The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not really interested in any more middle of the rotation guys, if we can get a Johnny Cueto or better type, by all means trade dozier for them.

Anyone else? No thanks, let's hold onto our infielder with 40+ HR power.

 

if only Cueto had been a FA.....

[gunnarthor]

 

if only Cueto had been a FA.....

The Twins were never (and should never) spend 150m on the age 30-36 seasons for a pitcher like Cueto.  Just like they were right to not spend 86m on Anibal Sanchez who, as expected, turned into a pumpkin.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins were never (and should never) spend 150m on the age 30-36 seasons for a pitcher like Cueto.  Just like they were right to not spend 86m on Anibal Sanchez who, as expected, turned into a pumpkin.  

 

That seems to be the line every year.....they should never spend big money on a FA. If so, then trading Dozier is about the only way to get a great pitching prospect or two, other than the draft.

[gunnarthor]

 

That seems to be the line every year.....they should never spend big money on a FA. If so, then trading Dozier is about the only way to get a great pitching prospect or two, other than the draft.

* never spend big money on a FA pitcher.  FA hitters are a bit safer but not much.  And keep in mind, both Nolasco and Santana were the #4 FA pitcher in their FA class and both were top 10 overall dollar FA signings in those years.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

* never spend big money on a FA pitcher.  FA hitters are a bit safer but not much.  And keep in mind, both Nolasco and Santana were the #4 FA pitcher in their FA class and both were top 10 overall dollar FA signings in those years.  

 

i think we agree on this.....if they want pitching, they'll need to hope an pray, or trade Dozier.*

 

*or, as some have suggested, and I really disagree with, trade prospects...that, imo, needs to wait until they are contenders. 

[Don Walcott]

According to mlbtraderumors, the 2016-17 offseason for free agent pitchers is "historically bleak." We missed our chance last offseason to sign an ace. Now we have no choice but to try to trade one of our best players to get a top starter, and even then it's not likely. It's even less likely teams will trade top starters when there are absolutely none available in free agency.

 

I still think we blew it last offseason by being typically unambitious. I doubt we can significantly improve our pitching until 2018. So we're going to have to hope that the guys we already have, improve a lot, and maybe someone like May emerges as a starter.

 

I think Dozier will have to be satisfied playing through at least one more rebuilding season with this team.

[DaveW]

I would look at an extension for Dozier this off-season as well. You don't "luck" into this type of power, Dozier had almost zero power coming through the minors and has been steadily improving on his HR numbers each of the last 4 seasons, he is only 29, so the power should last another 4 years before it starts to decline slowly.

I would work on extending him for an extra 2-3 years, the Twins have some leverage as well since he will be underpaid the next two years, so you could get him on a team friendly deal.

 

Dozier already has 6.1 WAR (bref) he could end up a 7 WAR player, that's insane! The last two players the Twins had with 6+ WAR in a season was Joe Mauer 2009, and Johan Santana  a few times.

 

These are the type of guys you build around, not trade!

 

As mentioned: Dozier, Kepler, Sano and Berrios are the core moving fwd at this stage IMO.

[DaveW]

 

* never spend big money on a FA pitcher.  FA hitters are a bit safer but not much.  And keep in mind, both Nolasco and Santana were the #4 FA pitcher in their FA class and both were top 10 overall dollar FA signings in those years.  

I was calling for them to sign Cueto.....would have worked out quite well, no?

[DaveW]

 

 

if only Cueto had been a FA.....

Exactly, I really wanted the Twins to bring him in not only as a FA this year, but trade for him LAST year when they were in the playoff hunt. Or Hamels...both of those would have worked out quite well.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would look at an extension for Dozier this off-season as well. You don't "luck" into this type of power, Dozier had almost zero power coming through the minors and has been steadily improving on his HR numbers each of the last 4 seasons, he is only 29, so the power should last another 4 years before it starts to decline slowly.

I would work on extending him for an extra 2-3 years, the Twins have some leverage as well since he will be underpaid the next two years, so you could get him on a team friendly deal.

 

Dozier already has 6.1 WAR (bref) he could end up a 7 WAR player, that's insane! The last two players the Twins had with 6+ WAR in a season was Joe Mauer 2009, and Johan Santana  a few times.

 

These are the type of guys you build around, not trade!

 

As mentioned: Dozier, Kepler, Sano and Berrios are the core moving fwd at this stage IMO.

 

I could get behind this, if there was any chance the SP was good next year......but it is hard to see that from here.

 

How do they go from the worst SP they've ever had, to even decent? Realistically, not thru hope, but thru realism?

[DaveW]

 

I could get behind this, if there was any chance the SP was good next year......but it is hard to see that from here.

 

How do they go from the worst SP they've ever had, to even decent? Realistically, not thru hope, but thru realism?

Put May back in the rotation, buy low on a guy like Miller. Trade Rosario+ more for another good arm. Berrios should come around.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly, I really wanted the Twins to bring him in not only as a FA this year, but trade for him LAST year when they were in the playoff hunt. Or Hamels...both of those would have worked out quite well.

 

I too wanted them to trade for him. Alas, it was not to be.

 

I may have signed him this off season, but I'm not sure I would have. I know that hte last 2 years of any FA SP contract is likely to be bad, very bad. I do think, however, that by then they would have money to burn. But, again, it was not to be.

 

Now? Now there are no FA SP at all. And, they are about to give up 900 runs......their starters have a 5.6 ERA. 5.6.........

[DaveW]

 

I too wanted them to trade for him. Alas, it was not to be.

 

I may have signed him this off season, but I'm not sure I would have. I know that hte last 2 years of any FA SP contract is likely to be bad, very bad. I do think, however, that by then they would have money to burn. But, again, it was not to be.

 

Now? Now there are no FA SP at all. And, they are about to give up 900 runs......their starters have a 5.6 ERA. 5.6.........

Give me 3-4 good years and 1-2 bad years over whatever the hell Pelfrey and Nolasco gave us.

[Squirrel]

Let's stick to topic here ... Dozier, trade or not trade, future ... not what the Twins should have done at my suggestion and didn't and look where they could be now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let's stick to topic here ... Dozier, trade or not trade, future ... not what the Twins should have done at my suggestion and didn't and look where they could be now.

 

Isn't the topic.....should they trade Dozier for a (or more) SP? Isn't a discussion of the reality of them signing a FA SP part of the reason you would trade him? It is for me...

[Squirrel]

 

Isn't the topic.....should they trade Dozier for a (or more) SP? Isn't a discussion of the reality of them signing a FA SP part of the reason you would trade him? It is for me...

Yes ... but why go back and drag up an old discussion of 'Why didn't we trade for Cueto?' and then start making that the focus instead of the peripheral. We are talking about the now, not the then. And I think I made that clear this is about DOZIER and to trade or not to trade him. 

[jimmer]

 

Isn't the topic.....should they trade Dozier for a (or more) SP? Isn't a discussion of the reality of them signing a FA SP part of the reason you would trade him? It is for me...

 

I sometimes get lost on how we are going to get top quality pitching. 

 

We can't seem to develop it.  We won't trade prospects from our supposedly rich farm system for proven quality pitchers, and we won't spend what it takes to sign to quality pitchers.

 

And, for some, we also can't trade our best trade chips for them either

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes ... but why go back and drag up an old discussion of 'Why didn't we trade for Cueto?' and then start making that the focus instead of the peripheral. We are talking about the now, not the then. And I think I made that clear this is about DOZIER and to trade or not to trade him. 

 

Got it, makes sense.

 

As said below.....for some, it seems like HOPE is the strategy. I'm not comfy with hope as a strategy....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As said below.....for some, it seems like HOPE is the strategy. I'm not comfy with hope as a strategy....

To be fair, "hope" is one of the few things left to us right now.

 

And, in this case, "hope" is a new, progressive front office coming to Minnesota in a month. Anything done or said now is mostly irrelevant because it's likely an entirely new person (people?) will be running the show come October.

 

And we have absolutely no idea what they plan to do with this team.

[Squirrel]

 

Got it, makes sense.

 

As said below.....for some, it seems like HOPE is the strategy. I'm not comfy with hope as a strategy....

I know ... but based on jimmer's post above ... what else is there? For some of us, like me, I cling to that because I'd rather think about that than the other. And I know I'm putting too many, if not all, my eggs in the basket of 'Maybe with a new regime change...' but that is a complete unknown, one way or the other.

 

In the end ... it's just a game. That's all it's ever been for me. Sometimes fun, sometimes not.

 

But back to Dozier ... if they trade him, all I have to say is they better get GREAT! for him or who knows what I'll do. If they don't get GREAT! they need to find a way to put better pieces (i.e. pitching) around him, and not sure how they'll do that if we continue to 'wait' for pitching to come through the pipe and don't make a trade using something good we have.

 

Edit: And Brock kinda ninja'd me with his post above.

[Mike Sixel]

If they don't get great player(s) back, they better keep him....agreed.

[Blackjack]

 

Lol Polanco will never sniff the numbers dozier put up this year

I don't think anybody is saying Polanco = Dozier but with Polanco around Dozier is expendable. 

 

Good teams trade from their surplus to fill other holes. Right now the Twins have a surplus of second basemen.

[tobi0040]

 

I sometimes get lost on how we are going to get top quality pitching. 

 

We can't seem to develop it.  We won't trade prospects from our supposedly rich farm system for proven quality pitchers, and we won't spend what it takes to sign to quality pitchers.

 

And, for some, we also can't trade our best trade chips for them either

 

Nothing gets me more frustrated than this.  I will add that most argue we absolutely have to take the best player available in the draft.

 

The Twins are on pace to give up a franchise record 900 runs. More than during the steriod era.  More than the rotations of Correia, Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez, Walters, and Nick Blackburn.  Yesterday was a micro-cosm of why we need to trade Brian Dozier.  He hit three home runs. We scored a total of five runs and lost the game by 6. 

 

We just can't play this game of Berrios will figure it out.  Gonsalves will be up next year and won't struggle.  May will transition successfully to the pen (not to mention if they Twins will do that).  Hughes will come back from injury.  Ervin will be as good next year as he has been this year.    We need to add a few talented pitchers and then hope half of those things happen. 

 

Here is what I would do.  I would try and trade Suzuki and Kintzler now for a flier in A ball.  Some guy that throws hard but has things to figure out.

 

I would move Dozier for the best pitching prospect and throw in I could find.  The best case would be the headliner is in AA or AAA.  After seeing what guys like Mannea and Dansby Swanson were traded for, two years of Dozier will fetch more than some think he would, IMO.

 

I would also look to trade non pitching prospects for pitching prospects.  If it involves moving Rosario or even Kepler we have to think about it. 

[gocgo]

Trading Dozier for "prospects" would be stupid.  If they are trading a 2nd baseman who hits 40 dingers, they need to get back a stud pitcher who is MLB ready.

[DaveW]

Dozier is going to be a 6+ WAR player this year (already is)

So if you are  going to trade him for a pitcher you need a guy who you will have for at least 3 years, and you can count on at least 4.5 WAR out of each year.

 

Let's look at some teams in win now (2017) mode who could use Dozier:

 

Yankees: Tanaka is their only worthwhile pitcher and he can opt out after next year. I would be interested in Sanchez, but he is doing NOWHERE.

 

Mets: DeGrom or Noah would be awesome. But that ain't happening.

 

Giants: Doubt they trade Cueto.

 

etc

 

[tobi0040]

 

And we have absolutely no idea what they plan to do with this team.

 

Well I think we have a pretty good idea the new staff will conclude we need better starting pitching.  Heck, if they don't conclude that we hired the wrong folks.

 

We don't exactly know what the plan will be to acquire them I suppose.  It seems the only viable option to me is via trade or sell the fans on a 1-3 year rebuild.  Given that is what we supposedly have been doing the last six years, it might go over about as well as a fart in an elevator.

[DaveW]

 

 

I don't think anybody is saying Polanco = Dozier but with Polanco around Dozier is expendable. 

 

Good teams trade from their surplus to fill other holes. Right now the Twins have a surplus of second basemen.

I'm sorry, this line of thinking is just absurd. Dozier is a 6+ WAR player, those type of guys are not expendable. That's like saying Buxton is expendable because Rosario can play CF or something.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good teams trade from their surplus to fill other holes. Right now the Twins have a surplus of second basemen.

Do they really? It's possible the new regime views Polanco as a capable shortstop.

 

There's room for everyone to play if the front office decides to go that route.

 

There's also room to move a guy or two if they feel that's the best course of action.

[tobi0040]

I guess my question for the keep Dozier camp would be, what is your roadmap for building a competent rotation?

 

I know we have prospects that we are high on. But we have so many of these guys that we have counted on in the past. We can't possibly hope to move from here to a good rotation on that alone. I am all ears to see the roadmap. Maybe some would rather trade Buxton or Sano. I just want to see a plan.

[Blackjack]

 

I'm sorry, this line of thinking is just absurd. Dozier is a 6+ WAR player, those type of guys are not expendable. That's like saying Buxton is expendable because Rosario can play CF or something.

As streaky as Dozier is, what are the odds that he continues to be a 6+ WAR player?? Cash in while he's hot!!!! By next June he might be back to hitting .199 again. The Twins need pitching and he's your best trade chip!!! What good is it to have a guy hit three home runs and lose by 6????!!!!