The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[DaveW]

 

Meh. Meyer also had 4 walks in 3.1 IP. Still sounds like the same pitcher who doesn't know where his pitches are going to end up once it leaves his hand.

I was all on board with DFA-ing Nolasco. I still don't mind the trade to try and get someone like Santiago who may be a middle of the rotation arm. Everything about the pitching this season is diseased in Minnesota.  

Santiago isn't a middle of the rotation arm though, he is basically Nolasco with a smaller contract.

Santiago hopefully isn't brought back next season. It was still dumb to give up Meyer in that trade, you can talk about the walks all you want, but on a team this crappy, Meyer was one of the better close to ML ready SP options this club had.

[Vanimal46]

Santiago isn't a middle of the rotation arm though, he is basically Nolasco with a smaller contract.

Santiago hopefully isn't brought back next season. It was still dumb to give up Meyer in that trade, you can talk about the walks all you want, but on a team this crappy, Meyer was one of the better close to ML ready SP options this club had.

I'm not sure why we would dismiss his control issues when that was most likely a key reason why he's no longer in the organization. It never improved, and actually got worse as he moved up through the system.

 

Admittedly I approved the trade because it meant never seeing Nolasco in a Twins uniform again. I won't lose any sleep or get worked up because Meyer is gone too.

[70charger]

 

I would do that in a heartbeat for sure, highly doubt the Dodgers would though.

Also not so fun fact: Meyer pitched fantastic for the LAA today in his start (pitch count of 68 pitches) 5k's in 3IP, 1 H, 1 R

 

Hopefully the next regime knows what a sunk cost is, and doesn't give away one of our best 2 or 3 arms in the system in order to trade away a guy like Nolasco.

We all agree the Twins pitching is a freaking disaster, which makes the moves like dumping Meyer and moving May to the pen even more head scratching.

Basically, I don't think we need to move Dozier to improve our pitching, we just need a front office that is the exact opposite of the old one/current one.

 

If a 1.67 WHIP in a 3 inning start is "fantastic," I have to question what standards you're applying. Are you giving the same benefit of the doubt to the Twins' staff? (And if so, why!?)

[TheLeviathan]

Meyer starts a game, walks four guys, throws nearly 70 pitches to get 10 outs, never sees the fifth inning and we call that "awesome"?

 

Yeesh.

[Willihammer]

I can't believe Alex Meyer is still starting games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Meyer starts a game, walks four guys, throws nearly 70 pitches to get 10 outs, never sees the fifth inning and we call that "awesome"?

 

Yeesh.

Jose Berrios for Cy Young!

 

Unlike others, I wasn't sold on the Meyer trade but it's going to take a lot more than one pretty bad start to get me up in arms about it.

[tobi0040]

 

Jose Berrios for Cy Young!

Unlike others, I wasn't sold on the Meyer trade but it's going to take a lot more than one pretty bad start to get me up in arms about it.

 

The bar is low Brock.

[DaveW]

 

Jose Berrios for Cy Young!

Unlike others, I wasn't sold on the Meyer trade but it's going to take a lot more than one pretty bad start to get me up in arms about it.

Fun fact: Meyer likely would be the 2nd or 3rd best SP on this 25 man roster.

Santana

Berrios

Meyer

Gibson

Dumpster fire

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fun fact: Meyer likely would be the 2nd or 3rd best SP on this 25 man roster.

Santana

Berrios

Meyer

Gibson

Dumpster fire

Dave, come on, man.

 

Meyer has pitched 7.0 innings this season. He has walked 8 guys.

 

Maybe Meyer turns into something - it's why I wasn't thrilled with the trade in the first place - but this is the equivalent of hollering how the Twins made a mistake with Joe Benson because he homered in his first plate appearance after leaving the organization.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

t this is the equivalent of hollering how the Twins made a mistake with Joe Benson because he homered in his first plate appearance after leaving the organization.

 

 

I believe we did that

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I believe we did that

Some did, yes.

[DaveW]

 

Dave, come on, man.

 

Meyer has pitched 7.0 innings this season. He has walked 8 guys.

 

Maybe Meyer turns into something - it's why I wasn't thrilled with the trade in the first place - but this is the equivalent of hollering how the Twins made a mistake with Joe Benson because he homered in his first plate appearance after leaving the organization.

 

Frankly, I would much rather watch Meyer pitch right now then:

 

Gibson (and his 5.60 ERA)

Dean- Terrible

Santiago- Terrible

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Fun fact: Meyer likely would be the 2nd or 3rd best SP on this 25 man roster.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Didn't realize this was a Meyer thread!

 

Anyway, I had a Dozier and Meyer related thought -- Dozier presently has some similarities to Span circa 2012.

 

In 5 career seasons at that point, Span had 17.2 bWAR; Dozier has 18 (in about ~300 more PA).  A lot of that was Dozier's poor rookie season, though -- Dozier had a bigger advantage over the previous 4 seasons (17.3 to 12.9), although about half that advantage is due to PA (Span missing time in 2011 due to the concussion).

 

An even closer inspection suggests the two were a fairly close match in offensive effectiveness prior to Dozier's recent insane HR binge.  Span managed a 5 bWAR season in 2012, mostly thanks to defense, while Dozier will finish at 6+ bWAR this year.

 

Span was going to turn 29 the following February; Dozier turns 30 next May.

 

Span had two more guaranteed years at $11.25 mil total, plus a $9 mil club option ($500k buyout).  Dozier has two years left at $15 mil total.

 

So in terms of what kind of deal could realistically get done, I would expect a Dozier trade return to be closer to the Span return, rather than the elite package that we would demand/prefer.

[GMinTraining]

Another trade with Yankees:

 

Luis Serivino. Starling Castro and Dillion Tate for Dozier, Escobar, Light, Eades

 

Either Castro or Polanco can play 2B and / or SS and you get quality arms in Serivino and Tate

[Mike Sixel]

 

Another trade with Yankees:

 

Luis Serivino. Starling Castro and Dillion Tate for Dozier, Escobar, Light, Eades

 

Either Castro or Polanco can play 2B and / or SS and you get quality arms in Serivino and Tate

 

I don't like either Serivino or Tate all that much.....I have no idea why the Twins would do that trade. Neither is even close to the kind of pitcher they should target, imo. 

[sthpstm]

 

Didn't realize this was a Meyer thread!

 

Anyway, I had a Dozier and Meyer related thought -- Dozier presently has some similarities to Span circa 2012.

 

In 5 career seasons at that point, Span had 17.2 bWAR; Dozier has 18 (in about ~300 more PA).  A lot of that was Dozier's poor rookie season, though -- Dozier had a bigger advantage over the previous 4 seasons (17.3 to 12.9), although about half that advantage is due to PA (Span missing time in 2011 due to the concussion).

 

An even closer inspection suggests the two were a fairly close match in offensive effectiveness prior to Dozier's recent insane HR binge.  Span managed a 5 bWAR season in 2012, mostly thanks to defense, while Dozier will finish at 6+ bWAR this year.

 

Span was going to turn 29 the following February; Dozier turns 30 next May.

 

Span had two more guaranteed years at $11.25 mil total, plus a $9 mil club option ($500k buyout).  Dozier has two years left at $15 mil total.

 

So in terms of what kind of deal could realistically get done, I would expect a Dozier trade return to be closer to the Span return, rather than the elite package that we would demand/prefer.

Thanks for getting the thread back on track!

1 year of Howie Kendrick was worth Andrew Heaney who, at the time of the respective trades, was a higher rated prospect than Meyer and had made several starts in the majors already while Meyer had only pitched at High A.  I think that's a better trade to set a starting bar for the Twins to get over to trade Dozier.

I can't help but wonder if the Twins will get significantly better offers for Dozier centered around top position prospects which would allow them to part with a more desirable MLB piece (Kepler or Sano or Buxton) to get the pitching we all want them to obtain.  No, I don't want to trade any of them, but take Kepler for example. I would think the market and demand for someone like him would be far greater than Dozier.  I think we could come up with a lot more teams who appear to have outfield needs than second base needs. You might get the teams that you really want to bidding (i.e. the Nationals have incredible quality and depth of young, MLB ready pitching; it's hard to imagine them bidding for Dozier, but Kepler or one of the others seems more likely).

I know I'll get a lot of push back for putting these names out there but I think we should all be prepared for some big changes from the next regime. The current roster construction must be altered.  We have what appears to be the potential for a solid core of young of position players getting MLB experience.  The pitching is years behind it.  We can't waste all of these years. I think we need to get some balance between the two. Yes, trading for 2 MLB SP might help next year but look at the price in prospects of the recent trades and consider that with no solid FA SP the price will be costly. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1 year of Howie Kendrick was worth Andrew Heaney who, at the time of the respective trades, was a higher rated prospect than Meyer and had made several starts in the majors already while Meyer had only pitched at High A.  I think that's a better trade to set a starting bar for the Twins to get over to trade Dozier.

That's another good comparable, although Kendrick is a little more complicated because it was a 3-team deal.  (It gets reported as two separate deals, but they were consummated together on the same day.)  The Marlins, the team giving up Heaney, received Dee Gordon among others, and the Dodgers received Austin Barnes among others in addition to Kendrick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So in terms of what kind of deal could realistically get done, I would expect a Dozier trade return to be closer to the Span return, rather than the elite package that we would demand/prefer.

I think the two are close but I believe the value nod goes to Dozier. The lack of a third year is an issue but there were concerns about Span's future production and fewer about Dozier's future production, IMO.

 

In the three seasons preceding the trade, Span accumulated 7.8 fWAR.

 

In the past three seasons, Dozier will have accumulated roughly 14.5 fWAR.

 

In his final season with the Twins, Span was worth 3.4 fWAR.

 

This season, Dozier is going to be worth around 6.0 fWAR.

 

Dozier hits homers, lots of 'em, and does it from a middle infield position.

 

Span is/was a table setter and a pretty good one.

 

I think all of those things combine into a situation where teams will look at acquiring Dozier much more eagerly than they ever did Span. While OBP and table setting has increased in importance over the past few decades, home runs are still king, especially from an up-the-middle position.

 

Though I worry about Dozier's position a bit. Most contending AL teams are set with very good second basemen, which limits most of the suitors to the NL. It's never promising when close to half the league simply doesn't need a player at that position.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Keep dozier at 2nd for a bit, let him focus on hitting 40 dongs a year.

 

I don't think that should be his primary focus...not that there's anything wrong with that. 

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier could DH, and maybe play 3B. 

 

When were Span's concussion issues?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier could DH, and maybe play 3B. 

 

When were Span's concussion issues?

2009, I think? Maybe 2010. He was 1-1.5 years removed from the concussion at the time of the trade, IIRC.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2009, I think? Maybe 2010. He was 1-1.5 years removed from the concussion at the time of the trade, IIRC.

2011, actually.  His absence almost certainly led to a bit of slump upon his return that year, but I generally think his performance wasn't affected too much.  His offensive game first tailed off in 2010.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Though I worry about Dozier's position a bit. Most contending AL teams are set with very good second basemen, which limits most of the suitors to the NL. It's never promising when close to half the league simply doesn't need a player at that position.

Yeah, I'd give the edge to Dozier over Span too, but it pretty much comes down to the market.  Hopefully a new front office will give us some confidence that they are being aggressive looking for opportunities -- it feels like that's how most of the best deals happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

2011, actually.  His absence almost certainly led to a bit of slump upon his return that year, but I generally think his performance wasn't affected too much.  His offensive game first tailed off in 2010.

I knew I should have looked it up.

[DaveW]

Dozier >>>> span

 

It ain't even close imo

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dozier >>>> span

 

It ain't even close imo

I agree but I think the third year of Span keeps it relatively close. It was an option year to boot so the risk was almost nil.

[DaveW]

I agree but I think the third year of Span keeps it relatively close. It was an option year to boot so the risk was almost nil.

Nah it ain't close man. Dozier is a 40 HR guy playing 2B, span was a nice, but just an above average overall CF.

 

Dozier has mvp upside, span never did.

 

Like I have said multiple times in this thread, if you aren't getting a potential top 15-18 pitcher in the majors overall there is no point in talking trade now.