Will Brian Dozier's contract turn into an asset?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Seems a bit high, considering what we got for Span who had less guaranteed cash and more team control,  and arguably better recent performance than Dozier considering defense.

 

Perhaps, I'm guessing just a bit. Span had some concussion concerns though as well. There was more risk with him. 

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier is fine here for what? To help them only lose 80 or so games next year (that would be a 20 game improvement, give or take, probably)?

 

How do you keep Dozier and Polanco, next year, and not have it be like Arcia this year? That's the question....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perhaps, I'm guessing just a bit. Span had some concussion concerns though as well. There was more risk with him.

Span's hiting for the year-plus after his concussion was virtually identical to his hitting for the last year-plus before the concussion. I think he was a pretty minimal risk in that regard by the time of the trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Span's hiting for the year-plus after his concussion was virtually identical to his hitting for the last year-plus before the concussion. I think he was a pretty minimal risk in that regard by the time of the trade.

 

Not quite so sure.  He had posted OPS values of .737,.687, and .679 in his three seasons prior.  That's pretty MEH for a CF and he was 3 seasons removed from his .807 and .809 OPS years.  His first year in Washington wasn't that great either.  Hardly a sure thing.  The big thing was his cheap contract to go with a floor that was league average and a ceiling that was much better. 

 

As I said, I was spit balling it a bit on Dozier, but I'd certainly be asking something like that. If Dozier's start was just him needing to adjust a bit, he's going to have some pretty decent months.  He's well above average as a 2B on a 2.5 year contract.  That has extreme value to a contender with a decent window and a hole at 2nd. 

[jimmer]

Span's last season with the Twins, he had a 3.4 WAR.  Then he had a 3.4 WAR with the Nats his first year with them.

[ashbury]

Terry Ryan mentioned a few years ago that top shelf SP once it his AA is pretty much unattainable.  I think that is probably a high return to ask.  Same with C.  You're going to sacrifice on upside if that's what you want.  I'm not against that, but the return might not be quite as much as people want.  If you want upside, you take on more risk (think Alex Meyer for Denard Span type of risk).  The player won't be close.  I'm not against that, but if this team is honestly assessing that they won't be in it for 2 1/2 years, then I take the upside, even if it is a few years away. 

An option rarely mentioned here is to package the veteran with a prospect, to net a better prospect than for the vet alone.

 

Pitching is always what teams want, so how about Dozier plus the other team's choice among prospect starters (except for 3 or 5 that we label off-limits) in exchange for their top-100 caliber prospect starter. Or a second, even lower, prospect of ours to sweeten it (since of course we no longer have Duensing). Maybe a lottery ticket prospect from them, so as to reduce slightly the pressure on the guy we get.

 

They pick someone they happen to like better than we do, perhaps, and in essence it becomes a "challenge trade", a starter for a starter plus Dozier thrown in, which requires some guts because the prospect you give up could always surprise everyone and turn out better than the blue chipper.

 

It comes down to how highly you esteem your own scouts and talent evaluators. Terry's a scouting guy, and I wish he had the confidence in his own team to pull trades like this.

[markos]

 

Dozier is fine here for what? To help them only lose 80 or so games next year (that would be a 20 game improvement, give or take, probably)?

 

How do you keep Dozier and Polanco, next year, and not have it be like Arcia this year? That's the question....

I think Polanco's fate will depend more on Nunez than Dozier. If Nunez is traded, it should be easy to keep Polanco on the roster fulltime next year. It might be hard to get him 500 PAs, but they've given Nunez 200+ both of the past two years even with Eduardo Escobar as the primary backup infielder both seasons. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think Polanco's fate will depend more on Nunez than Dozier. If Nunez is traded, it should be easy to keep Polanco on the roster fulltime next year. It might be hard to get him 500 PAs, but they've given Nunez 200+ both of the past two years even with Eduardo Escobar as the primary backup infielder both seasons. 

 

Keeping him on the roster isn't the goal.  Playing him is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Keeping him on the roster isn't the goal.  Playing him is.

Yep. Going into the season, I said I wanted to see more of Polanco before handing him a job.

 

Well, so far so good. In ~200 PAs between MLB and AAA, he has an OPS close to .850. Now, I'd like to see him continue to play every day for a few more weeks but the second either Nunez or Dozier is gone, he needs to be in Minnesota, playing as often as possible.

 

Though, obviously, it will be much easier to play him if Dozier is traded. 

[kab21]

I am willing to trade Dozier for a good prospect package. For example the top 100 prospect and a couple of lottery tickets. If that doesn't happen then I have no problem benching either Eduardo to play Polanco at SS.

 

I understand that 2B is probably his ideal position but he has decisively played more SS than 2B the last two seasons. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am willing to trade Dozier for a good prospect package. For example the top 100 prospect and a couple of lottery tickets. If that doesn't happen then I have no problem benching either Eduardo to play Polanco at SS.

 

I understand that 2B is probably his ideal position but he has decisively played more SS than 2B the last two seasons. 

Dozier isn't the type of guy you move "just because" (eg. Trevor Plouffe) but any decent offer should receive strong consideration. It's unlikely Dozier's value will be higher at next year's deadline (though it might be appealing to someone this offseason if Dozier continues to nudge his OPS upward through the season).

[laloesch]

If the right deal came along for Dozier, couldn't Escobar, Nunez & Rosario platoon 2nd until Polanco is ready to take over?  Rosario was a 2nd baseman in the minors.  

[wsnydes]

 

If the right deal came along for Dozier, couldn't Escobar, Nunez & Rosario platoon 2nd until Polanco is ready to take over?  Rosario was a 2nd baseman in the minors.  

If they don't think Polanco is ready to take over at this point, they've screwed him similarly to Arcia.  He's out of options.  There's one sure way to find out what Polanco can do in the majors though.

 

Rosario didn't stick at 2B either.

[jorgenswest]

Another way to look at options...

 

This is his last opportunity to develop in the field and at the plate in AAA. The Twins blow that opportunity calling him and finding out he can't play 2B or he needs more time to develop plate discipline. He can't go back next year.

 

I would play Polanco in AAA. I would play in at several positions. I would push him to be aggressive trying to steal bases (even if it cost games). I would bunt and hit&run more often than strategy would call for it. I would work hard with him on the holes in his swing helping him recognize how pitchers will take advantage of them.

 

The Twins have had too many guys come to the majors without significant time in AA and AAA. I get it with guys like Buxton and Sano who are among the best prospects in the games. Players like Polanco, Arcia and Kepler had a single winter where they appeared on a top 100 list. They are not top prospects. They need those 1000 plate appearances in the upper minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another way to look at options...

 

This is his last opportunity to develop in the field and at the plate in AAA. The Twins blow that opportunity calling him and finding out he can't play 2B or he needs more time to develop plate discipline. He can't go back next year.

 

We're worried about Polanco's plate discipline now? Or -- gasp! -- letting him polish his defense at the MLB level? Evidence suggests Polanco will be a far better rookie than Dozier was, on both sides of the ball. I'd rather find that out now so I would better know if I can deal Dozier.

[jorgenswest]

We're worried about Polanco's plate discipline now? Or -- gasp! -- letting him polish his defense at the MLB level? Evidence suggests Polanco will be a far better rookie than Dozier was, on both sides of the ball. I'd rather find that out now so I would better know if I can deal Dozier.

Of the 11 players with over 100 PAs for Rochester this year Polanco ranks 8th in strike out rate and 7th in walk rate. Compared to his teammates he is below the median in both. So yes, I think he can still improve in his plate discipline. I also think it will benefit the Twins in the future by getting more time at SS, 3B and OF. I know there preference is to throw guys into new positions once they hit the major leagues. They also like to throw bunts and hit&runs at guys in the majors where they didn't develop that skill in the minors. They have a few months of option left to develop Polanco. They should use them.

 

The Twins have pushed so many guys up to the majors with fewer than 1000 (or even 700) PAs in AA or AAA. It is hard to find examples where that path has worked for them. It will not hurt his development to play more in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dozier was rushed too, but was allowed to learn and adjust in MLB. Took him about a year. The MLB adjustment is one that isn't necessarily helped by AAA at-bats. And I think the problem with the Twins development strategy probably goes deeper than the number of AAA reps these guys get.

 

So what is your plan for Dozier and Polanco this winter and next spring? Is there any level of AAA performance that would make you trust him with a starting job next spring?

 

It is not about hurting Polanco's development, it is about figuring out what you have in him while you are at critical junctures with Plouffe and other infielders.

[jorgenswest]

Dozier was rushed too, but was allowed to learn and adjust in MLB. Took him about a year. The MLB adjustment is one that isn't necessarily helped by AAA at-bats. And I think the problem with the Twins development strategy probably goes deeper than the number of AAA reps these guys get.

So what is your plan for Dozier and Polanco this winter and next spring? Is there any level of AAA performance that would make you trust him with a starting job next spring?

A partial year anywhere shouldn't lead to trust. He could come up and put up slash stats like Santana or Rosario or he could put up slash stats like Hicks and it wouldn't tell us much about next year.

 

I would be playing him all over the field in AAA. If they prepare him as only a 2B, that really limits him. Teams don't carry a back up 2B. If he is going to be a top third 2B, he is going to have an wRC+ in the 115-120 range. He didn't do that last year in his time at AA/AAA. He is doing it this year in a partial season of AAA.

 

So my plan is to give him 400+ PAs in a utlity role next year and listen to offers on Dozier. The PAs grow based on his performance. Move Dozier if the return is someone who will be an asset to the 2017 major league team. Don't move him just to clear space. The Twins are getting median performance from the bats of their 2Bs this year. They have many other spots to try to get to that median or better.

 

The Twins probably won't go that way. Nobody is buying tickets or tuning in to watch Dozier pull the ball foul. It generates much more interest and excitement to call up the next prospect.

[DocBauer]

While how great his value on the market truly is, I believe Plouffe is tradable for something. Or part of a package. There are a few teams that would seem to need help at 1B or 3B. While a hot streak during this down year would make him more attractive, his history indicates he's at least solid and productive overall. Over the next 20-30 days, if not now, his value may grow.

 

I'm not as anxious to trade Dozier, and have said so, but I think you have to strongly considering moving him. Forget cutting salary, it opens a spot for Polanco, and he has the ability, solo or packaged with someone else.

 

Sooner or later you have to make room for Polanco don't you? Doesn't pure baseball logic dictate that you develop a quality prospect and eventually play him? Is another team really going to want him, no matter his overall talent and potential, when they would be FORCED to keep him on their roster?

 

And honestly, can he and Dozier exist on the same roster? You'd obviously have to let Santana go, probably move Escobar or Nunez, and you'd still have Beresford in AAA potentially. But would it make sense to have him linger on the bench, no options, as a utility player?

 

It just seems push has to come to shove.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are other possibilities than Polanco putting up a batting line like Santana, Rosario, or Hicks. He could put together a performance that is sustainably good. As fans of recent Twins clubs, we tend to forget that is a possibility that does sometimes happen.

[ashbury]

I am confidently predicting that Polanco is the one that gets traded in favor of Dozier.

Because, one is a valuable yet fungible commodity to baseball execs, and one is not?

[Pardon My Dinger]

Because, one is a valuable yet fungible commodity to baseball execs, and one is not?

Yes. Because I have learned to expect the unfathomable.