The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?

[stringer bell]

 

Per BRef, Brian Dozier, last 365 days: .264/.336/.519 OPS .855

He's been the Twins best player over that time frame.

All players go through ups and downs. Perhaps Dozier has more extreme streaks than most, but what matters most is what it all ends up looking like. Dozier ends up looking like an AS.

I wholeheartedly agree Chief. I wrote a blog on Dozier, for those who can't get enough about the Twins #2.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't trade dozier unless they were able to get a legit ace back in the trade, since that is highly unlikely id rather they hold onto Dozier.

 

Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios appear to be the start to a very nice core moving forward.

 

Everyone else is a 110% expendable though.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Dozier had 13 home runs in August. That's good. Twins went 11-22 in August. That's bad.

 

Home runs are a heck of a lot of fun, but we're going to have to make some sacrifices.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Dozier had 13 home runs in August. That's good. Twins went 11-22 in August. That's bad.

Home runs are a heck of a lot of fun, but we're going to have to make some sacrifices.

 

By sacrifices I assume you mean "outs"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This. Look at his numbers from July of last year up until this time. Take 100 points off each of those numbers. We need to trade him because we need pitching and because he is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

Brian Dozier is a middle infielder with a career OPS of .762.

 

He hasn't been a pumpkin since April of 2013.

 

Yeah, he's prone to slumps and it's likely his value is at its peak right now but there's no indication he will turn into a bad player any time soon.

[twinssporto]

I think this whole debate about Dozier really depends on how quickly you want to start winning.  The Twins have him wrapped up for two years at a great price.  If you want to start winning next year and think you can make a playoff run then keep him.  If you want to continue to "rebuild"  then trade him this offseason.

 

Whatever happens hopefully the Twins don't offer him some crazy extension or resign him after two years.   There are other guys behind him that can fill the gap when he leaves.

[Champuckett]

Another 2 home runs today.

 

Trade immediately?

[Twodogs]

_{No way would I trade Dozier, I mean all of the other teams are going to be circling the twins like Sharks off the coast of South Africa.  Bottom line is that the Twins right now have no tradeable pieces.  They need a legit Ace, one that I can think of that a team might part with would be Sale in Chicago due to issues with the team this year, other than that, nothing.  The Twins will get nothing for guys like Plouffe, Suzuki, and probably not much for Dozier either, due to the fact that they are known quantities.  Even Joe Mauer, yeah I know he will not allow himself to be traded, be even as much as he has done for the Twins over the past 15 years, he is no different of a player than James Loney, worthless on the trade market.  If the Twins want a legit Ace in a trade then they will have to trade someone before they are a known quantity, a couple of their highly prized AA players, as long as they have tons of upside, teams will take a chance on them.  I'd say keep Dozier and Santana as they wont get anything for them and trade a couple of their highly touted farm kids, the guys on the roster are for the most part very young; Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, even Dozier has a few really good years left, so the more great up and comers we have the more they get blocked, and the more the guys up at the bigs suffer from inconsistent PT, etc....  They need to use some of those highly touted prospects for one stud pitcher.  Then Santana becomes a #2, and Santiago, Gibson, May, Berrios, Duffy fight it out for the final 3 spots  I just feel that the Twins over the last couple of years have been over loaded with potential and not much production.  Dozier has been productive.  You don't trade him for a ? in production.}

[gunnarthor]

 

Great team offense, minimal team defense. Minimal team defense leads to an ERA  much greater than FIP, xFIP, or any other metric.

Where are the Twins bad on defense?  Looking at fangraphs, the Twins expected starters all seem to grade fairly well defensively.  The biggest offenders by DRS are Grossman LF, Sano RF, Santana CF, Escobar SS, Plouffe 3B, Nunez 3B, Nunez SS, Sano 3B.  Only Sano is expected to start next year.  By UZR it's mostly the same group except it likes Sano better and Kepler worse.

 

So it looks like an OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler would be good defensively and an infield of Sano/Polanco/Dozier/Mauer would be solid although not above avg.

 

[Shaitan]

 

There is no way I would trade Dozier. 

 

Buxton, CF

Mauer, 1B

Dozier, 2B

Kepler, RF

Sano, 3B

Vargas, DH

Rosario, LF

Polanco, SS

Garver/Murphy C

 

is so easily attainable in 2017. Shift Kepler, Sano, and Vargas as you see fit, especially with regard to lefties. 

 

Backup catcher, Escobar, Park, and Palka/Walker on the bench. Imagine starting 2017 with this lineup.

 

I like this and I think the only reason to tinker is if there's a significant up the middle upgrade in defense from 2016 to 2017 available.

 

Buxton in CF all year would do that and presumably a new C. Polanco can't be worse than Nunez, though I doubt he's much better. Is Polanco at 2B anything more than a slight upgrade over Dozier defensively? If so, keep Dozier, keep Polanco at SS and listen carefully if an offer comes along for a #1-2 starter and a top defensive SS.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dozier has a legit chance at a 6 WAR season.

 

Madness.

[Platoon]

I have several humble thoughts. A post above said no way they would trade Dozier. Later the post said, you won't get anything for him? I find those two thoughts at odds. Another post has Dozier hitting 3, some call for him as a 4 stick. He is not going to get pitched the same in those slots with men on base. Today I listened to the first two innings on the radio, we were on the bike. I told my wife after the first home run what I thought of throwing him first pitch fastballs, and if they do, why bother paying for scouting reports. ( she was all ears) . A minute later Danno was discussing the same topic with Corey. If there is a scouting report in MLB that says through him first pitch FB, I would like to see a copy of it. I think it was Gladden who mentioned that some of the pitchers just want to see if they can do it. Ego.

[Champuckett]

Just hit his 3rd homer for the day.

 

 

Trade him, his value is maxed.

[Kwak]

Hmm, Dozier hits 2 HRs (plus another AB) and the Twins still get buried! Pitching is needed. The Twins can replace Dozier with Polanco or any typical singles-hitting/OBP 2B, score some runs and if the pitching problems are addressed still field a decent team. Dozier is not likely to sell so many tickets to justify these double-digit butt-kickings to fans.

 

Edit: 3Hrs I read!

[LaBombo]

In the postgame Dozier sounded like a guy who's had enough losing.

 

Apologetic to the fans, felt awkward about a curtain call in a losing effort, but most of all and very atypical of him, down hard on Berrios, saying how frustrating it was to watch the lead dissolve because Berri couldn't locate his fastball. Another crap fest outing from the clown car bullpen clearly didn't help Dozier's mood either.

 

Whether he would ever hint at wanting (let alone demand) a trade, or how much it would influence a new Twins GM,  I have no idea. But he didn't sound like a guy who just hit 3 homers, who just virtually assured himself of reaching 40 HRs for the season, or who was still wound up over losing a game.

 

Dozier sounded tired of being a Twin.

[gunnarthor]

I still think the new GM won't trade him but I'm starting to rethink my position that there wouldn't be high demand for him.  Still might not get equal value for him but he's probably going to bring back more than I think. 

[LaBombo]

 

Dozier has a legit chance at a 6 WAR season.

Madness.

 

Yup. In fact, since his OPS nearly dipped below .600 on 18 May and didn't permanently clear .700 until 18 June, you could say that a 6 WAR for Dozier isn't just Madness; it's One Step Beyond...

 

http://images.popmatters.com/misc_art/o/onetepbeyond-splsh.jpg

[David HK]

Dozier to 3B if we keep him.  Sano DH'ing, with an occasional spell at 3rd.

 

A big thanks to Trevor and DanSan for their work, and fare thee well.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Dozier to 3B if we keep him.  Sano DH'ing, with an occasional spell at 3rd.

 

A big thanks to Trevor and DanSan for their work, and fare thee well.

Not a bad idea.

[Reider]

Brian Dozier:

 

2013 - .244 (AVG) .312 (OBP) 18 (HR's)

2014 - .242 (AVG) .345 (OBP) 23 (HR's)

2015 - .236 (AVG) .307 (OBP) 28 (HR's) - *** All Star ***

2016 - .279 (AVG) .350 (OBP) 38 (HR's and counting. 39 if not for the game cancelled by rain)

 

Yes, he might be a hot and cold type of player, but by the end of the year his batting average and OBP have been consistently respectable and his HR's have been increasing every single year over the last 4 years. There's no denying that he is a bona fide MLB 2nd baseman.

 

I agree with DaveW. I am open to trading him, but we need an ace pitcher and I probably wouldn't want to trade him unless another team offered something significant in return. I'm not sure what the market is like, but if the market for 2nd baseman is weak, then I"m more than fine with just keeping him.

 

I think it's so important for teams to draft, sign, and develop their own players (pitchers included). Instead of panicking, I think the Twins need to focus on getting the right people in the front office, which will hopefully translate into finding, acquiring, and developing talent.

 

[Steve Penz]

Brian Dozier is a middle infielder with a career OPS of .762.

 

He hasn't been a pumpkin since April of 2013.

 

Yeah, he's prone to slumps and it's likely his value is at its peak right now but there's no indication he will turn into a bad player any time soon.

You may be right and I may be a bit extreme but if he goes silent again like he did from 7/15/15 to 5/30/2016 then his value is going to be way lower. I hope they can trade his value and help get the team on the right track.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You may be right and I may be a bit extreme but if he goes silent again like he did from 7/15/15 to 5/30/2016 then his value is going to be way lower. I hope they can trade his value and help get the team on the right track.

 

Exactly.  He's giving us the ideal opportunity this offseason.

 

We simply don't have the pitching to do anything in the near future unless we trade and Dozier is far and away the best option for that.

[jokin]

 

In the postgame Dozier sounded like a guy who's had enough losing.

 

Apologetic to the fans, felt awkward about a curtain call in a losing effort, but most of all and very atypical of him, down hard on Berrios, saying how frustrating it was to watch the lead dissolve because Berri couldn't locate his fastball. Another crap fest outing from the clown car bullpen clearly didn't help Dozier's mood either.

 

Whether he would ever hint at wanting (let alone demand) a trade, or how much it would influence a new Twins GM,  I have no idea. But he didn't sound like a guy who just hit 3 homers, who just virtually assured himself of reaching 40 HRs for the season, or who was still wound up over losing a game.

 

Dozier sounded tired of being a Twin.

 

Shades of Knoblauch? (Although a much more decent human being).

[Champuckett]

The home runs and the power at a typically non-power position are not what impress me the most.  Considering that just about everything wrong that could have happened this season has gone wrong for the team.  He was no exception for the first 2 months of the season.

 

The typical .235-.245 that Dozier had hit over the last 4 years has remarkably improved for the first time to almost .280, even during this most recent power stretch.  I was content with him hitting his 25ish home runs with his mediocre .240 ba and assumed that was the real Dozier, the one we would watch until he retired or left the team.  Instead the guy has learned how to hit for average and has quickly become one of the leagues best all around hitters in 2016.

 

It's well within reason he can be a 100+ run 100+ RBI 40+ HR and .280ish avg by the time the season has finished.  Elite status.  I realize a majority of people are ready for him to fall back to reality and his old ways.  Maybe that's where he is headed and maybe that's where the chanting for trades comes into play.  Who knows what will happen with him, I just know as a fan of the Twins, it's nice to watch and almost daily see this guy impress.

[Blackjack]

 

Exactly.  He's giving us the ideal opportunity this offseason.

 

We simply don't have the pitching to do anything in the near future unless we trade and Dozier is far and away the best option for that.

The Twins are going to lose 100 games WITH Dozier, how important is he to the Twins?  You have Polanco waiting as a replacement, trade Dozier while his value is high, before he goes into a three month slump -- for pitching.

[Riverbrian]

He could help fix our pitching

 

He is the only one who could help fix our pitching.

 

Dozier is more likely to fix our pitching than Neil Allen. 

 

 

[DaveW]

I'm not really interested in any more middle of the rotation guys, if we can get a Johnny Cueto or better type, by all means trade dozier for them.

 

Anyone else? No thanks, let's hold onto our infielder with 40+ HR power.

[DaveW]

The Twins are going to lose 100 games WITH Dozier, how important is he to the Twins? You have Polanco waiting as a replacement, trade Dozier while his value is high, before he goes into a three month slump -- for pitching.

Lol Polanco will never sniff the numbers dozier put up this year

[jimmer]

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brian-doziers-recent-power-surge-means-his-offseason-trade-value-is-still-soaring/

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not really interested in any more middle of the rotation guys, if we can get a Johnny Cueto or better type, by all means trade dozier for them.

Anyone else? No thanks, let's hold onto our infielder with 40+ HR power.

My target would be an expected #2 guy with ace upside. Anything less than that isn't fair value for Dozier.

 

It would have been nice to get an extra year of control when Dozier signed that extension but that contract is looking pretty damned smart right now. Instead of being owed something around $25m over the next two seasons, Dozier will get $15m. That means pretty much any team can take on that contract if they have prospects to give.