Will Brian Dozier's contract turn into an asset?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was thinking about this the other day when I noticed Dozier had been consistently hitting again and slowly pulling his OPS back into the land of respectability.

 

Dozier is due to be paid $6m next season and $9m in 2018.

 

Now, I'll preface this with the obvious: Terry Ryan probably won't dangle Brian Dozier on the market because it's such an obvious thing to do, particularly if his OPS is back in the .725 (or better) range in mid-July.

 

BUT. With that said, Dozier's contract can turn into a real asset when dealing with another team. Instead of the current Trevor Plouffe situation (making $7.25m this season, god only knows how much next season), Dozier is owed just $15m over the next two seasons. Given an expectation of 2 WAR per season (a somewhat conservative estimate and his pace for this season, as lackluster as it has been), that shakes out to only $3.75-ish million per WAR.

 

A pretty good deal.

 

Now, we all know Ryan didn't sign Dozier to that (mildly) controversial contract with the expectation it would turn into a more lucrative trade situation but if Ryan is honest with himself and admits this team isn't close to contention, Dozier could be flipped into a useful prospect, one with real value.

[jimmer]

 

I was thinking about this the other day when I noticed Dozier had been consistently hitting again and slowly pulling his OPS back into the land of respectability.

 

Dozier is due to be paid $6m next season and $9m in 2018.

 

Now, I'll preface this with the obvious: Terry Ryan probably won't dangle Brian Dozier on the market because it's such an obvious thing to do, particularly if his OPS is back in the .725 (or better) range in mid-July.

 

BUT. With that said, Dozier's contract can turn into a real asset when dealing with another team. Instead of the current Trevor Plouffe situation (making $7.25m this season, god only knows how much next season), Dozier is owed just $15m over the next two seasons. Given an expectation of 2 WAR per season (a somewhat conservative estimate and his pace for this season, as lackluster as it has been), that shakes out to only $3.75-ish million per WAR.

 

A pretty good deal.

 

Now, we all know Ryan didn't sign Dozier to that (mildly) controversial contract with the expectation it would turn into a more lucrative trade situation but if Ryan is honest with himself and admits this team isn't close to contention, Dozier could be flipped into a useful prospect, one with real value.

It would absolutely be the smart thing to do.  Won't happen, won't even be attempted, but it'd be the smart thing to do.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It would absolutely be the smart thing to do.  Won't happen, won't even be attempted, but it'd be the smart thing to do.

Yes. Sigh.

[jorgenswest]

If a teams loses a 3B to injury, their commitment to Plouffe is manageable. They aren't committed next year. For some trade partners, that might be better than a 9 million dollar commitment to Dozier next year.

 

It won't be the contracts that limits the interest in either. It will be lack of confidence in their bats.

[DuluthFan]

 

Instead of the current Trevor Plouffe situation (making $7.25m this season, god only knows how much next season),
 

 

Plouffe will be under his final year of arbitration next year. Twins daily as well as nearly all baseball reporting websites annually project what players will get in arbitration. Twins daily is usually very close as to their predictions, so there is no need to ask god, just ask a TD writer. Heck, there is probably an estimate for next year's number already posted in the archives. If you think another club hasn't done their due diligence, they have probably run the numbers on all possible arbitration eligible players that they are looking to acquire. His next season's salary can't be that much of a mystery.

[DocBauer]

It would absolutely be the smart thing to do.  Won't happen, won't even be attempted, but it'd be the smart thing to do.

I'm going to partially disagree. Maybe my rose-colored glasses...that I thought I lost or smashed to bits, can't remember now...we're actually on top of my head and slipped down to my nose again, but I don't see this as an impossibility.

 

1* I'm not convinced Ryan will be running the show next year. Exiting on his own, or making the appearance of such, this traumatic season and 4 out of 5 poor ones, I really think we may be looking at impending changes. Because...

 

2* Despite knocks against ownership, the Twins brand and reputation is not looking so good these days. Ryan himself, about a month ago, actually made some honest and pointed comments as to ownerships disapproval and his failures, and how it was up to him to try to "convince" ownership he could right things. Except for a reported interview with a pretty sharp 11 yo, which we have to discount don't we, ownership has been, first time I can recall, publicly displeased with what is going on.

 

I like Dozier. He's been one of my favorite players the last few years, and he's also young enough to be part of the rebuild. But then I look at Polanco, who I've been watching as close as Sano and Kepler since their signings, and I just wonder how you CAN'T trade Dozier to make room for him. SS has Escobar and Vargas for the next year or two until Gordon and/or Vielma are ready. And we're OK there.

 

It almost absurd common sense to trade Dozier at this point, or soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Plouffe will be under his final year of arbitration next year. Twins daily as well as nearly all baseball reporting websites annually project what players will get in arbitration. Twins daily is usually very close as to their predictions, so there is no need to ask god, just ask a TD writer. Heck, there is probably an estimate for next year's number already posted in the archives. If you think another club hasn't done their due diligence, they have probably run the numbers on all possible arbitration eligible players that they are looking to acquire. His next season's salary can't be that much of a mystery.

The season isn't over. It's still very much up in the air how much Plouffe will make because this season counts toward that number.

[Kwak]

 

If a teams loses a 3B to injury, their commitment to Plouffe is manageable. They aren't committed next year. For some trade partners, that might be better than a 9 million dollar commitment to Dozier next year.

It won't be the contracts that limits the interest in either. It will be lack of confidence in their bats.

It will be neither--Ryan doesn't believe the Twins are in need of rebuild--neither Plouffe nor Dozier will be offered for trade.

[Winston Smith]

I think this is the problem,....."but if Ryan is honest with himself"....it appears to me that Terry really doesn't understand how bad things are and isn't honest with himself.

 

I just don't see much change, except around the edges, coming from either Terry or the Pohlads. 

[brvama]

Now that you've dangled the carrot, which team might be a potential trading partner for Dozier, given what we know now?   

[Platoon]

It will be neither--Ryan doesn't believe the Twins are in need of rebuild--neither Plouffe nor Dozier will be offered for trade.

I gave this a like, and it wasn't because I liked what it said. . I gave it a like because sadly I think your are totally correct! Ryan is going to come to the conclusion that this season was bad luck and an outlier, and Sally forth into 2017.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope he is dealt, this isn't a guy I want to rely on going forward.  But I bet that contract all but assures he does stick.

 

And then Polanco is the odd-man out and I can only imagine the ways we'll screw that up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The reason he was extended in the first place was (at least in my opinion) b/c of the possibility of the contract being a coveted asset.  The problem as I see it is that the team doesn't know what it has in Polanco.  The other problem is whether or not this team can turn things around in the next year or two, because if they can, the question remains as to whether or not BD should be a part of that. 

 

Escobar hasn't exactly run with his shot at being SS.  He was hot out of the gate, but since his injury, he hasn't been himself.  At some point, I think they need to give Polanco and extended look for no other reason than to see if he can replace Dozier if they were to trade him. 

[mikelink45]

TR likes the vets, he has not put in a system that works with the young guys so trading for prospects is against the grain for him.  

 

Look at the mess in the bullpen.  Boshers, Jepsen...are not going to do any better than Burdi, Chagois, and others in the minors, but they make TR more comfortable.

[ewen21]

Absolutely.  If Dozier plays well, flip him if you can.  Let Polanco fill his shoes at 2nd.  Then you have a nucleus of Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, all about in the same age range.  All under team control for a while. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Escobar hasn't exactly run with his shot at being SS.  He was hot out of the gate, but since his injury, he hasn't been himself.  At some point, I think they need to give Polanco and extended look for no other reason than to see if he can replace Dozier if they were to trade him. 

Escobar is definitely a guy to keep an eye on right now. He might be turning it around a bit, as he has a 1.074 OPS in June (SSS obviously).

[nicksaviking]

Escobar is definitely a guy to keep an eye on right now. He might be turning it around a bit, as he has a 1.074 OPS in June (SSS obviously).

Escobar just isn't getting his patented doubles like he did the first two weeks and the last two years. His hard-hit percentage is down a bit at 24% this year from 29% the last two years, but his line drive percentage is way up this year at 25%. I think he's just had a bit of bad luck in that he's just not hitting the gaps.

[Vanimal46]

Polanco has to be on the MLB club next year as he's out of options. There doesn't appear to be any plan or path for him to get playing time the way this current roster looks.

 

That being said, I agree with Levi, and hope Dozier is traded this season. Feels like he's too flawed at the plate to be counted on for the future. Dozier has made minor adjustments this month to improve his numbers, but he's still a pull-happy hitter who has problems with the outside pitch.

[Riverbrian]

I continue to hope that the Twins front office is as hands off as possible.

 

More damage... more significant damage can still be done. 

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If a teams loses a 3B to injury, their commitment to Plouffe is manageable. They aren't committed next year. For some trade partners, that might be better than a 9 million dollar commitment to Dozier next year.

 

It won't be the contracts that limits the interest in either. It will be lack of confidence in their bats.

yup, cuz Plouffe would be met right now if there were a willingness to trade him and confidence in his bat. I would guess the same w/ Dozier

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll say this, if Dozier heats up a bit, his price tag would be quite a bit higher than Plouffe.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll say this, if Dozier heats up a bit, his price tag would be quite a bit higher than Plouffe.

Much higher. Not only would he be a better player but also one at a fixed cost.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FWIW, Dozier's OPS now sits at .724.

[Blackjack]

If Dozier gets traded and Polanco plays the rest of this year and next, and flops (or gets hurt), whos next? Who plays second? Not trying to be negative here, just curious, because I do think that Dozier should be traded - for starting pitching!!!

 

I think Plouffe gets traded first, and soon, to make room for Sano.

[stringer bell]

 

FWIW, Dozier's OPS now sits at .724.

Also, FWIW Dozier's lifetime OPS is .724 and his OBP (supposedly the "big brother" in the computation of OPS) is the second best of his career. His nice June has lifted this season to pretty close to what we should expect from him.

 

What has changed is the number of outstanding second baseman in baseball, particularly in the AL.

[Rosterman]

Dozier can only increase his trade value if he goes on a hot streak. But if you look at him, unless you are really killing to get a second baseman, he will be an expensive option come 2018. But if you trade for him in 2016...you can still carry him into next season and hope he is worthwhile in the long run, or maybe even flip him again. That's baseball. You jsut need to find someone willing to take on the salary against salary of other similar options.

[Jham]

 

Absolutely.  If Dozier plays well, flip him if you can.  Let Polanco fill his shoes at 2nd.  Then you have a nucleus of Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, all about in the same age range.  All under team control for a while. 

 

I'm not sure if that makes me feel better or worse...  

[stringer bell]

I'm not in favor of having a whole team about the same age or experience. All the players would expensive at the same time and I do believe a mix of veterans and young players is better on the field as well.

[h2oface]

The thing that bothers me the most about Dozier is that he has never learned to keep his glove one the runner when tagging them

With replay, there is never a need to show the umpire your glove with the ball in it. He constantly misses an out as the runner slides off the base because he has to show the umpire his glove. Just stupid.

[wsnydes]

 

I'm going to partially disagree. Maybe my rose-colored glasses...that I thought I lost or smashed to bits, can't remember now...we're actually on top of my head and slipped down to my nose again, but I don't see this as an impossibility.

1* I'm not convinced Ryan will be running the show next year. Exiting on his own, or making the appearance of such, this traumatic season and 4 out of 5 poor ones, I really think we may be looking at impending changes. Because...

2* Despite knocks against ownership, the Twins brand and reputation is not looking so good these days. Ryan himself, about a month ago, actually made some honest and pointed comments as to ownerships disapproval and his failures, and how it was up to him to try to "convince" ownership he could right things. Except for a reported interview with a pretty sharp 11 yo, which we have to discount don't we, ownership has been, first time I can recall, publicly displeased with what is going on.

I like Dozier. He's been one of my favorite players the last few years, and he's also young enough to be part of the rebuild. But then I look at Polanco, who I've been watching as close as Sano and Kepler since their signings, and I just wonder how you CAN'T trade Dozier to make room for him. SS has Escobar and Vargas for the next year or two until Gordon and/or Vielma are ready. And we're OK there.

It almost absurd common sense to trade Dozier at this point, or soon.

Completely agree.  Unfortunately, with this FO even the most absurdly obvious of moves is something that we can't bank on happening or even attempted.  At this point, very little surprises me with the FO.