The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[jimmer]

 

Right, because the Twins are amazing at drafting and developing.

just trying to remember when they traded any quality prospects for proven quality MLB players

[stringer bell]

OK, I've made it clear I'm skeptical of defensive metrics, but I'll cite a couple here. According to Baseball Reference, this season Dozier is -3 in Total Zone Fielding Runs above average, but is +3 in Defensive Runs Saved. I understand this to be two different metrics and the net result would be he's an average fielder. IMHO, that is about right. I admit I could be wrong about what the metrics say, but this agrees with my eyeball assessment of the Twins best player.

 

I'm also not a big believer in WAR, but Dozier is at 5.3 at last check. That isn't a "good player", that is much better than that.

[TheLeviathan]

After what he did from July last year to May of this year, I'll never fully trust Dozier.  I'll always be waiting for him to go pumpkin on us again.

 

Deal him if you get good value.  It's the smart thing to do for this club, given this player's track record and age, and given the team's current state.

[DocBauer]

I'd like to just a different idea out there, if I may.

 

First, again, I'm not saying don't look for a deal for Dozier and see if you can find a great fit and get a bug return, i.e. a #2 SP or a top, top prospect ready to go and maybe another quality prospect as well. But I lean toward keeping him at this point: his power and overall production, though streaky at times, is awfully good. And he provides a veteran bat in an increasingly young lineup.

 

When his current contract is up, he'll only be 32 for the 2019 season. Hardly a gray beard, and playing a position that doesn't usually see as sudden a decline as say catcher, CF or SS. Further, he could not only be resigned at some point potentially, but also possibly move to 3B (short on the arm but good athlete and less range required) or possibly 1B to replace Mauer.

 

If the new GM decides not to keep Santiago and to not sign Plouffe, by my figuring, the Twins will cut over 36M from their payroll this season. Now, there will be raises, of course. And I believe the team should invest in a real 4th OF who can start if needed, possibly a back end RP on a 1 year deal, a couple low cost LHRP auditions, etc. But they will definitely be cutting costs. If I'm not mistaken, Perkins is off the books after next season? That's another 6M+. Santana, and Mauer if memory serves, would be signed for 2018 and then done.

 

What if this new FO is more aggressive overall, and uses this money on a top FA SP NEXT off season when the market should be better, and we keep Dozier, and his offense, and continue to work with and move up the young rotation candidates?

 

Thoughts?

[jorgenswest]

They don't need to trade Dozier this winter. It is reasonable to expect performance similar to the last three years. His trade value will remain strong as long as the Twins don't extend his contract.

[TheLeviathan]

 

They don't need to trade Dozier this winter. It is reasonable to expect performance similar to the last three years. His trade value will remain strong as long as the Twins don't extend his contract.

 

Except that may not be true.  Had we tried to deal him last offseason, people would have seen a half season of much less prolific play and likely have altered his value.

 

Obviously, none of us can know for sure, but it's also not impossible (may even be probable) we see another swoon that likewise jeopardizes his value.

[DocBauer]

While I agree his swoon was regrettable in many ways...and could happen again of course...I am of the opinion he has, possibly still is, matured as a hitter. He seems to have made some very real adjustments this season. While he still pulls for power, and most guys with power do pull quite a bit, he seems to have stopped looking to do so constantly, and has really adapted to going the other way when the opportunity presents itself.

[Brandon Warne]

 

If we move Dozier and Plouffe we may clear as much as 25 million this year. We can probably buy a pitcher in free agency and a decent catcher, plus have some good prospects. That seems like a good path forward to me.

 

true, but you need a pitcher like that to even reach FA. nothing of that caliber this year

[Brandon Warne]

 

They don't need to trade Dozier this winter. It is reasonable to expect performance similar to the last three years. His trade value will remain strong as long as the Twins don't extend his contract.

 

that's only half the equation. there's no guarantee he'll perform the same -- he'll be 30 next year -- and you have a ready-made replacement, and a need at other positions. 

 

i felt like that was laid out a little in the article, but!

[Everyday Eddy]

Absolute no brainer to trade Dozier now.   He's a legitimate star and will bring back a nice haul.   We can have Dozier and continue to be bad or we can use Dozier to jumpstart the next era of good Twins baseball.   We do not need a star 2nd baseman when we are 3 to 4 starting pitchers and multiple position players away from competence. We are looking at another rebuild of at least 3 years before we are contenders.   I am confident a good GM will acknowledge this 

[stringer bell]

Just for a little perspective, I checked espn's baseball site after today's game. Their end of the year projection for Dozier is 40 HR, 101 RBI and 103 Runs. How many Twins have ever had that kind of season? Since the only one to hit 40 homers is Harmon, he has to be the only one. Dozier is having a monster season and even if he doesn't get to those round numbers, fans should realize what kind of hitter he has been this season.

 

I checked. Harmon did it twice-'67 and '69 (MVP year)

[Kwak]

 

Just for a little perspective, I checked espn's baseball site after today's game. Their end of the year projection for Dozier is 40 HR, 101 RBI and 103 Runs. How many Twins have ever had that kind of season? Since the only one to hit 40 homers is Harmon, he has to be the only one. Dozier is having a monster season and even if he doesn't get to those round numbers, fans should realize what kind of hitter he has been this season.

 

I checked. Harmon did it twice-'67 and '69 (MVP year)

...and the Twins are hopelessly out of contention. They need so much help in pitching. They do have others (than Dozier) to still provide hitting and scoring to make things somewhat interesting, but that past two weeks have clearly demonstrated that leads aren't safe. 

[Mr. Brooks]

The way he's hitting this year, I'd ask for quite a haul for him.

[tobi0040]

The way he's hitting this year, I'd ask for quite a haul for him.

And we would get one. Just a general thought here.

 

We tend to think our players won't return anything in free agency but other teams will get a lot for their guys. If Dozier was on another team I gaurantee the chatter here about what it would take would start with Berrios or Buxton pre struggles.

[kab21]

Reality check - few teams would trade Dozier right now unless the haul was massive.

 

He is a streaky player and I would love to receive a massive haul for him. The problem is that one poster pointed out that 2B isn't particularly a position of need. At a minimum I would be looking at the equivalent of an Alex Meyer type (front line starter) and then some. If this deal is out there then let's make it.

 

Otherwise you keep him and consider a trade at the next year's deadline or offseason.

[Major League Ready]

 

Trading a prospect or two for starting pitching is a possibility too.

I understand this is a possibility.   I was looking for specifics.  In other words, what kind of prospect package would it take to get a front of the rotation starter in his prime? 

We should also keep in mind that Shelby Miller was not the first SP to regress after a trade.  There we several people that suggested it would have been worth trading a prospect to get Shields.  He is now one of the worst SPs in the league and we would be stuck with him and the $44M remaining on his contract for the next 2 seasons. 

 

An ace that is not at that age where they could decline soon is going to cost a king’s ransom.  It’s easy to say go trade a couple prospects but what is the reality.  I would think it would take of our best young ML ready players plus a couple decent prospects or a bunch (4-5) good prospects.

 

This is the type of trade made by a contender.  I can’t come up with an example of a rebuilding team that has made this type of trade with the exception of Arizona last year.  Of course, Miller was not an ace and they are a real good example of why rebuilding teams don’t make these trades.

 

[tobi0040]

Reality check - few teams would trade Dozier right now unless the haul was massive.

 

He is a streaky player and I would love to receive a massive haul for him. The problem is that one poster pointed out that 2B isn't particularly a position of need. At a minimum I would be looking at the equivalent of an Alex Meyer type (front line starter) and then some. If this deal is out there then let's make it.

 

Otherwise you keep him and consider a trade at the next year's deadline or offseason.

Span had concussion question marks and was not coming off a 900 OPS, six WAR season. I would expect a better return. Maybe a guy like Meyer and 2 more prospects

 

Others have pointed out the lack top starters in free agency. That is fair, but you can also take on salary via trade as well. Or a straight prospect for veteran trade

[Willihammer]

 

I understand this is a possibility.   I was looking for specifics.  In other words, what kind of prospect package would it take to get a front of the rotation starter in his prime? 

We should also keep in mind that Shelby Miller was not the first SP to regress after a trade.  There we several people that suggested it would have been worth trading a prospect to get Shields.  He is now one of the worst SPs in the league and we would be stuck with him and the $44M remaining on his contract for the next 2 seasons. 

 

An ace that is not at that age where they could decline soon is going to cost a king’s ransom.  It’s easy to say go trade a couple prospects but what is the reality.  I would think it would take of our best young ML ready players plus a couple decent prospects or a bunch (4-5) good prospects.

 

This is the type of trade made by a contender.  I can’t come up with an example of a rebuilding team that has made this type of trade with the exception of Arizona last year.  Of course, Miller was not an ace and they are a real good example of why rebuilding teams don’t make these trades.

KC was a 72 win team when they traded for Shields and Davis. But you are right these trades aren't done very often. Not often enough IMO. From my view, it seems like teams are too attached to prospects whose speculative value is only limited by the imagination of the scout.

 

How many top 100 prospects in the Twins system alone have we seen dwindle to zero or near-zero value? As I see it its up to the Twins to make hard decisions about who are going to be the next flops and deal them now for above average starting pitchers. They already have too many prospects to find playing time for. The other thing about using the MLB for tryouts- you do a lot of losing while you "figure out what you have." The Twins should have a better idea of how their talents will play at the MLB level before they arrive there. They know their farm players better than any other team, they should have the information edge on who is a player and who is fools gold.

 

As for a specific trade, today, I'd look at the White Sox. Chris Sale or maybe a better bargain- Jose Quintana. What would it take to get him? That would be for the Twins to decide.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think this trade is a no brainer personally.  Not quite as sold on Erv being a no-brainer... but yeah, there are teams with needs at 2B that plan on contending.  Whether those teams are a good match, who knows.

 

Neil Walker could influence things but I'd say the Dodgers and Mets would be the teams that could give us a pitcher or two. 

 

Neil Walker is the only 2B of decent value in the FA Class. Unless you consider signing Desmond and moving him back to the IF as a 2B. 

 

Teams that may feel like a contender and could be significantly boosted by Dozier. 

 

D-Backs --  They swung and missed... They have to swing again next year. They got some arms that are worth a shot. 

 

Cubs -- They can make room for anyone. 

 

Dodgers -- This is a team that will need Dozier. Sign Walker, roll with Kendrick or trade for Dozer. I think they will want to send us Puig in any deal. 

 

Mets -- See Dodgers... Sign Walker or trade for a 2B. Dozier would have to be at the top of the list. 

 

Cards -- A long shot but I wouldn't rule it out... They are creative...if they think a player can help them. 

 

Blue Jays -- Maybe... Dozier could help cover potential FA losses this year. They might throw a decent pitcher our way.  Maybe. 

 

Teams that may feel like a contender and don't really need Dozier considering what it would take to acquire him. 

 

Orioles -- If they move Machado to SS and Schoop or Dozier to 3B. That offense gets even scarier. I doubt they have the arms to give up.

 

Red Sox -- No need whatsoever. 

 

Indians -- They could shift some players around and Dozier could be a great addition but they don't have the budget or mindset to do that. 

 

Tigers - Don't have anything to offer us. I don't think they give up Fulmer. 

 

Astros - No need whatsoever

 

Royals - He'd be a great fit in Kansas City but would KC Give us pitching back... it doesn't seem likely. 

 

Yankees -- They won't give up youth or pitching right now. 

 

Pirates -- They never give up youth or pitching. 

 

Mariners - No Need Whatsoever

 

Giants - They could make Dozier work and improve their lineup. Do they have the pieces to make it worth it. I don't think so.... They'll keep Bumgarner. 

 

Rangers - No Need Whatsoever

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Just because teams don't appear to "need" a 2B at this stage of the season doesn't mean there won't be interest later.  Lots of things can change and teams can determine they need a power hitter and target Dozier and figure the rest out later.  

 

All any of us can say is to do the right thing: shop the ever loving hell out of him and see what's out there.  Keeping him, or telling teams he is off limits, or anything remotely like that should be an immediately fire-able offense even if we just hired the guy.

[Riverbrian]

 

Just because teams don't appear to "need" a 2B at this stage of the season doesn't mean there won't be interest later.  Lots of things can change and teams can determine they need a power hitter and target Dozier and figure the rest out later.  

 

All any of us can say is to do the right thing: shop the ever loving hell out of him and see what's out there.  Keeping him, or telling teams he is off limits, or anything remotely like that should be an immediately fire-able offense even if we just hired the guy.

 

True

 

Things change... 3 team trades... Anything can happen. 

[Shane Wahl]

There is no way I would trade Dozier. 

 

Buxton, CF

Mauer, 1B

Dozier, 2B

Kepler, RF

Sano, 3B

Vargas, DH

Rosario, LF

Polanco, SS

Garver/Murphy C

 

is so easily attainable in 2017. Shift Kepler, Sano, and Vargas as you see fit, especially with regard to lefties. 

 

Backup catcher, Escobar, Park, and Palka/Walker on the bench. Imagine starting 2017 with this lineup.

 

[TheLeviathan]

And we lose 8-7 for the next few years until Dozier is 32 and not retained anyway in your scenario Shane.

 

Sell high if it's out there.  It's, by far, the smartest course of action.

[Reider]

Some fans have wanted Dozier to be traded away for a while now. I've generally been against it. Over the last few years, Dozier has been pretty good defensively and offensively. He's the kind of person and player you want on your team. Generally, I think the idea is to create a team full of good/great players, which hopefully translates into a lot of wins. I've never been a fan of trading away or getting rid of a player once that player becomes an established MLB player or an All-Star etc..

 

However, with the Twins being the worst team in the league, I'm not totally against trading Dozier away, but the return would have to be worthwhile and the trade would have to make sense for the rebuild process. It's very important for the Twins to hire a president and GM, which are capable of building a championship caliber team. If and / or once those people are hired, and they evaluate the team, if they feel that the rebuild will take a certain amount of time, offers for Dozier are great, and it will be very beneficial to the rebuild process, then sure, go ahead and consider all offers for Dozier. But until then, I would keep Dozier and focus on hiring quality employees in the front office.

[Steve Penz]

Since June 1

 

305/370/655

This. Look at his numbers from July of last year up until this time. Take 100 points off each of those numbers. We need to trade him because we need pitching and because he is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

[old nurse]

 

Right, because the Twins are amazing at drafting and developing.

That is only the drafted players, not the international players. So, why does a study ignore 25% of the players?

[old nurse]

 

There is no way I would trade Dozier. 

 

Buxton, CF

Mauer, 1B

Dozier, 2B

Kepler, RF

Sano, 3B

Vargas, DH

Rosario, LF

Polanco, SS

Garver/Murphy C

 

is so easily attainable in 2017. Shift Kepler, Sano, and Vargas as you see fit, especially with regard to lefties. 

 

Backup catcher, Escobar, Park, and Palka/Walker on the bench. Imagine starting 2017 with this lineup.

Great team offense, minimal team defense. Minimal team defense leads to an ERA  much greater than FIP, xFIP, or any other metric.

[Platoon]

Definitely two camps here. Dozier is so valuable to the Twins we can't let him go. And Dozier plays a low value position, and has little value to other teams, ergo no trade value. But to me, one has to look at what this team needs and how to get it. It needs a good solid SP, someone above Santana's level. I don't expect an Ace, but someone who gives you a legitimate chance to win, against any team, every time he walks out there. I exclude the Sanos, Buxtons, Kepler, from this as I would not trade those young players. Of the veterans there really is only one choice. Mauer can't be traded, the Plouffe train has left the station, and there aren't any others. While that sad fact is another thread, that leaves Dozier. There is only one thing this team has an excess off. Sticks! There is no SP, no defense except Buxton, and no RP. If you can trade Dozier in some way shape or form, for a good SP, next years team will be markedly better than if you don't. Yesterday's Sox debacle should have made that perfectly clear. You cannot win on offense in MLB. Edit: there's other moves to make, but if we don't improve the SP, none will matter.

[USAFChief]

This. Look at his numbers from July of last year up until this time. Take 100 points off each of those numbers. We need to trade him because we need pitching and because he is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

Per BRef, Brian Dozier, last 365 days: .264/.336/.519 OPS .855

 

He's been the Twins best player over that time frame.

 

All players go through ups and downs. Perhaps Dozier has more extreme streaks than most, but what matters most is what it all ends up looking like. Dozier ends up looking like an AS.

[Craig Arko]

Definitely two camps here. Dozier is so valuable to the Twins we can't let him go. And Dozier plays a low value position, and has little value to other teams, ergo no trade value. But to me, one has to look at what this team needs and how to get it. It needs a good solid SP, someone above Santana's level. I don't expect an Ace, but someone who gives you a legitimate chance to win, against any team, every time he walks out there. I exclude the Sanos, Buxtons, Kepler, from this as I would not trade those young players. Of the veterans there really is only one choice. Mauer can't be traded, the Plouffe train has left the station, and there aren't any others. While that sad fact is another thread, that leaves Dozier. There is only one thing this team has an excess off. Sticks! There is no SP, no defense except Buxton, and no RP. If you can trade Dozier in some way shape or form, for a good SP, next years team will be markedly better than if you don't. Yesterday's Sox debacle should have made that perfectly clear. You cannot win on offense in MLB. Edit: there's other moves to make, but if we don't improve the SP, none will matter.

This is sound reasoning in my book.