Article: Is The Buxton Era Beginning?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins' schedule is slowly coming to an end and many fans might be turning away as the losses continue to mount. But while fans are averting their gaze, they could be missing the start of something special on the field.

 

After struggling through his first 100+ games, Byron Buxton might finally be putting together all the skills that made him one of baseball's best prospects. Is the Buxton Era beginning in Minnesota?Being able to adjust to pitching at baseball's highest level can be one of the toughest challenges. When the Twins drafted Buxton, a concern surrounding him was the fact that he played his entire amateur career in rural Georgia. Even with this background, he showed few hitting concerns as he moved through the Twins system.

 

Buxton has dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues over parts of the last two seasons. In 2015, he hit .305/.367/.500 at Double-A and Triple-A. The 2016 season has been even better as his Triple-A OPS is up to .927 while hitting double digit home runs at a level for only the second time in career. All the signs were there but the transition to baseball's highest level wasn't smooth.

 

Through his first 109 games, Buxton batted .199/.248/.319 while posting a 34.8% K%. Pitchers were overpowering him at the plate. There were sprinkles of positive signs but the overall numbers don't lie. Something had to change with the 22-year old uber prospect and maybe he finally found the cure for his big league blues.

 

One of the biggest changes for Buxton this season might be the return of his leg kick. Minnesota tried to have Buxton cut back on this movement after drafting him. According to FanGraphs, the Twins organization has a "front foot down early" hitting approach. At the beginning of this season his leg kick wasn't there but throughout this season his leg kick has re-emerged.

 

Since being recalled on September 1, Buxton has looked like he might finally be hitting his stride at the big league level. Entering play on Wednesday, Buxton has gone 15-for-43 with five home runs and four doubles in his last 12 games. Obviously this isn't a huge sample size but the Twins are searching for small rays of hope during this mess of a season.

 

It may be too early to declare the official start of the Byron Buxton era but he is certainly one of many reasons to watch the Twins as the season winds to a close. Minnesota's future is tied to Buxton's success. He will need to continue to make adjustments but we could be on the cusp of a new era for the Twins.

 

Click here to view the article

[Blackjack]

Lets revisit this next year at this time, if he's still hitting at the same pace, then maybe I'll be convinced. Right now is too small of a sample size. Pitchers are going to try different tactics, lets see if Byron can adjust. Not convinced yet.

 

It will also be interesting to see at this time next year how much time BB spends on the injury list. There is fine line between playing hard and playing smart and I don't think he plays smart. Diving for every ball and running into walls is going to get him hurt. Are you better off having a great player play 100 games a year (with 50 on the disabled list) or are you better off having a very good player play 150 games??

[jimmer]

 

 

He's been back for, what, 13 games now?

 

In the last 14 days, he's started 12 games and hit .333/.404/.714 in 48 PA.  He's also sported a BABIP of .455.  He's struck out 33% of the time, which is very close to striking out as much as Cody said he had in his first 109 games.

 

Then you look at what he's done in the last 7 days (which is included in the awesome last 14 games time frame): 6 games started, 24 PA, .158/.304/.316. (with a BABIP of .222), striking out 40%.

 

So what's happened was, he had an AWESOME first week back.  That's what happened.  He looks better, but he's got a ways to go.

Edited September 15, 2016 by jimmer

[Craig Arko]

As long as it's accompanied by the Sano era, the Berrios era, and the Kepler era, count me in.

[HitInAPinch]

 

As long as it's accompanied by the Sano era, the Berrios era, and the Kepler era, count me in.

2 out of 3.  I don't Berrios will be one of those guys.  The whole "not consistently throwing his fastball for strikes" thingy is not a good thingy.  

[HitInAPinch]

Buxton has looked a lot better.  The approach / mechanics are consistent now.  No toe-tappy thing.  From my eyes, Buxton is doing the "front foot down early" thing. 

 

SSS, sure.  Signs of hope?  Hopefully.  Call me in a couple hundred AB's.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, he finished strong last year if memory serves me right... I just want to see him cut down the Ks.

[Old Twins Cap]

Either Buxton is the stud that the entire Baseball Establishment has crowned him as or he's the biggest bust of the 21st century.

 

Like the aggressive swings he is taking now.  I can handle 30% strikeout rate if he hits 30 HRs, though that's a different player than I imagined.

 

Twins' luck has been really poor ever since Cuddyer hit a ground ball to 2B in Toronto in 2010.  At some point, we get lucky again.

[scottz]

 

Twins' luck has been really poor ever since Cuddyer hit a ground ball to 2B in Toronto in 2010.  At some point, we get lucky again.

We just need to duplicate that scenario again to reverse the jinx. The next time we're in Toronto, whenever someone gets on first base, we should try to just hit nothing but grounders to 2B until the runner gets a knee to the head.

Although, then the runner will probably wake up, and realize it was all a dream. And instead of being a baseball player, he's really a writer who runs a bed and breakfast with his wife in Vermont.

[twinsnorth49]

Eye test says he looks a little more confident and his approach seems more consistent. He's still striking out an awful lot but on the surface he doesn't seem to be flailing as much, he's had much better AB's than previous IMO. Deer in the headlights look is gone.

 

Whatever that's worth.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Is the Buxton era beginning?

 

Certainly, but Buxton will be to Sano and Polanco what Gaetti was to Puckett and Hrbek.   Thus term "Buxton era" is equivalent to that of "Gaetti era".

Edited September 15, 2016 by Thrylos

[Parker Hageman]

One of the biggest changes for Buxton this season might be the return of his leg kick. Minnesota tried to have Buxton cut back on this movement after drafting him. According to FanGraphs, the Twins organization has a "front foot down early" hitting approach. At the beginning of this season his leg kick wasn't there but throughout this season his leg kick has re-emerged.

 

 

Cooooouuuuuupllllaaaa things:

 

1.) All due respect to Fangraphs, TwinsDaily was the first to report the "front foot down early" hitting approach: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/joe-benson-and-the-twins-hitting-philosophy-r4302

 

2.) Buxton told me in spring about the Twins changing his approach in the minor leagues this past spring training: 

 

“I went into the offseason last year and picked up a little bit of a leg kick, not too big,” Buxton said of his subtle change. “I want to keep [the leg kick] where it's at -- not too big, not trying to being overpowering. Keep me back behind the ball. Keep my head still. It's more for me to get that edge to make contact a little bit more, try to hit the ball hard and more consistent.”

With the new leg kick, Buxton is going back to his roots. Before he was drafted by the Twins he displayed an open stance with a leg kick but that was changed shortly after he entered the organization. “They changed me in rookie ball,” he says of the switch. “They closed me up and tried to slow down some of my movement a bit.”

 

 

3. He did come into the season with the leg kick, he just did not use it in 2-strike situations:

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/773933777051488256

[gunnarthor]

Eventually, he'll be fine.  He just needs reps.  We're probably over analyzing everything right now.  He's had about 400 PA in the majors and less than 550 PA in AA and AAA combined over the last three (injury plagued) seasons.  Occasionally, you see glimpses of what he can become.  

 

I know WAR has a ton of warts but both b-r and fangraphs have him on a 2+ WAR pace for a full season.  He's been about as valuable this year, in few PA, as Denard Span has been for the Giants.  He has to improve his plate discipline but he's already an asset and he'll get better.  

Edited September 15, 2016 by gunnarthor

[DocBauer]

I've been as disappointed as anyone with his slow start to his ML career. But like any young prospect, it does usually take time to adjust to the level of pitching in the majors. There's a reason these guys...most of them...are pitching in the majors and not AAA. There's a reason guys like Albers can look good to very good as SP in the minors but not Pitch nearly the same at the ML level.

 

Buxton is only 22. He has about 1 full season at the ML level. He did, unfortunately, miss some developmental time in the minors due to injury. Yes, he raked. But time missed to build confidence, to maintain an approach, etc, are all real things.

 

Think about Hunter. Think about Gomez (though he died off rather quickly).

 

Always thought, over time, he may develop more power and sacrifice some speed and SB success, but that's more in the future I think. I believe he'll be fine.

[Shane Wahl]

Yes it is beginning. And with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Mauer, and Vargas in the mix, the offense should be pretty nice next year.

 

I still think he will be a game-changing star.

[shimrod]

"When the Twins drafted Buxton, a concern surrounding him was the fact that he played his entire amateur career in rural Georgia."

 

This has bothered me for a while. A promising young baseball player in the DR (or Germany) can sign professionally and benefit from professional coaching at 16 years of age. U.S. youngsters are stuck with amateur coaching until they graduate H.S. I'm sure there are quality coaches in some districts but none of them were working the rural MN school where I played my H.S. ball. I expect there's more knowledge and experience on a MLB coaching staff than most (if not all) college programs, plus the benefit of year-round instruction and facilities. In this regard I think the U.S. kids are at a definite disadvantage.

 

[Thrylos]

 

Yes it is beginning. And with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Mauer, and Vargas in the mix, the offense should be pretty nice next year.

 

I still think he will be a game-changing star.

 

Hope that 2 off that list, but for sure one, is not a Twins' player next year...

[spinowner]

I think the Buxton Era started on June, 4, 2012. He has matured and improved since that date and that will continue. It's a process, but he will be a top-flight major leaguer.

[spinowner]

 

"When the Twins drafted Buxton, a concern surrounding him was the fact that he played his entire amateur career in rural Georgia."

 

This has bothered me for a while. A promising young baseball player in the DR (or Germany) can sign professionally and benefit from professional coaching at 16 years of age. U.S. youngsters are stuck with amateur coaching until they graduate H.S. I'm sure there are quality coaches in some districts but none of them were working the rural MN school where I played my H.S. ball. I expect there's more knowledge and experience on a MLB coaching staff than most (if not all) college programs, plus the benefit of year-round instruction and facilities. In this regard I think the U.S. kids are at a definite disadvantage.

This is an interesting point. HS hockey players can leave school for junior hockey. There are a number of private high schools that have missions to develop on-court skills for basketball players. I'm not aware of anything similar for baseball players.

[Parker Hageman]

 

"When the Twins drafted Buxton, a concern surrounding him was the fact that he played his entire amateur career in rural Georgia."

 

This has bothered me for a while. A promising young baseball player in the DR (or Germany) can sign professionally and benefit from professional coaching at 16 years of age. U.S. youngsters are stuck with amateur coaching until they graduate H.S. I'm sure there are quality coaches in some districts but none of them were working the rural MN school where I played my H.S. ball. I expect there's more knowledge and experience on a MLB coaching staff than most (if not all) college programs, plus the benefit of year-round instruction and facilities. In this regard I think the U.S. kids are at a definite disadvantage.

 

I assure you with all the showcases and club teams, there is ample coaching for all US kids as well -- particularly those who stand out. 

 

Most metro areas have multiple facilities run by former college and pro players which operate club teams and do bring in kids from outside of the metro as well. In Buxton's case, his area of Georgia had Round Trip Baseball which taught kids but the program was still pretty new and paled in comparison to some of the programs around Atlanta and East Cobb. I do think this puts rural and low-income players at a disadvantage but the opportunity to get the right instructions still exist. 

 

In many ways those are similar to the camps the agents in the Dominican run -- only parents pay through the nose to get their kids the "best" instruction whereas the DR agent takes a chunk of your pro earnings if you sign a contract. 

 

 

[Champuckett]

Every time Buxton has come up from AAA, he has gotten off to a hot start and then cooled down after around a week.  It seems this may be the case again, although he had a nice game today.

 

I don't think we can conclude anything either way yet.

[shimrod]

I don't doubt there is opportunity for U.S. kids, esp. those whose parents can afford to "pay through the nose". I still have trouble believing baseball camps and traveling teams offer training equivalent to full-time professional coaching. I've had no experience with either situation so I'll defer to your expertise.

[jokin]

 

I think the Buxton Era started on June, 4, 2012. He has matured and improved since that date and that will continue. It's a process, but he will be a top-flight major leaguer.

 

Yes it is beginning. And with Dozier, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Mauer, and Vargas in the mix, the offense should be pretty nice next year.

 

I still think he will be a game-changing star.

 

Bingo, Shane and Spin. He's just too uber-athletic plus an enormously tireless worker to not eventually become a perennial All Star- that's a rare combination and a sure-fire formula for ultimate success.

 

Mark me down (yet again) for Buxton ultimately becoming a 30/30 guy at least once or twice in his career. Over the last 5 seasons since 2012, there are two CFs who far surpass anyone else in MLB- Trout with 46 fWAR and McCutchen with 29. The next tier of CFs drops off significantly into the 18-19 range- Jones, Cain and GoGo (avg.- ~3.7 fWAR/season).

 

Somewhat incredibly, after Saturday night, Buxton is now rated as ~1.5 in terms of bWAR for 2016 after 79 games played and overall, unquestionably a very tough baptism of fire amid enormous media scrutiny and expectations.

 

He's still only 22 years old.... This third time around, there is a general consensus that he definitely has a more confident look at the plate and the appearance of having a plan- the automatic clueless-looking countless 0-2 count situations have dropped significantly for Buck. I think it's entirely reasonable to expect Jones/Cain/GoGo 3.5 fWAR average type of numbers/year between ages 25-30 as a realistic floor, and somewhere closer towards McCutchen (6 fWAR/season) as a potential/possible ceiling. Not Trout numbers, but definitely not the "bust" as he has so frequently been characterized.

 

Gunnarthor (See Post #13) is spot-on correct with respect to WAR and Buxton's MLB adjustment process, let's see what his production numbers look like during his second 1000 PAs- i'm betting they will be significantly better than his first 500 PAs.

Edited September 18, 2016 by jokin

[John Kelsey]

 

Certainly, but Buxton will be to Sano and Polanco what Gaetti was to Puckett and Hrbek.   Thus term "Buxton era" is equivalent to that of "Gaetti era".

 

What do you see Jorge Polanco becoming? Just out of curiosty.