The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[Major League Ready]

 

I guess that's part of why we're on different pages. I'm hoping this team can build for a run of dominance instead of holding on for hopes of sneaking into a 2nd wildcard spot and then getting smashed in the playoffs like we did through the mid 2000's. Those division wins feel tarnished when you look at how weak the division was and how thoroughly outclassed they were in the posteason.

Hallelujah.   Isn’t that what the previous regime did for years?  Refuse to acknowledge where they stood and refuse to rebuild.  Isn’t that the root cause of much of the angst towards the organization?  Nobody wants to wait, especially after several bad years but this team is not contending even for a wildcard spot until the young core grows up.  This team is a long way from contention and to build from a perspective of maybe we can get a wildcard spot is a foolish.  Even if you get a wildcard spot it becomes a 50/50 chance you actually play a playoff series.

[Rosterman]

A team will need to need a second baseman, yes. So you best bet is trading him midseason when he still has a year on his contract. Otherwise, he becomes a product someone can eventually buy after he plays out his time with the Twins.

 

You might have to pull a Beane and NOT get perceived value for the guy. Remember, it is always about WILL YOU PAY THEM IN THE FUTURE or WHAT CAN YOU GET FOR THEM TODAY, because that other team is also asking WHAT CAN THEY PAY THIS GUY IN THE FUTURE. Any other team will view Dozier's current contract as a good solid one FOR TWO SEASONS. Beyond that, they judge if he is worth it or not, same as the Twins will/are (and the same issue that keeps Plouffe on the Twins team, in the lineup, and possibly in next year's plans).

 

 

[sthpstm]

 

Just answered Mike and I think we are in somewhat agreement on Dozier. But I disagree about contending. Since 2012 we are in the era of 2-wildcard teams per league, and you can't just punt a season anymore just because you're not the best team in the division. A run of dominance is several years away (I think that's what some people mean when they say "contending"), but a wildcard berth is right there for the taking every season for every team. It's not as sexy as the run of division titles in the early 2000s but it still gets the job done if you win that wildcard game.

 

We might trade Dozier but, again, he's not going to bring much back.  Most teams are set at second base. Those that aren't and have a budget can try and nab Neil Walker in free agency instead of giving up prospects.  

 

He might be moved but, frankly, much of next years team will be the same.  The offense is more or less in place.  I think the new GM will nab a cheap starter off the FA list and spend a lot more on the bullpen but the Twins aren't going to be good until the pitching is good.  And that means the Twins need Gibson, Berrios, Hughes, May and Santiago to pitch better.  There isn't going to be a magic bullet to fix that and I doubt that Dozier could bring back something that improves it.  

1 year of Howie Kendrick got Andrew Heaney, a top 30 or so prospect just starting in the majors - sadly out for TJ this year. 1 year of Neil Walker brought back 3 years (2 as options) of an established back of the rotation starter, Jon Niese.  2+ months of Ben Zobrist brought back Sean Manea, a top 75 or so prospect close to the majors plus a AAAA player. 

I can't think of many better comparisons, so I would start there; each trade brought back 1 SP for next year. I would expect more for Dozier than these comps since he is arguable better than all 3, he is younger than all 3 were at the time of those trades. I would expect the first piece to be a Heaney or Manea, not a Niese. 

You may be right that only a few teams have a glaring hole at second next year, but it only takes one, and you don't know who else might view him as an upgrade. If teams agree with the recent Fangraphs article that his changes to his swing are positive and permanent, you never know.

[tobi0040]

We might trade Dozier but, again, he's not going to bring much back. Most teams are set at second base. Those that aren't and have a budget can try and nab Neil Walker in free agency instead of giving up prospects.

 

He might be moved but, frankly, much of next years team will be the same. The offense is more or less in place. I think the new GM will nab a cheap starter off the FA list and spend a lot more on the bullpen but the Twins aren't going to be good until the pitching is good. And that means the Twins need Gibson, Berrios, Hughes, May and Santiago to pitch better. There isn't going to be a magic bullet to fix that and I doubt that Dozier could bring back something that improves it.

I am not sure I get the meme about not getting value back for Dozier. He has been a 12 WAR player over 3 years and will average 7.5 million the next two years.

 

I think the biggest reason above the ones mentioned above is that our rotation is in shambles and has been for five years. We could probably have three or four Dozier's and not be a playoff team because our pitching is terrible. He is the only veteran on our roster that could help bring good young pitching back.

 

If we move Dozier and Plouffe we may clear as much as 25 million this year. We can probably buy a pitcher in free agency and a decent catcher, plus have some good prospects. That seems like a good path forward to me.

[Platoon]

I have read several posts here, and in other threads that this teams offense is set? Which by implication means it's defense must also be. You are not going to win anything significant with this defense. Now, I don't call struggling to squeeze into the second WC for a one and done significant. As for offense? Offensive baseball is a streak of 7 runs, then a streak of 2 runs. The bottom line, over a season, is that good pitching beats good hitting. Trade Dozier, Plouffe, and Santana for the best you can get in the areas of MI, C, SP. and move on from the "rebuild" of the Plouffe Dozier Suzuki era.

[adorduan]

As good as Dozier has been, I don't see teams giving up their #1 or #2 or their best pitching prospect for him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He's on his way to being a 6 WAR player. Some one will trade something nice for him. 

[wsnydes]

 

Just answered Mike and I think we are in somewhat agreement on Dozier. But I disagree about contending. Since 2012 we are in the era of 2-wildcard teams per league, and you can't just punt a season anymore just because you're not the best team in the division. A run of dominance is several years away (I think that's what some people mean when they say "contending"), but a wildcard berth is right there for the taking every season for every team. It's not as sexy as the run of division titles in the early 2000s but it still gets the job done if you win that wildcard game.

In order to even sniff the 2nd wild card spot, this team will have to get back to a .500 team first.  In order to do that, they're going to have to improve by 20+ wins over this season.  If they do that, I'd be absolutely elated.  However, a .500 team isn't getting into the playoffs.  The lowest win total of a 2nd WC spot winner was 86 games, but the others had 88 wins and over.  That would be quite the improvement on a team virtually void of pitching and defense from one year to the next.  I just don't see that as realistic for next season. I'd absolutely love to be wrong, but I just don't see it happening. 

[Blake]

I am reluctantly in the "trade Dozeir" camp. He needs to be traded to a contending team, which would be doing him a favor, for a boatload of prospects. 

 

Santana is a decent pitcher and might command a decent return. However, I believe he's on the downside and may not bring as much of a return as people think.

[gunnarthor]

 

I am not sure I get the meme about not getting value back for Dozier. He has been a 12 WAR player over 3 years and will average 7.5 million the next two years.

I think the biggest reason above the ones mentioned above is that our rotation is in shambles and has been for five years. We could probably have three or four Dozier's and not be a playoff team because our pitching is terrible. He is the only veteran on our roster that could help bring good young pitching back.

If we move Dozier and Plouffe we may clear as much as 25 million this year. We can probably buy a pitcher in free agency and a decent catcher, plus have some good prospects. That seems like a good path forward to me.

I might be wrong - I hope I'm wrong.  But it doesn't look like a lot of teams that are in win-now mode actually need a second baseman. About 20 second baseman have reached the 2 WAR plateau this year.  Obviously, Dozier is much higher and might reach 6 but second base just isn't a weakness for most teams.   Dozier is better than Roughened Odor but the Rangers aren't going to give up on Odor, for example.  The Dodgers and Yankees might need a second baseman (maybe a few more teams).  But in FA you also have Neil Walker.  Maybe a team would prefer two years of Dozier to the 4 years Walker would want but maybe a team doesn't want to part with a prospect for Dozier.  So I just an worried that there isn't the demand for him that we would want.  I hope I'm wrong and someone else pointed out a list of recent second base trades that are certainly good so hopefully I'm wrong.  But that's what I think.

 

Put another way - here are the teams in the bottom half of second base WAR this year that could (arguably) be competing for a playoff spot next year - Baltimore, Miami, Texas, Dodgers, Pirates, Yankees, Royals and Angels.  Baltimore isn't giving up on Schoop and Texas isn't giving up on Odor.  Royals and Twins won't make a big trade with each other, anyway.  Angels might not be competing next year but they have the best player in the game and $.  But no prospects.  So that leaves maybe LA, NY, Miami and Pitt.  I'm not sure what other teams would be there and Miami and Pitt have payroll concerns.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hallelujah.   Isn’t that what the previous regime did for years?  Refuse to acknowledge where they stood and refuse to rebuild.  Isn’t that the root cause of much of the angst towards the organization?  Nobody wants to wait, especially after several bad years but this team is not contending even for a wildcard spot until the young core grows up.  This team is a long way from contention and to build from a perspective of maybe we can get a wildcard spot is a foolish.  Even if you get a wildcard spot it becomes a 50/50 chance you actually play a playoff series.

 

For all we argue on here sometimes, we seem to really agree on this core issue. (probably a lot more also).

[DocBauer]

No question the Dozier, and Santana, topic and what to do, or not do, is the new hot topic these days. And it's a good article and it's anot interesting topic of debate. But the real key first and foremost, to state the obvious, is the change in the front office and who's going to be running the show. The new guys in charge will, hopefully, be progressive in their thinking. Despite Pohlad claiming Molitor is the manager next year, I don't believe he and his staff are truly safe. I don't believe the milb staffs are safe either. Somewhere along the line there appears to be a disconnect in the handling of prospects.

 

Dozier COULD bring back a top of the rotation arm, or at worst, a top, top rotation prospect ready for prime time. But you also lose his offense, and then need another infield addition to replace him and create depth and competition. (And don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Polanco believer and supporter). But I have to ask, if you felt comfortable and confident that Berrios, May and Mejia would be ready to take a step forward next season and be reliable, would you still be in favor of moving Dozier?

 

Granted, there is no way to automatically instill such confidence at this time. And moving Dozier, if you can find the right trade and trade partner, could be a savy move. But he'll only be 30 next season, could still be moved later, or signed to an extension, while Polanco and Escobar form a nice SS/utility mix/battle and you roll with Santana-Gibson-Berrios-May-Mejia with Santiago maybe here, maybe gone, and guys like Gonsalves getting close.

 

NOT saying don't trade him if a big value is there, but I have to wonder if the smart move isn't keeping him, examine changes in the field staff and how prospects are handled, and go with the names mentioned above.

[Mike Sixel]

If I felt comfortable that Berrios, who has looked lost in the majors, May, who has not started in 18 months and can't stay healthy, and a guy who hasn't pitched above AAA and who isn't exactly dominate there were all going to be good? Is that the question?

 

Is that like asking .... if Sano can field better, if Suzuki can field better, if Grossman can field better, am I good with the defensive alignment?

[Vanimal46]

We're speaking in such absolutes on this thread. Do we know what Dozier's market is? Are we aware that teams don't think Dozier is an upgrade compared to what they already have? 

[sthpstm]

 

If I felt comfortable that Berrios, who has looked lost in the majors, May, who has not started in 18 months and can't stay healthy, and a guy who hasn't pitched above AAA and who isn't exactly dominate there were all going to be good? Is that the question?

 

Is that like asking .... if Sano can field better, if Suzuki can field better, if Grossman can field better, am I good with the defensive alignment?

Mike, Mike, Mike. How can you make such a grossly inaccurate statement? Meija pitched 2.1 innings in the majors this year.

[tobi0040]

 

We're speaking in such absolutes on this thread. Do we know what Dozier's market is? Are we aware that teams don't think Dozier is an upgrade compared to what they already have? 

 

I don’t get the notion that other teams would not feel that Dozier is an upgrade.  What are we basing this belief on?  From 2014 to now he is third in baseball among 2B with 12.8 WAR.  I get that some teams have bigger needs than 2B.  So if they were to move prospects it would be somewhere else. Other teams may be waiting on a prospect.  But there are a lot of teams that don’t fit either one of those buckets.

 

I think we have been so bad that we don’t appreciate how good certain players have been.  Mauer had a 6-7 year stretch where he was under-appreciated.  Denard Span is another.  I think Dozier fits this mold too.   Just because we may lose 100 games doesn’t mean teams won’t want a 4-6 WAR guy at 2B who makes $7.5m.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Kwak]

 

I might be wrong - I hope I'm wrong.  But it doesn't look like a lot of teams that are in win-now mode actually need a second baseman. About 20 second baseman have reached the 2 WAR plateau this year.  Obviously, Dozier is much higher and might reach 6 but second base just isn't a weakness for most teams.   Dozier is better than Roughened Odor but the Rangers aren't going to give up on Odor, for example.  The Dodgers and Yankees might need a second baseman (maybe a few more teams).  But in FA you also have Neil Walker.  Maybe a team would prefer two years of Dozier to the 4 years Walker would want but maybe a team doesn't want to part with a prospect for Dozier.  So I just an worried that there isn't the demand for him that we would want.  I hope I'm wrong and someone else pointed out a list of recent second base trades that are certainly good so hopefully I'm wrong.  But that's what I think.

 

Put another way - here are the teams in the bottom half of second base WAR this year that could (arguably) be competing for a playoff spot next year - Baltimore, Miami, Texas, Dodgers, Pirates, Yankees, Royals and Angels.  Baltimore isn't giving up on Schoop and Texas isn't giving up on Odor.  Royals and Twins won't make a big trade with each other, anyway.  Angels might not be competing next year but they have the best player in the game and $.  But no prospects.  So that leaves maybe LA, NY, Miami and Pitt.  I'm not sure what other teams would be there and Miami and Pitt have payroll concerns.

Wow! How did you get all of that inside information?

Teams won't be looking at Dozier as a 2B--they will look at him as "Offense" (who plays 2B). Who needs offense? Money isn't a deterrent--the two years left on his contract make him very affordable for many teams, even a KC! Three-way deals happen in the off-season to circumvent the prospect-poor teams with money and immediate need. Trading Dozier won't be a problem for a skilled GM.

[Vanimal46]

Wow! How did you get all of that inside information?

Teams won't be looking at Dozier as a 2B--they will look at him as "Offense" (who plays 2B). Who needs offense? Money isn't a deterrent--the two years left on his contract make him very affordable for many teams, even a KC! Three-way deals happen in the off-season to circumvent the prospect-poor teams with money and immediate need. Trading Dozier won't be a problem for a skilled GM.

Correct. Dozier can easily slide into a DH spot in the AL, or could usurp some other 2B in the NL based on the offensive value he provides.

 

There's also going to be teams off of our radars who could make win now moves. A la San Diego 2 or 3 years ago, Arizona last year, etc.

[Doomtints]

Any team would be thrilled to have a power bat/rarely-injured player in the middle of the infield.  I think his defense is overrated but other pundits don't see it, so other GMs might not see it either.  If Dozier is still here, the Twins haven't tried to trade him.  

 

With Polanco in the wings, this is a great opportunity for the Twins.  A different GM will see it.  

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Wow! How did you get all of that inside information?

Teams won't be looking at Dozier as a 2B--they will look at him as "Offense" (who plays 2B). Who needs offense? Money isn't a deterrent--the two years left on his contract make him very affordable for many teams, even a KC! Three-way deals happen in the off-season to circumvent the prospect-poor teams with money and immediate need. Trading Dozier won't be a problem for a skilled GM.

No reason to be a dick.  I just don't think a lot of teams are hurting at second base and explained why.  If you think teams want "offense" then FA is pretty good option this year.  I'm not saying that teams don't want Dozier - he's a very good player.  But we aren't (hopefully) going to give him away.  And what we need - good starting pitching - is the hardest thing to get.  I don't think the Dodgers would give up De Leon for Dozier, for example and Toronto probably isn't going to give us Reid Foley.  Some teams might give up something equivalent to a Meija/Santiago package but we might want more.  So I don't think there will be a seller's market for Dozier.

 

I could be wrong and, as I've said, I hope I am.  

[h2oface]

Horrible free agent crop this year. Trade for who exactly? More hope and dreams? Trade prospects. Tired of all the failed prospects and their hype. 6 years and that is what isn't changing. Poor prospect choices. Coming up pretty average or worse.

[h2oface]

Molitor led this team. Ryan supplied the pitching. Pitching, all of it, IS the problem. Trading Dozier won't even dent that continuing plague. Not even a nick...... so why do it? Take the prime years you always hoped for, and get pitching through other means.

[h2oface]

No reason to be a dick.

Yup. He just called you a dick right here on polite TD. Hmmmmmmm

[Platoon]

Horrible free agent crop this year. Trade for who exactly? More hope and dreams? Trade prospects. Tired of all the failed prospects and their hype. 6 years and that is what isn't changing. Poor prospect choices. Coming up pretty average or worse.

  

Molitor led this team. Ryan supplied the pitching. Pitching, all of it, IS the problem. Trading Dozier won't even dent that continuing plague. Not even a nick...... so why do it? Take the prime years you always hoped for, and get pitching through other means.

Pardon me if I misinterpret here, but you don't trade for FA. And frankly, our true prospects are just getting their feet wet. Most of them less than a year. Look at the timeline KC had to get theirs going, it was around two full years, or more. As for pitching, you have to give up something to get something. Yes, Sano or Buxton might yield in the Dozier neighborhood. Then we can watch them in another city for 5 years, and watch Dozier somewhere else in two. Brian Dozier is a valuable player to the right team, at the right time. This is not that situation. If and when this team reaches maturity, it will (sadly) be 2018. Dozier will be 32, and likely his best years behind him. Just once, sell high with a plan for the future, and by future I don't mean simply next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Let me summarize where I think this conversation has gone. We should trade Dozier because...

 

...because he might be at his highest value right now and he will bring back players who will provide value in the future. I can understand this, but cannot get on board with it completely.

 

...because this team needs more young talent in the organization, even though our farm system has been rated at the top for several years?

 

...because other teams will trip all over each other to send us their best pitching prospects, and it will be sweet having all these great new pitchers on our team? I doubt it.

 

...because no team ever goes from last to first, or flips a W-L record by 20-25 games?

 

...because it's foolish to take the wild card game seriously, even though wild card teams have won the World Series?

 

I am hoping to go into 2017 optimistic. Not fair to the fans or players to punt on a season before it even starts!

[Bark's Lounge]

I am not against the trade Dozier crowd or against the don't trade Dozier crowd. The right thing to do to me is in gray area.

 

For a franchise that has taken it's lumps in finding power hitting players, it is refreshing to see Dozier put up the numbers he has - good all around. When a Twins player hits 30HR's it is a shocking event. The Twins did not have a 30HR guy for 10 years during the height of the PHD era. As a fan, I felt left out.

 

Since 2006, we have had 5 individual seasons of 30HR's - Morneau x 2, Hunter 1, Willingham 1, Dozier 1.

 

I doubt Dozier will hit the 40 mark, but if he does, I believe I will cream in my jeans.

 

You only trade Dozier for a Superstar Haul, other than that, I say the Hell with it.

 

Something needs to keep fans interested and HR's do that to some extent for bummed out fans in a bummed out town (Sports Wise).

 

So many things are unpredictable in this game, I could see the Twins bouncing back next season as hard as that is for most to fathom.

[Major League Ready]

 

Molitor led this team. Ryan supplied the pitching. Pitching, all of it, IS the problem. Trading Dozier won't even dent that continuing plague. Not even a nick...... so why do it? Take the prime years you always hoped for, and get pitching through other means.

What other means are you suggesting?  It's very easy to say just do it!  What exactly is your solution?

[Willihammer]

 

What other means are you suggesting?  It's very easy to say just do it!  What exactly is your solution?

Trading a prospect or two for starting pitching is a possibility too.

[jimmer]

 

Trading a prospect or two for starting pitching is a possibility too.

that would be a very unusual move for the Twins.

[Willihammer]

 

that would be a very unusual move for the Twins.

Right, because the Twins are amazing at drafting and developing.