[jorgenswest]

Duffey threw his change at about the same rate and effectiveness as Santana threw his third pitch.

 

Santana has been a successful starter throwing a 4 seam fastball and slider over 90% of the time in his career.

 

Last year

 

4seam 55.3%

Sinker 1.0%

Slider 39.1%

Change 7.9%

 

Duffey

4seam 28.8%

Sinker 24.5%

Cutter 1.1%

Curve 38.7%

Change 6.8%

 

Is it possible that the research on xFIP and Siera is correct? Is it possible Duffey's awful ERA last year was fueled by very poor defense and a HR/FB rate that was 20% that will regress? Bad luck and bad defense or bad pitcher? Do you believe ERA or the components of his pitching line that Duffey controls?

[DocBauer]

Bummer about Chargois to be sure. I had him as a sure bet initially. I'm sure he will be back soon and probably for good. But I think there is still a difference between someone established and working on something vs a young arm just not throwing well. It's hard to say someone throwing better that he doesn't deserve the opportunity.

[DocBauer]

I also agree with Hosken on Duffey. Still too early to give up him as a starter. While a 3rd pitch, or the threat of one, could help, he throws 2 different fastballs and 2 different curves. His biggest problem last season was his FB command.

[bluechipper]

All Chargois had to do to make the team was not be awful this spring, and he couldn't do that. I probably would've still put him on the opening day roster anyway, but Chargois is the person who should be blamed here.

[Willihammer]

Chargois has had a difficult spring. A WHIP over 2. There are only 5 pitchers in the Twins camp whose WHIP are worse.

Only 5? We're comin!

[HitInAPinch]

Not sure that Chargois is a big pressure guy.  If I remember correctly, when he was called up last year he had a terrible start, but righted himself. 

 

If Spring Training was longer or JT had more chances, would he have righted himself again?

[nicksaviking]

Does anyone here, ever, lay any accountability at the feet of the young player? Or are their failures always the fault of coaching and management?

I get it and we do tend to want to give the young players the benefit of the doubt, but I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's almost always a completion between young vs veteran and the veteran seems to always get the playing field slanted in their favor even when recent production and age should probably dictate otherwise.

 

Cheering for the underdog in a rigged contest is a pretty natural reaction.

[Kelly Vance]

I have to laugh when I see an article saying it is a mistake to send down a pitcher with an ERA over 8. JT needs to work some things out and you don't do that in a low leverage spot in the big team's pen.

[drjim]

 

I get it and we do tend to want to give the young players the benefit of the doubt, but I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's almost always a completion between young vs veteran and the veteran seems to always get the playing field slanted in their favor even when recent production and age should probably dictate otherwise.

Cheering for the underdog in a rigged contest is a pretty natural reaction.

 

I do think a young player should have to beat out an older/established player. That just mirrors the reality of most other industries. This isn't "rigged".

 

Beyond that, a big part of the disconnect is that if a player is established it is very easy to point out and hammer on their weaknesses, while on the flip side with a younger player it is very easy to dream on what they might be, even if (or perhaps especially because) they have never done anything in majors to prove that reality.

 

I want young players to succeed and take positions, I really do. But I don't understand the hurry to give them spots on the roster they haven't done anything to earn. Or the thinking of "let's just put out there and they'll be fine." The big leagues is hard. Doubly so if players are put in a position that does not maximize their ability to succeed.